Michael Mayer Falls To 26 In Latest PFF Mock!

[casear2727]

(02-10-2023, 06:03 PM)WVUHomer Wrote: It may be just me, but I don't like the idea of Washington at all. He has the size and whatnot but the dude (to my knowledge) never started in college. Yeah, I know he was behind Bowers but I just can't see ever spending a 1st on a college back up. Just grab a OT and teach them how to catch at that point.

Now that I've upset the floor with my TE takes. I take my leave. 

I'm all for OT over TE, but yes Washington could fit very well for us.  We were extremely predictable with Sample in the game (run) or Hurst (pass), kind of like we are with Stanley at WR.

Washington aleviates that concern and inline is a very good people mover.  With Burrow's touch and this guy's size he could be a tremendous red zone threat as well. There is a reason he is projected so high.

And we are not above drafting guys without college starts, Evans started a total  of 5 games in college, I know 7th round.  But guys like Pacheko shows how stupid that decision was.... (now I've upset the floor).

[BFritz21]

(02-10-2023, 05:57 PM)ochocincos Wrote: For the short routes, 100% correct.
It's about twitch and running correct routes to cause that separation.

What some people want those is a TE who is more than just a guy who can get open short, but someone with the threat to actually go deep and get YAC with speed. That is something rarely seen with a TE, even the good ones.

How many tight ends can actually go deep and win with speed? 

He can go deep and make contested catches and can beat out defenders with his physicality and moves. 

[WVUHomer]

(02-10-2023, 06:17 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: How many tight ends can actually go deep and win with speed? 

He can go deep and make contested catches and can beat out defenders with his physicality and moves. 

If you're asking how many TEs win with contest catches? I'd say the majority of them otherwise they wouldn't be TEs. Kinda goes with being less athletic and taller.

[*ochocincos*]

(02-10-2023, 06:17 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: How many tight ends can actually go deep and win with speed? 

He can go deep and make contested catches and can beat out defenders with his physicality and moves. 

Very few, but that's the point.
I think of TEs that could realistically have like a 12+ YPR that they are right up there with the top WRs as a receiving threat.
Travis Kelce
George Kittle
Darren Waller
Mark Andrews
Kyle Pitts
Arguably TJ Hockenson

If you're getting 50 receptions but only putting up 10 YPR or less, you're only going to have ~500 yards. That's not dynamic enough to be among the elite TEs.

Again, I'm not saying Mayer is bad by any means. I just don't see a Top 5 TE in receiving yards kinda guy.
I see more of the Pat Freiermuth or Noah Fant style player that's well-rounded who is really good at short and intermediate routes, can block some, but not really a home run threat kinda guy.
There's nothing wrong with that, just that they won't usually be up there in discussion as one of the best TEs in the league.

[casear2727]

(02-10-2023, 06:17 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: How many tight ends can actually go deep and win with speed? 

He can go deep and make contested catches and can beat out defenders with his physicality and moves. 

It's like you are confusing Mayer's athletic ability with Kyle Pitts... and he only averaged 35 yds per game this year.

[BFritz21]

(02-10-2023, 10:20 PM)casear2727 Wrote: It's like you are confusing Mayer's athletic ability with Kyle Pitts... and he only averaged 35 yds per game this year.

I'm not confusing his athletic ability with anyone......... I'm saying he has decent athletic ability and he finds ways to get open and makes contested catches.

[casear2727]

(02-10-2023, 10:22 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: I'm not confusing his athletic ability with anyone......... I'm saying he has decent athletic ability and he finds ways to get open and makes contested catches.

Bro, you were saying this:

"I think he can beat DBs with physicality to make catches and there's no way that linebackers can stay with him."

You tried to make this guy out to be Randy Moss.

[BFritz21]

(02-10-2023, 11:09 PM)casear2727 Wrote: Bro, you were saying this:

"I think he can beat DBs with physicality to make catches and there's no way that linebackers can stay with him."

You tried to make this guy out to be Randy Moss.

I’m not saying that but I am saying that he will be very very difficult for linebackers to cover.

[WVUHomer]

(02-10-2023, 06:44 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Very few, but that's the point.
I think of TEs that could realistically have like a 12+ YPR that they are right up there with the top WRs as a receiving threat.
Travis Kelce
George Kittle
Darren Waller
Mark Andrews
Kyle Pitts
Arguably TJ Hockenson

If you're getting 50 receptions but only putting up 10 YPR or less, you're only going to have ~500 yards. That's not dynamic enough to be among the elite TEs.

Again, I'm not saying Mayer is bad by any means. I just don't see a Top 5 TE in receiving yards kinda guy.
I see more of the Pat Freiermuth or Noah Fant style player that's well-rounded who is really good at short and intermediate routes, can block some, but not really a home run threat kinda guy.
There's nothing wrong with that, just that they won't usually be up there in discussion as one of the best TEs in the league.

