SP trade targets you like

[*ochocincos*]

The Reds can (and should) be buyers this July as they are showing they have the offense to compete for a division crown.

Who are some starting pitchers on some losing teams you think would be good targets for the Reds as they approach the trade deadline?

A couple guys I like:

Lucas Giolito, SP CWS - Giolito is in his final year of arbitration and is set to hit the FA market after this year. While he's in his 8th year in the MLB, he's only about to turn 29 years old. He's sported a pretty good ERA with CWS in his 7 seasons there. 4.19 ERA his CWS tenure and 3.53 for 2023 so far. He might be a good target just for a run this year, but also with the Reds not paying much for pitching payroll in the near future, he might be someone worth trying to sign to a long-term deal.

JP Sears, SP OAK - Only in his 2nd year of MLB this year, but he's pitched well thus far. 4.18 ERA through his MLB career thus far. He's another lefty. Not sure if the Reds would want to have a 3rd lefty with Abbott and Lodolo on the roster, but with Lodolo still on the mend until likely August and now hearing Hunter Greene's injury go keep him on the IL until August, Sears might be a good add.

[Forever Spinning Vinyl]

I'm not trying to be controversial here . . . they may not need to make a trade, in fact, it might be a panic move.

1) As Nick Krall stated, most teams aren't that interested in trading right now because they still feel that they have a shot. You may have to over pay.
2) They don't need an ace, all they need is someone that can give them five or six competent innings
3) When teams are finally ready to deal . . . The Reds will be getting starters back.

Shortly after the 1st trade deadline hits in a month, this might be the rotation
Hunter Greene - due back in early August
Andrew Abbott
Graham Ashcraft
Brandon Williamson
Ben Lively - haven't heard anything on the pectoral MRI, if not, Weaver.

Also coming back down the road to push Weaver out
Nick Lodolo
Justin Dunn - schedule to throw live batting practice from August 8th until scheduled rehab assignment on August 22nd.

And some relievers
Derek Law - due back as early as July 2nd.
Tejay Antone - schedule to throw live batting practice from July 8th until scheduled rehab assignment on July 19th.
Vladimir Gutierrez - due back in September and expected to be in the bullpen. He'll try for a starter spot again next year.

Also a blurb from June 13th on Tony Santillan

Quote:Begins rehab assignment
Santillan (hamstring) began a rehab assignment with Triple-A Louisville on Tuesday.
A setback in May delayed Santillan's rehab process, but after a few sessions in the bullpen and during live batting practice, the 26-year-old righty is now approaching a return to Cincinnati. There's no word on how long the Reds plan on keeping him on assignment, though multiple appearances are likely.
JUNE 13
•
ROTOWIRE

And don't forget that Connor Phillips just got promoted to AAA. It didn't take Andrew Abbott long in AAA, hopefully Phillips rises to the occasion.

Not saying that I don't want them to make a move . . . I'm just saying that I won't lose my mind if they stay within the organization.

[*ochocincos*]

(06-29-2023, 07:08 PM)Forever Spinning Vinyl Wrote: I'm not trying to be controversial here . . . they may not need to make a trade, in fact, it might be a panic move.

1) As Nick Krall stated, most teams aren't that interested in trading right now because they still feel that they have a shot. You may have to over pay.
2) They don't need an ace, all they need is someone that can give them five or six competent innings
3) When teams are finally ready to deal . . . The Reds will be getting starters back.

Shortly after the 1st trade deadline hits in a month, this might be the rotation
Hunter Greene - due back in early August
Andrew Abbott
Graham Ashcraft
Brandon Williamson
Ben Lively - haven't heard anything on the pectoral MRI, if not, Weaver.

Also coming back down the road to push Weaver out
Nick Lodolo
Justin Dunn - schedule to throw live batting practice from August 8th until scheduled rehab assignment on August 22nd.

And some relievers
Derek Law - due back as early as July 2nd.
Tejay Antone - schedule to throw live batting practice from July 8th until scheduled rehab assignment on July 19th.
Vladimir Gutierrez - due back in September and expected to be in the bullpen. He'll try for a starter spot again next year.

