Why the Safeties Play So Loose

[Sled21]

(12-06-2023, 04:33 PM)casear2727 Wrote: We should understand that Lou's greatest work is when we have a lead or playing a team is one dimensional.  He has always played zone and he has always played safeties deep.  He doesnt care about yards, as he has said a million times.  We are very good in the redzone.

I too am sick of hearing about Bates and Bell.  No one wanted to pay Bates.  He laid down and pouted for at least one season.  We went to the Super Bowl in 2021, Dax Hill had more interceptions and pass breakups in his first 8 starts than Bates did that entire season.

Bates seemingly led the team in missed tackles every season.  Bates gave up BOTH TDs vs KC in the AFCCG.

Bell was not athletic thus we were not as versatile - Bell always had twice as many snaps in the box than he did at free safety.  He did 4 interceptions last year, but he only had one the previous 2 years.

Bates and Bell are both good players, smart with excellent intangibles. But we need to stop acting like they were Ed Reed & Troy Polamalu.  Our young guys are learning fast and their speed and athleticism is showing.  Lou is primarily a zone guy and these guys will eventually read WRs tendencies against the zone much better as time goes on.  Same with scramble drill, which has been a serious issue.  Many complain about the TE, which is legitimate, but against our defense the TE finds a hole quickly and sits, they are not running elaborate routes.


What some people will not like hearing is that our biggest weakness in the passing game is Mike Hilton.   He is playing way more snaps at Free Safety because he is a liability when we play man coverage.   I see Dax, Battle and DJ improving and flashing at times.  I agree with someone earlier suggesting we pick up a true free safety, that would allow Dax and Battle to much more versatile.

Great post!

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(12-06-2023, 06:09 PM)coachmcneil71 Wrote: Dax had the opportunity to learn from two very solid vet safeties that were both team leaders. Apparently, he didn't pay much attention because the rookie is running circles around him and it's very obvious that the rookie learns much faster.

I don't dislike Dax and I understand that this is his first year as a starter. He deserves to be viewed with some patience. Ts, we're moving into the back half of a full season and he's not showing much improvement. Battle already looks like a vet and he's started 2-3 games. 

Kirk was about to have a field day if not for the groin injury.  

We don't know if Kirk was going to have a field day or not. I will wait till the end of the season before I judge and see if Dax 
improves, I bet he will as the young players in Battle, Turner gain experience and we can play more aggressive as the NFL game
slows down for all of them. As Casaer said, Mike Hilton struggles at times, same with Chido after the injury.

It isn't all on Dax being the weak link and let's not act like Bates was great while he was here either.

Once Dax and Battle gain quality experience and get comfortable we could honestly be better at Safety.

Also like Casaer said, let's not act like Bates and Bell were Ed Reed and Troy Polamalu or something.

[*Go Cards*]

(12-06-2023, 09:16 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Awuzie is a UFA next season. I don’t expect him to be back with CTB and Turner here now.

Have not expected him back either, but with his subpar season and him getting a little older, think he will be 29 going into next season. Albeit that's not ancient yet some players do lose a step around this age, especially coming off injuries. So maybe he is more affordable than I was thinking going into the year, doubt it but who knows. Or maybe other teams see that he is not back to full speed where he was darn near a shut down corner before for Bengals and not willing to give him a long contract in case he does not become that guy again.

Either things happen and he was reasonable then imo he would be worth a gamble that he was just not fully healthy and could very well be next year and possibly giving the Bengals an elite CB room.

All that being said I agree with you and think some team will ante up more than the Bengals will be willing to invest with the young bucks CTB and Turner already in place. 

[casear2727]

(12-06-2023, 06:09 PM)coachmcneil71 Wrote: Dax had the opportunity to learn from two very solid vet safeties that were both team leaders. Apparently, he didn't pay much attention because the rookie is running circles around him and it's very obvious that the rookie learns much faster.

I don't dislike Dax and I understand that this is his first year as a starter. He deserves to be viewed with some patience. Ts, we're moving into the back half of a full season and he's not showing much improvement. Battle already looks like a vet and he's started 2-3 games. 

Kirk was about to have a field day if not for the groin injury.  

Safeties are the most difficult to grade or even have a quality 'look-test".  We have no idea what their responsibilities are on each play.  When a CB, LB or other safety have a screw up it is the safety that has to cover or show up at the last minute because they are usually deeper than everyone else.  

We see the closest defender and blame him.  But again, we are ignorant to the actual responsibilities on that play.

Dax has been fine, his athleticism is apparent.  He has played so many different positions, he is a quality asset. 

