Reds July 2023 thread

[CJD]

(07-30-2023, 09:37 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: You were saying?

I consider anything above 4 runs to be a good offensive outing. Some may disagree, but that's where my bar is at. If you average 5 runs per game, you are an elite offense in my opinion (We currently average 4.82 per game, 10th in the majors. The best offense in the majors averages 5.77).

Even before today's game, they have been very exciting. They scored 6 against LA two games ago, they scored 7 and 9 vs Arizona prior to the Milwaukee series, They got 5 and 10 off of the Giants (granted, the 10 was a loss because our pitching imploded in that game), and they've won 8 or their last 11.

It's just the Brewers. We have played them 6 times since the break and lost 5 of those games, being shut out 3 of the 5 times. 

We won't play the Brewers again in the regular season, so our offense will be back to the exciting offense it has been since Elly was called up.

[CJD]

(07-30-2023, 06:27 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Damn, Votto inches from HR #2

CES is swinging at anything and everything. Coach him up coaches

(07-30-2023, 06:32 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Was about to say something about Strand. He's up there just swinging.

Sadly that's been his pattern all year. He chases a ton of pitches.

This is what I wrote when he was first called up.

(07-17-2023, 08:40 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: I am cautiously excited about the prospect of adding CES to this lineup. He has big power, gets a lot of hits and can play 1B or 3B.

It feels like I'd be selfish to expect yet another rookie to come up and immediately become an impact bat, but I think he's capable of providing just that.

The one area of concern in his game is his chase rate. For 2023, his chase rate is 43%. As in, he has swung a 43% of the pitches he has seen that are out of the zone.
The MLB average for 2023 is 31.7%, with the average since 2015 being 28.4%.

It was even higher in May, when he was swinging at almost half of the balls outside the zone (49%) but since June 1st, his chase rate has been 38%. Still high, but it shows that he is swinging at fewer balls than in the beginning of the year. He went through a slump in mid June that he has since broken out of and I suspect that slump was caused, at least partially, by a new approach in which he stopped swinging at so many balls outside of the zone.

The good news is that even with a high chase rate, his chase contact rate was also very high. In fact, on June 12th, Baseball America wrote an article dubbing him "The Minors’ Best Bad-Ball Hitter" due to his high chase contact rate.

I don't have the exact numbers because I don't have a baseball america membership, but I've heard podcasters talk about this as well, so even if he swings at more balls than he should, he also makes contact and gets hits off of those balls as well.

It'll only get harder in the MLB, so I'm hoping he doesn't start slow with a lot of strikeouts, but we'll just have to wait and see.

[*bengalfan74*]

Well, we've got our work cut out for us. The Brewers next 10 games are 3 vs. Nats on road, 4 vs. Pirates at home, Rockies at home. They'll probably win at least 7 of them.

We on the other hand have - 4 vs. surging Cubs on road, 3 vs. Nats at home, and 3 vs. Marlins at home. The Marlins are in the thick of the WC chase.

We swept Nats in 4 games back in early July. Probably gonna need to do it again?

[CJD]

(07-31-2023, 11:05 AM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Well, we've got our work cut out for us. The Brewers next 10 games are 3 vs. Nats on road, 4 vs. Pirates at home, Rockies at home. They'll probably win at least 7 of them.

We on the other hand have - 4 vs. surging Cubs on road, 3 vs. Nats at home, and 3 vs. Marlins at home. The Marlins are in the thick of the WC chase.

We swept Nats in 4 games back in early July. Probably gonna need to do it again?

Well, we've won 8 of 11 to get here. I think we can keep it going. Our record since Elly was called up is 30-16, with 7 of those 16 losses coming against the Brewers, so against every Non-Brewers team, we're 28-9 since Elly, which is likely the best winning percentage over that time period (I can't imagine any team doing better than a .757 winning percentage for nearly two months).

Meanwhile, the Brewers have gone 28-22 since June 1st and if you take the 13 games against us out, they have gone 18-19 in the last two months against all other teams they've played.

They no longer have the crutch that is our match up. They've fully milked that unusual matchup and that's why they're even in the race. Now that they can no longer directly hand us losses while getting wins, they have to play the other 28 teams. And, for the season, they are 47-46 against all 28 other teams in the MLB. Almost a perfectly mediocre team.

[*bengalfan74*]

(07-31-2023, 11:33 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Well, we've won 8 of 11 to get here. I think we can keep it going. Our record since Elly was called up is 30-16, with 7 of those 16 losses coming against the Brewers, so against every Non-Brewers team, we're 28-9 since Elly, which is likely the best winning percentage over that time period (I can't imagine any team doing better than a .757 winning percentage for nearly two months).

Meanwhile, the Brewers have gone 28-22 since June 1st and if you take the 13 games against us out, they have gone 18-19 in the last two months against all other teams they've played.

They no longer have the crutch that is our match up. They've fully milked that unusual matchup and that's why they're even in the race. Now that they can no longer directly hand us losses while getting wins, they have to play the other 28 teams. And, for the season, they are 47-46 against all 28 other teams in the MLB. Almost a perfectly mediocre team.

Sweet

One thing that gives us some hope as well. The Cubs current hot streak is against the bottom feeders. So perhaps we can give em a dose of reality!!

[*ochocincos*]

(07-31-2023, 01:20 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: I consider anything above 4 runs to be a good offensive outing. Some may disagree, but that's where my bar is at. If you average 5 runs per game, you are an elite offense in my opinion (We currently average 4.82 per game, 10th in the majors. The best offense in the majors averages 5.77).

