Remaining Games Prediction And Playoff Chances

[BFritz21]

I know the week's not offer yet but tonight's games really have no impact on our playoff chances, so I figured I'd see what everyone thinks of our remaining schedule and our playoff chances. It helps that we're facing a few backups in the final few games, and I originally was hoping that we'd lose as many as possible so we could draft highly so we could take Bowers at tight end, but now I'm just hoping that we finish strong and make the playoffs, because now it would be a waste to win our way out of drafting early if we're not going to make a run at anything.

It's crazy that we're even talking about the possibility of making the playoffs, but here we are.

Remaining games:

Week 15 against the Vikings.

The Vikings will be on their third-string QB after Cousins got hurt and Dobbs got benched. I think our crowd gets into it and we take them down.

Week 16 against the Steelers.

Another team with an injury to their quarterback and, even if he comes back for our game, what are the odds he's 100% and we could come into Pittsburgh on fire.

Pickens seems upset and let's just hope the entire locker room is in a storm and we can knock them off.

I think we win there.

At Chiefs.

Mahomes seemed to be going crazy and just didn't seem like he was on his A game. It's going to be tough and I think we could win, especially if they really have the kind of turmoil that it seems like they're having lately, but let's give them a W.

Week 18 when the Browns come to town.

With the home crowd going nuts, I think we get revenge on the Browns and win pretty easily.

That would leave us at 10-7.

Do you agree with my predictions? Do you think 10-7 gets us in?

[*Nately120*]

At this point I'm expecting 10-7, but I'll admit it's a bit nerve wracking we are expecting the Bengals to job out Dobbs and the Vikings, because not so long ago Dobbs was the backup QB king and now he's back to being oh-so benchable while Browning is the next "surefire should be starter."

The successful backup QB is all too often a real shooting star of a player. Anyways, I'll say the Chiefs game is a toss up, but if we lose to the Vikings or Steelers or the overachieving Browns that'll be various shades of botched on our part.

[Essex Johnson]

(12-11-2023, 06:44 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: I know the week's not offer yet but tonight's games really have no impact on our playoff chances, so I figured I'd see what everyone thinks of our remaining schedule and our playoff chances. It helps that we're facing a few backups in the final few games, and I originally was hoping that we'd lose as many as possible so we could draft highly so we could take Bowers at tight end, but now I'm just hoping that we finish strong and make the playoffs, because now it would be a waste to win our way out of drafting early if we're not going to make a run at anything.

It's crazy that we're even talking about the possibility of making the playoffs, but here we are.

Remaining games:

Week 15 against the Vikings.

The Vikings will be on their third-string QB after Cousins got hurt and Dobbs got benched. I think our crowd gets into it and we take them down.

Week 16 against the Steelers.

Another team with an injury to their quarterback and, even if he comes back for our game, what are the odds he's 100% and we could come into Pittsburgh on fire.

Pickens seems upset and let's just hope the entire locker room is in a storm and we can knock them off.

I think we win there.

At Chiefs.

Mahomes seemed to be going crazy and just didn't seem like he was on his A game. It's going to be tough and I think we could win, especially if they really have the kind of turmoil that it seems like they're having lately, but let's give them a W.

Week 18 when the Browns come to town.

With the home crowd going nuts, I think we get revenge on the Browns and win pretty easily.

That would leave us at 10-7.

Do you agree with my predictions? Do you think 10-7 gets us in?

[Essex Johnson]

I have them 3-1 also but our schedule seems tougher than other teams so likely 2-2, 10-7 but we are bad on tiebreakers

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

Screw it. I say we go 4-0. They are all winnable games, the Browns game honestly is the one that worries me the most, but if
we aren't turning the ball over and we slow down their running game we should win. Flacco looks good though, sorry to say.

Mahomes and the Chiefs don't look good to me at all right now. Right now we are clicking in all 3 phases and with our OL and
our DL playing so much better we will be very tough to beat. The coaching in December is back, our running game is back, we
have a QB that is perfect in the system, we are stopping the run on Defense and we are opportunistic.

