Not so fearless forecast

[Soonerpeace]

Not so fearless forecast

1. Myles Murphy and Joseph Ossai give our depth and pass rush a solid boost with a combined 8 sacks or more
2. Irv Smith has more TD’s and higher YPC than Hurst
3. Cordell Volson’s final PFF grade not the lowest on the starting line
4. CTB leads the team in INT
5. Charlie Jones proves to be the best returner in years
6. Trayveon Williams has the second most touches of the RB’s.
7. Joe Burrow leads the league in Passing TD’s
8. JaMar and Tee both have 10 or more TD catches
9. Joe Mixon avg. 4.5 ypc
10. Cincy Offense finishes top 3 in both scoring and PPP.

The teams final season record 13-4.

[sandwedge]

(07-18-2023, 10:57 PM)Soonerpeace Wrote: 1. Myles Murphy and Joseph Ossai give our depth and pass rush a solid boost with a combined 6 sacks or more
2. Irv Smith has more TD’s and higher YPC than Hurst
3. Cordell Volson’s final PFF grade not the lowest on the starting line
4. CTB leads the team in INT
5. Charlie Jones proves to be the best returner in years
6. Trayveon Williams has the second most touches of the RB’s.
7. Joe Burrow leads the league in Passing TD’s
8. JaMar and Tee both have 10 or more TD catches
9. Joe Mixon avg. 4.5 ypc
10. Cincy Offense finishes top 3 in both scoring and PPP.

The teams final season record 13-4.

I don't see anything to outrageous about your forecast

[Soonerpeace]

(07-18-2023, 10:59 PM)sandwedge Wrote: I don't see anything to outrageous about your forecast

Okay not so fearless

[BengalsLUFC]

We don’t lose 4 games all season, come back to this in January when we’ve got a Lombardi.

My one small concern is how Dax and Scott get on the first few weeks, I reckon the first two games especially against division rivals will be shootouts.

[IcoHolic]

Barring the injury bug, I dig your forecasts. I do believe it's Lombardi or bust for the guys in the locker room. It's either going to be an amazing season or heart breaking. I'm all in!

[Bengalbug]

(07-18-2023, 10:57 PM)Soonerpeace Wrote: Not so fearless forecast

1. Myles Murphy and Joseph Ossai give our depth and pass rush a solid boost with a combined 6 sacks or more
2. Irv Smith has more TD’s and higher YPC than Hurst
3. Cordell Volson’s final PFF grade not the lowest on the starting line
4. CTB leads the team in INT
5. Charlie Jones proves to be the best returner in years
6. Trayveon Williams has the second most touches of the RB’s.
7. Joe Burrow leads the league in Passing TD’s
8. JaMar and Tee both have 10 or more TD catches
9. Joe Mixon avg. 4.5 ypc
10. Cincy Offense finishes top 3 in both scoring and PPP.

The teams final season record 13-4.

I like most. Number one would be very underwhelming with only 6 sacks between the two of them. I’d say we should expect at least 10 between the two. Considering that if we are going to grow the sack total from last year, they are the two most likely contributors. If 6 is the number, let’s go get ngakoue.

[mhbsavant]

(07-19-2023, 08:24 AM)Bengalbug Wrote: I like most.  Number one would be very underwhelming with only 6 sacks between the two of them.  I’d say we should expect at least 10 between the two.  Considering that if we are going to grow the sack total from last year, they are the two most likely contributors.   If 6 is the number, let’s go get ngakoue.

Exactly, we need more than 6 sacks from the both of them! Very underwelming 

[jj22]

(07-18-2023, 10:57 PM)Soonerpeace Wrote: Not so fearless forecast

1. Myles Murphy and Joseph Ossai give our depth and pass rush a solid boost with a combined 6 sacks or more
2. Irv Smith has more TD’s and higher YPC than Hurst
3. Cordell Volson’s final PFF grade not the lowest on the starting line
4. CTB leads the team in INT
5. Charlie Jones proves to be the best returner in years
6. Trayveon Williams has the second most touches of the RB’s.
7. Joe Burrow leads the league in Passing TD’s
8. JaMar and Tee both have 10 or more TD catches
9. Joe Mixon avg. 4.5 ypc
10. Cincy Offense finishes top 3 in both scoring and PPP.

The teams final season record 13-4.

As to number 3 I'm interested in who you think will be? Kinda hope in a weird way it still is Volson given the experience and vets he has around him... Not that I want it to be a low grade.

[jj22]

(07-18-2023, 10:59 PM)sandwedge Wrote: I don't see anything to outrageous about your forecast

I think #9 is borderline. But if this plan to have Williams get a ton of touches then maybe it'll help Mixon. 

Sooner, is Williams getting more then Perine has ever got in your forecast? 

[Soonerpeace]

(07-19-2023, 08:56 AM)jj22 Wrote: I think #9 is borderline. But if this plan to have Williams get a ton of touches then maybe it'll help Mixon. 

Sooner, is Williams getting more then Perine has ever got in your forecast? 