This isn't targeted towards you OC but using your list to make a point.

I started thinking of this post again today. Of your top 10 list, only 2 were 1st rounders. And of those, only Pitts showed anything as a rookie (if I remember correctly) and he was a freak athlete. 

Remaining on that list, 2 3rds, 1 5th and 1 6th. If anything, this shows that you shouldn't be spending a premium pick on the position. Hell, Hockenson was traded IN the same division for a 2nd. TEs have to just be superstars to be worth what it would take to get Mayer.

Once my son goes down for his nap, I may map how many starters and back ups are in the NFL and what round they were drafted as better empirical data.

[WVUHomer]

(02-11-2023, 03:48 PM)WVUHomer Wrote: This isn't targeted towards you OC but using your list to make a point.

I started thinking of this post again today. Of your top 10 list, only 2 were 1st rounders. And of those, only Pitts showed anything as a rookie (if I remember correctly) and he was a freak athlete. 

Remaining on that list, 2 3rds, 1 5th and 1 6th. If anything, this shows that you shouldn't be spending a premium pick on the position. Hell, Hockenson was traded IN the same division for a 2nd. TEs have to just be superstars to be worth what it would take to get Mayer.

Once my son goes down for his nap, I may map how many starters and back ups are in the NFL and what round they were drafted as better empirical data.

Following up, of the top 14 (per PFF to make my life easy to figure out who starters were on teams and them having Gronk in top 15 still).

2 in 1st round, 5 in 2nd round, 3 in 3rd round, 2 in fourth, 1 in 5th and 1 in 6th.

So, 2/3 seems like the sweet spot to look.

Thank you for coming to my Ted Talk on this matter.

[TecmoBengals]

Brad, when another team calls his name on draft day you're going to experience the pain we all felt when they lost the Super Bowl last year and the AFC Championship game this year.





I'd be good with him as our 1st round pick this season. I don't think it happens.

[TKUHL]

If Mayer is such a sure prospect that makes us the most dangerous offense in the league, then we should do what ever it takes to get him. Always hated draft day arguments where a guy sliding to say 28th is a pipe dream, but not worth moving up 10 spots. If that’s your guy then get him.

[casear2727]

(02-12-2023, 01:17 PM)TKUHL Wrote: If Mayer is such a sure prospect that makes us the most dangerous offense in the league, then we should do what ever it takes to get him. Always hated draft day arguments where a guy sliding to say 28th is a pipe dream, but not worth moving up 10 spots. If that’s your guy then get him.

Moving up in the 1st round makes zero sense for us for a long time unless it is for a sure thing on the oline. 

We need as many draft picks as possible, not give them away, especially for a TE.  A 10 spot jump costs us at minimum a 1st and 2nd and most likely a later round pick.  Now if you change this narrative from 10 spots for a TE to a Paris Johnson.... it could be more doable.

[*SHRacerX*]

(02-10-2023, 03:56 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Agreed that Mayer isn't overly fast for a TE. He might do well in the agility drills though, from what some speculate.

Per this source, the average speed and agility times for a TE:
40 - 4.73
shuttle - 4.41
3-cone - 7.1

https://hortonbarbell.com/2022-nfl-combine-result-averages-by-position/

From PFT's scouting report - https://www.profootballnetwork.com/michael-mayer-te-notre-dame-nfl-draft-scouting-report/


Ultimately, I really want to see how Mayer runs at the Combine/Pro Day.
The above metrics are good baselines for him.


Here are Kyle Pitts' metrics for comparison:
40 - 4.44
shuttle - 4.35
3-cone - 7.12

After all is said and done, ask yourself what he does better than Hurst and then ask yourself if you want to spend a first round pick on a guy that we could have for probably $4.5 million.  

[*ochocincos*]

(02-13-2023, 09:55 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: After all is said and done, ask yourself what he does better than Hurst and then ask yourself if you want to spend a first round pick on a guy that we could have for probably $4.5 million.  

Hurst was a 1st rounder, had solid production in college, and ran just above average on the 40 and shuttle. His 3-cone was just slightly below average.
Mayer is about the same size but has had better production in college.
We'll see how he does in the Combine drills to better determine his athleticism in comparison to Hurst.

When it comes to cost, I would 100% jump for Hurst if he signed for $5 mill or less. I think $6-7 mill APY is fair for him. We did see Uzomah get $8 mill APY last year, after all.
When looking at the 28th pick from last year (Devonte Wyatt), his contract was 4 years, $12.86 mill.
So the 28th pick will still likely end up cheaper than re-signing Hurst.

With that said, I'm completely fine re-signing Hurst and drafting a TE later to be a backup.

