2023 LB Draft Prospects Group Assessments

[*psychdoctor*]

Isaac Curtis The Real #85 Should start the first response to this thread. He will start each thread of all group assessments for 2023 draft prospects. He will post numbers, caps, players very helpful information. After Isaac post his numbers, then and only then can any board member list there prospect and synopsis of a players strengths, weaknesses, and why you feel he would fit this Bengal team.

I think it would help to project round, player they would replace, strengths and weakness.

[*Synric*]

Bump these back up.

DeMarvin Overshown had a good Senior Bowl week and actually played pretty well for his second year at stack linebacker. Daiyan Henley also looked good really good.

[WVUHomer]

(02-04-2023, 12:03 PM)Synric Wrote: Bump these back up.

DeMarvin Overshown had a good Senior Bowl week and actually played pretty well for his second year at stack linebacker. Daiyan Henley also looked good really good.

Good to hear that. My biggest fear for him is he'd be Jefferson 2.0

[Mike M (the other one)]

Why not get Pratt's replacement with..... NC State Drake Thomas?

[NATI BENGALS]

Ivan Pace Jr looks like the kind of LB you don't want to play against. He is not a nice man on the football field.

His height could hurt him 5'10" but he is stout at 230. A good 40 time will probably make him some money. He sure plays like an AFC North LB.

I want to keep Pratt, but it won't be easy. And we may already have his replacement on the roster. But it feels like we have to draft a LB.

[casear2727]

(02-21-2023, 03:37 AM)NATI BENGALS Wrote: Ivan Pace Jr looks like the kind of LB you don't want to play against. He is not a nice man on the football field.

His height could hurt him 5'10" but he is stout at 230. A good 40 time will probably make him some money. He sure plays like an AFC North LB.

I want to keep Pratt, but it won't be easy. And we may already have his replacement on the roster. But it feels like we have to draft a LB.

Ivan is probably the hardest hitting thumper in the draft.  But, he is likely relegated to blitzing and short yardage situations, his coverage skills are not up to par.

[BIGDADDYFROMCINCINNATI]

If Pratt goes, I'd like to see us get Trenton Simpson- Clemson in Round 2

[*psychdoctor*]

Give me Drew Sanders. I think he can move around and provide quarterback pressure

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

Please forgive my absence. I needed a break after the KC loss. Will try to do one a day on these.

[*psychdoctor*]

(02-21-2023, 07:44 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: Please forgive my absence. I needed a break after the KC loss. Will try to do one a day on these.

It's all good, no worries. 

[BIGDADDYFROMCINCINNATI]

(02-21-2023, 03:53 PM)psychdoctor Wrote: Give me Drew Sanders. I think he can move around and provide quarterback pressure

Drew Sanders is interesting, he's 6'5 but only weighs 232 lbs.  The scouting report says he'd be perfect in a Tampa 2 defense.  It sounds to me he's built like more of a Safety like David Fulcher--esque.  Wasn't he like 6'4 and 235 lbs? 

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

Apologies for the delay. I needed a break after the KC loss.

Adomitis re-signing is now incorporated in cap/FA pistings from this point on. But does not move the needle much. $870k is near as cheap as it gets and he will be a Restricted FA (ERFA) next year.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cincinnati-bengals/cal-adomitis-77611/

General stuff first. Some of the contracts details on spitrac have moved slightly and Adomitis being signed incorporated.

I. 2023 Bengals General FA/Cap Situation

# of Starters who are FA = 7
Offense = 1. Hurst
Defense = 4. Bates, Bell, Pratt, Apple.
Special = 3. Taylor (PR), T. Williams (KR)

# of Key Reserves who are FAs = 4.
Offense = 3. Perine, Scharping, Wilcox (Restricted)
Defense = 1. Flowers.

With 42 guys signed, we have an estimated $182,889,784 in slaries and $619,060 in Dead Cap for 2023. For total commitments so far of $183,508,844. With a projected cap of $225 million and $2,498,443 in rollover cap from last year, we project to have $44,608,659 in cap space to fill out our roster. Re-sign our own guys. Sign new guys. Pay draft picks. With the exception of Ben Brown, no PS squad guys are included in that 42.