Even before today's game, they have been very exciting. They scored 6 against LA two games ago, they scored 7 and 9 vs Arizona prior to the Milwaukee series, They got 5 and 10 off of the Giants (granted, the 10 was a loss because our pitching imploded in that game), and they've won 8 or their last 11.

It's just the Brewers. We have played them 6 times since the break and lost 5 of those games, being shut out 3 of the 5 times. 

We won't play the Brewers again in the regular season, so our offense will be back to the exciting offense it has been since Elly was called up.

I would agree, but that's also because I think a good pitching outing is 3 allowed runs or less.
If your SP is getting a quality start (6+ innings, 3 or less earned runs) and your bullpen doesn't allow a run (which is the expectation), 4 runs should be enough.

[CJD]

(07-31-2023, 02:17 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I would agree, but that's also because I think a good pitching outing is 3 allowed runs or less.
If your SP is getting a quality start (6+ innings, 3 or less earned runs) and your bullpen doesn't allow a run (which is the expectation), 4 runs should be enough.

yea, 4 runs is right on that line where, as you said, if your pitchers are meeting expectations, you should win.

Quality Start + blank bullpen innings is your ideal "realistic" scenario for any given game (obviously, it's great if your starter blanks them for 6 innings, but it's hard to expect that from them). The 5th run, in my estimation, is just a little bit of insurance for when your starter or bullpen falters slightly which is why I have it as my goal for a "good" offensive outing. 

[Earendil]

(07-31-2023, 11:33 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Well, we've won 8 of 11 to get here. I think we can keep it going. Our record since Elly was called up is 30-16, with 7 of those 16 losses coming against the Brewers, so against every Non-Brewers team, we're 28-9 since Elly, which is likely the best winning percentage over that time period (I can't imagine any team doing better than a .757 winning percentage for nearly two months).

Meanwhile, the Brewers have gone 28-22 since June 1st and if you take the 13 games against us out, they have gone 18-19 in the last two months against all other teams they've played.

They no longer have the crutch that is our match up. They've fully milked that unusual matchup and that's why they're even in the race. Now that they can no longer directly hand us losses while getting wins, they have to play the other 28 teams. And, for the season, they are 47-46 against all 28 other teams in the MLB. Almost a perfectly mediocre team.

Yep you're exactly right. I noticed this last week but didn't make the connection that since they don't play us again it gives us an advantage down the stretch. Hopefully the team capitalizes on it.

[*ochocincos*]

(07-31-2023, 01:18 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Sweet

One thing that gives us some hope as well. The Cubs current hot streak is against the bottom feeders. So perhaps we can give em a dose of reality!!

Yep get a series win against the Cubs and put more distance between them.
I don't like the Cubs being only 4 games out, especially given they have the best run differential in the division.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

Nice to see some hits strung together. Actually looks like sustainable offense!

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(07-29-2023, 09:56 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: He has been stinking for awhile now, so not defending that. I WILL say though, that before yesterday's game he still had a higher OPS than De La Cruz (granted none of his speed) and still has a higher OPS than India and Stephenson. 

I don't think he's "pulling the team down" or in a place where he should only play 1-2 times a week. He's still 5th on the team in HRs despite only 117 plate appearances (he still has 32 less PA for the Reds this year than Jose Barrero), he has just had an absolutely dreadful .183 BABIP which indicates a lot of bad luck when you have a 90.6 exit velocity, bad luck that can happen when you're dealing with a small sample size. 90.6 is the highest exit velocity at least of the starting 9 on the Reds (only 0.1 faster than DLC, and likely will be passed up, but currently still faster, lol).

His K% is higher than you'd want, but his BB% is still over 10 and he's still hitting the ball hard... 
-His 2nd highest exit velocity of the statcast era 
-His 2nd highest hard hit % of the statcast era
-His 2nd highest barrel % of the statcast era
-The lowest soft hit % in his career

He hasn't been good, but he hasn't been so bad that you can replace him with just anyone and get better results, and there's a lot of indications that he will statistically rebound from some bad luck. Continuing to hit the ball hard eventually leads to good things. Not to prime Votto numbers, those days are long gone, but to a solid contributor, sure. Just needs to refind his oppo swing and let more of those balls fall in.



- - - - -
I do find it interesting that as soon as Votto dips below a league average bat (he's 3% below average right now), Kevin is suddenly an active poster in here again. Lol

Just keep hitting the ball hard and eventually it will find holes and good things will happen. A .183 BABIP while hitting the ball hard is just unsustainably bad luck.

Since this post... 4 for his last 7, 2 singles, 1 double, 1 HR (got a second HR robbed), 4 RBI. OPS went from .752 to .811

[cinci4life]

Abbott needs to get it back together.

[cinci4life]

Nats taking a 5-3 lead over the Brewers into the 8th.

[cinci4life]

Nats beat the Brewers! Chance to add some breathing room.

[cinci4life]

Gibaut got a big break on that check swing strike 3 call. That wasn't a swing.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

Just 2 hits in the final 6 innings isn't how I expected this game to go for the Reds after their offensive showing in the first 3 innings.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(07-31-2023, 11:46 PM)cinci4life Wrote: Gibaut got a big break on that check swing strike 3 call. That wasn't a swing.

Diaz got a big break on that outside called strike. Meant they almost have to swing at pitches well outside after that.

[cinci4life]

Big win moves Reds 1.5 games ahead.

[Goalpost]

32 saves now for Diaz

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(08-01-2023, 12:00 AM)cinci4life Wrote: Big win moves Reds 1.5 games ahead.

Time to sweep the Stupid Cubs and keep building that number higher.