[motoarch]

10-7 will probably not get us in.

People keep saying this without looking at the other teams schedules and understanding we have almost no tie breaking winning scenarios.

Yes it could get us in but we need a lot of things to fall out way on top of going 3-1 from here out.

According to this site we have a 29% chance. Which is actually not too bad all things considered but it's going to be tough.

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/nflpostseasonprob.html

[Whacked]

This week ..of relevance:

Steelers at the Colts. I got the Colts

Chicago (who just knocked off the Lions) at the Browns. You never know.

Cowboys at the Bills. Will be a great game!

Irrelevant but I think the Jags beat the Rat Turds

Texans at the Titans
Mehh. Should be an easy one for the Texans

Broncos at the Lions
Will be a good one.

[BFritz21]

(12-11-2023, 07:17 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Screw it. I say we go 4-0. They are all winnable games, the Browns game honestly is the one that worries me the most, but if
we aren't turning the ball over and we slow down their running game we should win. Flacco looks good though, sorry to say.

Mahomes and the Chiefs don't look good to me at all right now. Right now we are clicking in all 3 phases and with our OL and
our DL playing so much better we will be very tough to beat. The coaching in December is back, our running game is back, we
have a QB that is perfect in the system, we are stopping the run on Defense and we are opportunistic.

I was hesitant to put a win against the Chiefs because I didn't want to seem like a homer, but I agree that they look sloppy and not clicking on all cylinders like they normally do.

I'm hoping Mahomes salty attitude lasts and rubs off on to his teammates. 

Mixon does look good running hard and then I'm also excited because I think Brown can offer a change-of-pace and fresh legs to give Mixon a break.

Let's just hope everything falls our way and that Texans loss doesn't come back to haunt us.

[sandwedge]

I say we put all 5 DBs on Maauto and not worry about their other WRs, they can't catch anyway..

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(12-11-2023, 08:45 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: I was hesitant to put a win against the Chiefs because I didn't want to seem like a homer, but I agree that they look sloppy and not clicking on all cylinders like they normally do.

I'm hoping Mahomes salty attitude lasts and rubs off on to his teammates. 

Mixon does look good running hard and then I'm also excited because I think Brown can offer a change-of-pace and fresh legs to give Mixon a break.

Let's just hope everything falls our way and that Texans loss doesn't come back to haunt us.

It isn't being a homer, we are playing better than them right now, plain and simple. We just beat the Jags in their place who were 
playing for the #1 seed in the AFC before we beat them and we just followed that game up with beating the Colts who were on a
roll winning 4 in a row and have the 2nd best pass rush in the NFL.

Mahomes has been spoiled, same with Kelce, they could very well implode. Imagine us beating them in Arrowhead with Browning.

If we win out, we will be fine and the Texans loss won't hurt us with Stroud maybe being out a game or more.

The Broncos are the one team besides us right now that are damn scary in the AFC. The Ravens are still great, but they will have a 
hard time beating us 3 times in a row on the season when we are playing our best right at the right time. Like I said though, the 
Browns still scare me a touch especially with Flacco looking good, but we can beat them if we keep playing like we are.

I am only mentioning the Broncos, Ravens and Browns because I think they will all be in the Playoffs.

(12-11-2023, 09:03 PM)sandwedge Wrote: I say we put all 5 DBs on Maauto and not worry about their other WRs, they can't catch anyway..

Not a bad plan lol

[TheCincinnatiKid]

(12-11-2023, 07:41 PM)motoarch Wrote: 10-7 will probably not get us in.

People keep saying this without looking at the other teams schedules and understanding we have almost no tie breaking winning scenarios.

Yes it could get us in but we need a lot of things to fall out way on top of going 3-1 from here out.

According to this site we have a 29% chance.  Which is actually not too bad all things considered but it's going to be tough.

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/nflpostseasonprob.html

While the tiebreakers aren't generally in our favour, people are only looking at conference record when they say that. We're forgetting we have H2H wins over 3 of the teams currently in this mix.

