Reds June 2023 thread

[*bengalfan74*]

(06-08-2023, 09:00 AM)samhain Wrote: Yep.  

Saw an interesting post from Lance McAllister (I think).  

Once this season is over and the Votto/Moose deals are done, the Reds will basically have zero significant major league contracts on the books.  Guys like McClain, EDLC, Steer, Freidl, and CES won't come due until 2030.  India and Stephenson are arb-eligible soon, but that would only put them down for 3 mil a year or so, which is basically nothing.  Greene signed his deal, which is the outlier, but it's still extremely team-friendly.  Most of these guys aren't even making a million a year.

Payroll will be about 45-50 mil.

People want to know how Bob and Phil can bring the fans back from the toxic 2022 season.  Well, they're on the way.  The stadium is already filling up.  I bought tickets for my son and I Tuesday and the lines for 1-2-3 night were forever long.  I doubt they expected that.  If the ownership uses the flexible payroll to obtain whatever they may need (spoiler alert-it's pitching) in the offseason, they'll have no problem getting fans to the park and selling merchandise.  

It's like the Bengals.  They got a superstar to build around.  They then proceeded to act like a real NFL team and build around him.  Now there's a wait list for tickets and a rabid fanbase, even a national profile.  Fans spend money to see good players and teams.  it's not a advanced calculus to figure it out.

They sure seem to be, and I'm really surprised. I thought they had zero chances of any kind of a semi short tern rebuild, given their track record. Perhaps they're finally learning how to push the right buttons?

This bunch of younger players and rookies is very exciting, to say the least. Elly just may be the best prospect to come thru the Reds in forever. And he sure seems to be the real deal.

If they can somehow find some better pitching this team could be a force next couple seasons. And I'm shocked beyond belief I'm saying that.

[*rfaulk34*]

(06-08-2023, 09:00 AM)samhain Wrote: Yep.  

Saw an interesting post from Lance McAllister (I think).  

Once this season is over and the Votto/Moose deals are done, the Reds will basically have zero significant major league contracts on the books.  Guys like McClain, EDLC, Steer, Freidl, and CES won't come due until 2030.  India and Stephenson are arb-eligible soon, but that would only put them down for 3 mil a year or so, which is basically nothing.  Greene signed his deal, which is the outlier, but it's still extremely team-friendly.  Most of these guys aren't even making a million a year.

Payroll will be about 45-50 mil.

People want to know how Bob and Phil can bring the fans back from the toxic 2022 season.  Well, they're on the way.  The stadium is already filling up.  I bought tickets for my son and I Tuesday and the lines for 1-2-3 night were forever long.  I doubt they expected that.  If the ownership uses the flexible payroll to obtain whatever they may need (spoiler alert-it's pitching) in the offseason, they'll have no problem getting fans to the park and selling merchandise.  

It's like the Bengals.  They got a superstar to build around.  They then proceeded to act like a real NFL team and build around him.  Now there's a wait list for tickets and a rabid fanbase, even a national profile.  Fans spend money to see good players and teams.  it's not a advanced calculus to figure it out.

About a month ago, out of the blue, my wife said "we're not interested in going to a Reds game this year are we?" and i said nope, not at all. Last night i was sitting there and i said "you know what, we actually may need to get to a Reds game or two this year" because of the young talent and how exciting they look to possibly be. 

[CJD]

Whenever TJ Friedl and Nick Senzel come back from injury, and we call up CES, our lineup could be:
1. TJ Friedl CF
2. Johnathan India 2B
3. Matt McLain SS
4. Elly De La Cruz 3B
5. Spencer Steer 1B
6. Christian Encarnacion-Strand/Joey Votto DH
7. Tyler Stephenson C
8. Nick Senzel/Jake Fraley LF
9. TJ Hopkins/Will Benson/Wil Myers/Jake Fraley/Nick Senzel/Stuart Fairchild/Jose Barrero/Kevin Newman/Henry Ramos RF

That's pretty insane, if you ask me.

his lineup has the potential to surpass our 2010 squad in terms of raw offensive talent, which is the most talented team in my conscious lifetime. 