   

[puddycat]

I'm also getting concerned that the Bengals don't trust Battle to play single high (he's not the fastest). Instead Hilton seems to drop back to FS and Dax moves up into the box. But Hilton isn't a burner either. We do play in a division that runs the ball a lot. Just something I'm paying attention to.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(12-06-2023, 02:42 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Bates tackled like shit here for years and he gets a pass, Bates gave up 2 TD's in the AFC Championship against the Chiefs that 
were huge in us losing that game and he gets a pass. Bates played not to get hurt in a contract year and he gets a pass...

But Dax Hill shows some growing pains in his first year starting and he is just terrible.

When you're a decent defense and you're winning lots of games, a lot of things are able to get a pass. I was never on the "pay Bates tons of money" train largely because of the things you mentioned. I didn't expect they'd let Bell go too when he got a very reasonable contract.

When you're on arguably the worst defense in the NFL and currently out of the playoffs, things get less of a pass. It's not even the safeties, though, so while I do wish they kept Bell to go with Dax, I don't think the safeties are the only problem. The LBs are playing pretty darn poorly, the DL is pretty disappointing, and they are all guys who got paid.

[Forever Spinning Vinyl]

(12-06-2023, 03:00 AM)coachmcneil71 Wrote: Smh...Battle, he is coming along. Turner got boxed out and completely blocked on the Engram TD. Hill done the same. Hill also didn't finish and gave up a tuddy to Jim Bob from nowhere USA. 

Bell and Bates are vets. They are both strides above everyone in the secondary except for CTB. Personally, I don't think that Hill will be here for much more than a cup of coffee unless he turns it loose and plays up to his potential. I get it, first year starting at FS. He better make leaps and bounds between this year and next if he wants to keep his job.  

Hill doesn't finish and he tackles like *****. 

Missed tackles, huh? Looks like Dax has some catching up to do.
Daxton Hill
2022 15 games 2 starts 1 missed tackle
2023 12 starts 7 missed tackles

Jessie Bates III
2018 16 starts 10 missed tackles
2019 16 starts 17 missed tackles
2020 16 starts 16 missed tackles
2021 15 starts 7 missed tackles
2022 16 starts 7 missed tackles
---------------------------------------
2023 12 starts 8 missed tackles

[Nicomo Cosca]

(12-07-2023, 02:56 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: When you're a decent defense and you're winning lots of games, a lot of things are able to get a pass. I was never on the "pay Bates tons of money" train largely because of the things you mentioned. I didn't expect they'd let Bell go too when he got a very reasonable contract.

When you're on arguably the worst defense in the NFL and currently out of the playoffs, things get less of a pass. It's not even the safeties, though, so while I do wish they kept Bell to go with Dax, I don't think the safeties are the only problem. The LBs are playing pretty darn poorly, the DL is pretty disappointing, and they are all guys who got paid.

The LBers have easily been the biggest disappointment for me this season. At least the DL finally had a nice game against JAX. 4 sacks, and Reader looked like the 2021 version that was so dominant during the playoff run.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(12-07-2023, 02:58 AM)Forever Spinning Vinyl Wrote: Missed tackles, huh? Looks like Dax has some catching up to do.
Daxton Hill
2022 15 games 2 starts 1 missed tackle
2023 12 starts 7 missed tackles

Jessie Bates III
2018 16 starts 10 missed tackles
2019 16 starts 17 missed tackles
2020 16 starts 16 missed tackles
2021 15 starts 7 missed tackles
2022 16 starts 7 missed tackles
---------------------------------------
2023 12 starts 8 missed tackles

I mostly agree with the general point you're making, but please use Missed Tackle % rather than just accumulation. Different safeties have different responsibilities, and different years have different trends.

Guy A might miss 8 tackles and Guy B might miss 10 tackles, but if Guy A made 40 tackles and Guy B made 80 tackles, Guy B is a much better tackler than Guy A (though I guess in this random example both are very bad).

You saying 15 games 2 starts for Daxton last year and putting 1 missed tackle is vastly misleading because he only made 16 tackles all year, which makes any attempts at comparing with that specific year pointless. Bates had over 100 tackles each of his first 3 years.

Dax 
2023: 8.0% missed tackle

Bates 
2018: 8.3%
2019: 14.5%
2020: 12.8%
2021: 7.4%
2022: 9.0%
2023: 8.0%

Still a better tackler than Bates, but also a more honest comparison.

[Sled21]

(12-06-2023, 06:09 PM)coachmcneil71 Wrote:
Dax had the opportunity to learn from two very solid vet safeties that were both team leaders. Apparently, he didn't pay much attention because the rookie is running circles around him and it's very obvious that the rookie learns much faster.

I don't dislike Dax and I understand that this is his first year as a starter. He deserves to be viewed with some patience. Ts, we're moving into the back half of a full season and he's not showing much improvement. Battle already looks like a vet and he's started 2-3 games. 

