Full Off-Season and Mock 2.0

[Whatever]

Doing another one of these in my neverending attempts to return the franchise to the Dark Ages(j/k). Here goes...

Coaching Hires

Bill Bedenbaugh, OL Coach, Oklahoma-Bedenbaugh has been the OL coach at OU since '13, and the amount of high end OL talent he's put into the NFL during that time is pretty astounding. He's also a spread offense disciple who should mesh well with Taylor.

Mike Denbrock, OC, LSU-Denbrock was the OC for UC during their recent peak under Fickell in '21 before moving onto LSU and helping them have one of the best passing attacks in the nation.

Resign

DJ Reader(3 years, $48 mil)-Reader is one of the cornerstones of the defense. This really doesn't need explanation.

Drew Sample (2 years, $3 mil)-Good reserve/blocking TE.

Marcus Bailey (2 years, 2.5 mil)-Depth/ST's.

RFA/ERFA Tenders-Trenton Irwin, Jake Browning, Cal Adomitas, Mitchell Wilcox

UFA

Connor Williams, C, Miami(5 years, $68 mil)-Williams is a high quality C that also has experience at G. With a 9.15 RAS, he should help with the athletic limitations of the OL group and solidify the position for years. Karras slides to LG to put Volson on the bench, or possibly he winds up on the bench himself if further upgrades can be found in the draft.

George Fant, T, Houston(1 year, $5 mil)-I'm still hoping to address RT in the draft, but I'm not heading into it with Carman penciled in as the starter. Hopefully a solid depth piece, but a serviceable starter if needed.

Austin Ekeler, RB, LAC(3 years, $24 mil)-I'm not a fan of paying RB's, but Ekeler is a great receiving back and is great with power runs, as well. Just a tremendous scheme fit. Might put Mixon on the outs, as well.

Justin Madubuike, DT, Ravens(3 years, $55 mil)-In an effort to address the interior pass rush, I'm adding Madubuike. He has racked up a monster 10 sacks from the interior this year.

Mike Gesicki, TE, Patriots(1 year, $6 mil)-Gesicki has had a couple oof down years after a pair of back to back 700 yard seasons in Miami. He comes here on a one year prove it deal hoping to put up a big year and get paid next Off-Season.

After FA, I'm currently sitting at $79.5 estimated AAV and had $70 in cap space, but remember that structure can do a lot to squeeze those numbers down. On to the draft. I'll be using the NFL Mock Draft Database sim for this one, once again. Giving we'll have the 15th pick, WR is the most likely target of need in the 1st where there will be value. With Gesicki on a one year deal, Bowers isn't out of the question, either, and there's always hope a T falls(unlikely). Here goes...

#15=Malik Nabers, WR, LSU

#25=Amarius Mims, T, Georgia(Traded 2nd, 3rd, 2025 5th)

#112=Mar'Kese Irving, RB, Oregon

#150=Tate Ratledge, IOL, Georgia

#176=Beau Braden, S Maryland

#191=Johnny Dixon, CB, Penn State

#232=Jamari Thrash, WR, Louisville

#252=Tyreem Powell, LB, Rutgers


Nabers makes a lot of sense with us bringing in his college OC and the guy fits the same mood as other LSU standouts like Chase and Jefferson. He was also the 2nd highest rated player behind Verse at this point, so he was a decent value. As an exercise, I watched the rest of the 1st and pulled the trigger on the trade to get Mims after Fuaga went off the board. While extremely raw like his teammate Broderick Jones in last year's draft, this kid is physical freak. Beyond that, a lot of depth picks that I won't belabor too much.

[*ochocincos*]

How are you getting to still have $70 mill in cap AFTER free agency?

Bengals are estimated to have $70 mill BEFORE free agency, per Spotrac.
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cincinnati-bengals/cap/2024/

I don't see a mention to release anyone to free up more cap, and the guys you have added will cost...
Reader - $16 mill APY
Sample - $1.5 mill APY
Bailey - $1.25 mill APY
Williams - $13.6 mill APY
Fant - $5 mill
Ekeler - $8 mill APY
Gesicki - $6 mill
Madubuike - $18.3 mill APY
-------------------------
$69.65 mill

Bengals won't go right up to the cap before the draft, they'll reserve ~$10 mill if not more.

I realize the structure of the contracts means that it won't necessarily mean those averages will be the actual cap hits for 2024 so some could be lower, but I think you've gotten a little too optimistic with the FA adds...unless I'm missing something?
I would nearly guarantee they won't add 5 new starters via outside FA. Maybe 3 and then supplement with early draft picks.

