Reds September Games Thread

[CJD]

(09-05-2023, 10:53 AM)ochocincos Wrote: NL Central winner will end up being the one that plays on WC series anyway against the last place WC team, so I don't think it's hugely important at this point whether Reds win the division or make it into a WC spot.
If Brewers win the division, it's definitely possible we see a Reds-Brewers 3-game series with 2 games being in MIL, as I don't think the Reds gets the #4 or #5 seed.

And, honestly, two of three against Milwaukee in Milwaukee may do us some good. During the regular season, we were 1-6 at home against the Brewers, but we were 2-4 against them when we were in their stadium.

Plus, we're just generally a better road team than home team. 38-32 away, 34-36 at home, 

So, you know...that could be better?

[*bengalfan74*]

Marlins have a brutal next 13 games - Dodgers, Phillies, Brewers, and Braves. They'll be very lucky to still be in the hunt after that.

[Goalpost]

Four teams within a game of eachother for that last playoff spot. And MLB says tiebreakers will decide this. Anyone know what happens if they all tie or 3 teams tie? Ha.

[*ochocincos*]

(09-05-2023, 02:23 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: And, honestly, two of three against Milwaukee in Milwaukee may do us some good. During the regular season, we were 1-6 at home against the Brewers, but we were 2-4 against them when we were in their stadium.

Plus, we're just generally a better road team than home team. 38-32 away, 34-36 at home, 

So, you know...that could be better?

Maybe, although the Reds have disappointed the last two times they've played in a WC matchup and it was away.
2020 - lost 0-2 to the Braves, scored 0 runs across both games
2013 - lost single game to Pirates 6-2

Just feels like the Reds get the yips when in the postseason. Haven't won a postseason game the past 25 years other than the two in SF back in 2012.

[Forever Spinning Vinyl]

(09-05-2023, 12:29 AM)guyofthetiger Wrote: Reds looked good today. Keep on winning. I don't think we can catch the Brewers, but we can win the wildcard spot. Renfroe had a good game too.

Oh, they can catch them, but most likely won't. They do have some things in their favor, but it probably isn't going to be enough. Milwaukee's pitching staff still has to pitch 24-27 more innings than Cincy as they've played three less games than the Reds. The Reds still have five days off, including three in the last week and a half of the season, and the Brewers have a total of two for the remainder of the season. They both have this Thursday off and the Brewers are then scheduled for 17 games in 17 days before their last day off on the final Monday of the season. Their pitching staff is superior to the Reds but that's a brutal stretch this late in the season.

The Brewers have seven games vs Marlins, finish the season with three vs the Cubs and the rest are all sub .500. The Reds have two more vs the Mariners, three vs the Twins and the rest are all sub .500. However, both teams do have to face the Yankees which might be over .500 when they matchup as they are currently sitting at 68-69.

There is something to be said about a good defensive CF. I really liked Albert Almora in CF last season, but after hitting .286 for his first 32 of 64 games played, he hit .160 for his last 32. The pathetic, 62-100 Reds were 27-37 with Almora and 35-63 without him. After years of seeing Jesse Winker getting a handful of starts in Centerfield, Nick Senzel slamming into walls and the best, most fluid outfielder appeared to be Michael Lorenzen, it sure is nice watching Harrison Bader roam the outfield. I love TJ Friedl, but Bader is on another level.

[cinci4life]

Marte just needs a triple for a cycle and he should get a chance at it.

[Nicomo Cosca]

Martini ties it with a 3 run bomb!

[cinci4life]

Hope Elly can launch one and end it now.

[cinci4life]

HELL YEAH!!!!!!!!!!

[*bengalfan74*]

And this one belongs to the Reds.

[Nicomo Cosca]

Apparently Seattle had the best ERA in MLB coming into this series. So much for “the Reds can’t hit good pitching.”

[guyofthetiger]

Let's sweep the Mariners tomorrow. Reds doing great with callup pitching. Keep it going.

[CJD]

Well, that worked out great!

If I were a Mariners fan, I'd be so pissed about that game.

[*bengalfan74*]

Well, if you would have told me in April that come September the 6th we'd be the 6th seed in the playoffs I'd have thought you were drunk.

But here we are. And I'm starting to like our chances a bit better due to the other contenders remaining schedules. If by some miracle our pitching can continue patching things together? We just might make it.

The Braves are a real machine though. But who knows? Anything can happen if you just make the dance.

[*ochocincos*]

(09-05-2023, 06:23 PM)Forever Spinning Vinyl Wrote: Oh, they can catch them, but most likely won't. They do have some things in their favor, but it probably isn't going to be enough. Milwaukee's pitching staff still has to pitch 24-27 more innings than Cincy as they've played three less games than the Reds. The Reds still have five days off, including three in the last week and a half of the season, and the Brewers have a total of two for the remainder of the season. They both have this Thursday off and the Brewers are then scheduled for 17 games in 17 days before their last day off on the final Monday of the season. Their pitching staff is superior to the Reds but that's a brutal stretch this late in the season.

The Brewers have seven games vs Marlins, finish the season with three vs the Cubs and the rest are all sub .500. The Reds have two more vs the Mariners, three vs the Twins and the rest are all sub .500. However, both teams do have to face the Yankees which might be over .500 when they matchup as they are currently sitting at 68-69.

