The Bengals’ Rushing Attack (Or Lack Thereof)

[TKUHL]

Maybe we should bring back the full back. Miami, SF etc. still use one. Hewitt would open some holes up. Couldn’t hurt.

[TheFan]

(10-10-2023, 10:59 AM)ochocincos Wrote: The Bengals will never be a heavy running team.
They don't have the personnel, playcalling, scheme, all that to be one.
They are a pass-driven team.

With that said, the Chiefs, Dolphins, and Bills are the same, but they are way more efficient/effective when they do rush.
Chiefs are 9th in the league in YPC.
Bills are 15th in the league in YPC.
Dolphins lead the league in YPC.

Bengals? 25th

Patrick Mahomes has ran for 154 yards. 
Josh Allen has ran for 120 yards.
Joe Burrow has ran for 10 yards. 

If Burrow had similar yardage what rank we would be? I'm not going to compare any offense to Miami because they had a 70 point game and just are just putting up video game numbers in general early this year. 

[Joelist]

Run game context.

We have a 3.5 YPA average which is 26th in the league. We've also only rushed 106 times in 5 games. I would argue this is at least partly a byproduct of us being almost 100% in shotgun - not the best rush formation. Also with only 106 carries any negative play like a kneel is far bigger an effect. As to breakdowns, that is interesting. We are worst running wide right (1.6 YPA) and our best runs are inside left (5.3 YPC) and inside right (also 5.3 YPC). In fact When we run using the gaps between LT and LG, or LG and C or C and RG the combined YPC is 4.85. So clearly we run best inside. When they do go wide for the edges we are WAY better going left than right. Kinda interesting.

[KillerGoose]

(10-11-2023, 09:45 PM)Joelist Wrote: Run game context.

We have a 3.5 YPA average which is 26th in the league. We've also only rushed 106 times in 5 games. I would argue this is at least partly a byproduct of us being almost 100% in shotgun - not the best rush formation. Also with only 106 carries any negative play like a kneel is far bigger an effect. As to breakdowns, that is interesting. We are worst running wide right (1.6 YPA) and our best runs are inside left (5.3 YPC) and inside right (also 5.3 YPC). In fact When we run using the gaps between LT and LG, or LG and C or C and RG the combined YPC is 4.85. So clearly we run best inside. When they do go wide for the edges we are WAY better going left than right. Kinda interesting.

Runs from shotgun are more efficient in nearly every way than under center. In fact, it isn't even close. Since 1999 (as far back as my data goes), shotgun runs average a full yard more per carry than under center. They convert short yardage situations more often, score touchdowns more often, have a higher amount of explosive runs, higher EPA per carry. Everything. In my head, this is likely a product of the personnel used when in shotgun. You are more likely to get favorable numbers in the box. Over his career, Mixon has also ran better from shotgun, averaging .4 yards more per carry (4.31 vs 3.93). For the season, Cincinnati is averaging 3.82 yards on designed runs, by the way. This accounts for anything like kneel downs. 

[Joelist]

(10-11-2023, 09:54 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: Runs from shotgun are more efficient in nearly every way than under center. In fact, it isn't even close. Since 1999 (as far back as my data goes), shotgun runs average a full yard more per carry than under center. They convert short yardage situations more often, score touchdowns more often, have a higher amount of explosive runs, higher EPA per carry. Everything. In my head, this is likely a product of the personnel used when in shotgun. You are more likely to get favorable numbers in the box. Over his career, Mixon has also ran better from shotgun, averaging .4 yards more per carry (4.31 vs 3.93). For the season, Cincinnati is averaging 3.82 yards on designed runs, by the way. This accounts for anything like kneel downs. 

Yes the avg has kneel downs in it, 3.82 is not good either. And I may be wrong about disliking running from shotgun - I just don't like that it causes the plays to develop slower. Part of why I put the numbers up was I found the big differences in running left vs right outside and outside vs inside overall interesting. 