For the draft...who is Brockers? You mean Brock Bowers?
Nabers and Mims would be solid adds, but I don't really know the other guys.

[Whatever]

(11-29-2023, 07:45 PM)ochocincos Wrote: How are you getting to still have $70 mill in cap AFTER free agency?

Bengals are estimated to have $70 mill BEFORE free agency, per Spotrac.
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cincinnati-bengals/cap/2024/

I don't see a mention to release anyone to free up more cap, and the guys you have added will cost...
Reader - $16 mill APY
Sample - $1.5 mill APY
Bailey - $1.25 mill APY
Williams - $13.6 mill APY
Fant - $5 mill
Ekeler - $8 mill APY
Gesicki - $6 mill
Madubuike - $18.3 mill APY
-------------------------
$69.65 mill

Bengals won't go right up to the cap before the draft, they'll reserve ~$10 mill if not more.

I realize the structure of the contracts means that it won't necessarily mean those averages will be the actual cap hits for 2024 so some could be lower, but I think you've gotten a little too optimistic with the FA adds...unless I'm missing something?
I would nearly guarantee they won't add 5 new starters via outside FA. Maybe 3 and then supplement with early draft picks.

For the draft...who is Brockers? You mean Brock Bowers?
Nabers and Mims would be solid adds, but I don't really know the other guys.

We had an estimated $70 before FA, not after.

Keep in mind that this is going off a $240 mil cap estimate, which is on the conservative side.  Some are predicting the cap to go as high as $256 mil.

As an example of what structure can do, Orlando Brown signed a deal worth $16 mil APY this past off-season and his cap hit this year is only $10.  Mike McGlinchey signed a deal with a $17.5 mil AAY and his 2023 cap hit was $6 million.  Jason Hargrave and Jawaan Taylor both got deals worth north of $20 mil AAV with $6 mil cap hits.  You can do a lot with structure.

Brockers is my Burrows, lol.  Total brain fart.  Thanks for the heads up.

I will get into write ups on the Day 3 guys when I get some time.  I was pressed for time when posting this.

[Tomcat]

(11-30-2023, 12:58 AM)Whatever Wrote: We had an estimated $70 before FA, not after.

Keep in mind that this is going off a $240 mil cap estimate, which is on the conservative side.  Some are predicting the cap to go as high as $256 mil.

As an example of what structure can do, Orlando Brown signed a deal worth $16 mil APY this past off-season and his cap hit this year is only $10.  Mike McGlinchey signed a deal with a $17.5 mil AAY and his 2023 cap hit was $6 million.  Jason Hargrave and Jawaan Taylor both got deals worth north of $20 mil AAV with $6 mil cap hits.  You can do a lot with structure.

Brockers is my Burrows, lol.  Total brain fart.  Thanks for the heads up.

I will get into write ups on the Day 3 guys when I get some time.  I was pressed for time when posting this.

What about Tee, just letting him walk in FA?

[*ochocincos*]

(11-30-2023, 12:58 AM)Whatever Wrote: We had an estimated $70 before FA, not after.

Keep in mind that this is going off a $240 mil cap estimate, which is on the conservative side.  Some are predicting the cap to go as high as $256 mil.

As an example of what structure can do, Orlando Brown signed a deal worth $16 mil APY this past off-season and his cap hit this year is only $10.  Mike McGlinchey signed a deal with a $17.5 mil AAY and his 2023 cap hit was $6 million.  Jason Hargrave and Jawaan Taylor both got deals worth north of $20 mil AAV with $6 mil cap hits.  You can do a lot with structure.

Brockers is my Burrows, lol.  Total brain fart.  Thanks for the heads up.

I will get into write ups on the Day 3 guys when I get some time.  I was pressed for time when posting this.

I think it was the structure of this sentence that made me think you were saying $70 mill AFTER FA:

Quote:After FA, I'm currently sitting at $79.5 estimated AAV and had $70 in cap space

Now that I reread it again, I see you meant $70 mill before and then $79.5 mill AAV for the new guys added, but will have to play cap structure games to make sure everyone fits within the cap for 2024.

[Whatever]

(11-30-2023, 10:05 AM)Tomcat Wrote: What about Tee, just letting him walk in FA?

For this one, yes.