There is something to be said about a good defensive CF. I really liked Albert Almora in CF last season, but after hitting .286 for his first 32 of 64 games played, he hit .160 for his last 32. The pathetic, 62-100 Reds were 27-37 with Almora and 35-63 without him. After years of seeing Jesse Winker getting a handful of starts in Centerfield, Nick Senzel slamming into walls and the best, most fluid outfielder appeared to be Michael Lorenzen, it sure is nice watching Harrison Bader roam the outfield. I love TJ Friedl, but Bader is on another level.

Yea, it's hard to gain +6 games when there's just 21 games left.
Reds would have to go 14-7 over this last stretch if MIL stays even the rest of the way.
And it's been almost a month since MIL went under .500 in a 10-game stretch.
They do have 13 of their remaining 24 games against the Yankees, Marlins, and Cubs though, so it's not out of the realm of possibility, just not probable.

This does pose another question though...
With the Reds 5.5 games out of the division but holding the last WC spot by 0.5 game, should we root for the Brewers over the Marlins/Cubs so that the Reds can have a better chance to get into the WC, or should we root for the Marlins/Cubs to get closer to the division? I'd think we want the WC teams to lose more so that the Reds have the best chance to get into the playoffs regardless.

[kevin]

IF the Reds WIN today, they sweep Seattle in Cincinnati. MORE IMPORTANT the Reds would climb to as many wins as losses at home. THIS is VERY IMPORTANT because it should be the goal of every sports team financially to Win At Home and hopefully sell more tickets in the future.

So the Reds should be grinding it out not to finish 2023 with a losing record in Cincinnati. Reds can get back to .500 at home today, and that is better than a losing record in front of the paying fans that show up in Cincinnati.

[CJD]

Don't look now, but CES and Marte are on fire in the last 7 games.

Since August 30th, CES is 11 for 26 (.423 BA), 3 2B, 2 HR, 5 RBI and only 3 SO (but 0 BB).
Total line of .423/.423/.769/1.192 in 7 games.

Noelvi Marte, on the other hand, is batting .400/.478/.650/1.128 in the 6 games in September with 2 doubles and a HR with 2 BB, 1 HBP and just 3 SOs in 20 ABs.

To draw an equivalent to CES and include that August 30th game, his stats dip to .348/.444/.565/1.009 with 3 BB and 5 SOs in 23 ABs.

If these guys get hot over the next week or two, we could be riding high into a playoff spot!

Even Elly, who is NOTORIOUSLY streaky (Had a Golden Sombrero, followed by a 3 hit game, another Golden Sombrero, then 2 more games where he reached base 3 times) has gone .296/.406/.370/.776 with 4 BB, (10 SOs) 2 RBI, 3 SBs and 4 runs scored. He has been a major catalyst for some clutch RBIs and runs in those games as well. 

[CJD]

(09-06-2023, 01:37 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Don't look now, but CES and Marte are on fire in the last 7 games.

Since August 30th, CES is 11 for 26 (.423 BA), 3 2B, 2 HR, 5 RBI and only 3 SO (but 0 BB).
Total line of .423/.423/.769/1.192 in 7 games.

Noelvi Marte, on the other hand, is batting .400/.478/.650/1.128 in the 6 games in September with 2 doubles and a HR with 2 BB, 1 HBP and just 3 SOs in 20 ABs.

To draw an equivalent to CES and include that August 30th game, his stats dip to .348/.444/.565/1.009 with 3 BB and 5 SOs in 23 ABs.

If these guys get hot over the next week or two, we could be riding high into a playoff spot!

Even Elly, who is NOTORIOUSLY streaky (Had a Golden Sombrero, followed by a 3 hit game, another Golden Sombrero, then 2 more games where he reached base 3 times) has gone .296/.406/.370/.776 with 4 BB, (10 SOs) 2 RBI, 3 SBs and 4 runs scored. He has been a major catalyst for some clutch RBIs and runs in those games as well. 

And that's not all!

Jake Fraley is back and, in 6 games back (granted, two of them were just pinch hits), he has gone 6 for 13, 1 BB, 2 HBP (his poor toe!), only 2 SOs, 4 2Bs, 1 R and 1 RBI. A total line of .462/.563/.769/.1332

Super small sample size but God DAMN, that is a huge boost to our offense. And so clutch! 

[*ochocincos*]

(09-06-2023, 01:18 PM)kevin Wrote: IF the Reds WIN today, they sweep Seattle in Cincinnati.  MORE IMPORTANT the Reds would climb to as many wins as losses at home.  THIS is VERY IMPORTANT because it should be the goal of every sports team financially to Win At Home and hopefully sell more tickets in the future.  

So the Reds should be grinding it out not to finish 2023 with a losing record in Cincinnati.  Reds can get back to .500 at home today, and that is better than a losing record in front of the paying fans that show up in Cincinnati.

Do most fans actually pay attention to the home vs away splits and care about that when deciding whether to go to a game or not?
For me personally, I just look at whether the team is winning in general. I don't care what the home record is. I'll go see them if their overall record is good, and I probably won't bother going if their overall record is bad.

[CJD]

The Cubs have gone nuclear on the Giants. They've won 5-0, then won 11-8, and now are currently leading them 8-2 in the 8th.

I'm not sure we can catch the Cubs, but they may end up eliminating our competition for the 6th seed, as they also play the Diamondbacks this weekend.