Joe Burrow contract theory

[KillerGoose]

(08-08-2023, 06:18 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: That some point is this offseason, heading into only the 2nd year of the 10 year extension. 

https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/expect-patrick-mahomes-to-again-be-the-highest-paid-player-in-league-history-before-week-one

A good format is less good if you have to give more money just a couple years later. 

Also it is only a $39m cap hit this year because they did signing bonus cap gymnastics to bring it down $9.6m in March, as it was $49.3m. It's the second time they've done it with him in 3 years. The Bengals are less of players in the cap gymnastics game because it requires spending large sums of cash up front.

Good to know, I missed that news. Thanks. 

[*michaelsean*]

I agree with those that said he’s not taking less. He may help out with how it’s structured, but he’s getting north of 50 per year.

[samhain]

I think there may be something to him wanting to see other key players signed before he approves a deal.

This team paid Palmer a lot of money. Most in the league at the time he signed his first non-rookie deal. They then proceeded to watch the line deteriorate and have very halfhearted attempts at building the roster in free agency.

Maybe Joe wants to make sure that signing him doesn't equate to them letting the rest of the team go to crap like it did when Carson was quarterback.

[Essex Johnson]

(08-08-2023, 09:54 PM)samhain Wrote: I think there may be something to him wanting to see other key players signed before he approves a deal.  

This team paid Palmer a lot of money.  Most in the league at the time he signed his first non-rookie deal.  They then proceeded to watch the line deteriorate and have very halfhearted attempts at building the roster in free agency.  

Maybe Joe wants to make sure that signing him doesn't equate to them letting the rest of the team go to crap like it did when Carson was quarterback.

Palmer also deteriorated as a player after 2005 also would not blame it just on the line , in his career Palmer only had 5 winning seasons in his 14 years playing, not the level expected as the consensus #1 pick in the draft. 

[Joelist]

Palmer's decline was as much or more on him than on the OL - he earned the nickname "P6P" for good reason.

[Nepa]

(08-08-2023, 06:26 PM)Housh Wrote: I think alot of ppl are going to be disappointed when that deal is announced. It will not be a team friendly deal. There’s no reason for Burrow to do that. It’ll be the biggest contract ever with the highest per year average ever. He MAY help us by taking more of it on the backend so we can keep this current group together but Burrow will likely be here for 2-3 separate “groups” of Bengals so this will be interesting

Count me among those who will be disappointed. After five centuries of rooting for the Bengals, I would be pissed big time if Burrow signs a contract so egregious that it hurts the future of this team. It would go against everything I have come to believe about keeping fans, the team, and the other players part of the equation as opposed of just being in it for oneself.

[GreenDragon]

(08-08-2023, 10:19 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: Palmer also deteriorated as a player after 2005 also would not blame it just on the line , in his career Palmer only had 5 winning seasons in his 14 years playing, not the level expected as the consensus #1 pick in the draft. 

Let's not bring up Palmer. Those were dark times for the empire. 

[basballguy]

(08-08-2023, 11:14 PM)GreenDragon Wrote: Let's not bring up Palmer. Those were dark times for the empire. 

Damn...you're not wrong but it's crazy to think the era that got us out of the 90s was "dark times"....it's one of those things we didn't realize until we had it in hindsight.  

[GreenDragon]

(08-08-2023, 11:31 PM)basballguy Wrote: Damn...you're not wrong but it's crazy to think the era that got us out of the 90s was "dark times"....it's one of those things we didn't realize until we had it in hindsight.  

Yeah, the 90s were worse, but still. 

[RiverRat13]

Is there any evidence that Mahomes at the time thought he was signing a “team friendly” deal? My take is that he flat out signed a bad deal and is now spinning it as team friendly after other guys have signed using better structures for the player. He wanted the security of a 10 year deal and now it works out as not in his favor.

It’s Joe Burrow’s responsibility to get the best deal. It’s the Bengals responsibility to put a good team around him, not Joe’s. Besides, his contract will most likely be structured similarly to all of the other new extensions. He will play next year on the cheap 5th year option, then the first two years of the extension will be reasonable cap hits. By the time you get to third extension year the cap will have risen enough that Joe’s hit will be about 15% of the cap, a number you can still win the Super Bowl with if you have good roster management.

If Joe’s cap number gets too high, you restructure to lower it. If the Bengals are too cash poor to do this, then that’s on them, not Joe. The reality is that you have to have cash on hand to compete in the NFL today. If the Brown family does not, then they should sell the team. Now I understand there will be billionaire bootlicker fans who will blame Joe and not the Brown family if this were to happen. You already see it with some (not all) Reds fans giving ownership a pass for not spending money. But the reality is at the end of the day it is up to Bengals’ management to keep a competitive team, not one individual player’s.

[*Synric*]

(08-09-2023, 08:04 AM)RiverRat13 Wrote: Is there any evidence that Mahomes at the time thought he was signing a “team friendly” deal? My take is that he flat out signed a bad deal and is now spinning it as team friendly after other guys have signed using better structures for the player. He wanted the security of a 10 year deal and now it works out as not in his favor.

It’s Joe Burrow’s responsibility to get the best deal. It’s the Bengals responsibility to put a good team around him, not Joe’s. Besides, his contract will most likely be structured similarly to all of the other new extensions. He will play next year on the cheap 5th year option, then the first two years of the extension will be reasonable cap hits. By the time you get to third extension year the cap will have risen enough that Joe’s hit will be about 15% of the cap, a number you can still win the Super Bowl with if you have good roster management.