Tee will have a tag value of $23 mil next year.  I don't see a long term deal being feasible.  With the current big board and draft position, there are very good odds we can draft a replacement in the first.  Tag and trade is a hypothetical option,but there's a lot of risk involved and it would be tough to predict.

[Luvnit2]

(11-30-2023, 11:47 AM)Whatever Wrote: For this one, yes.

Tee will have a tag value of $23 mil next year.  I don't see a long term deal being feasible.  With the current big board and draft position, there are very good odds we can draft a replacement in the first.  Tag and trade is a hypothetical option,but there's a lot of risk involved and it would be tough to predict.

I like Tee, but not sure why ay team would sign him for 4 years at close to 100 million (23 million a year).

He has never played a full 17 game schedule. I agreed with ML, a player can't help you on Sunday as he sits in the hot tub rehabbing.

Maybe I am wrong, but I think he get closer to 16 or 17 million a year. If he does and we let him walk, we get a 3rd round comp. pick in 2025. Or we can tag and trade him as well, I would think a team would be willing to pay him for 1 year (or they could negotiate long term deal) and give up a high draft pick, possibly a 1st or maybe a 2nd and a 4th.

[Whatever]

(11-30-2023, 12:43 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: I like Tee, but not sure why ay team would sign him for 4 years at close to 100 million (23 million a year).

He has never played a full 17 game schedule. I agreed with ML, a player can't help you on Sunday as he sits in the hot tub rehabbing.

Maybe I am wrong, but I think he get closer to 16 or 17 million a year. If he does and we let him walk, we get a 3rd round comp. pick in 2025. Or we can tag and trade him as well, I would think a team would be willing to pay him for 1 year (or they could negotiate long term deal) and give up a high draft pick, possibly a 1st or maybe a 2nd and a 4th.

There has been speculation that Tee's market number is significantly lower than the FT.  If that turns out to be true, then a tag and trade is unlikely.  It's also a strong FA WR market and I wouldn't be surprised if Diggs hits the trade block, as well.

If we get into Top 10 draft position, then my draft focus would shift to one of the Top 3 OT's as the likely target, tagging Tee becomes more attractive.  But potentially paying $23 mil for a one year rental for Higgins while spending a first on his replacement leaves a bad taste in my mouth.  

[Tomcat]

I would take the chance and tag Tee and trade him, there will be clubs that will have big time interest in him just like the Eagles did with Brown. Giants, Bears, Panthers all will be in the market for a quality WR. If not you have him for a SB run in 24.

[Hammerstripes]

(11-30-2023, 12:43 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: I like Tee, but not sure why ay team would sign him for 4 years at close to 100 million (23 million a year).

He has never played a full 17 game schedule. I agreed with ML, a player can't help you on Sunday as he sits in the hot tub rehabbing.

Maybe I am wrong, but I think he get closer to 16 or 17 million a year. If he does and we let him walk, we get a 3rd round comp. pick in 2025. Or we can tag and trade him as well, I would think a team would be willing to pay him for 1 year (or they could negotiate long term deal) and give up a high draft pick, possibly a 1st or maybe a 2nd and a 4th.

Not necessarily.  If we sign a good free agent, the it will offset that pick - just like Orlando Brown will offset the loss of Bates.

It would be absolutely stupid to let Tee walk in free agency.  He's easily worth a first rounder, and makes no sense to take a 4th rounder (3rd round comps are after the end of the round, so it's basically a 4th rounder) when you could get a first or at worst pick #33 from Carolina.

[Hammerstripes]

(11-29-2023, 03:38 PM)Whatever Wrote: Resign

DJ Reader(3 years, $48 mil)-Reader is one of the cornerstones of the defense. This really doesn't need explanation.

Drew Sample (2 years, $3 mil)-Good reserve/blocking TE.

Marcus Bailey (2 years, 2.5 mil)-Depth/ST's.

This actually does need explanation.  With as bad as our run defense has been along with his age, I can't see any way they would give him $16 million per year.  That's a pretty outrageous contract for Reader. 

[Tomcat]

(11-30-2023, 08:00 PM)Hammerstripes Wrote: Not necessarily.  If we sign a good free agent, the it will offset that pick - just like Orlando Brown will offset the loss of Bates.

It would be absolutely stupid to let Tee walk in free agency.  He's easily worth a first rounder, and makes no sense to take a 4th rounder (3rd round comps are after the end of the round, so it's basically a 4th rounder) when you could get a first or at worst pick #33 from Carolina.

This!

