Four Reds who won't return article

[*bengalfan74*]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/4-cincinnati-reds-who-won-t-be-back-next-season-including-1-trade-target/ar-AA1hzS8U?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=c9a2110d78094749acd5d43b3d48c40f&ei=7

I agree for the most part. I'm on the fence about India? They're going to have to make room somewhere so...... And one or two of the youngins is gonna have to move to the outfield.

I'd also add names that may well be moved on from- Nick Senzel, lets face it he's just not going to develop into an everyday starter. If they can keep him as a bench player it's fine by me.

Jose Barrero - I have no idea how he's done in the minors but I'd say it's time to pull the plug on him as a Red.

[Goalpost]

Encarnation Strand at 1st, McLain at 2nd, De La Cruz at short, Marte at 3rd, Steer in Left, Friedl in center, Stephenson as catcher.

That leaves right field and DH open. India in maybe one of those. Benson and Fraley in the mix also. Senzel I think is gone.

The guys in the 1st line are locks to me, except 'maybe' Stephenson, whose ceiling he hasn't achieved yet.

[*bengalfan74*]

(10-02-2023, 02:35 PM)Goalpost Wrote: Encarnation Strand at 1st, McLain at 2nd, De La Cruz at short, Marte at 3rd, Steer in Left, Friedl in center, Stephenson as catcher.

That leaves right field and DH open.  India in maybe one of those. Benson and Fraley in the mix also.  Senzel I think is gone.

The guys in the 1st line are locks to me, except 'maybe' Stephenson, whose ceiling he hasn't achieved yet.

I'm in no way a MLB contract/money guru. And I have no idea what Fraley and Benson's contracts are? But I'd be fine with keeping both of them as banch players, spot starters. 

I am a big India fan, he's been a starter level player except for a couple stints here and there. What kinda worries me about India is that he's already peaked. Add in the fact that he's a very average defender at best and I'm not totally opposed to trade him and whoever else for some better starting pitching.

Taking a chance so to speak that some combo of Steer, Friedl, McClain, CES, EDLC, Marte is going to be better.

[CJD]

(10-02-2023, 02:55 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: I'm in no way a MLB contract/money guru. And I have no idea what Fraley and Benson's contracts are? But I'd be fine with keeping both of them as banch players, spot starters. 

I am a big India fan, he's been a starter level player except for a couple stints here and there. What kinda worries me about India is that he's already peaked. Add in the fact that he's a very average defender at best and I'm not totally opposed to trade him and whoever else for some better starting pitching.

Taking a chance so to speak that some combo of Steer, Friedl, McClain, CES, EDLC, Marte is going to be better.

The way baseball players' contracts work, they are considered "pre-arbitration" until they enter a season with 3 full years of service time. A year of service time is defined as 172 of the ~187 days in the regular season.

Will Benson made the team out of training camp, but he only lasted 8 games before being sent down to AAA. He wasn't called back up until May 20th. So his service time for this season did not meet a full year of service time (Sent down April 13th, called up May 20th, he missed 37 days of service time when you're only allowed to miss 15 days and still have the season count towards your service time as a full year). 

For that reason, Will Benson will enter 2024 with less than 1 year of service time (according to Spotrac), so he still has three more years of pre-arbitration pay, which is basically the minimum salary for a major league player. In 2024, that will be 740k. Dirt cheap.

It's kind of ****** up the way they calculate service time, but the player union agreed to it in the CBA so....shrug.

Fraley just had his last year of pre-arbitration pay this year, so he will be entering his first year of arbitration. Players are eligible for arbitration until they have 6 full years of service time. In case you aren't familiar, that basically means the Reds have Fraley under team control (he can't sign with other teams), but they still have to negotiate a salary that both the team and the player agree to.

If they are unable to reach an agreement by a set date in the off season on what Fraley should be paid, the case goes before an arbitration committee. This committee reviews the players' past production, potential for future production and a bunch of other factors and comes up with a fair wage for a player with that level of production, based on past contracts and probably other factors as well.

Once the committee comes up with a price, the team can no longer negotiate. They must either accept the 1 year contract at that price, or else the player will become a free agent.

Generally speaking, having to use the arbitration committee is considered a very bad thing. It represents a breakdown between what the player thinks he's worth and what the team thinks he's worth, which usually means the player is unhappy with the team in some way of vice versa.

All this is to say...Fraley and Benson are almost guaranteed to be on the team next year.