Kirk was about to have a field day if not for the groin injury.  

Now let's be fair.... Lou had Dax learning numerous positions last year so he could better understand the overall scheme this year and take over for Bates. I don't see any of the rookies doing that this year. 

[SunsetBengal]

(12-06-2023, 06:09 PM)coachmcneil71 Wrote: Dax had the opportunity to learn from two very solid vet safeties that were both team leaders. Apparently, he didn't pay much attention because the rookie is running circles around him and it's very obvious that the rookie learns much faster.

I don't dislike Dax and I understand that this is his first year as a starter. He deserves to be viewed with some patience. Ts, we're moving into the back half of a full season and he's not showing much improvement. Battle already looks like a vet and he's started 2-3 games. 

Kirk was about to have a field day if not for the groin injury.  

Dax also was bounced around between CB and S last year, due to injuries, so it's not like preparing to take over for Bates was the only thing asked of him last year.  

[Forever Spinning Vinyl]

(12-07-2023, 03:15 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: I mostly agree with the general point you're making, but please use Missed Tackle % rather than just accumulation. Different safeties have different responsibilities, and different years have different trends.

Guy A might miss 8 tackles and Guy B might miss 10 tackles, but if Guy A made 40 tackles and Guy B made 80 tackles, Guy B is a much better tackler than Guy A (though I guess in this random example both are very bad).

You saying 15 games 2 starts for Daxton last year and putting 1 missed tackle is vastly misleading because he only made 16 tackles all year, which makes any attempts at comparing with that specific year pointless. Bates had over 100 tackles each of his first 3 years.

Dax 
2023: 8.0% missed tackle

Bates 
2018: 8.3%
2019: 14.5%
2020: 12.8%
2021: 7.4%
2022: 9.0%
2023: 8.0%

Still a better tackler than Bates, but also a more honest comparison.

Basically, you just went and typed up a bunch of shit to say the exact same thing that I said. Except that you were being misleading by leaving out that 1 missed tackle and 16 tackles is a 5.9% missed tackle rate.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(12-07-2023, 11:12 AM)Forever Spinning Vinyl Wrote: Basically, you just went and typed up a bunch of shit to say the exact same thing that I said. Except that you were being misleading by leaving out that 1 missed tackle and 16 tackles is a 5.9% missed tackle rate.

Basically I went and typed up a bunch of shit to show that using static counting numbers to compare guys is highly flawed. 

I also typed that bunch of shit to point out that comparing a 16 tackle rookie season and a 111 tackle rookie season is absolutely pointless at best. That's along the lines of saying Chase Brown has a higher YPC in his rookie season than Barry Sanders did while not mentioning that Chase Brown's sample size is 11 carries and Barry Sanders was 280. There's a reason that comparative qualification minimums exist.

[casear2727]

(12-07-2023, 02:23 AM)puddycat Wrote: I'm also getting concerned that the Bengals don't trust Battle to play single high (he's not the fastest).  Instead Hilton seems to drop back to FS and Dax moves up into the box.  But Hilton isn't a burner either.  We do play in a division that runs the ball a lot.  Just something I'm paying attention to.

I believe Hilton at FS is more about Hilton's inability to play man-to-man downfield.  KC has taken advantage of Hilton more than others, but other opponents will catch up.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(12-07-2023, 02:56 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: When you're a decent defense and you're winning lots of games, a lot of things are able to get a pass. I was never on the "pay Bates tons of money" train largely because of the things you mentioned. I didn't expect they'd let Bell go too when he got a very reasonable contract.

When you're on arguably the worst defense in the NFL and currently out of the playoffs, things get less of a pass. It's not even the safeties, though, so while I do wish they kept Bell to go with Dax, I don't think the safeties are the only problem. The LBs are playing pretty darn poorly, the DL is pretty disappointing, and they are all guys who got paid.

Completely agree, the Safeties namely Battle have just gotten better and better. It is the vets at LB and on the DL that need to 
play much better. Hilton and Chido haven't played great this year either. This along with the youth and the Defense is bound to 
not be playing as good as they should.

(12-07-2023, 02:58 AM)Forever Spinning Vinyl Wrote: Missed tackles, huh? Looks like Dax has some catching up to do.
Daxton Hill
2022 15 games 2 starts 1 missed tackle
2023 12 starts 7 missed tackles

Jessie Bates III
2018 16 starts 10 missed tackles
2019 16 starts 17 missed tackles
2020 16 starts 16 missed tackles
2021 15 starts 7 missed tackles
2022 16 starts 7 missed tackles
---------------------------------------
2023 12 starts 8 missed tackles

Thanks FSV. Good stuff.

Helps prove my point.

