Higgins Mock Trade. Would you?

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(02-04-2023, 09:15 PM)Bilbo Saggins Wrote: No. In fact if I'm running armchair GM exercises I start planning for a world where Ja'marr Chase may be priced into the stratosphere and I have to keep Tee as the #1.

That's a bad plan. Higgins has nowhere near the ceiling of Chase and has shown up on the injury report with 6 separate things the last 2 years. Over the last 5 years (college included) he has 3 separate ankle injuries and 4 separate hamstring injuries.

He's a #1 WR on a different team, but he's never going to be in the elite category like Jefferson, Chase, Adams, and Hill. Or before them it was J Jones, Hopkins, Thomas, and Brown. Guys who are on a whole different tier, with a pretty big gap between them and the rest of the true #1s.

[tms]

Great idea. I'd think long and hard about that one. Anderson's a tremendous prospect. If I could skip over his one or two (inevitable) developmental years, that would make the decision a lot easier. Our window's already wide open, we don't have much time to waste.

[QueenCity]

(02-04-2023, 10:03 PM)pally Wrote: You mean like this one that already exists?

http://thebengalsboard.com/Forum-Draft-Central

Discussion of Tee's contract and potential trade is a separate discussion from the draft even if a potential trade might include picks

Yes but lots of people just visit Jungle Noise... would get more traffic if they stickied it. 

[*bfine32*]

(02-04-2023, 10:03 PM)pally Wrote: You mean like this one that already exists?

http://thebengalsboard.com/Forum-Draft-Central

Discussion of Tee's contract and potential trade is a separate discussion from the draft even if a potential trade might include picks

Discussions concerning the 2023 NFL Draft should go in the Draft Forum. Not a sticky thread in JN. 

[Bilbo Saggins]

(02-04-2023, 10:20 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: That's a bad plan. Higgins has nowhere near the ceiling of Chase and has shown up on the injury report with 6 separate things the last 2 years. Over the last 5 years (college included) he has 3 separate ankle injuries and 4 separate hamstring injuries.

He's a #1 WR on a different team, but he's never going to be in the elite category like Jefferson, Chase, Adams, and Hill. Or before them it was J Jones, Hopkins, Thomas, and Brown. Guys who are on a whole different tier, with a pretty big gap between them and the rest of the true #1s.

It's a bad plan to prepare a contingency?  Chase is a top end athlete and has developed well so far...but free agency is free agency.  All it takes is one team out of 31 to do something crazy.  If a team with a rookie contract QB wants him bad enough the options are to overpay or watch him go.  If that happens, then what do you do?  You'd better hope that Tee Higgins is still on your roster in that event.  

[CottonHill]

I’d 100% do it. Love Tee but it’s not optimal to have your third highest paid player as a # 2 receiver. Decent chance Mulaghetta prices him out of Cincy after this year.
Chicago wouldn’t do this but but if they would oh boy. Anderson is the type of player that can make an already great defense legendary. He’s in the same stratosphere as guys like Bosa, Parsons, and some of those guys who make it impossible to sustain drives vs you.

[*michaelsean*]

Knowing the Bengals are going to lose players we all like, then Tee and the Bengals #1 for their #1 may be interesting, but not additional picks.

[J24]

(02-04-2023, 10:06 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: It's interesting when you look at it this way. I'd never do the trade, bit based on value charts...the Bears probably lose in that trade.

The draft chart is outdated 

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(02-04-2023, 11:21 PM)Bilbo Saggins Wrote: It's a bad plan to prepare a contingency?  Chase is a top end athlete and has developed well so far...but free agency is free agency.  All it takes is one team out of 31 to do something crazy.  If a team with a rookie contract QB wants him bad enough the options are to overpay or watch him go.  If that happens, then what do you do?  You'd better hope that Tee Higgins is still on your roster in that event.  

What?

Chase will never see free agency. He's getting extended as soon as he's eligible, after next year ends, 2 years before he could ever theoretically reach FA. Same situation as Burrow.

[tms]

(02-04-2023, 11:57 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: What?

Chase will never see free agency. He's getting extended as soon as he's eligible, after next year ends, 2 years before he could ever theoretically reach FA. Same situation as Burrow.