That was the year that Votto won the MVP (OPS+ 171) and we had Scott Rolen (126 OPS+), Jay Bruce (OPS+ 124), Ramon Hernandez (OPS+ 112), Drew Stubbs (OPS+ 105), Brandon Phillips (102 OPS+), and Johnny Gomes (OPS+ 101) and then Orlando Cabrera at SS (OPS+ 76) was the only starter on the team that hit under 100 OPS+. Even our back ups like Chris Heisey (OPS+ 101), Laynce Nix (OPS+ 114), Miguel Cairo (OPS+ 104), Ryan Hannigan (OPS+ 124), and Jim Edmunds (OPS+ 125) had great years!

And this team, from top to bottom (with the exception of Prime Votto) seems even more talented.

[CJD]

(06-08-2023, 09:26 AM)bengalfan74 Wrote: They sure seem to be, and I'm really surprised. I thought they had zero chances of any kind of a semi short tern rebuild, given their track record. Perhaps they're finally learning how to push the right buttons?

This bunch of younger players and rookies is very exciting, to say the least. Elly just may be the best prospect to come thru the Reds in forever. And he sure seems to be the real deal.

If they can somehow find some better pitching this team could be a force next couple seasons. And I'm shocked beyond belief I'm saying that.

It definitely seems like we rebuilt correctly this time. We traded our players at the peak of their value (getting Steer and CES for Mahle was ***** insane in hindsight) instead of at the bottom of their value (Frazier, Chapman, Cueto, Bruce).

[*bengalfan74*]

(06-08-2023, 10:34 AM)rfaulk34 Wrote: About a month ago, out of the blue, my wife said "we're not interested in going to a Reds game this year are we?" and i said nope, not at all. Last night i was sitting there and i said "you know what, we actually may need to get to a Reds game or two this year" because of the young talent and how exciting they look to possibly be. 

If you would have asked me 3 weeks ago are you going to a Reds game this season I would have been like 

Now I'm probably going to catch a couple or maybe more?

[*bengalfan74*]

(06-08-2023, 10:49 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Whenever TJ Friedl and Nick Senzel come back from injury, and we call up CES, our lineup could be:
1. TJ Friedl CF
2. Johnathan India 2B
3. Matt McLain SS
4. Elly De La Cruz 3B
5. Spencer Steer 1B
6. Christian Encarnacion-Strand/Joey Votto DH
7. Tyler Stephenson C
8. Nick Senzel/Jake Fraley LF
9. TJ Hopkins/Will Benson/Wil Myers/Jake Fraley/Nick Senzel/Stuart Fairchild/Jose Barrero/Kevin Newman/Henry Ramos RF

That's pretty insane, if you ask me.

his lineup has the potential to surpass our 2010 squad in terms of raw offensive talent, which is the most talented team in my conscious lifetime. 

That was the year that Votto won the MVP (OPS+ 171) and we had Scott Rolen (126 OPS+), Jay Bruce (OPS+ 124), Ramon Hernandez (OPS+ 112), Drew Stubbs (OPS+ 105), Brandon Phillips (102 OPS+), and Johnny Gomes (OPS+ 101) and then Orlando Cabrera at SS (OPS+ 76) was the only starter on the team that hit under 100 OPS+. Even our back ups like Chris Heisey (OPS+ 101), Laynce Nix (OPS+ 114), Miguel Cairo (OPS+ 104), Ryan Hannigan (OPS+ 124), and Jim Edmunds (OPS+ 125) had great years!

And this team, from top to bottom (with the exception of Prime Votto) seems even more talented.

I'm trying to keep my expectations for this season in check. I just don't think we have the pitching and/or it's just not ready yet. Having said that I'm beginning to think they might just make some waves before it's over this season. Get some teams feeling a bit of pressure.

[CJD]

(06-08-2023, 12:56 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: I'm trying to keep my expectations for this season in check. I just don't think we have the pitching and/or it's just not ready yet. Having said that I'm beginning to think they might just make some waves before it's over this season. Get some teams feeling a bit of pressure.