We want the Texans to win the AFC South. That removes that bad tiebreaker. I think the Texans are quite likely to have the division lead after next week.

Cleveland... tbh forget about them, I think they're going to be in.

Pittsburgh... well if we go 10-7, it's likely in part due to winning in PIT. If we win there, I doubt the Steelers go 3-0 against the Colts/Seahawks/Ravens. Not impossible, but I think if we beat them, 10-7 would finish above them.

Indy... I just don't think are that good, and won't get to 10 wins.

Houston... I think they might be trouble for us if they don't win their division.

Denver are certainly a potential party pooper for us.

Buffalo... if we get to 10-7, they'd need to win out to have a better record. They won't win out imo.

I know H2H isn't the only thing in play, but honestly I think if we get to 10-7 the teams most likely there at 10-7 too are the Jags/Bills... both of whom we beat. The major caveat is Denver, who seem to be rolling. 

[sandwedge]

(12-11-2023, 09:23 PM)TheCincinnatiKid Wrote: While the tiebreakers aren't generally in our favour, people are only looking at conference record when they say that. We're forgetting we have H2H wins over 3 of the teams currently in this mix.

We want the Texans to win the AFC South. That removes that bad tiebreaker. I think the Texans are quite likely to have the division lead after next week.

Cleveland... tbh forget about them, I think they're going to be in.

Pittsburgh... well if we go 10-7, it's likely in part due to winning in PIT. If we win there, I doubt the Steelers go 3-0 against the Colts/Seahawks/Ravens. Not impossible, but I think if we beat them, 10-7 would finish above them.

Indy... I just don't think are that good, and won't get to 10 wins.

Houston... I think they might be trouble for us if they don't win their division.

Denver are certainly a potential party pooper for us.

Buffalo... if we get to 10-7, they'd need to win out to have a better record. They won't win out imo.

I know H2H isn't the only thing in play, but honestly I think if we get to 10-7 the teams most likely there at 10-7 too are the Jags/Bills... both of whom we beat. The major caveat is Denver, who seem to be rolling. 

I know we looked not so good in the beginning, but Denver was looking gawd awful! Let's hope they stub a big toe down the stretch!!

[*Awful Llama*]

Does Saturday's slate of games have a lot riding on it?  Well, if it were a train, Saturday would look like this:



Chock-a-block full of action and intrigue, you might say.  

Several have mentioned the Pitt/Indy game, and I wonder if it may be better for us if Pitt were to beat Indy?  We can hand the Steelers a loss the following week, and then they close with Seattle and Baltimore. So realistically, they could go 0-3 in those games (maybe 1-2?) and be done, while Indy has what would appear to be an easier schedule (Atlanta/Vegas/Houston).  Meh, food for thought.  

Three and one seems doable, but the football gods are a fickle lot, so I worry about us dropping a game we shouldn't, even if we do manage a win against KC or Cleveland.  I'll hope for 11-6 or 10-7, but 9-8 may be the final result.   That's still quite an accomplishment after the way the season went off the rails, as it were.  

[*rfaulk34*]

(12-11-2023, 09:59 PM)Awful Llama Wrote: Does Saturday's slate of games have a lot riding on it?  Well, if it were a train, Saturday would look like this:



Chock-a-block full of action and intrigue, you might say.  

Several have mentioned the Pitt/Indy game, and I wonder if it may be better for us if Pitt were to beat Indy?  We can hand the Steelers a loss the following week, and then they close with Seattle and Baltimore. So realistically, they could go 0-3 in those games (maybe 1-2?) and be done, while Indy has what would appear to be an easier schedule (Atlanta/Vegas/Houston).  Meh, food for thought.  

Three and one seems doable, but the football gods are a fickle lot, so I worry about us dropping a game we shouldn't, even if we do manage a win against KC or Cleveland.  I'll hope for 11-6 or 10-7, but 9-8 may be the final result.   That's still quite an accomplishment after the way the season went off the rails, as it were.  