You'd like to think so but it's a fair question. There's only so much pie. Just last summer KC parted ways with Tyreek, presumably because he and Mahomes couldn't co-exist on the same payroll. Adams-Rodgers, same thing. At this point in history QB1s and WR1s are arguably the most overpaid of all positions. 

I'm no capologist but I do know it'll be tough to juggle those two contracts (Burrow and Chase). To say nothing of keeping Tee Higgins as well. Not saying it can't be done, just that it'll be tough. It's why I personally find a deal like this (for Will Anderson Jr) so intriguing. It partly gets us out from under the weight of extending all these guys at the same time. But it also presupposes that Anderson will be a star- which is a gamble. Whereas we already know what Tee is.

Either way, if this team wants to compete on a sustainable basis they'll need to stagger the deals- one way or the other... and sooner than later. 

[*rfaulk34*]

(02-04-2023, 07:18 PM)TKUHL Wrote: Not sure about this. I’m one of the (Keep Tee at all cost) but here is the link below.

https://thedraftnetwork.com/2023-nfl-mock-draft-trades/amp/

Give up Tee and 3 picks, including this years #2, to take an ED?

HELL NO

[Bilbo Saggins]

(02-04-2023, 11:57 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: What?

Chase will never see free agency. He's getting extended as soon as he's eligible, after next year ends, 2 years before he could ever theoretically reach FA. Same situation as Burrow.

He'll see free agency if his agent tells him not to sign a contract before testing the market. It takes two consenting parties to strike a bargain, and if one or two teams tell his agent that they'll pay him an astronomical amount of money all bets are off. 

[Weazzel80]

I would love trading up for Will Anderson, I'm sick of loosing to elite pass rushers. Like Arron Donald and Chris Jones, for example. Why not get one of our own? and that's not to say that Trey Hendrickson isn't really good too, but another one would be great.

I wouldn't want to trade Higgins though, maybe Joe Mixon, Jonah Williams, or Jessie Bates (after getting tagged again), along with however many top picks & future top picks it would take.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(02-05-2023, 12:27 AM)tms Wrote: You'd like to think so but it's a fair question. There's only so much pie. Just last summer KC parted ways with Tyreek, presumably because he and Mahomes couldn't co-exist on the same payroll. Adams-Rodgers, same thing. At this point in history QB1s and WR1s are arguably the most overpaid of all positions. 

I'm no capologist but I do know it'll be tough to juggle those two contracts (Burrow and Chase). To say nothing of keeping Tee Higgins as well. Not saying it can't be done, just that it'll be tough. It's why I personally find a deal like this (for Will Anderson Jr) so intriguing. It partly gets us out from under the weight of extending all these guys at the same time. But it also presupposes that Anderson will be a star- which is a gamble. Whereas we already know what Tee is.

Either way, if this team wants to compete on a sustainable basis they'll need to stagger the deals- one way or the other... and sooner than later. 

The Packers offered Adams more money than the Raiders did. He left because Rodgers couldn't guarantee he would be playing for the Packers for more than 2022. (Ironic because then one of his best friends Carr is going to be gone after a year in Vegas, but it's also looking like Rodgers won't be in Green Bay, so probably net positive choice for Adams?) Basically Adams just didn't want Jordan Love to be his QB. He started his career slow, so if he has any chance of the HoF he needs to dominate 2022-2026.

The Chiefs still had Travis Kelce (their real #1, he led the team in yards both 2019 and 2020 before losing out 2021 by 114, before Tyreek left) and had a $29.4m cap hit for Chris Jones in 2021. He has a $28.3m cap hit and Frank Clark's is $30m in 2023. That's why they chose the picks and adding multiple lower cost guys than extending Tyreek. Same reason I don't expect Tee to be extended here.

They can make Burrow and Chase work. They don't have any gigantic contracts right now. Tee too is where I don't think it'll really work, because that's adding an extra $25m/yr or whatnot.

I don't find the Anderson trade that intriguing because say you trade Tee Higgins not for the 2nd overall pick. You can expect to receive a 1st round pick in teens as well as a 3rd round pick. That's pretty much the going rate for a WR perceived as a #1. So by trading Tee along with your 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, you're also forgoing a possible 1st and 3rd.