Also a blurb from June 13th on Tony Santillan

And don't forget that Connor Phillips just got promoted to AAA. It didn't take Andrew Abbott long in AAA, hopefully Phillips rises to the occasion.

Not saying that I don't want them to make a move . . . I'm just saying that I won't lose my mind if they stay within the organization.

I just have a hard time trusting Brandon Williamson based on what we've seen so far this year.
Williamson - 8 games started, 5.82 ERA


You mention Justin Dunn, but that dude wasn't very good for the Reds last year. Maybe I just am not plugged into his ability as you are, but I don't recall him being a big get last year?


Through the month of July, you're looking at a rotation of:
Ashcraft
Abbott
Weaver
Williamson
Who?

That's a really rough rotation when you're sitting just 0.5 game in 1st place and you don't get your other guys back potentially for about a month.
How far down could you potentially fall in the standings if Ashcraft, Weaver, and Williamson continue to pitch poorly like they have recently?

And my head goes toward playoffs.
Which 3 pitchers in the Reds' rotation would you feel good pitching in a playoff series?
Hunter Greene is an obvious one but then who?

I'd feel much more comfortable having a good #2 and/or #3 added so you have more insurance.

I understand not making a trade before the All-Star break, which is July 11.
You can get another couple pitching opportunities for each of the guys between now and then to assess.
Reds get a nice stretch of games against losing teams in the Padres and Nationals before a final series against the Brewers right before the ASG.

But after the All-Star break, you're looking at mid-July for the next set of games, and here's who they have to finish out July:
Brewers (3 games) - 42-38 record currently
Giants (4 games) - 45-35 record currently
Diamondbacks (3 games) - 48-34 record currently
Brewers (3 games)
Dodgers (3 games) - 44-35 record currently

So after the All-Star break, every single team with a winning record. It is an extremely tough stretch, and you can't rely on your offense always getting a come-from-behind win so frequently.

[SunsetBengal]

(06-29-2023, 08:11 PM)ochocincos Wrote: So after the All-Star break, every single team with a winning record. It is an extremely tough stretch, and you can't rely on your offense always getting a come-from-behind win so frequently.

Agreed, seems like every year the pitchers get settled in and the hits get tougher after the All-Star break.  If the Reds management believes in this young group, they may have to go after a solid starter, just to get to the point where there own pitcher start coming back. (And, who knows how good they will be, coming off the DL)

[guyofthetiger]

Saw today where the Mets might want to trade Scherzer or Verlander soon. I would like to see the Reds pick one of them up by the trade deadline.

[*bengalfan74*]

I for one and sure hoping they go after at least one decent starter, please.

[SladeX]

If the White Sox continue to decline, how about Kopech? I have no reason other than he’s a hard thrower, and cocky as hell. I think he’s a great fit for us. I like the kid...

[samhain]

(06-29-2023, 11:16 PM)guyofthetiger Wrote: Saw today where the Mets might want to trade Scherzer or Verlander soon. I would like to see the Reds pick one of them up by the trade deadline.

I don't see it.  The Mets will want to bail those contracts, and they are massive.  It would run counter to wha the Reds have been doing to rebuild.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(06-29-2023, 07:08 PM)Forever Spinning Vinyl Wrote: Shortly after the 1st trade deadline hits in a month, this might be the rotation
Hunter Greene - due back in early August
Andrew Abbott
Graham Ashcraft
Brandon Williamson
Ben Lively - haven't heard anything on the pectoral MRI, if not, Weaver.

Also coming back down the road to push Weaver out
Nick Lodolo
Justin Dunn - schedule to throw live batting practice from August 8th until scheduled rehab assignment on August 22nd.