Yea, I agree. I think we're still a year away. And that kind of relies on Ashcraft and Lodolo to get out of their funks. Lodolo is injured, but he also has suffered from Homer-itis this season, giving up a staggering 10 HR in just 34.1 IP. His 6.29 ERA was horrible and, honestly, shook my confidence in him as a prospect a little bit. He isn't a particularly hard thrower (at least not compared to Greene and Ashcraft), so his claim to fame has always been location and pitch variety. If he's being taken yard this much, maybe those two things aren't as elite as they appeared to be in the minors and as a rookie.

And then Ashcraft has, obviously, been absolutely pummeled in his last 6 starts or so (give or take a decent enough performance against Miami in May) that has seen his ERA rise from 2.00 after his first 6 starts all the way up to 6.64 after his most recent 6 starts...Something is going on there, for sure. Is it pitch tipping? Is he just a very patterned pitcher that teams have figured out? I don't know how you can go from a dominant 6 starts to a horrendous 6 starts so quickly like that.

Our pitching coaches have got to find out what's going on with those two before we are truly playoff contenders, in my opinion.

The bullpen has been surprisingly good though. Not elite, but above average, which is much better than we were anticipating coming into the season. Diaz, Farmer, Law, Young, Gibaut and Sims are a really good bullpen, each with an ERA under 3.55 and Diaz looking like the best closer in baseball. The bullpen is 12th in the majors in ERA, 14th in WHIP. Their biggest issue is the free passes. They are 5th worst in the majors in terms of walks handed out.

With Abbott, Williamson, and maybe Stoudt debuting this year and Greene, Ashcraft and Lodolo continuing on from last year, we should be able to sign a 7th starter to a decent deal that would give us good starting pitching depth assuming Ashcraft and Lodolo rebound in the 2nd half of 2023 and in 2024.

[*psychdoctor*]

Hard to comeback against Kershaw today.

[*bengalfan74*]

(06-08-2023, 03:13 PM)psychdoctor Wrote: Hard to comeback against Kershaw today.

Yep

I figured with Kershaw on the mound we'd be hard pressed to win this one. But I'm very happy taking 2 of 3 from one of the better teams in the NL.

[*bengalfan74*]

(06-08-2023, 01:56 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Yea, I agree. I think we're still a year away. And that kind of relies on Ashcraft and Lodolo to get out of their funks. Lodolo is injured, but he also has suffered from Homer-itis this season, giving up a staggering 10 HR in just 34.1 IP. His 6.29 ERA was horrible and, honestly, shook my confidence in him as a prospect a little bit. He isn't a particularly hard thrower (at least not compared to Greene and Ashcraft), so his claim to fame has always been location and pitch variety. If he's being taken yard this much, maybe those two things aren't as elite as they appeared to be in the minors and as a rookie.

And then Ashcraft has, obviously, been absolutely pummeled in his last 6 starts or so (give or take a decent enough performance against Miami in May) that has seen his ERA rise from 2.00 after his first 6 starts all the way up to 6.64 after his most recent 6 starts...Something is going on there, for sure. Is it pitch tipping? Is he just a very patterned pitcher that teams have figured out? I don't know how you can go from a dominant 6 starts to a horrendous 6 starts so quickly like that.

Our pitching coaches have got to find out what's going on with those two before we are truly playoff contenders, in my opinion.

The bullpen has been surprisingly good though. Not elite, but above average, which is much better than we were anticipating coming into the season. Diaz, Farmer, Law, Young, Gibaut and Sims are a really good bullpen, each with an ERA under 3.55 and Diaz looking like the best closer in baseball. The bullpen is 12th in the majors in ERA, 14th in WHIP. Their biggest issue is the free passes. They are 5th worst in the majors in terms of walks handed out.

With Abbott, Williamson, and maybe Stoudt debuting this year and Greene, Ashcraft and Lodolo continuing on from last year, we should be able to sign a 7th starter to a decent deal that would give us good starting pitching depth assuming Ashcraft and Lodolo rebound in the 2nd half of 2023 and in 2024.