And that sounds like a lot of money, and it is. But remember, we always leave a cushion to sign other players to the 53 when guys get hurt during the season & go on IR. Usualy $6-$10 mil. Our FA's this year are either due significant raises (Pratt, Hurst), already making big money (Bates, Bell), or likely to be significantly above vet min level (Apple, Perine, Flowers, Scharping).


II. Looming Cap Issues

And of course the issue of the looming raises for Burrow & Chase. While they won't hit until 2025 for Burrow and 2026 for Chase, they are gonna represent a large increase over what they currently make & change our cap space going forward. Burrow could go from $11 mil to $50 mil, and Chase from $10 mil to $25-30 mil. Guys who sign deals this year (or next) will have their contracts overlap with these new deals. Yes, the cap will go up as well, it went up around $17 mil for 2023, but that still falls short of covering this. More so when other rookie scale guys are up. FWIW, here is the FA schedule for guys who could command significant salary.

2023: Pratt (rookie), Bates, Bell, Hurst, Apple.
2024: Higgins (rookie), L. Wilson (rookie), Reader, Mixon (Team Option), J. Williams, Boyd, Awuzie.
2025: Burrow (rookie), Hendrickson, Mixon, BJ Hill, Collins, Hilton, Karras
2026: Chase (rookie); Hubbard, Cappa

Also remember that as the cap goes up, the number it takes to retain good players also increases. And I am mindful that creative contracts can reduce the cap hit for Burrow & Chase & others. And for some, we may part ways before the FA year if the salary is high, but the perfromance & Dead Cap number is low.

It certainly behooves us to line up possible replacements in rookie scale deals for some of our higher priced players who are not performing to contract, who we may not be able to pay again, or for rookie scale guys who may be too expensive to retain.

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

Position Group #7: Linebacker

I. 2022 Roster Status:
Currently on 53 = 6
Currently on IR = 0
Currently on PS = 1
---------------
Current starters: L. Wilson, Pratt
Rostered reserves: Davis-Gaither, Bailey, Bachie, C. Johnston
Injured/PUP: None
Practice Squad: K. Jones
------------

II. 2023 Roster Status:

A. Signed = 3. Cap Hit: Dead Cap; FA Year/Type

1. L. Wilson (LB#1): $3,031,199; $289,199; 2024 UFA
2. A. Davis-Gaither (LB#3): $1,214,378; $204,378; 2024 UFA
3. M. Bailey (LB#4): $1,038,424; $28,424; 2024 UFA
--------------
4. K. Jones (PS): $870,000; $0;

B. Unsigned = 2. 2022 Cap Hit; FA Type

1. G. Pratt (LB#2): $2,803,221; UFA
2. C. Johnston (LB#5-6): $825,000; UFA
3. J. Bachie (LB#6-5): $480,000; UFA
---------

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

Analysis:

This all comes down to Pratt. How much of a raise does ye merit and do we want to pay it? He was REAL good last year. Last two POs and last regular season. An 80.6 from PFF is outstanding and the eye test confirmed it.

ADG and Bailey both performed pretty well in somewhat limited snaps (227 for ASD, 58 for Bailey). So thete is some depth. Bachie (13) and Johnston (1) were special teams guys. Johnston's 315 ST snaps lead the team. Both ADG & Bailey played more ST snaps than Bachie.

It is certainly possible ee could carry 5 guys instead of 6 here. Of the guys eho played D last year, 3 are signed. All 3 are FA's next year, with L. Wilson the biggie. Which impacts this year. Do we pay BOTH Wilson & Pratt? One? I cannot think it will be neither. Both are too productive.

If we do not pay Pratt, I'd think a day 2 LB would be in order. Though if we think ADG can fill in, maybe day 3. And that is certainly a possibility. I hate to swap proven for unproven when we are contending, but it may have to be.

For me, I'd pay Bell & Pratt first. Then see about Hurst, Perine, & Apple. I let Bates walk & start Hill. If I have to trim salary, I start with Mixon. Though there are some smaller moves that could be made: B. Wilson makes $2 mil with $0 dead cap. Tupou makes over $1.5 mil and is $250k dead. I would not cut Collins before we had a replacement. And Adeniji/Smith + backup G are where we need upgrades more.