Ashcraft: 6.66 ERA (4.89 ERA last year, so career 5.63 ERA in the majors)
Williamson: 5.56 ERA (6.62 ERA in AAA this year)
Lively: Relief pitcher with a career 4.71 ERA as a starter, the only time he's thrown 100 innings in a season since 2016 was in 2020 in Korea
Weaver: 6.96 ERA (6.56 ERA last year)
Lodolo: 6.29 ERA, but at least he was good last year though I will wonder about bringing him back this year and risking the stress fracture healing 100%
Dunn: 6.10 ERA last year

So basically hoping that Hunter Greene comes back and stays healthy, and Lodolo comes back and pitches like he did in 2022. So only if two guys both come off the IL after being on it for over a month and return to form (and stay healthy) are you at 3 starters with Abbott who are major league starters. That's not enough. 

No matter how you cut it they need to add 2 decent starters at a minimum. They don't need to be all stars, but they need to at least be guys who can give you 6 innings of 3 run ball. 

One thing that will come into play later?
Greene has never thrown 130 innings in a season.
Lodolo has never thrown 120 innings in a season.
Abbott has never thrown 120 innings in a season.


You can't rely on them to carry the load in a 4 or 5 man rotation this year and still expect them to pitch in the postseason. You're going to need to go to 6 to spread out their starts a bit more and keep the innings to a reasonable escalation if you value their futures. Also to give the bullpen a bit more rest.

All these bad starters are also going to burn out the bullpen before we reach the postseason. I think we're already seeing it a bit with Diaz having a 4.00 ERA over his last 9 appearances, and on pace to appear in almost half of the games this year, Farmer with a 10.50 ERA over his last 7 appearances, Gibault 6.43 ERA over his last 7 appearances, Sims 9.00 ERA over his last 5 appearances.

[SladeX]

Welp Kopech IR til after all star game. He’d definitely fit in, lol

[*ochocincos*]

(07-03-2023, 08:32 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Ashcraft: 6.66 ERA (4.89 ERA last year, so career 5.63 ERA in the majors)
Williamson: 5.56 ERA (6.62 ERA in AAA this year)
Lively: Relief pitcher with a career 4.71 ERA as a starter, the only time he's thrown 100 innings in a season since 2016 was in 2020 in Korea
Weaver: 6.96 ERA (6.56 ERA last year)
Lodolo: 6.29 ERA, but at least he was good last year though I will wonder about bringing him back this year and risking the stress fracture healing 100%
Dunn: 6.10 ERA last year

So basically hoping that Hunter Greene comes back and stays healthy, and Lodolo comes back and pitches like he did in 2022. So only if two guys both come off the IL after being on it for over a month and return to form (and stay healthy) are you at 3 starters with Abbott who are major league starters. That's not enough. 

No matter how you cut it they need to add 2 decent starters at a minimum. They don't need to be all stars, but they need to at least be guys who can give you 6 innings of 3 run ball. 

One thing that will come into play later?
Greene has never thrown 130 innings in a season.
Lodolo has never thrown 120 innings in a season.
Abbott has never thrown 120 innings in a season.


You can't rely on them to carry the load in a 4 or 5 man rotation this year and still expect them to pitch in the postseason. You're going to need to go to 6 to spread out their starts a bit more and keep the innings to a reasonable escalation if you value their futures. Also to give the bullpen a bit more rest.

All these bad starters are also going to burn out the bullpen before we reach the postseason. I think we're already seeing it a bit with Diaz having a 4.00 ERA over his last 9 appearances, and on pace to appear in almost half of the games this year, Farmer with a 10.50 ERA over his last 7 appearances, Gibault 6.43 ERA over his last 7 appearances, Sims 9.00 ERA over his last 5 appearances.

Agree with pretty much all of what you said.
I like what Greene and Abbott have done this year, but outside of those two guys, you shouldn't rely on the other guys turning it around.
Hoping they turn it around is one thing, but you need insurance if you're really wanting to push for and into the postseason.

Gimme at least one SP, if not two. And 1-2 relievers (ideally a setup guy).
Something like that along with this young, cheap offense and I think the Reds can legit compete not only this year but for another couple years to come.

