Reds August 2023 thread

[Nicomo Cosca]

Senzel is absolute trash. They look like the Bad News Bears all of a sudden.

[Goalpost]

This is the worst they have looked all year.

[cinci4life]

Did Senzel walk and nobody noticed not even the umps?

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(08-02-2023, 11:32 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Senzel is absolute trash. They look like the Bad News Bears all of a sudden.

3 bench players are in the starting lineup, including the 1-2 hitters. Strand who has been struggling got moved up to the #5 slot. Reds starters have the 28th ERA in MLB. The bullpen has 4 of the 5 players with the most appearances in the NL this year. 

- - - - - - - -

What's the record for most runs allowed in a 2 game span? 36 and counting here has to be getting close if it isn't it.

[cinci4life]

Nevermind i went back and watched and they put ball 1 up on the check swing called strike 2.

[StoneTheCrow]

Just don’t score 20, thanks. JFC

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

36 runs in 2 games, and both in only 8 innings. Woof.

[grampahol]

Starters are in trouble and the pen is getting gassed.. Senzel hasn't played enough to stay sharp so he'll see the bench a lot more.  Still, a hell of a lot better team than anyone expected headed into the season. I don't expect them to win any titles this season, but it's a very good beginning for the future going forward if they stabilize the pitching.. 

[Forever Spinning Vinyl]

Well, at least we got this out of last night.

[*ochocincos*]

I mean it's kinda funny that the first two games immediately after the trade deadline when some people were ok with the Reds not making trades for more pitchers, the Reds allow 36 runs.

[*bengalfan74*]

(08-02-2023, 11:49 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: 3 bench players are in the starting lineup, including the 1-2 hitters. Strand who has been struggling got moved up to the #5 slot. Reds starters have the 28th ERA in MLB. The bullpen has 4 of the 5 players with the most appearances in the NL this year. 

- - - - - - - -

What's the record for most runs allowed in a 2 game span? 36 and counting here has to be getting close if it isn't it.

Well, the Cubs have a righty going tonight so perhaps Bell will take the replacements out? As a general rule I hate the analytics crap!! And I get it guys need an extra day off now and again. And you want to keep your bench guys fresh and play them a bit.

But not 3 at once

[*bengalfan74*]

(08-03-2023, 09:28 AM)ochocincos Wrote: I mean it's kinda funny that the first two games immediately after the trade deadline when some people were ok with the Reds not making trades for more pitchers, the Reds allow 36 runs.

And just think there's 52 games to go, yee haaa

We're just going to have to accept the fact that this is a building season. It's hard, I mean after all the rebuilds we've been through since 2012 or whatever?
I'm just hoping this is the real thing and not another giant letdown like before.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(08-03-2023, 09:36 AM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Well, the Cubs have a righty going tonight so perhaps Bell will take the replacements out? As a general rule I hate the analytics crap!! And I get it guys need an extra day off now and again. And you want to keep your bench guys fresh and play them a bit.

But not 3 at once

I actually don't hate analytics crap. I just think they should just be extra information for you, not how you make your decisions. Information is good, use it but don't let it use you.

Senzel has hit lefties well this year, and he hit lefties well in 2019. He was terrible against them in 2022, and his other two years were small enough sample sizes that they don't particularly matter. Overall he's just not a good batter, not a good fielder, and not a good base runner.

Don't put a bad player into the starting lineup (and certainly not batting #2) because of splits that have been inconsistent. The second they take out the starter (seems to be less than 5 innings more and more often these days) he's just a gigantic anchor in your lineup made even worse by batting 2nd.

At least Newman has been good against lefties in 5 of his 6 years in MLB. That's enough of a track record that you go "hey, maybe he should start occasionally against lefties", but even then don't put him leadoff. As soon as the lefty starter is out, you suddenly have a terrible player as your leadoff batter.

Fairchild is just a bench player, and there's nothing wrong with that. You need bench players. He just shouldn't be starting in CF. There is a reason he was on 4 different teams in 2022 and the Reds got him for free.

[*ochocincos*]

(08-03-2023, 09:41 AM)bengalfan74 Wrote: And just think there's 52 games to go, yee haaa

We're just going to have to accept the fact that this is a building season. It's hard, I mean after all the rebuilds we've been through since 2012 or whatever?
I'm just hoping this is the real thing and not another giant letdown like before.

That's kind of the issue for me.

The Reds have enough cheap contracts they should have been easily able to take on more payroll this year once they saw they were at the caliber to compete.
We don't know what the subsequent years will be, as they may be letdowns. Remember how excited we were for the 2020 and 2021 Reds because they were finally building momentum? And then the Reds up and decided to just throw in the towel again and they were a bottom feeder in 2022. They've been coming in below expectations ever since that damn NL Divisional Series against the Giants in 2012.