[TecmoBengals]

(02-12-2023, 01:43 PM)casear2727 Wrote: Moving up in the 1st round makes zero sense for us for a long time unless it is for a sure thing on the oline. 

We need as many draft picks as possible, not give them away, especially for a TE.  A 10 spot jump costs us at minimum a 1st and 2nd and most likely a later round pick.  Now if you change this narrative from 10 spots for a TE to a Paris Johnson.... it could be more doable.

This is 100% the best take. There is no need to move up for Mayer or any player unless the trade-up is to get a generational talent (which are rare in NFL drafts).

[WVUHomer]

(02-13-2023, 11:00 AM)ochocincos Wrote: Hurst was a 1st rounder, had solid production in college, and ran just above average on the 40 and shuttle. His 3-cone was just slightly below average.
Mayer is about the same size but has had better production in college.
We'll see how he does in the Combine drills to better determine his athleticism in comparison to Hurst.

When it comes to cost, I would 100% jump for Hurst if he signed for $5 mill or less. I think $6-7 mill APY is fair for him. We did see Uzomah get $8 mill APY last year, after all.
When looking at the 28th pick from last year (Devonte Wyatt), his contract was 4 years, $12.86 mill.
So the 28th pick will still likely end up cheaper than re-signing Hurst.

With that said, I'm completely fine re-signing Hurst and drafting a TE later to be a backup.

I still don't see the need/value of drafting a TE unless we have the RT spot shored up and depth of the defense as well (CB with Chido recovering).

I know we despise their huts but why not take a page out of the Ravens playback and get TEs repetitively in the lower rounds and develop (Andrews and Likely). Yes, i know Hurst was a 1st for them but he didn't even make it through his first contract for them.

[*ochocincos*]

(02-13-2023, 12:07 PM)WVUHomer Wrote: I still don't see the need/value of drafting a TE unless we have the RT spot shored up and depth of the defense as well (CB with Chido recovering).

I know we despise their huts but why not take a page out of the Ravens playback and get TEs repetitively in the lower rounds and develop (Andrews and Likely). Yes, i know Hurst was a 1st for them but he didn't even make it through his first contract for them.

It depends on what type of TE you want.
Andrews went a round later than Hurst because Andrews was less experienced/capable as a blocker.
He was the superior pass catcher though.
And the Ravens ultimately decided to have their offense focus around a pass catching TE, so Andrews surpassed Hurst.

I don't think the Bengals should take a TE in the 1st round who needs work as a pass catcher, but we'd be fools to think they'd target a TE who isn't a good blocker.

So I think two-way TEs like Mayer, Darnell Washington, Sam LaPorta, or Luke Schoonmaker will appeal to the Bengals because they want their Bengals to be more than a big receiver.
We hear other TEs like Luke Musgrave and Dalton Kincaid as being in the 1st round conversation, but could they demonstrate enough to the Bengals to convince them they can block as well as be good receiving threats?
The Combine is something that is actually better catered to guys like Musgrave and Kincaid. If they can showcase their speed and agility, their value tends to go way up. 
Musgrave especially could be viewed as TE1 in the draft if he showcases his expected elite athletic ability.

Quote:Musgrave — the nephew of former NFL QB and long-time NFL coach Bill Musgrave — was a Feldman Freak this summer, with several numbers telling of potentially elite athleticism. Among those numbers: a 4.51 40-yard dash, a 36.5″ vertical, a 10’2″ broad jump, and a 4.21 agility time.

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/luke-musgrave-te-oregon-state-nfl-draft-scouting-report-2023/



I'd be ok waiting until Day 2 to address TE if the Bengals don't re-sign Hurst. I'm ok waiting even a bit later to get a TE2 if Hurst is re-signed.
What I am not sure about though is how set do the Bengals feel with Collins as the starting RT.
If they really do envision him as their long-term RT over the next 2 years, I don't think they'll spend a 1st rounder on a RT who is going to potentially ride the bench for 2 seasons.
If the possibility of the team moving on from Collins is higher, I could definitely see an OT drafted in Rd 1 or Rd 2.
Regardless, I might target someone like George Fant in FA who should be a reasonably cheap swing OT and spot starter at either OT position. He's turning 31 this Summer, so he's probably only got another couple years left. But he's played for Pollack before, has started at both OT positions and played reasonably well 2 of the past 3 years, and probably would like to play for a contender in his last leg of his career.
I do think there also needs to be IOL depth too. Scharping is probably going to sign elsewhere and honestly disappointed in his opportunity as a starter in CIN. Will Hernandez might be someone the Bengals can pick up for cheaper and challenge Volson for starting LG reps. He'd also be a good swing OG given he's had plenty of starting reps at both OG spots. 

[WVUHomer]

(02-13-2023, 03:22 PM)ochocincos Wrote: It depends on what type of TE you want.
Andrews went a round later than Hurst because Andrews was less experienced/capable as a blocker.
He was the superior pass catcher though.
And the Ravens ultimately decided to have their offense focus around a pass catching TE, so Andrews surpassed Hurst.