[Forever Spinning Vinyl]

(07-03-2023, 08:32 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: No matter how you cut it they need to add 2 decent starters at a minimum. They don't need to be all stars, but they need to at least be guys who can give you 6 innings of 3 run ball. 

LOL, OK. So far, we've both suggested the same amount of Starting Pitcher Trade Targets in the "SP trade targets you like" thread. All I was saying is that teams may not want to deal until later and the Reds have re-enforcements coming back near that time. It cost Minnesota Spencer Steer to get Tyler Mahle . . . which is close to a 6 inning, 3 run pitcher(4.50 ERA). I'm not sure that they want to break up team chemistry for a rental.

Mahle's career 4.35 ERA in Cincinnati includes half of his starts at GABP. Getting a 4.50 ERA pitcher outside of Cincinnati will probably get you a 5.something ERA after pitching some time in GABP. If you're wanting a 6 inning, 3 run pitcher IN Cincinnati, he's going to have to have a 4.00 ERA or less because that ERA is going to take a hit at GABP, especially in the summer heat. 

Castillo
3.54 Cincinnati
3.15 Seattle

Gray
3.49 Cincinnati
2.83 Minnesota

Mahle
4.35 Cincinnati
3.64 Minnesota - only 9 games

DeSclafani
4.19 Cincinnati
3.83 San Francisco

Iglesias
3.15 Cincinnati
2.76 LA/Atlanta combined
3.07 LA Angels
2.12 Atlanta

Quote:All these bad starters are also going to burn out the bullpen before we reach the postseason. I think we're already seeing it a bit with Diaz having a 4.00 ERA over his last 9 appearances, and on pace to appear in almost half of the games this year, Farmer with a 10.50 ERA over his last 7 appearances, Gibault 6.43 ERA over his last 7 appearances, Sims 9.00 ERA over his last 5 appearances.

So it's the starters fault that the Closer pitches a lot? That's a new one. 

And as for the ERAs the last few appearances, welcome to Summer baseball at GABP. The Reds are 18-4 in their last 22 games during these stretches with the inflated ERAs. The "Rally Reds" are also taking advantage of this heat. The team that couldn't hit a HR early on now has the second longest active streak of games with a HR.

I've stated many time before over the years, that Bell overuses the bullpen by making too many changes. Not enough pitchers are used for 2 innings. If Bell makes a pitching change to finish off the 5th inning, there's a good chance you're seeing 4 or 5 relievers tonight. This year, they made a conscious effort in Spring Training to put pressure on the base paths. At the end of this year, I would tell every reliever in the system to "stretch out" to be able to pitch two innings per outing and use that approach when building next years bullpen.

Quote:One thing that will come into play later?

Greene has never thrown 130 innings in a season.
Lodolo has never thrown 120 innings in a season.
Abbott has never thrown 120 innings in a season.

Greene has 73 1/3 innings and is scheduled to come back with less than two months left in the season. If he gets to 140, no need to shut him down.
Lodolo has 34 1/3 innings and is near the same time frame to return as Greene
Abbott has 91 1/3 innings in AA, AAA and in Cincinnati. He'll set a career high this month

Here's also what I said June 29th.

Quote:And don't forget that Connor Phillips just got promoted to AAA. It didn't take Andrew Abbott long in AAA, hopefully Phillips rises to the occasion.


Not saying that I don't want them to make a move . . . I'm just saying that I won't lose my mind if they stay within the organization.

There is still one more start needed from either a AAA starter or a bullpen day before the break. Since that start is due Sunday in Milwaukee, I'm guessing that it will be a bullpen game because everybody but Diaz has 4 days off after that game. Personally, I'd give it to a minor leaguer like Stoudt or another guy that pops up out of nowhere like Kennedy to help eat some innings.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(07-04-2023, 05:13 PM)Forever Spinning Vinyl Wrote: All I was saying is that teams may not want to deal until later and the Reds have re-enforcements coming back near that time. It cost Minnesota Spencer Steer to get Tyler Mahle . . . which is close to a 6 inning, 3 run pitcher(4.50 ERA). I'm not sure that they want to break up team chemistry for a rental.

