Not so fearless forecast

[kalibengal]

(07-18-2023, 11:15 PM)Soonerpeace Wrote: Okay not so fearless

#6 is an interesting one for me. I like Trayveon...  but whatabout Chase Brown?

[Soonerpeace]

(07-19-2023, 10:45 AM)kalibengal Wrote: #6 is an interesting one for me. I like Trayveon...  but whatabout Chase Brown?

It’s up to him but this staff on both sides of the ball seems to be not married to rookies. They just resigned Trayveon. But I think Trayveon will be 2 and that doesn’t mean a big gap between the 2

[*rfaulk34*]

(07-19-2023, 08:24 AM)Bengalbug Wrote: I like most.  Number one would be very underwhelming with only 6 sacks between the two of them.  I’d say we should expect at least 10 between the two.  Considering that if we are going to grow the sack total from last year, they are the two most likely contributors.   If 6 is the number, let’s go get ngakoue.

Even changing it to 8, it would be severely underwhelming.

I would set the over/under at 12.5

[*rfaulk34*]

(07-19-2023, 08:53 AM)jj22 Wrote: As to number 3 I'm interested in who you think will be? Kinda hope in a weird way it still is Volson given the experience and vets he has around him... Not that I want it to be a low grade.

Yep. If he can be 62 or above overall and around 68 in passpro, i'd be pretty happy.

[SunsetBengal]

(07-19-2023, 10:15 AM)ochocincos Wrote: I've got some:

- Irv Smith will not be the TE with the most offensive snaps this year.
- Team Rushing exceeds 1750 yards (this hasn't been done since 2016)
- The RT spot has above-average play this season

1. That's an interesting take on Smith, do you feel like Sample will get the snap count for his blocking ability?

2. I also feel like the game will be much stronger this year, as I see the offense jumping out quickly to two score leads, and then going methodical to keep opposing offenses off the field and also keeping our defense fresh.

3.  I sort of feel like the RT job is Jonah's to lose at this point, and I also feel like he will have a strong season over there and will likely secure himself a good second contract elsewhere in free agency.

[jj22]

(07-19-2023, 12:16 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: 1. That's an interesting take on Smith, do you feel like Sample will get the snap count for his blocking ability?

Or maybe due to his injury history... 

[Sled21]

With a better line, I would forecast all 3 WRs, Chase, Higgins AND Boyd have 1000 yd. seasons this year.

[Bengalbug]

(07-19-2023, 10:39 PM)Sled21 Wrote: With a better line, I would forecast all 3 WRs, Chase, Higgins AND Boyd have 1000 yd. seasons this year.

If Boyd couldn’t do it last year with chase and tee both missing time, it’s gonna be hard for him to accomplish this. I would love for it to happen, but I just don’t see this (3 x 1000) in the range of outcomes. One thing to consider (that would help Boyd) would be if Irv smith misses extended time, which I hope he doesn’t.

Since the league expanded to 32 teams in 1995, this has been accomplished 3x (95, 04 and 08), and twice before that. 32 teams have tried this 27 times since the expansion or 864 unique times. That works out to a 0.003472222222222% chance of happening.

Depending on the odds I could get, I might consider throwing $25 on it, lol.

[*ochocincos*]

(07-19-2023, 10:39 PM)Sled21 Wrote: With a better line, I would forecast all 3 WRs, Chase, Higgins AND Boyd have 1000 yd. seasons this year.

I'm curious to know how many teams have had 3 players with 1000+ yards in the same season before.

I see the Colts had it back in 2004 with Harrison, Wayne, and Brandon Stokley.
I see the 2008 Cardinals had Fitz, Boldin, and Steve Breaston with 1000+ yards each.
Has there been a team since them to have it?

Saints almost had it in 2012, but Jimmy Graham was just 18 yards shy.

[Soonerpeace]

(07-19-2023, 10:39 PM)Sled21 Wrote: With a better line, I would forecast all 3 WRs, Chase, Higgins AND Boyd have 1000 yd. seasons this year.

If they want to exploit teams they should work hard on developing a lot of stuff for Boyd and Smith.

[Truck_1_0_1_]

(07-20-2023, 09:36 AM)ochocincos Wrote: I'm curious to know how many teams have had 3 players with 1000+ yards in the same season before.

I see the Colts had it back in 2004 with Harrison, Wayne, and Brandon Stokley.
I see the 2008 Cardinals had Fitz, Boldin, and Steve Breaston with 1000+ yards each.
Has there been a team since them to have it?

Saints almost had it in 2012, but Jimmy Graham was just 18 yards shy.

Chargers did it in the 80s.

I think Atlanta did it in the 90s.

I know there's another team I'm missing, can't remember though...

[*rfaulk34*]

1980 Chargers - Winslow, Jefferson, Joiner
1989 'skins - Monk, Sanders, Clark
1995 Falcons - Metcalf, Mathis, Emanuel
2004 Colts - Harrison, Wayne, Stokley
2008 Cardinals - Fitz, Bolden, Breaston

Only 3 of them, 'skins, Colts and Cardinals did it with 3 WRs.

[*ochocincos*]

(07-20-2023, 10:14 AM)Truck_1_0_1_ Wrote: Chargers did it in the 80s.

I think Atlanta did it in the 90s.

I know there's another team I'm missing, can't remember though...