So you're basically trading two 1st rounders, a 2nd rounder, and two 3rd rounders for Anderson. I honestly am not sure there's ANYONE I would currently trade that amount for to get on the Bengals right now, even among current NFL players. That's 5 players you could have reasonable expectations to be at least solid contributors, to potentially stars, all under very reasonable contracts for at least 4 years each.

I'll take a 1st round TE, 1st round RT or RB, 2nd round RT or RB (whichever you don't take with your second first), a 3rd round CB, and a 3rd round WR over Anderson. Those picks could do wonders for filling a bunch of holes on the roster at affordable prices.

(02-05-2023, 01:22 AM)Bilbo Saggins Wrote: He'll see free agency if his agent tells him not to sign a contract before testing the market. It takes two consenting parties to strike a bargain, and if one or two teams tell his agent that they'll pay him an astronomical amount of money all bets are off. 

Except, WE will pay him an astronomical amount of money. If there's one thing that Mike Brown can never be accused of it's refusing to pay his QB and his #1 WR. Always has, historically, despite his cheapness most everywhere else.

Also that's tampering and cost the Dolphins a 1st and 3rd round pick, a couple million dollars, kicked their owner off the committees he was on, and suspended him from being with his team for a couple months. That was for Tom Brady. Nobody else is worth that risk. The next instance of something of that degree will be punished even harder.

No agent would ever tell a player to play for 2yr/~$25m (that's roughly how much his salary in year 4 and his 5th year option combined are) when there's a 5yr/$150m or 6yr/$180m extension on the table, and no player would pass up $30m/yr and a ~$30m signing bonus.

Not to mention that Ja'Marr Chase literally went door-to-door in Joe Burrow's neighborhood until he found someone who was willing to sell their house to him so he could live next to Burrow. The Bengals are extending Burrow. When they offer Chase the type of money he deserves, and they will, he's here for forever. He will never see free agency.

[BurrowTheGoat]

IF (big if because I don't wanna see Tee go) but IF we trade Tee id like 2 or 3 picks inside the first and early second round. We need solid players not necessarily superstars. A nice shutdown CB, a great RT or LT, a solid DL or 2 and another WR if we part ways with Tee.

[tms]

(02-05-2023, 02:42 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: The Packers offered Adams more money than the Raiders did. He left because Rodgers couldn't guarantee he would be playing for the Packers for more than 2022. (Ironic because then one of his best friends Carr is going to be gone after a year in Vegas, but it's also looking like Rodgers won't be in Green Bay, so probably net positive choice for Adams?) Basically Adams just didn't want Jordan Love to be his QB. He started his career slow, so if he has any chance of the HoF he needs to dominate 2022-2026.

The Chiefs still had Travis Kelce (their real #1, he led the team in yards both 2019 and 2020 before losing out 2021 by 114, before Tyreek left) and had a $29.4m cap hit for Chris Jones in 2021. He has a $28.3m cap hit and Frank Clark's is $30m in 2023. That's why they chose the picks and adding multiple lower cost guys than extending Tyreek. Same reason I don't expect Tee to be extended here.

They can make Burrow and Chase work. They don't have any gigantic contracts right now. Tee too is where I don't think it'll really work, because that's adding an extra $25m/yr or whatnot.

I don't find the Anderson trade that intriguing because say you trade Tee Higgins not for the 2nd overall pick. You can expect to receive a 1st round pick in teens as well as a 3rd round pick. That's pretty much the going rate for a WR perceived as a #1. So by trading Tee along with your 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, you're also forgoing a possible 1st and 3rd.

So you're basically trading two 1st rounders, a 2nd rounder, and two 3rd rounders for Anderson. I honestly am not sure there's ANYONE I would currently trade that amount for to get on the Bengals right now, even among current NFL players. That's 5 players you could have reasonable expectations to be at least solid contributors, to potentially stars, all under very reasonable contracts for at least 4 years each.