Mahle's career 4.35 ERA in Cincinnati includes half of his starts at GABP. Getting a 4.50 ERA pitcher outside of Cincinnati will probably get you a 5.something ERA after pitching some time in GABP. If you're wanting a 6 inning, 3 run pitcher IN Cincinnati, he's going to have to have a 4.00 ERA or less because that ERA is going to take a hit at GABP, especially in the summer heat. 

Castillo
3.54 Cincinnati
3.15 Seattle

Gray
3.49 Cincinnati
2.83 Minnesota

Mahle
4.35 Cincinnati
3.64 Minnesota - only 9 games

DeSclafani
4.19 Cincinnati
3.83 San Francisco

Iglesias
3.15 Cincinnati
2.76 LA/Atlanta combined
3.07 LA Angels
2.12 Atlanta

So it's the starters fault that the Closer pitches a lot? That's a new one. 

And as for the ERAs the last few appearances, welcome to Summer baseball at GABP. The Reds are 18-4 in their last 22 games during these stretches with the inflated ERAs. The "Rally Reds" are also taking advantage of this heat. The team that couldn't hit a HR early on now has the second longest active streak of games with a HR.

I've stated many time before over the years, that Bell overuses the bullpen by making too many changes. Not enough pitchers are used for 2 innings. If Bell makes a pitching change to finish off the 5th inning, there's a good chance you're seeing 4 or 5 relievers tonight. This year, they made a conscious effort in Spring Training to put pressure on the base paths. At the end of this year, I would tell every reliever in the system to "stretch out" to be able to pitch two innings per outing and use that approach when building next years bullpen.

Greene has 73 1/3 innings and is scheduled to come back with less than two months left in the season. If he gets to 140, no need to shut him down.
Lodolo has 34 1/3 innings and is near the same time frame to return as Greene
Abbott has 91 1/3 innings in AA, AAA and in Cincinnati. He'll set a career high this month

Here's also what I said June 29th.
There is still one more start needed from either a AAA starter or a bullpen day before the break. Since that start is due Sunday in Milwaukee, I'm guessing that it will be a bullpen game because everybody but Diaz has 4 days off after that game. Personally, I'd give it to a minor leaguer like Stoudt or another guy that pops up out of nowhere like Kennedy to help eat some innings.

I don't particularly agree that the Reds are getting that much in reinforcements, though. Pretty much just Hunter Greene who you can expect to at least be average, and that's at LEAST a month away. Wins in July count just as much as wins in Sept.

I think you're underselling Tyler Mahle. He had a 3.59 ERA in 2020 (137 ERA+), 3.75 ERA in 2021 (125 ERA+), 4.40 ERA in 2022 (100 ERA+), and 3.16 ERA in 2023 (138 ERA+)... so 3 of his last 4 years he was significantly above average, and the most important part of his value is he was TERRIBLE in GABP. Anywhere else he actually IS an All-Star caliber pitcher. He has a 5.02 career ERA in GABP largely due to a 1.92 HR/9 while pitching there. So any other team acquiring him is getting a much much better pitcher when he doesn't have to worry about his pitching style of being a fly ball pitcher getting blasted in a small park. 

It's not just a straight conversion of pitching in GABP equals x increase in ERA for pitchers. It matters for things like.. is he a strikeout pitcher or a contact pitcher? Does he give up fly balls or ground balls? A 4.30 ERA ground ball pitcher coming to GABP will probably still be a 4.30 ERA pitcher. That's why Sonny Gray did so well his first two years here, he kept the ball on the ground greater than 50% of the time. Only his third year when he let his ground ball rate dip did he run into trouble.

When looking at the guys who are pitching elsewhere now, don't forget that the Reds completely gutted their pitching development and coaches as a cost saving measure. Also many of those guys' numbers you listed include their early career struggles. Comparing a guys numbers from when he was young and figuring out what works in the majors as batters adjust to him are always going to be higher. Clayton Kershaw had a 4.26 ERA his rookie year, Cueto had a 4.61 ERA his first two years. 