[Whatever]

(11-30-2023, 08:00 PM)Hammerstripes Wrote: Not necessarily.  If we sign a good free agent, the it will offset that pick - just like Orlando Brown will offset the loss of Bates.

It would be absolutely stupid to let Tee walk in free agency.  He's easily worth a first rounder, and makes no sense to take a 4th rounder (3rd round comps are after the end of the round, so it's basically a 4th rounder) when you could get a first or at worst pick #33 from Carolina.

The issue is that any team who would offer a trade for Higgins is going to try and fill that need in FA first.  It's a strong FA WR class like the likes of Mike Evans, Michael Pittman, Hollywood Brown, OBJ, Darnell Mooney, Calvin Ridley, Tyler Boyd, etc., etc.  

Another issue is that you don't know who else comes open on the trade market.  Diggs and the Bills appear headed for a divorce.  With Atwell going of for the Rams, it's possible Cooper Kupp hits the trade block, as well.  Throw in a draft class that has 5 WR's in the Top 20 prospects and the prospects for a big haul in exchange for Higgins becomes slimmer and slimmer.

If you can move him, it's probably going to be to a team that gets desperate during the draft and certainly not before the first wave of FA.  That $23 mil tag kills you in FA.  Using my FA as an example, if we estimate Madubuike and Williams at $10 and $8 mil 2024 cap numbers, the FT costs us both of those guys, plus Fant.  You lose definitely 2, potentially 3 starters holding out for a trade to get one pick?  And the guy you're trying to move is coming off the worst season of his career, btw.  

[Whatever]

(11-30-2023, 08:02 PM)Hammerstripes Wrote: This actually does need explanation.  With as bad as our run defense has been along with his age, I can't see any way they would give him $16 million per year.  That's a pretty outrageous contract for Reader. 

That's the estimated contract he will get per Spotrac.  Reader's actually played well this year and has a 79 PFF grade.  The run stuffing issues largely lay elsewhere.  Guys constantly trying to get the ball out rather than tackling is a big issue that results in yards after contact.

[Hammerstripes]

(12-01-2023, 01:43 PM)Whatever Wrote: That's the estimated contract he will get per Spotrac.  Reader's actually played well this year and has a 79 PFF grade.  The run stuffing issues largely lay elsewhere.  Guys constantly trying to get the ball out rather than tackling is a big issue that results in yards after contact.

I get it, but I can't see them dishing out that kind of money to a guy at this stage of his career.  I might be wrong, but it would be a complete change from the way they've done business the last couple years.  I could see a 1-2 year deal at a lower price, but its seems like $16 million per would put him out of reach,

[*Synric*]

I would say Amarius Mims doesn't declare now. He left the SEC Championship game early with that same left ankle. He has like 7 total college starts if you dont count his half a quarter last night.

[Whatever]

(12-03-2023, 06:47 AM)Synric Wrote: I would say Amarius Mims doesn't declare now. He left the SEC Championship game early  with that same left ankle. He has like 7 total college starts if you dont count his half a quarter last night.

Very possible, although nobody is drafting Mims for his college tape.  Teams will draft him because of his insanely high ceiling.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(11-29-2023, 03:38 PM)Whatever Wrote: Doing another one of these in my neverending attempts to return the franchise to the Dark Ages(j/k).  Here goes...

Coaching Hires

Bill Bedenbaugh, OL Coach, Oklahoma-Bedenbaugh has been the OL coach at OU since '13, and the amount of high end OL talent he's put into the NFL during that time is pretty astounding. He's also a spread offense disciple who should mesh well with Taylor.

Mike Denbrock, OC, LSU-Denbrock was the OC for UC during their recent peak under Fickell in '21 before moving onto LSU and helping them have one of the best passing attacks in the nation.

Resign

DJ Reader(3 years, $48 mil)-Reader is one of the cornerstones of the defense. This really doesn't need explanation.

Drew Sample (2 years, $3 mil)-Good reserve/blocking TE.

Marcus Bailey (2 years, 2.5 mil)-Depth/ST's.

RFA/ERFA Tenders-Trenton Irwin, Jake Browning, Cal Adomitas, Mitchell Wilcox

UFA

Connor Williams, C, Miami(5 years, $68 mil)-Williams is a high quality C that also has experience at G. With a 9.15 RAS, he should help with the athletic limitations of the OL group and solidify the position for years. Karras slides to LG to put Volson on the bench, or possibly he winds up on the bench himself if further upgrades can be found in the draft.

