Zack Carter

[kalibengal]

WTF with this guy? Havent noticed him once this yr and he was supposed to take load off BJ...
Saw in preseason he had bulked up and was ready for a "breakout" yr.
Looks like a Swing and a miss on this one. I pray they take this position seriously down the road and TE as well.
If they just kept Larry O, we would be good here.

[Nicomo Cosca]

The DT’s have been completely invisible outside of Reader and Hill. And yes, the Carter pick looks pretty rough so far.

We’ve now drafted 3 DL in the first 3 rounds between Carter, Ossai, and Murphy. Need at least one or two of them to turn into something.

[SunsetBengal]

(10-12-2023, 10:21 AM)kalibengal Wrote: WTF with this guy? Havent noticed him once this yr and he was supposed to take load off BJ...
Saw in preseason he had bulked up and was ready for a "breakout" yr.
Looks like a Swing and a miss on this one. I pray they take this position seriously down the road and TE as well.
If they just kept Larry O, we would be good here.

As I recall, it was an either/or situation with signing Ogunjobi or Hill.  With Trey and DJ both having high salaries, there simply wasn't enough money for the position group to keep both Larry and BJ.

[KillerGoose]

Carter so far has played 138 snaps this season, 13th on the team. He has been used primarily as a situational pass rusher, logging four pressures over 75 pass rush snaps. It's not great, as that is the lowest pressure percentage on the team.

[*ochocincos*]

(10-12-2023, 10:21 AM)kalibengal Wrote: WTF with this guy? Havent noticed him once this yr and he was supposed to take load off BJ...
Saw in preseason he had bulked up and was ready for a "breakout" yr.
Looks like a Swing and a miss on this one. I pray they take this position seriously down the road and TE as well.
If they just kept Larry O, we would be good here.

Carter has 75 pass rush snaps, 63 run defense snaps.
For the pass rush, he has 4 total pressures including one sack.

BJ Hill has about double the pass rush snaps as Carter.
He has 14 total pressures including 2.5 sacks.

It'd be great if Carter had a few more pressures, but he's not going to be near BJ Hill's production if he's only getting about half the snaps.

The Bengals were not going to keep Ogunjobi at the price he got from CHI. He had signed for $13.5 mill APY. And by the time he had been back on the market for failing physical, Bengals already gave Hill a solid veteran contract. They couldn't pay for both at the prices they were looking for, as Ogunjobi then got an $8 mill contract from PIT. No way the Bengals were going to pay that for a rotational guy.

And speaking of Ogunjobi, here are his stats this year...
About the same number of pass rush snaps as Hill (just 2 more).
12 pressures and just 1.0 sack.

Ogunjobi is about the same as Hill pressure-wise, and he's only had 2.5 sacks since departing CIN. He's played in 21 games since leaving CIN. 873 snaps in total for 2022-2023. Ogunjobi has largely been a disappointment.

[CJD]

Our IDL has been lacking this season so far. I think there's a legitimate question whether we cut BJ Hill after this season. It would save 7.5 million dollars in 2024 cap space and he just hasn't been an impact player that we were hoping for from the 3T position.

I know we never had a shot at him (clearly), but the Eagles, a Super Bowl team, getting Jalen Carter in last year's draft makes me sick...If we could learn how to hack the draft the way the Eagles have, we could be reload every year on the cheap.

Just staying put and picking in the late 20s each year risks leaking talent over time if our rookies cannot quickly replace our high end starters that leave in free agency.

[Mgbrown66]

When will people learn not to believe that preseason press?

[Nicomo Cosca]

(10-12-2023, 10:39 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Our IDL has been lacking this season so far. I think there's a legitimate question whether we cut BJ Hill after this season. It would save 7.5 million dollars in 2024 cap space and he just hasn't been an impact player that we were hoping for from the 3T position.

I know we never had a shot at him (clearly), but the Eagles, a Super Bowl team, getting Jalen Carter in last year's draft makes me sick...If we could learn how to hack the draft the way the Eagles have, we could be reload every year on the cheap.

Just staying put and picking in the late 20s each year risks leaking talent over time if our rookies cannot quickly replace our high end starters that leave in free agency.

BJ Hill is on pace for the most sacks from a Bengals DT since Geno.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(10-12-2023, 11:03 AM)Mgbrown66 Wrote: When will people learn not to believe that preseason press?