(12-07-2023, 03:15 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: I mostly agree with the general point you're making, but please use Missed Tackle % rather than just accumulation. Different safeties have different responsibilities, and different years have different trends.

Guy A might miss 8 tackles and Guy B might miss 10 tackles, but if Guy A made 40 tackles and Guy B made 80 tackles, Guy B is a much better tackler than Guy A (though I guess in this random example both are very bad).

You saying 15 games 2 starts for Daxton last year and putting 1 missed tackle is vastly misleading because he only made 16 tackles all year, which makes any attempts at comparing with that specific year pointless. Bates had over 100 tackles each of his first 3 years.

Dax 
2023: 8.0% missed tackle

Bates 
2018: 8.3%
2019: 14.5%
2020: 12.8%
2021: 7.4%
2022: 9.0%
2023: 8.0%

Still a better tackler than Bates, but also a more honest comparison.

Thanks for this as well TLL, gives even more information in proving that Dax isn't as bad of a tackler as Bates has been.

Dax is young as well and should get better. Tackling was a strong suit of Dax Hill in college unlike Bates.

(12-07-2023, 11:12 AM)Forever Spinning Vinyl Wrote: Basically, you just went and typed up a bunch of shit to say the exact same thing that I said. Except that you were being misleading by leaving out that 1 missed tackle and 16 tackles is a 5.9% missed tackle rate.

(12-07-2023, 11:29 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Basically I went and typed up a bunch of shit to show that using static counting numbers to compare guys is highly flawed. 

I also typed that bunch of shit to point out that comparing a 16 tackle rookie season and a 111 tackle rookie season is absolutely pointless at best. That's along the lines of saying Chase Brown has a higher YPC in his rookie season than Barry Sanders did while not mentioning that Chase Brown's sample size is 11 carries and Barry Sanders was 280. There's a reason that comparative qualification minimums exist.

Nah, you guys both gave info to support the truth, don't be so hard on yourselves lol 

[coachmcneil71]

(12-07-2023, 02:48 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Completely agree, the Safeties namely Battle have just gotten better and better. It is the vets at LB and on the DL that need to 
play much better. Hilton and Chido haven't played great this year either. This along with the youth and the Defense is bound to 
not be playing as good as they should.


Thanks FSV. Good stuff.

Helps prove my point.


Thanks for this as well TLL, gives even more information in proving that Dax isn't as bad of a tackler as Bates has been.

Dax is young as well and should get better. Tackling was a strong suit of Dax Hill in college unlike Bates.



Nah, you guys both gave info to support the truth, don't be so hard on yourselves lol 

The funny thing here is that I mostly agree with what many others and yourself have been saying. Bates is having a nice year, but he is also playing in a weaker division. Bates was always more of center fielder type S. The reason that I'm being hard on Dax is because he has the ability to be both a bruising S and a center fielder type.

For the record it's the leadership and loss of Bell that hurt the most. Fortunately Battle looks like a solid hit in the draft. He's still a rookie though.

I've already mentioned that they are young and have an opportunity to be good as they grow. I also agree that the inability to slow down the run up front and injuries obviously, have been the most disappointing things about this season. 

Lastly, you are coming off like a real DH here. I'm not sure where you came up with the idea that I have ever considered Bates a tackling machine? I've never said that shit ever! I said he was making a difference for the ATL , and he is. He is also in a weaker division. Ts, take your smug ass on down the road.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(12-08-2023, 01:48 AM)coachmcneil71 Wrote: The funny thing here is that I mostly agree with what many others and yourself have been saying. Bates is having a nice year, but he is also playing in a weaker division. Bates was always more of center fielder type S. The reason that I'm being hard on Dax is because he has the ability to be both a bruising S and a center fielder type.

For the record it's the leadership and loss of Bell that hurt the most. Fortunately Battle looks like a solid hit in the draft. He's still a rookie though.

I've already mentioned that they are young and have an opportunity to be good as they grow. I also agree that the inability to slow down the run up front and injuries obviously, have been the most disappointing things about this season. 

Lastly, you are coming off like a real DH here. I'm not sure where you came up with the idea that I have ever considered Bates a tackling machine? I've never said that shit ever! I said he was making a difference for the ATL , and he is. He is also in a weaker division. Ts, take your smug ass on down the road.

Sorry if I was coming off as a DH Coach. I am usually about as nice a guy as there is on here. I also don't like to be smug ever.

Apologies.

[coachmcneil71]

(12-08-2023, 04:48 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Sorry if I was coming off as a DH Coach. I am usually about as nice a guy as there is on here. I also don't like to be smug ever.

Apologies.

Back at you man. I know that you're a good dude. I actually started chuckling about it earlier. Fussing over a win over what will probably be a division winning team.....   A nice win over a good team in primetime is to be savored.