I'll take a 1st round TE, 1st round RT or RB, 2nd round RT or RB (whichever you don't take with your second first), a 3rd round CB, and a 3rd round WR over Anderson. Those picks could do wonders for filling a bunch of holes on the roster at affordable prices.

There's a lot to unpack here (too much for me). But the point still holds. This team will inevitably need to do some fancy accounting to budget for just one of their wideouts alongside Burrow, forget about two. They can do it- of course they can do it- but the point is that it'll shrink the pie. Personally, I think they're committed to Chase if only for the fact that he came with such a significant opportunity cost at the draft. They wouldn't let him go in order to, for example, sign an OT1 as a FA (Sewell? Lol). The optics alone would prevent that. So I think it's safe to say they're all in on Chase. That decision has already been made.

What I really wanted to emphasize is that this particular deal comes down to Will Anderson even more so than Tee. I mentioned that in my first post. He's no chopped liver. If this guy is the next Khalil Mack (or- gasp- Von Miller), those assets you're hoarding are cumulatively still worth less than what you're getting. I mean, Von Miller?! He won DROY and was 2nd in DPOY the next year. Get that kind of immediate production from Anderson and you're laughing. You're not worried about the TE or OT prospects that you might have given up to get him (positions that this regime has never developed successfully I might add- positions they might be better served to sign off the street anyway).

You're getting an All-Pro D-MVP candidate with four full years before he needs to be re-upped. What's more, he may well be precisely the kind of talent elevator you need to help overcome the losses of Bates, Anarumo, et al., and allow the payroll to do more with less while Joe Burrow eats $50+ million moving forward. 

Just saying I wouldn't sleep on that kind of talent. Miller joined the worst defense in the league and vaulted them to #4 within two years, #1 within four, and basically kept them at the top for a decade before he was dealt. Granted, it's not about Von Miller; it's about Will Anderson. But those are his comps right now- Von, Mack, Barrett... some of the top names in football. If Anderson can produce at that level straight out of the gate, it's worth exploring--- 

Big if, though. 

[*pally*]

Justin Jefferson will be extended this season, that contract will be the blueprint for Chase’s.
I don’t think the challenge with Tee’s contract will come down to the actual dollar amount. It will be the guaranteed money in it which is the same thing standing in the way of Bates’s contract. Of course, like many a WR2 the prospect of being the WR1 is tempting. Unlike most WR2s though, Tee actually has the talent to be the number 1 guy. Of course he also has to take into consideration what his stats would look like with someone other than a Joe Burrow throwing the ball to him.

[Bengalstripes9]

I would trade Tee for #2 straight up. That’s about the lowest offer I’d accept.

[*Go Cards*]

(02-05-2023, 05:41 AM)Bengalstripes9 Wrote: I would trade Tee for #2 straight up. That’s about the lowest offer I’d accept.

yep because the Bengals having the #2 overall pick and the 28th would be sweet 

a QB will probably go #1 overall so they would have their pick of the top player at every position of need the Bengals have with that #2 pick. 

[TheFan]

(02-05-2023, 12:27 AM)tms Wrote: You'd like to think so but it's a fair question. There's only so much pie. Just last summer KC parted ways with Tyreek, presumably because he and Mahomes couldn't co-exist on the same payroll. Adams-Rodgers, same thing. At this point in history QB1s and WR1s are arguably the most overpaid of all positions. 

I'm no capologist but I do know it'll be tough to juggle those two contracts (Burrow and Chase). To say nothing of keeping Tee Higgins as well. Not saying it can't be done, just that it'll be tough. It's why I personally find a deal like this (for Will Anderson Jr) so intriguing. It partly gets us out from under the weight of extending all these guys at the same time. But it also presupposes that Anderson will be a star- which is a gamble. Whereas we already know what Tee is.

Either way, if this team wants to compete on a sustainable basis they'll need to stagger the deals- one way or the other... and sooner than later. 

Adams left GB after 8 years and KC traded Tyreek after being there for 6 year and mostly through his 2nd contract. It's not like they both left after their rookie counlikely.

KC got an absurd haul for Hill who was likely going to be gone after this year anyways.  

It's not just Tee that we're losing in this proposal though but also multiple other picks. Which is what makes it so unliked.