LB for me is not a round 1 option. There are not a lot of Rd1 LBs according to most mocks. Simpson, Sanders, & Campbell ate the names I hear most often. Fringe first or 2nd. I think we have needs at higher value positions (CB, OT, WR depth) or more acute needs (TE, S) elsewhere.

Worst case is Pratt walks, ADG starts, and we draft a LB day 2-3 and use the money saved to bolster the team elsewhere. I can live with that.

Best case is Pratt is back on a reasonable deal.

[*psychdoctor*]

(02-23-2023, 03:43 PM)BIGDADDYFROMCINCINNATI Wrote: Drew Sanders is interesting, he's 6'5 but only weighs 232 lbs.  The scouting report says he'd be perfect in a Tampa 2 defense.  It sounds to me he's built like more of a Safety like David Fulcher--esque.  Wasn't he like 6'4 and 235 lbs? 

Fulcher was huge and lanky.  Drew Sanders would be in subpackage around line of scrimmage but can bring it.  Another guy I like is that safety Skinner.  Both can easily be disguised in blitz situation.  

[casear2727]

(02-21-2023, 03:53 PM)psychdoctor Wrote: Give me Drew Sanders. I think he can move around and provide quarterback pressure

(02-23-2023, 03:43 PM)BIGDADDYFROMCINCINNATI Wrote: Drew Sanders is interesting, he's 6'5 but only weighs 232 lbs.  The scouting report says he'd be perfect in a Tampa 2 defense.  It sounds to me he's built like more of a Safety like David Fulcher--esque.  Wasn't he like 6'4 and 235 lbs? 

(02-24-2023, 05:45 AM)psychdoctor Wrote: Fulcher was huge and lanky.  Drew Sanders would be in subpackage around line of scrimmage but can bring it.  Another guy I like is that safety Skinner.  Both can easily be disguised in blitz situation.  

Sanders is a total stud, my 31 LB in the draft.  He is much closer to Edge rusher than he is safety.

[casear2727]

(02-21-2023, 01:18 PM)BIGDADDYFROMCINCINNATI Wrote: If Pratt goes, I'd like to see us get Trenton Simpson- Clemson in Round 2

Simpson is projected to go in the 1st Round, #60 is bit ambitious.  

[BIGDADDYFROMCINCINNATI]

(02-24-2023, 08:14 AM)casear2727 Wrote: Simpson is projected to go in the 1st Round, #60 is bit ambitious.  

Pff mock has Simpson at #59 and I've ran it a handful of times this morning and I'm getting OT-D. Jones at 28, LB-Simpson at 60, and FS-J Battle at 92.

Dayian Henley is ranked #38, and Sander's #95

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

We have re-signed Joe Bachie..Whether he is LB#5 (Pratt back) or LB#4 (Pratt leaves) heading into the draft is up in the air.

Wilson, ADG, Bailey, & Bachie in stripes.

Pratt & Johnston FAs.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/bengals-re-sign-lb-joe-bachie-and-cb-jalen-davis/ar-AA18pMbd

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

This position analysis needed updating after the first wave of FA. Pratt and Bachie both re-signed. Johnston remains unsigned. We carried 6 last year.

Wilson is eligible for his extension, but I would think Burrow's would be first, then Higgins'. 

Position Group #7: Linebacker


I.  2023 Roster Status:

A. Signed = 6. Cap Hit: Dead Cap; FA Year/Type

1. L. Wilson (LB#1): $3,031,199; $289,199; 2024 UFA 
2. G. Pratt (LB#2): $5,403,908; $7,000,000; 2026 UFA
3. A. Davis-Gaither (LB#3): $1,214,378; $204,378; 2024 UFA
4. M. Bailey (LB#4): $1,038,424; $28,424; 2024 UFA 
5. J. Bachie (LB#5): $1,160,000; $75,000; 2024 UFA
--------------
6. K. Jones (PS): $870,000; $0; FA

B. Unsigned = 1. 2022 Cap Hit; FA Type

1. C. Johnston (LB#5-6): $825,000; UFA
---------