[chrisball96]

(10-11-2023, 09:54 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: Runs from shotgun are more efficient in nearly every way than under center. In fact, it isn't even close. Since 1999 (as far back as my data goes), shotgun runs average a full yard more per carry than under center. They convert short yardage situations more often, score touchdowns more often, have a higher amount of explosive runs, higher EPA per carry. Everything. In my head, this is likely a product of the personnel used when in shotgun. You are more likely to get favorable numbers in the box. Over his career, Mixon has also ran better from shotgun, averaging .4 yards more per carry (4.31 vs 3.93). For the season, Cincinnati is averaging 3.82 yards on designed runs, by the way. This accounts for anything like kneel downs. 

I am not a huge stat guy I will admit, but I do wonder if the numbers are impacted by the fact that this year we have pretty much ONLY been running from the shotgun. If you mix it up and throw in a little variety as between shotgun and under center I can’t help but wonder if the numbers might improve?

[KillerGoose]

(10-11-2023, 10:27 PM)chrisball96 Wrote: I am not a huge stat guy I will admit, but I do wonder if the numbers are impacted by the fact that this year we have pretty much ONLY been running from the shotgun. If you mix it up and throw in a little variety as between shotgun and under center I can’t help but wonder if the numbers might improve?

I've had that thought as well. There could certainly be a difference between mixing and matching shotgun & uc vs running solely from shotgun. It does limit the type of plays you can run. 

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(10-11-2023, 10:27 PM)chrisball96 Wrote: I am not a huge stat guy I will admit, but I do wonder if the numbers are impacted by the fact that this year we have pretty much ONLY been running from the shotgun. If you mix it up and throw in a little variety as between shotgun and under center I can’t help but wonder if the numbers might improve?

Some great posts from Chrisball96 today....

[*ochocincos*]

(10-11-2023, 09:36 PM)TheFan Wrote: Patrick Mahomes has ran for 154 yards. 
Josh Allen has ran for 120 yards.
Joe Burrow has ran for 10 yards. 

If Burrow had similar yardage what rank we would be? I'm not going to compare any offense to Miami because they had a 70 point game and just are just putting up video game numbers in general early this year. 

FWIW, I specifically didn't say total yards, I was saying yards per carry. So the total rushing yards for these teams/players is not as relevant.
Josh Allen's YPC is 6.0, but he only has 15% of the team's attempts.
Mahomes is at 6.7 YPC, but he only has 16% of his team's attempts.

Burrow accounts for just 11% of the Bengals' rushing attempts.
Burrow's YPC last year was 3.4, so let's take that multiplied by his 12 attempts. That'd be an extra 31 yards compared to what he has right now.
Add the 31 to the Bengals' rushing totals, and the YPC only jumps from 3.5 to 3.8 YPC.
That's still below JAX's 3.9 team YPC, and they are 22nd in the league. So Bengals would be at least 23rd if not lower.

The efficiency/effectiveness still would not be good.

I do understand you want to point out that Mahomes and Allen do run well, but Burrow isn't going to be them as a runner. So we have to take into account instead more what he has done when healthy.

[TheFan]

(10-12-2023, 10:03 AM)ochocincos Wrote: FWIW, I specifically didn't say total yards, I was saying yards per carry. So the total rushing yards for these teams/players is not as relevant.
Josh Allen's YPC is 6.0, but he only has 15% of the team's attempts.
Mahomes is at 6.7 YPC, but he only has 16% of his team's attempts.

Burrow accounts for just 11% of the Bengals' rushing attempts.
Burrow's YPC last year was 3.4, so let's take that multiplied by his 12 attempts. That'd be an extra 31 yards compared to what he has right now.
Add the 31 to the Bengals' rushing totals, and the YPC only jumps from 3.5 to 3.8 YPC.
That's still below JAX's 3.9 team YPC, and they are 22nd in the league. So Bengals would be at least 23rd if not lower.

The efficiency/effectiveness still would not be good.

I do understand you want to point out that Mahomes and Allen do run well, but Burrow isn't going to be them as a runner. So we have to take into account instead more what he has done when healthy.

It wasn't really trying to say Joe can't run. He's not as good as Allen but I don't think that much different than Mahomes but their offensegives him more openings to take off for yards. I was genuinely curious how much of a difference it would make if he had a similar rushing output given how early it is in the season. 

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

Burrow only takes off if it is a blatant obvious hole. He is different than both Mahomes and Allen who think run way more often.

Burrow is so much more of a pass first QB.