Sonny Gray had a worse ERA in both Oakland and New York, both of which are considered more pitcher friendly than GABP.
Disco had 1 good year with the Giants and had a 4.81 ERA his other two years there.

Also, the Reds were giving up 1.5 years of Mahle. That extra year adds a whole lot to the cost of acquiring a player. I am talking half year rentals.

- - - - - - -

Yes, it can be the starters fault if the closers appear a lot if the starter stinks despite the offense being good. Closers are only coming into close games. 

Luke Weaver is a perfect example of this... He has a 6.72 ERA this year, but the Reds are 9-5 when he starts. 
3.1 IP, 5 ER, the Reds win 11-10.
3.2 IP, 7 ER, the Reds win 9-8
5.0 IP, 5 ER, the Reds win 9-7
5.2 IP, 6 ER, the Reds win 7-6

You replace those with 6 IP, 3 ER and none of those 4 become save opportunities anymore meaning Diaz is getting more rest.

It's not just summer in GABP, but thanks. It's not just about the contact and the ball carrying, it's about loss of control from exhaustion. Diaz had 7 walks over that 9 game span, his strikes were just at 58%, his swinging strikes at 15%, he was taking 18 pitches per inning. Meanwhile he had just 12 walks in his previous 29 appearances, was throwing 61% strikes, had 18% swinging strikes, and 16 pitches per inning. Struggling and it wasn't just contact (and thus Summer) related.

His FB only averaged 95+ in 3 of his last 10 appearances. His FB was 95+ in 6 of the 10 prior games.

- - - - - -

Turns out Kennedy stinks too if his last game is any indication. Lol

[*ochocincos*]

I've been hearing Lorenzen's name mentioned a lot by baseball media.

Since leaving the Reds, Lorenzen has been a starter with both the Angels and now Tigers. ERA has been sub-4.5 for both teams.
Tigers are 11 games under .500 and Lorenzen is only on a one-year deal for $8.5 mill.

Knowing that Lorenzen could potentially be an upgrade later in the rotation order (SP3, 4, or 5) and also obviously pitch out of the bullpen in the postseason if desired, plus already comfortable playing in CIN, is he a guy you'd want back for a postseason push this year?

I would be ok with it as long as none of Marte, CES, or Arroyo are included in such a trade. But I'd want a strong SP1/SP2 with multiple years remaining on the contract if trading away any of the guys I mentioned.

[*bengalfan74*]

(07-11-2023, 12:04 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I've been hearing Lorenzen's name mentioned a lot by baseball media.

Since leaving the Reds, Lorenzen has been a starter with both the Angels and now Tigers. ERA has been sub-4.5 for both teams.
Tigers are 11 games under .500 and Lorenzen is only on a one-year deal for $8.5 mill.

Knowing that Lorenzen could potentially be an upgrade later in the rotation order (SP3, 4, or 5) and also obviously pitch out of the bullpen in the postseason if desired, plus already comfortable playing in CIN, is he a guy you'd want back for a postseason push this year?

I would be ok with it as long as none of Marte, CES, or Arroyo are included in such a trade. But I'd want a strong SP1/SP2 with multiple years remaining on the contract if trading away any of the guys I mentioned.

I'd be fully onboard with Lorenzen. The Weaver magic isn't going to continue, I hope it does but lets be real. And I don't have a lot of faith that Williamson is going to improve much. Who knows if Lodolo even makes it back this season? 

We need help

[The D.O.Z.]

I would hope they are also looking at “long relief” bullpen guys while searching for SP help. Leave no stone unturned if you think you can make a post season run. Lorenzen fits that bill. I don’t follow MLB like I used to, so I can’t tell you who I would go after or what I’d be willing to part with. I just feel like other teams may be wanting too much in return for so-so talent and I don’t want to sell the farm for a rental!