[TecmoBengals]

Does Griffey Jr. also come off the books this season or next?

[Goalpost]

(10-03-2023, 02:02 PM)TecmoBengals Wrote: Does Griffey Jr. also come off the books this season or next?

According to this, 2024 is correct..https://www.fox29.com/news/mlb-legend-ken-griffey-jr-among-highest-paid-reds-players-2023#

[TecmoBengals]

(10-03-2023, 02:45 PM)Goalpost Wrote: According to this, 2024 is correct..https://www.fox29.com/news/mlb-legend-ken-griffey-jr-among-highest-paid-reds-players-2023#

It's wild to think about. Votto, Moose, and Griffey Jr. were among the highest paid Reds in 2023.

[*ochocincos*]

Players I see as likely:
- CES (1B)
- McLain (2B/SS)
- EDLC (INF)
- Marte (INF)
- Steer (3B/1B/LF)
- Friedl (CF)
- Fraley (OF)
- Benson (OF)
- Stephenson (C/1B)

- Greene (SP)
- Ashcraft (SP)
- Abbott (SP)
- Williamson (SP)
- Phillips (SP)

- Lodolo (P)
- Lively (P)

- Diaz (RP)
- Cruz (RP)
- Sims (RP)
- Antone (RP)
- Gibaut (RP)
- Moll (RP)

That's 22 right there.

They'll add another catcher (or two).
They'll probably add another couple relievers.
Might add 1 starter.

I'm excited for this winter.

[cinci4life]

Pretty nice article on MLBTraderumors about the Reds offseason outlook.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/10/offseason-outlook-cincinnati-reds-14.html

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

Everyone is so quick to move on from India, but he is a proven MLB-caliber average starter on a team lacking them.

Putting McLain at 2B means then you have to put DLC at SS and DLC is NOT a SS, no matter how much we might wish him to be. He had 13 errors in under 600 innings at SS. For comparison, McLain had 1 error in a little over 450 innings at SS. DLC had -5 defensive runs saved at SS, McLain had +4.

I know DLC will get all the chance in the world as a starter next year because of his talent, but he hit .191/.272/.355 (.627 OPS) while striking out 36% of the time after the All-Star break, which was 2/3rds of the time he was in the majors. You can't both pencil his bat into the lineup where he's a liability AND pencil his glove into SS where he's a liability. He did pretty well at 3B, so maybe you find an OF spot for Marte.

Or, maybe DLC just starts 2024 in AAA. There WILL be an injury (there always is) and he can be the first called up. Once there's an injury and you have already traded India away, then you're going to end up with a Stuart Fairchild, Kevin Newman, or Henry Ramos starting every day. Heck, we had Spencer Steer playing 2B for awhile this year.

Henry Ramos, Kevin Newman, Hunter Renfroe, Wil Myers, Jose Barrero, Nick Senzel, and Luke Maile all had games at DH for the Reds this year.

This year....
Nick Senzel had 330 PA, 85 OPS+, 0.0 WAR
Stuart Fairchild had 255 PA, 90 OPS+, 0.4 WAR
Kevin Newman had 253 PA, 81 OPS+, -0.4 WAR
Jose Barrero had 149 PA, 67 OPS+, -0.5 WAR
Wil Myers had 141 PA, 46 OPS+, -0.6 WAR
Curt Casali had 96 PA, 36 OPS+, 0.1 WAR
Henry Ramos had 86 PA, 80 OPS+, 0.2 WAR

That's 1,310 PA totaling -0.8 WAR... injuries will happen again in 2024. It's sports, there's no such thing as having an entire starting lineup top-to-bottom staying healthy all year.

We don't have such an overflowing talent and abundance of depth problem that we can just get rid of Jonathan India while he still has 3 years of team control left. They just need to keep him out of batting 3rd, where he was terribly miscast and left to flounder.

India 2023 batting leadoff: .266/.374/.408 (.781 OPS)
India 2023 batting third: .211/.296/.404 (.700 OPS)
India career average: .255/.350/.419 (.769 OPS)

When batting leadoff this year (281 of his 529 PA) he was exactly what the back of his baseball card says he is. A slightly above average hitter with a good OBP.

[dxdtdemon]

If Alex Young isn't coming back, then you need another left hander in the bullpen than just Sam Moll. There are a lot of rumors that Aroldis Chapman wants to end his career as a Red. I'm not sure if there are any other lefty relievers that would likely want to come here or would be coming up from the minors.