I don't think the Bengals should take a TE in the 1st round who needs work as a pass catcher, but we'd be fools to think they'd target a TE who isn't a good blocker.

So I think two-way TEs like Mayer, Darnell Washington, Sam LaPorta, or Luke Schoonmaker will appeal to the Bengals because they want their Bengals to be more than a big receiver.
We hear other TEs like Luke Musgrave and Dalton Kincaid as being in the 1st round conversation, but could they demonstrate enough to the Bengals to convince them they can block as well as be good receiving threats?
The Combine is something that is actually better catered to guys like Musgrave and Kincaid. If they can showcase their speed and agility, their value tends to go way up. 
Musgrave especially could be viewed as TE1 in the draft if he showcases his expected elite athletic ability.
https://www.profootballnetwork.com/luke-musgrave-te-oregon-state-nfl-draft-scouting-report-2023/



I'd be ok waiting until Day 2 to address TE if the Bengals don't re-sign Hurst. I'm ok waiting even a bit later to get a TE2 if Hurst is re-signed.
What I am not sure about though is how set do the Bengals feel with Collins as the starting RT.
If they really do envision him as their long-term RT over the next 2 years, I don't think they'll spend a 1st rounder on a RT who is going to potentially ride the bench for 2 seasons.
If the possibility of the team moving on from Collins is higher, I could definitely see an OT drafted in Rd 1 or Rd 2.
Regardless, I might target someone like George Fant in FA who should be a reasonably cheap swing OT and spot starter at either OT position. He's turning 31 this Summer, so he's probably only got another couple years left. But he's played for Pollack before, has started at both OT positions and played reasonably well 2 of the past 3 years, and probably would like to play for a contender in his last leg of his career.
I do think there also needs to be IOL depth too. Scharping is probably going to sign elsewhere and honestly disappointed in his opportunity as a starter in CIN. Will Hernandez might be someone the Bengals can pick up for cheaper and challenge Volson for starting LG reps. He'd also be a good swing OG given he's had plenty of starting reps at both OG spots. 

Andrews was a mid (i think mid) 3rd round (I know he went 3rd) pick. 

Agree they want their TE to be a capable blocker.

I can't see how they can consider LC a viable option to start and play well at RT. I'm not saying it will be pick 28 but it can't be Adeniji otherwise call the season a wipe.

LG could be a position to upgrade bit I still feel it's below RT and maybe even CB considering the depth and injury. If I was Duke, as it stands now, it'd be RT>CB>LG>TE (assuming talent levels agree with that route). Its why I feel TE won't be addressed until 3rd/4th unless our board is just absolutely devastated. I'd honestly just try to bring in a stop gap if Hurst goes to another team and draft two TEs in mid rounds to develop.

[*SHRacerX*]

(02-13-2023, 11:00 AM)ochocincos Wrote: Hurst was a 1st rounder, had solid production in college, and ran just above average on the 40 and shuttle. His 3-cone was just slightly below average.
Mayer is about the same size but has had better production in college.
We'll see how he does in the Combine drills to better determine his athleticism in comparison to Hurst.

When it comes to cost, I would 100% jump for Hurst if he signed for $5 mill or less. I think $6-7 mill APY is fair for him. We did see Uzomah get $8 mill APY last year, after all.
When looking at the 28th pick from last year (Devonte Wyatt), his contract was 4 years, $12.86 mill.
So the 28th pick will still likely end up cheaper than re-signing Hurst.

With that said, I'm completely fine re-signing Hurst and drafting a TE later to be a backup.

I am just completely opposed to the idea of drafting a TE (or RB, or G, or LB) in the first round unless there is a consensus belief that they will be the next Kelce, Henry, Thuney, or Micah Parsons.  None of the TEs in this class will ever be compared to Kelce. 

The second contracts for WRs, DEs, CBs, and OTs are so high now that it is critical that you get a few of them on rookie deals to keep the talent and the books aligned.  I know the Bengals drafted a S in the end of the first round last year, and I understand they really liked Hill as the heir apparent to Bates.

I am not saying there are no exceptions to that rule, but overall the Bengals currently have 1 OT on a rookie deal for one more year and will get around $12 million this next year.  They have one first round WR and one first pick in the second round WRs, both on rookie deals.  They have one CB on a rookie deal.  Second rounder.  I see almost no scenario where the Bengals aren't drafting an OT in the first round.

I would have TE behind OT, WR, CB, DE, and even DT, in terms of the Bengals draft priorities.  I know it is BPA, but you get what I am saying.   If there are four players that are equally rated as prospects that play TE, OT, CB, and DE....the TE would be at the end of the list each time.