If Joe’s cap number gets too high, you restructure to lower it. If the Bengals are too cash poor to do this, then that’s on them, not Joe. The reality is that you have to have cash on hand to compete in the NFL today. If the Brown family does not, then they should sell the team. Now I understand there will be billionaire bootlicker fans who will blame Joe and not the Brown family if this were to happen. You already see it with some (not all) Reds fans giving ownership a pass for not spending money. But the reality is at the end of the day it is up to Bengals’ management to keep a competitive team, not one individual player’s.

Mahomes deal was great for both sides. The team got to regulate cap and Mahomes got paid top dollar at the beginning of the contract and stability. People think just because he has a contract in place it will always be like that but it's not true his contract was set up so that can give him a raise every few years back up to top of the market while still regulating the cap.


Also the new quarterback deals are all different. Jalen Hurts signed a very very team friendly deal because he wont make a lot of cash in hand his first year or second year. Herbert signed a fairly standard deal while Lamar was the worst deal and mostly because they all waited so long to get it done.


I'm hoping the Burrow deal while likely top APY will be at least 6 years (preferably 8) so they can do what they did with Mahomes regulate the cap and work in raises later.

[Nepa]

It's not a big ask for Burrow to consider a somewhat or even slight team-friendly deal to help out the team, teammates, and fans.

It's not as if he's being asked to make the kind of sacrifices that soldiers make when they leave their wives and children to fight in foreign wars at risk of their lives and limbs, as my father did in WWII and my son did when he left his young wife to fight in Iraq.

It's not even asking Joe to sacrifice as much monetarily as Aaron Rodgers did when he gave up a guaranteed 30 million dollars – $30 million effectively already in his bank account – because he wanted to help the Jets build a stronger team.

I’m just hoping that Burrow doesn’t squeeze out ever penny at the detriment of his team, his teammates, and his fans. I don't think he will. I'd be shocked if he handicapped the team with his contract.

[Truck_1_0_1_]

(08-08-2023, 06:26 PM)Housh Wrote: I think alot of ppl are going to be disappointed when that deal is announced. It will not be a team friendly deal. There’s no reason for Burrow to do that. It’ll be the biggest contract ever with the highest per year average ever. He MAY help us by taking more of it on the backend so we can keep this current group together but Burrow will likely be here for 2-3 separate “groups” of Bengals so this will be interesting

Which makes it team friendly

[WeezyBengal]

(08-08-2023, 10:19 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: Palmer also deteriorated as a player after 2005 also would not blame it just on the line , in his career Palmer only had 5 winning seasons in his 14 years playing, not the level expected as the consensus #1 pick in the draft. 

What are you talking about? He had some of his best career seasons with the Cardinals. Went to multiple NFC Championship games and was second in MVP voting in 2015. 

[*rfaulk34*]

(08-09-2023, 09:56 AM)WeezyBengal Wrote: What are you talking about? He had some of his best career seasons with the Cardinals. Went to multiple NFC Championship games and was second in MVP voting in 2015. 

His name didn't start with H and end with erbert, so he sucked(s).

[Ell Prez]

(08-08-2023, 06:26 PM)Housh Wrote: I think alot of ppl are going to be disappointed when that deal is announced. It will not be a team friendly deal. There’s no reason for Burrow to do that. It’ll be the biggest contract ever with the highest per year average ever. He MAY help us by taking more of it on the backend so we can keep this current group together but Burrow will likely be here for 2-3 separate “groups” of Bengals so this will be interesting

I agree 100% I also think a lot of people will be very upset when it’s only a 2-3 year extension. The Browns may not have $100M in cash to just put in escrow. It may be a $110M, 2 year contract with $60M guaranteed year 1. Hoping it’s a 5+ year contract, but we’ll see.

[Ell Prez]

(08-08-2023, 06:26 PM)Housh Wrote: I think alot of ppl are going to be disappointed when that deal is announced. It will not be a team friendly deal. There’s no reason for Burrow to do that. It’ll be the biggest contract ever with the highest per year average ever. He MAY help us by taking more of it on the backend so we can keep this current group together but Burrow will likely be here for 2-3 separate “groups” of Bengals so this will be interesting

I agree 100% I also think a lot of people will be very upset when it’s only a 2-3 year extension. The Browns may not have $100M in cash to just put in escrow. It may be a $110M, 2 year contract with $60M guaranteed year 1. Hoping it’s a 5+ year contract, but we’ll see.

[Hammerstripes]

(08-10-2023, 09:21 PM)Ell Prez Wrote: I agree 100% I also think a lot of people will be very upset when it’s only a 2-3 year extension. The Browns may not have $100M in cash to just put in escrow. It may be a $110M, 2 year contract with $60M guaranteed year 1. Hoping it’s a 5+ year contract, but we’ll see.

The chances of that happening are so minute, it's not even worth discussing.

No QB at the top of the market would sign that.  

[Ell Prez]

(08-08-2023, 05:20 PM)wanga Wrote: How much money is enough?

I hate that question. To each their own. Make as much as you can, if that’s what you desire.

[*rfaulk34*]

(08-10-2023, 09:09 PM)Ell Prez Wrote: I agree 100% I also think a lot of people will be very upset when it’s only a 2-3 year extension. The Browns may not have $100M in cash to just put in escrow. It may be a $110M, 2 year contract with $60M guaranteed year 1. Hoping it’s a 5+ year contract, but we’ll see.

If you don't think the Brown's have 100M to put in escrow, you haven't been paying attention to how much money the NFL makes every single year.