Yep, I don't get it with Ashcraft either? Not sure if injury from comebacker to foot is serious or not? But I'm with whoever said after he got rocked last start. Send him down. Let him work on whatever it is that's ailing him for a couple games then see where he's at. There's no use in keeping him out there getting murdered until he can get his head straight/game back together.

[*psychdoctor*]

(06-08-2023, 04:11 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Yep, I don't get it with Ashcraft either? Not sure if injury from comebacker to foot is serious or not? But I'm with whoever said after he got rocked last start. Send him down. Let him work on whatever it is that's ailing him for a couple games then see where he's at. There's no use in keeping him out there getting murdered until he can get his head straight/game back together.

he has been off for a while now. I don't know what happen to him this year

[Forever Spinning Vinyl]

Ashcraft was pitching very well before the bruise from the comebacker. It seemed like he was taking a few miles per hour off of the pitches and focusing on release more than power. I hope that this is the beginning of the way back instead of more treading water.

Offensively, games like this one are probably going to be more common than we'd like. It's normal for young teams to have many peaks and valleys and today they got flat out Kershaw'd. I expect that several veteran pitchers that are much less talented than Kershaw will have similar results. But that's one of the many beauties of baseball. Today's bad game is over, on to tomorrow.

And props to McClain for getting two of the six hits.

[samhain]

(06-08-2023, 11:23 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: It definitely seems like we rebuilt correctly this time. We traded our players at the peak of their value (getting Steer and CES for Mahle was ***** insane in hindsight) instead of at the bottom of their value (Frazier, Chapman, Cueto, Bruce).

Strange thing is, even minus the rebuild, they'd have McClain, Abbott, and De la Cruz.  The only real rebuild guy on the roster now is Steer.  The true impact of the rebuild has not yet made it to MLB.

[CJD]

(06-08-2023, 10:17 PM)samhain Wrote: Strange thing is, even minus the rebuild, they'd have McClain, Abbott, and De la Cruz.  The only real rebuild guy on the roster now is Steer.  The true impact of the rebuild has not yet made it to MLB.

Jake Fraley and Brandon Williamson came over in the Suarez/Winker trade but I get what you're saying and agree completely. Once CES, Marte and, eventually, Arroyo get here we'll feel the full effects of the rebuild but Steer alone is an incredible piece of the puzzle. 

[*bengalfan74*]

Well we're 29-34, five games down in the loss column. Heading into a 9 game road trip. Three each vs a so-so Cardinals, then a just bad Royals team, then ending with a very good Astros team.

We really need to make hay in the first two series because the Astros are tough. Come on Reds sweep the Royals.

[SladeX]

So I can only follow the team from afar, sotospeak. Benson hits a walkoff HR, and hasn’t played since? What’s up with that? Don’t know much about him, but he seems talented.

Edit: that was a bit melodramatic. It was only one game… . Seems like he’s been playing better of late?

[*bengalfan74*]

(06-09-2023, 05:40 PM)SladeX Wrote: So I can only follow the team from afar, sotospeak. Benson hits a walkoff HR, and hasn’t played since? What’s up with that? Don’t know much about him, but he seems talented.

Edit: that was a bit melodramatic. It was only one game… . Seems like he’s been playing better of late?

I'm very far from an expert on Benson. But it's my understanding he's struggled mightily at the plate. If I recall correctly the announcers said he had some injury issues, not sure? 

Long story short he's a project swinging the bat with any consistency. 

[cinci4life]

How are the Reds not lighting this guy up????

[Forever Spinning Vinyl]

(06-09-2023, 10:11 PM)cinci4life Wrote: How are the Reds not lighting this guy up????

Here's what I wrote after yesterday's game

Quote:Offensively, games like this one are probably going to be more common than we'd like. It's normal for young teams to have many peaks and valleys and today they got flat out Kershaw'd. I expect that several veteran pitchers that are much less talented than Kershaw will have similar results. But that's one of the many beauties of baseball. Today's bad game is over, on to tomorrow.

It took a total of one day to happen again. It's just part of the growth of a very young team.

[cinci4life]

Reds win 8-4! Abbott did great again!