George Fant, T, Houston(1 year, $5 mil)-I'm still hoping to address RT in the draft, but I'm not heading into it with Carman penciled in as the starter. Hopefully a solid depth piece, but a serviceable starter if needed.

Austin Ekeler, RB, LAC(3 years, $24 mil)-I'm not a fan of paying RB's, but Ekeler is a great receiving back and is great with power runs, as well. Just a tremendous scheme fit. Might put Mixon on the outs, as well.

Justin Madubuike, DT, Ravens(3 years, $55 mil)-In an effort to address the interior pass rush, I'm adding Madubuike.  He has racked up a monster 10 sacks from the interior this year.  

Mike Gesicki, TE, Patriots(1 year, $6 mil)-Gesicki has had a couple oof down years after a pair of back to back 700 yard seasons in Miami.  He comes here on a one year prove it deal hoping to put up a big year and get paid next Off-Season.

After FA, I'm currently sitting at $79.5 estimated AAV and had $70 in cap space, but remember that structure can do a lot to squeeze those numbers down. On to the draft. I'll be using the NFL Mock Draft Database sim for this one, once again.  Giving we'll have the 15th pick, WR is the most likely target of need in the 1st where there will be value.  With Gesicki on a one year deal, Bowers isn't out of the question, either, and there's always hope a T falls(unlikely).  Here goes...

#15=Malik Nabers, WR, LSU

#25=Amarius Mims, T, Georgia(Traded 2nd, 3rd, 2025 5th)

#112=Mar'Kese Irving, RB, Oregon

#150=Tate Ratledge, IOL, Georgia

#176=Beau Braden, S Maryland

#191=Johnny Dixon, CB, Penn State

#232=Jamari Thrash, WR, Louisville

#252=Tyreem Powell, LB, Rutgers


Nabers makes a lot of sense with us bringing in his college OC and the guy fits the same mood as other LSU standouts like Chase and Jefferson.  He was also the 2nd highest rated player behind Verse at this point, so he was a decent value.  As an exercise, I watched the rest of the 1st and pulled the trigger on the trade to get Mims after Fuaga went off the board. While extremely raw like his teammate Broderick Jones in last year's draft, this kid is physical freak.  Beyond that, a lot of depth picks that I won't belabor too much.

Great job Whatever. Love the coaching hires, FA and this Draft. I think we might even be drafting higher than 15 now as we might 
lose out with Browning at QB. I do like Nabers, and Bucky Irving especially, but not as big on Mims and him always being injured, 
he does have a very high upside though. Getting Johnny Dixon that late would be a steal IMO.

I like it all, like I said, great job.

[Hammerstripes]

(12-01-2023, 01:05 PM)Whatever Wrote: The issue is that any team who would offer a trade for Higgins is going to try and fill that need in FA first.  It's a strong FA WR class like the likes of Mike Evans, Michael Pittman, Hollywood Brown, OBJ, Darnell Mooney, Calvin Ridley, Tyler Boyd, etc., etc.  

Another issue is that you don't know who else comes open on the trade market.  Diggs and the Bills appear headed for a divorce.  With Atwell going of for the Rams, it's possible Cooper Kupp hits the trade block, as well.  Throw in a draft class that has 5 WR's in the Top 20 prospects and the prospects for a big haul in exchange for Higgins becomes slimmer and slimmer.

If you can move him, it's probably going to be to a team that gets desperate during the draft and certainly not before the first wave of FA.  That $23 mil tag kills you in FA.  Using my FA as an example, if we estimate Madubuike and Williams at $10 and $8 mil 2024 cap numbers, the FT costs us both of those guys, plus Fant.  You lose definitely 2, potentially 3 starters holding out for a trade to get one pick?  And the guy you're trying to move is coming off the worst season of his career, btw.  

A lot of those guy are 30 or older.  Most teams view Tee as a legit 1.  There will be a line for him if he's available.  We can work out a trade and have him off the books on day 1.  It won't be an issue.  You know his agent already has something in the works.  

I still don't see how having his tag costs us that much until he gets moved.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(12-08-2023, 03:20 PM)Hammerstripes Wrote: A lot of those guy are 30 or older.  Most teams view Tee as a legit 1.  There will be a line for him if he's available.  We can work out a trade and have him off the books on day 1.  It won't be an issue.  You know his agent already has something in the works.  

I still don't see how having his tag costs us that much until he gets moved.

Truth, Tee is still pretty young.