(07-20-2023, 10:57 AM)rfaulk34 Wrote: 1980 Chargers - Winslow, Jefferson, Joiner
1989 'skins - Monk, Sanders, Clark
1995 Falcons - Metcalf, Mathis, Emanuel
2004 Colts - Harrison, Wayne, Stokley
2008 Cardinals - Fitz, Bolden, Breaston

Only 3 of them, 'skins, Colts and Cardinals did it with 3 WRs.

Thanks.

So, to me, this hasn't been done in 15 years, so it'd be a super-bold forecast/prediction, not a not-so-fearless one.

It'd be great for it to happen, but it's extremely rare.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(07-18-2023, 10:57 PM)Soonerpeace Wrote: Not so fearless forecast

1. Myles Murphy and Joseph Ossai give our depth and pass rush a solid boost with a combined 8 sacks or more
2. Irv Smith has more TD’s and higher YPC than Hurst
3. Cordell Volson’s final PFF grade not the lowest on the starting line
4. CTB leads the team in INT
5. Charlie Jones proves to be the best returner in years
6. Trayveon Williams has the second most touches of the RB’s.
7. Joe Burrow leads the league in Passing TD’s
8. JaMar and Tee both have 10 or more TD catches
9. Joe Mixon avg. 4.5 ypc
10. Cincy Offense finishes top 3 in both scoring and PPP.

The teams final season record 13-4.

Yeah, not actually very bold but I will do a few bold thoughts on yours. I agree with a lot of it honestly. Think Murphy and Ossai 
combine for at least 12 sacks if they stay healthy. Think once Chase Brown hits a few big runs he will get a lot of touches and the
guys in front of him didn't ball out last year at all.

Think we could go 14-3 this year and I say that without hesitation. This is a damn good team that is on the cusp of being great
in all 3 phases. ST's under Simmons should be much better this year as they were pretty bad last season and in the Playoffs.

Chuck Sizzle and the rest of the ST's adds should really help. The FO and coaches really went all out on trying to improve the 
ST's unit this Offseason.

[Soonerpeace]

(07-20-2023, 12:31 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Thanks.

So, to me, this hasn't been done in 15 years, so it'd be a super-bold forecast/prediction, not a not-so-fearless one.

It'd be great for it to happen, but it's extremely rare.

I was thinking 14-3 earlier but Vegas has us at what 11? Tough schedule. 49ers,Bills, Chiefs, Jags, Raven (2).

[Essex Johnson]

(07-18-2023, 10:59 PM)sandwedge Wrote: I don't see anything to outrageous about your forecast

#2 would be not much of a bar, since Hurst was near the bottom in ypc, and had 2 TDs.. now your Mixon prediction is a bold one

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(07-20-2023, 10:57 AM)rfaulk34 Wrote: 1980 Chargers - Winslow, Jefferson, Joiner
1989 'skins - Monk, Sanders, Clark
1995 Falcons - Metcalf, Mathis, Emanuel
2004 Colts - Harrison, Wayne, Stokley
2008 Cardinals - Fitz, Bolden, Breaston

Only 3 of them, 'skins, Colts and Cardinals did it with 3 WRs.

I would have expected to see one of those run n shoot Oilers teams on that list.

[Sled21]

(07-20-2023, 12:41 AM)Bengalbug Wrote: If Boyd couldn’t do it last year with chase and tee both missing time, it’s gonna be hard for him to accomplish this.  I would love for it to happen, but  I just don’t see this (3 x 1000) in the range of outcomes.  One thing to consider (that would help Boyd) would be if Irv smith misses extended time, which I hope he doesn’t.

Since the league expanded to 32 teams in 1995, this has been accomplished 3x (95, 04 and 08), and twice before that. 32 teams have tried this 27 times since the expansion or 864 unique times.  That works out to a 0.003472222222222% chance of happening.  

Depending on the odds I could get, I might consider throwing $25 on it, lol.

He had 762 last year, not that far off really. And, I have to figure Chase and Higgins will miss time again this year, as most wr's get dinged during the season. Plus, it's now a 17 game season. I think it was Higgins that even mentioned that was their goal this year as a group, for all 3 to get 1000. If Burrow stays healthy and with better protection, I sure wouldn't be against them. 

[tms]

Great list. They're all reasonable in their own way, but I gotta admit that they never all happen together. I'd be thrilled with... 5 of them. Even that seems overoptimistic. I could see something weird (like Trayveon having #2 touches) being the most likely, ya know? The season's always unpredictable like that.

I think the O/U on Ossai and Murphy is solid. I'd bet on the upper if I were in Vegas, but I wouldn't feel good about it. JO's missed a lot of time and Murph's a rookie, so... yeah. That said, I think JO looked more explosive by the end of last year so he could easily emerge. But my questions about Murphy can't be answered before September... which can't get here soon enough, tbh.

I'll go out on a limb and say Irv won't be TE1 by the time we get to December, forget about topping Hurst. I have no faith in him. But I wouldn't put anything past our QB. The Burrow elevator is real.

It'll be interesting to look back on these picks at the end of the year. Maybe we should all make our own so we can all embarrass ourselves, instead of just picking yours apart lol

[Bengalbug]

(07-22-2023, 07:49 PM)Sled21 Wrote: He had 762 last year, not that far off really. And, I have to figure Chase and Higgins will miss time again this year, as most wr's get dinged during the season. Plus, it's now a 17 game season. I think it was Higgins that even mentioned that was their goal this year as a group, for all 3 to get 1000. If Burrow stays healthy and with better protection, I sure wouldn't be against them. 

Want to put a gentlemen’s bet on it? Happy to lose and pay up for this.