Sometimes it does carry over.

Chase and Hendrickson have carried their strong camps into the regular season. https://t.co/qJCNJ1WpHJ

— Goodberry (@JoeGoodberry) October 9, 2023

[CJD]

(10-12-2023, 11:04 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: BJ Hill is on pace for the most sacks from a Bengals DT since Geno.

His pass rush win rate is 7.5% which is 46th out of 71 among IDL. 

Multiplying 2.5 sacks by 17/5 is not a sound evaluation of a player's impact.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(10-12-2023, 11:10 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: His pass rush win rate is 7.5% which is 46th out of 71 among IDL. 

Multiplying 2.5 sacks by 17/5 is not a sound evaluation of a player's impact.

He’s on pace for 7.5-8 sacks. That’s absolutely an “impact” from the DT position. And no, they’re not going to cut him.

[CJD]

(10-12-2023, 11:13 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: He’s on pace for 7.5-8 sacks. That’s absolutely an “impact” from the DT position. And no, they’re not going to cut him.

Did you read what I wrote, by chance?

[*ochocincos*]

(10-12-2023, 10:39 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Our IDL has been lacking this season so far. I think there's a legitimate question whether we cut BJ Hill after this season. It would save 7.5 million dollars in 2024 cap space and he just hasn't been an impact player that we were hoping for from the 3T position.

I know we never had a shot at him (clearly), but the Eagles, a Super Bowl team, getting Jalen Carter in last year's draft makes me sick...If we could learn how to hack the draft the way the Eagles have, we could be reload every year on the cheap.

Just staying put and picking in the late 20s each year risks leaking talent over time if our rookies cannot quickly replace our high end starters that leave in free agency.

With Reader and Tupou hitting FA, I can't imagine they'd want to let go of yet another DL, especially a starter.
Hill is playing well for an IDL this year. He's on pace for 8-9 sacks and over 40 total pressures.

If Bengals really want to boost their pass rush, they need to try swinging Hubbard inside and put Ossai or Murphy outside.
Hubbard had been good when rushing inside.
Murphy might also be able to rush inside.

Hell, go crazy and try Hendrickson-Hubbard-Hill-Murphy-Ossai.
Might get some pretty good pressure.

[SunsetBengal]

(10-12-2023, 11:10 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: His pass rush win rate is 7.5% which is 46th out of 71 among IDL. 

Multiplying 2.5 sacks by 17/5 is not a sound evaluation of a player's impact.

In games where the offense has struggled to put point on the board this season, the defense has been on the field an awfully lot of snaps.  It's no secret that fatigue plays a roll in decreased physical performance.  As the offense continues to find its footing and put points on the board, I would expect the interior DL pass rush win rate to increase lineally.

Also worth noting that in 2021 when both Ogunjobi and Hill looked so good for the Bengals, they were both coming off of rotational roles with their previous teams, and continuing to split time in rotation with the Bengals.  Now that each of them is the "bona fide" starter and playing the majority of the snaps, each of their respective production numbers and coordinating rates of success are lower.  Why?  Again, because of that fatigue factor.  

[*bengalfan74*]

(10-12-2023, 11:43 AM)SunsetBengal Wrote: In games where the offense has struggled to put point on the board this season, the defense has been on the field an awfully lot of snaps.  It's no secret that fatigue plays a roll in decreased physical performance.  As the offense continues to find its footing and put points on the board, I would expect the interior DL pass rush win rate to increase lineally.

Also worth noting that in 2021 when both Ogunjobi and Hill looked so good for the Bengals, they were both coming off of rotational roles with their previous teams, and continuing to split time in rotation with the Bengals.  Now that each of them is the "bona fide" starter and playing the majority of the snaps, each of their respective production numbers and coordinating rates of success are lower.  Why?  Again, because of that fatigue factor.  

Exactly

And being down three scores in the 3rd qtr. changes how the opposing offense is calling their plays. I believe both Cleveland and Tennessee were approaching 200 yards rushing. The opposing QB is not dropping back throwing slow developing route passes. They're running it and dinking and dunking burning clock.

It's hard to get any pass rush win rates when you're getting curb stomped.