One would logically think how difficult it is to actually get to the postseason and especially advance in the postseason when you got teams like the Dodgers and Yankees spending over $200 mill in salary when your team typically only does around $100 mill. You should (I would think, logically) want to take every opportunity when they arise if you see your team doing well because it may be years before you'll be good enough to compete like that again.

Instead, this feels like Mike Brown adding talent in the Marvin Lewis era - "Oh, we'll be good enough, just need another year to grow and we'll be there!...Oh, we fell short again? Well, always next year!"

[*rfaulk34*]

I'm no Stanford statistician or anything, but i think the last 2 games are going to hurt the team ERA. 

[*bengalfan74*]

(08-03-2023, 10:00 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: I actually don't hate analytics crap. I just think they should just be extra information for you, not how you make your decisions. Information is good, use it but don't let it use you.

Senzel has hit lefties well this year, and he hit lefties well in 2019. He was terrible against them in 2022, and his other two years were small enough sample sizes that they don't particularly matter. Overall he's just not a good batter, not a good fielder, and not a good base runner.

Don't put a bad player into the starting lineup (and certainly not batting #2) because of splits that have been inconsistent. The second they take out the starter (seems to be less than 5 innings more and more often these days) he's just a gigantic anchor in your lineup made even worse by batting 2nd.

At least Newman has been good against lefties in 5 of his 6 years in MLB. That's enough of a track record that you go "hey, maybe he should start occasionally against lefties", but even then don't put him leadoff. As soon as the lefty starter is out, you suddenly have a terrible player as your leadoff batter.

Fairchild is just a bench player, and there's nothing wrong with that. You need bench players. He just shouldn't be starting in CF. There is a reason he was on 4 different teams in 2022 and the Reds got him for free.

Agree

Bell seems to take it to the limit though.

[*bengalfan74*]

(08-03-2023, 10:18 AM)ochocincos Wrote: That's kind of the issue for me.

The Reds have enough cheap contracts they should have been easily able to take on more payroll this year once they saw they were at the caliber to compete.
We don't know what the subsequent years will be, as they may be letdowns. Remember how excited we were for the 2020 and 2021 Reds because they were finally building momentum? And then the Reds up and decided to just throw in the towel again and they were a bottom feeder in 2022. They've been coming in below expectations ever since that damn NL Divisional Series against the Giants in 2012.

One would logically think how difficult it is to actually get to the postseason and especially advance in the postseason when you got teams like the Dodgers and Yankees spending over $200 mill in salary when your team typically only does around $100 mill. You should (I would think, logically) want to take every opportunity when they arise if you see your team doing well because it may be years before you'll be good enough to compete like that again.

Instead, this feels like Mike Brown adding talent in the Marvin Lewis era - "Oh, we'll be good enough, just need another year to grow and we'll be there!...Oh, we fell short again? Well, always next year!"

I hear you and don't disagree. You have to strike while the iron is hot. But it's a balancing act to some degree with us as a small market team. I mean I didn't want to auction off all the young talent for a couple top shelf pitchers.

But in the end they're probably going to have to give somewhere. I just hope they're smart and do it soon. All these guys will be Yankees, Dodgers, Astros, Red Sox in a few years.

[*ochocincos*]

(08-03-2023, 11:32 AM)bengalfan74 Wrote: I hear you and don't disagree. You have to strike while the iron is hot. But it's a balancing act to some degree with us as a small market team. I mean I didn't want to auction off all the young talent for a couple top shelf pitchers.

But in the end they're probably going to have to give somewhere. I just hope they're smart and do it soon. All these guys will be Yankees, Dodgers, Astros, Red Sox in a few years.

It's my personal opinion that MLB needs to do revenue sharing and have a salary cap like NFL does.

It allows for these teams in smaller towns to be able to compete consistently with the big-city teams like LA, NYC, and Chicago.

I doubt those owners of the big teams would ever agree to such a thing though because that takes away their advantage.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(08-03-2023, 11:40 AM)ochocincos Wrote: It's my personal opinion that MLB needs to do revenue sharing and have a salary cap like NFL does.

It allows for these teams in smaller towns to be able to compete consistently with the big-city teams like LA, NYC, and Chicago.

I doubt those owners of the big teams would ever agree to such a thing though because that takes away their advantage.

They do revenue sharing, just not equal splits like the NFL.

48% of teams local revenue is gathered together and then split 30 ways.
They also get their split of the national revenue.

The local revenue split in 2018 was an esrimated $118m.
The national revenue split in 2018 was an estimated $91m.
Then you add 52% of the team's local revenue.

Revenue sharing is less of an issue for MLB compared to the huge need for a salary cap and salary floor. There is zero reason for 8 MLB teams to have payrolls under $100m (10 under $120m). There is also no reason for 5 teams to have payrolls over $240m including two over $275m.

[Goalpost]

I know they do that competitive balance pick at the end of round 1 and 2 also. It says....

All teams that have either one of the 10 smallest markets or 10 smallest revenue pools receive an additional pick at the end of the first or second round. The groups of teams alternate between the two rounds each year