No I expect him to have less than Perine but between Chase and Trayveon more. They are going to darn sure give Brown some touches. They are excited about him. Mixon’s may finish his contract they’ve got to find his replacement.

[Soonerpeace]

(07-19-2023, 08:53 AM)jj22 Wrote: As to number 3 I'm interested in who you think will be? Kinda hope in a weird way it still is Volson given the experience and vets he has around him... Not that I want it to be a low grade.

He may edge someone by a .01 but I think he improves. Could be Jonah. Don’t have one in mind.

[*jason*]

Tee Higgins is gonna have to stay healthy a full season to reach 10 TDs. If he's gonna reach that threshold, I hope he's already extended.

6 sacks seems pretty reasonable between Ossai and Murphy... I wouldn't expect more than 8 tops.

[jj22]

(07-19-2023, 09:15 AM)Soonerpeace Wrote: No I expect him to have less than Perine but between Chase and Trayveon more. They are going to darn sure give Brown some touches. They are excited about him. Mixon’s may finish his contract they’ve got to find his replacement.

Makes sense. Maybe less touches for Mixon is the key to his 4.5 (in your forecast).


I say the Bengals Offense (and Defense I guess) scores 40+ in 4 games. 30+ in 6.

[Soonerpeace]

(07-19-2023, 09:37 AM)jj22 Wrote: Makes sense. Maybe less touches for Mixon is the key to his 4.5 (in your forecast).


I say the Bengals Offense (and Defense I guess) scores 40+ in 4 games. 30+ in 6.

I think the offense has been somewhat neutered because of the OL. Teams have been begging us to run and trying double bracket Chase and Higgins every chance they can. I actually think Tyler Boyd has his best year in awhile. I think you are right the offense will finish with more scoring average

[*bengalfan74*]

(07-19-2023, 09:37 AM)jj22 Wrote: Makes sense. Maybe less touches for Mixon is the key to his 4.5 (in your forecast).


I say the Bengals Offense (and Defense I guess) scores 40+ in 4 games. 30+ in 6.

Mixon has averaged 219 carries over his 6 seasons. I'd venture a guess his total this season will be around that or even less. For one, I'm hoping the Oline is finally healthy and a lot better than in years past and we'll be a throwing team, even more than we have been.

And two, I think Brown and Williams we be in there a good bit. Mixon can't block.

[Soonerpeace]

(07-19-2023, 08:41 AM)mhbsavant Wrote: Exactly, we need more than 6 sacks from the both of them! Very underwelming 

(07-19-2023, 09:24 AM)jason Wrote: Tee Higgins is gonna have to stay healthy a full season to reach 10 TDs. If he's gonna reach that threshold, I hope he's already extended.

6 sacks seems pretty reasonable between Ossai and Murphy... I wouldn't expect more than 8 tops.

Taking a closer look 6 is a bit low. 8 is going to be my update.

[*ochocincos*]

I've got some:

- Irv Smith will not be the TE with the most offensive snaps this year.
- Team Rushing exceeds 1750 yards (this hasn't been done since 2016)
- The RT spot has above-average play this season

[Bengalbug]

(07-19-2023, 09:24 AM)jason Wrote: Tee Higgins is gonna have to stay healthy a full season to reach 10 TDs. If he's gonna reach that threshold, I hope he's already extended.

6 sacks seems pretty reasonable between Ossai and Murphy... I wouldn't expect more than 8 tops.

Ossai had 3.5 last year. That should/has to improve. Murphy having less than 5 would also be underwhelming. Hubbard is not a sack artist, and still at 6.5 last year.

If those two “only” account for 8, we won’t see much improvement over 30 sacks again. It’s just the reality.

Murphy and Ossai should reduce the snaps by Hendrickson and Hubbard over 2022. So Hubbard and Hendrickson replicating 6.5 and 8, respectively, could be a stretch. Even “if” they get to 14.5, plus 8, we are at 22.5. The rest of the roster accounted for 12 sacks as a team last year. Is 34.5 enough improvement? I don’t think so. We would still have been a bottom 7 in team sacks.

[Bengalbug]

(07-19-2023, 09:52 AM)Soonerpeace Wrote: Taking a closer look 6 is a bit low. 8 is going to be my update.

Still not enough, IMO.

[Soonerpeace]

(07-19-2023, 10:33 AM)Bengalbug Wrote: Ossai had 3.5 last year. That should/has to improve. Murphy having less than 5 would also be underwhelming. Hubbard is not a sack artist, and still at 6.5 last year.

If those two “only” account for 8, we won’t see much improvement over 30 sacks again. It’s just the reality.

Murphy and Ossai should reduce the snaps by Hendrickson and Hubbard over 2022. So Hubbard and Hendrickson replicating 6.5 and 8, respectively, could be a stretch. Even “if” they get to 14.5, plus 8, we are at 22.5. The rest of the roster accounted for 12 sacks as a team last year. Is 34.5 enough improvement? I don’t think so. We would still have been a bottom 7 in team sacks.

I think this is right