[Joelist]

By the way, we rank 16th in the league in TOP at 30:06. So we are not on average failing to rest the defense. We're also 21st in third down conversion percentage allowed at 41.2% and 16th in opponent plays per game at 62.

[CJD]

(10-12-2023, 11:39 AM)ochocincos Wrote: With Reader and Tupou hitting FA, I can't imagine they'd want to let go of yet another DL, especially a starter.
Hill is playing well for an IDL this year. He's on pace for 8-9 sacks and over 40 total pressures.

If Bengals really want to boost their pass rush, they need to try swinging Hubbard inside and put Ossai or Murphy outside.
Hubbard had been good when rushing inside.
Murphy might also be able to rush inside.

Hell, go crazy and try Hendrickson-Hubbard-Hill-Murphy-Ossai.
Might get some pretty good pressure.

That's a good point regarding how many free agents we have on the IDL this upcoming off season. That may be reason enough to keep Hill, as I think there's at least a 50% chance (and maybe higher) that we don't retain Reader.

In terms of what Hill is on pace for, 2.5 sacks is a very small sample size. Projecting that out over an entire season isn't typically indicative of what the player will actually do over the course of a season. The 40 pressures, on the other hand, is intriguing. I haven't noticed him impacting that many plays so far this season and his pass rush win rate being only 7.5% producing over 40 pressures is surprising to me.

Hopefully, this is just a small sample size issue and Hill kicks it into gear in the final 12 games of the season. God knows we need as much pressure on the QB as we can get.

(10-12-2023, 11:43 AM)SunsetBengal Wrote: In games where the offense has struggled to put point on the board this season, the defense has been on the field an awfully lot of snaps.  It's no secret that fatigue plays a roll in decreased physical performance.  As the offense continues to find its footing and put points on the board, I would expect the interior DL pass rush win rate to increase lineally.

Also worth noting that in 2021 when both Ogunjobi and Hill looked so good for the Bengals, they were both coming off of rotational roles with their previous teams, and continuing to split time in rotation with the Bengals.  Now that each of them is the "bona fide" starter and playing the majority of the snaps, each of their respective production numbers and coordinating rates of success are lower.  Why?  Again, because of that fatigue factor.  

That is the other thing that may be skewing his numbers. Our defense is being worked this season and, being down so much in 2 of our 5 games, there were a lot more run plays than passing plays late in games. I could see that being a factor in his poor pass rush win rate so far this season.

I miss Ogunjobi so much haha. Zack Carter was supposed to be that second rotational piece to keep Hill fresh but, unfortunately for us, he has not worked out that way so far.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(10-12-2023, 11:10 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: His pass rush win rate is 7.5% which is 46th out of 71 among IDL. 

Multiplying 2.5 sacks by 17/5 is not a sound evaluation of a player's impact.

Same thought pattern that had people saying BJ Hill had 5.5 sacks in 2021 on 502 snaps while Ogunjobi had 7.0 sacks on 724 sacks, so once Hill became the starter he would have even more. 

[Sled21]

(10-12-2023, 10:21 AM)kalibengal Wrote: WTF with this guy? Havent noticed him once this yr and he was supposed to take load off BJ...
Saw in preseason he had bulked up and was ready for a "breakout" yr.
Looks like a Swing and a miss on this one. I pray they take this position seriously down the road and TE as well.
If they just kept Larry O, we would be good here.

Yeah right! Chicago gave him insane money. Over 40 million if I remember right. Then he didn't even pass the physical. I liked Larry O a lot, but you can't fault the Bengals for passing on that deal. 

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

Carter needs to get better at collapsing the pocket behind Hill no question. Too early in the season for me to say he isn't
the guy in the rotation, but I am not believing it yet either. BJ Hill as Ochocincos and Nicomo said is having a good season
so far, but if Carter doesn't start to take over games a bit in the middle we need to add that other piece to the DL.

BJ Hill is a versatile DT, he can play both NT and 3-tech. You keep this guy, cannot believe CJD mentioning cutting him.

I really liked the numbers from Maxwell in college our UDFA, we need to have a guy somewhat like Geno in the interior.

A pass rushing 3-tech, heck Myles Murphy could be this for all we know. Saw him actually make a nice stop on the last
play of the game against the Cards. First time I have noticed Murphy this season.