2024 1st round pick is...

[TecmoBengals]

I'm locking in that the 2024 1st round pick is one of these 12 players (1st page of WR rankings): https://www.nfldraftbuzz.com/positions/WR/1/2024

My logic is simple: TB and Tee are eventually not going to be Bengals. The team will look to grab a WR this year as a retool to give Burrow a starter opposite Chase.

I'm not making a statement I think we should draft a WR but I'm making the prediction I think it's the position they target in round 1.

[*ochocincos*]

(10-17-2023, 11:32 AM)TecmoBengals Wrote: I'm locking in that the 2024 1st round pick is one of these 12 players (1st page of WR rankings): https://www.nfldraftbuzz.com/positions/WR/1/2024

My logic is simple: TB and Tee are eventually not going to be Bengals. The team will look to grab a WR this year as a retool to give Burrow a starter opposite Chase.

I'm not making a statement I think we should draft a WR but I'm making the prediction I think it's the position they target in round 1.

If Higgins walks or is tagged, I definitely think WR is a possibility in Rd 1.
Florida St has some big WRs who could both end up being mid-late 1st rounders in Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson.
Knowing the Bengals like to have tall guys outside, they might be very feasible targets.

If they go that route though, I'd really hope they re-signed Williams or found some other competent RT in FA so that we wouldn't have to rely on a Day 2 pick to start immediately at that spot.

[TecmoBengals]

(10-17-2023, 01:01 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Florida St has some big WRs who could both end up being mid-late 1st rounders in Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson.

When reading the draft profiles I was making note of the taller guys that can go up and get the ball. Basically replace Tee with a Tee-type WR. 

[CJD]

If Keon Coleman, the 8th ranked WR in this list, is available to us wherever we pick, I think it would be wise to select him.

[Stewy]

They're going to draft defense - you know they are.

[Bengal Dude]

I expect Tee to be tagged. I know the popular thought will be us tagging and trading Tee, but that isn't going to happen. 

[Jpoore]

I believe IDL. Micheal hall if he falls there. Later on I REALLY like sweat. If we go oline I like van pran. If we go wr, plenty of options. Te I prefer to wait to rd2-3. All depends where we pick.

[J24]

Kingsley Sumataia OT BYU!

[puddycat]

5th year options aren't cheap, coming between 12-18M.This makes the best use for a first round pick to be the safest likely starter on your board regardless of position IMO. The positions where the Bengals are mostly likely to finder a starter late in round 1 are all on the offense. IDK if the Bengals can find a start OT that late, though Sumataia or Paul could both stat later in year 1.

[Bengalbug]

2024 1st round pick is… too early to tell. The range of outcomes between now and April is like guessing the order of a shuffled 52 deck of cards.

[*ochocincos*]

(10-20-2023, 12:31 AM)puddycat Wrote: 5th year options aren't cheap, coming between 12-18M.This makes the best use for a first round pick to be the safest likely starter on your board regardless of position IMO. The positions where the Bengals are mostly likely to finder a starter late in round 1 are all on the offense. IDK if the Bengals can find a start OT that late, though Sumataia or Paul could both stat later in year 1.

It depends on the position, and these stipulations:

Quote:Starting with the 2018 draft, 5th year options for all 1st round selections took on a very different calculation process. The big deciding factor now? Pro Bowls. The valuation process for the 5th year option is broken down into 4 tiers:


Tier 1: A player is selected to 2+ Pro Bowls in his first three seasons (original ballot placement only)
Tier 2: A player is selected to 1 Pro Bowl in his first three seasons (original ballot placement only)
Tier 3: A player does not garner a Pro Bowl berth, but plays in either 75% of snaps in 2 of 3 seasons, or an average of 50% over all 3
Tier 4: A player does not garner a Pro Bowl berth, nor does he meet the necessary playing time criteria

Here were the 5th year option costs for this season - https://www.spotrac.com/spots/2023-5th-year-option-values-by-player-1422/

Notice how low TE, RB, and safety are.

If Bengals want to have a cheaper 5th year option hit, they may wanna look at TE or RB.
However, you could argue unless you have a strong running game and want a RB as your focal point, you don't wanna even spend the cost of the 5th year option on a RB. And likewise if a TE isn't a big part of your offense.

As of right now, I really do think it's going to be a WR or OL based on upcoming FAs and performance. 
I could maybe see a DT but they'd have to be a pretty prolific pass rusher to justify taking so early. Otherwise I think DT comes in Rds 2-4. Might even see 2 DTs if they aren't happy with Carter's progress by year's end.

[Goalpost]

I'd like to consider a DT but there aren't many 1st round options this year. In 2021, no DT's went in the 1st round and this year might be like that. The combine could change things, but right now there is more options of round two talent, at least in value without reaching.

[*ochocincos*]

(10-20-2023, 10:57 AM)Goalpost Wrote: I'd like to consider a DT but there aren't many 1st round options this year.  In 2021, no DT's went in the 1st round and this year might be like that.  The combine could change things, but right now there is more options of round two talent, at least in value without reaching.

Look out, you might upset the Michael Hall fan club 

[BenZoo2]

I would think ol and dl are just as likely if the team is looking at cost control. Isn’t this Readers last year? And Cappa and Karras will be up soon as well right? Not mention Jonah will probably walk after this year.


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[SunsetBengal]

(10-20-2023, 12:39 PM)BenZoo2 Wrote: I would think ol and dl are just as likely if the team is looking at cost control.  Isn’t this Readers last year?  And Cappa and Karras will be up soon as well right?  Not mention Jonah will probably walk after this year.


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There are a few plug and play quality 1T that should be available in the back half of the 2nd and 1st half of the 3rd round.  There are 3-4 3T that will likely go in the first and second round.  Not to mention the risers, as we are still only halfway through the CFB season.  So, I could easily see the Bengals looking to solidify the trenches in this draft, particularly as they have went big on the secondary the past two years.

[TecmoBengals]

I'm leaning toward we end up with Keon Coleman, WR.

[Goalpost]

It's got to be a trench pick, either side. But probably offense if forced to make a choice.

[Jpoore]

I think it comes down to Keon Coleman(wr), graham barton(tackle) cooper dejean(cb/safety) if newton (DT) somehow falls you sprint to podium and don’t look back. Later looking at Micheal hall, Brandon dorious, and tyreek williams. If all those players are gone I think you trade back. To early for IOL no need at lber, never draft rb rd1. We still have a need at de but nobody I love

[*Synric*]

The Off-Season and what the Bengals do with Tee Higgins, DJ Reader, and Jonah Williams will decide what happens in the draft until we know rhe answers to those questions it's all guess work.


.... that said lol I think the signing of Orlando Brown Jr signaled the exit of Williams so I expect a OL/RT early in the draft. Taliese Fuaga RT Oregon State.

Edit: side note Amarius Mims RT Georgia was back against Ole Miss and played well.

[kalibengal]

(10-20-2023, 12:22 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Look out, you might upset the Michael Hall fan club 

Can we just refer to him as 'Dexter"?