Nah. Bengals have the tie breaker over Indy. Need Pitt to be a full game behind at the end of the season. Plus, if they lose and the Bengals beat them, there's a real chance Tomlin's 'no losing seasons' record is dunzo. Be nice to see them lose out and end up 7-10.

[*michaelsean*]

If there are more than two teams with the same record, doesn’t H2H go out the window?

[*michaelsean*]

(12-11-2023, 06:44 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: I know the week's not offer yet but tonight's games really have no impact on our playoff chances, so I figured I'd see what everyone thinks of our remaining schedule and our playoff chances. It helps that we're facing a few backups in the final few games, and I originally was hoping that we'd lose as many as possible so we could draft highly so we could take Bowers at tight end, but now I'm just hoping that we finish strong and make the playoffs, because now it would be a waste to win our way out of drafting early if we're not going to make a run at anything.

It's crazy that we're even talking about the possibility of making the playoffs, but here we are.

Remaining games:

Week 15 against the Vikings.

The Vikings will be on their third-string QB after Cousins got hurt and Dobbs got benched. I think our crowd gets into it and we take them down.

Week 16 against the Steelers.

Another team with an injury to their quarterback and, even if he comes back for our game, what are the odds he's 100% and we could come into Pittsburgh on fire.

Pickens seems upset and let's just hope the entire locker room is in a storm and we can knock them off.

I think we win there.

At Chiefs.

Mahomes seemed to be going crazy and just didn't seem like he was on his A game. It's going to be tough and I think we could win, especially if they really have the kind of turmoil that it seems like they're having lately, but let's give them a W.

Week 18 when the Browns come to town.

With the home crowd going nuts, I think we get revenge on the Browns and win pretty easily.

That would leave us at 10-7.

Do you agree with my predictions? Do you think 10-7 gets us in?

I’d say Mullens is actually their 2nd string QB. They just thought they found something with Dobbs and ran with it. Btw…they were wrong.

[Tomkat]

(12-11-2023, 06:50 PM)Nately120 Wrote: ... because not so long ago Dobbs was the backup QB king and now he's back to being oh-so benchable while Browning is the next "surefire should be starter."

The successful backup QB is all too often a real shooting star of a player. 

This subject could be it's own thread... "Will Browning be the next Dobbs?"

[Ctfan73]

(12-11-2023, 11:09 PM)michaelsean Wrote: If there are more than two teams with the same record, doesn’t H2H go out the window?

Not necessarily. Head to head applies if one team has beaten or lost to all of the other teams. If the Bengals finish tied with Buffalo and Indy it would go to the Bengals.

Also, if three teams are tied and two are in the same division, the two division teams tie break against each other first.

From NFL.com:


To Break A Tie For The Wild-Card Team
If it is necessary to break ties to determine the three Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.
If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tiebreaker.
If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps.
Two Clubs
Head-to-head, if applicable.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
Strength of victory in all games.
Strength of schedule in all games.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
Best net points in conference games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss.

Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after one-or-more clubs are eliminated during any step, tiebreaker restarts at Step 1 of two-club format. If three clubs remain tied after a fourth club is eliminated during any step, tiebreaker restarts at Step 2 of three-club format.)
Apply division tiebreaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tiebreaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
Strength of victory in all games.
Strength of schedule in all games.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
Best net points in conference games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss
When the first Wild Card team has been identified, the procedure is repeated to name the second and third Wild Card (i.e., eliminate all but the highest-ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to Step 2). In situations in which three teams from the same division are involved in the procedure, the original seeding of the teams remains the same for subsequent applications of the tiebreaker if the top-ranked team in that division qualifies for a Wild Card berth.

[Bengalbug]

(12-11-2023, 07:54 PM)Whacked Wrote: This week ..of relevance:

Steelers at the Colts. I got the Colts

Chicago (who just knocked off the Lions) at the Browns. You never know.

Cowboys at the Bills. Will be a great game!

Irrelevant but I think the Jags beat the Rat Turds

Texans at the Titans
Mehh. Should be an easy one for the Texans

Broncos at the Lions
Will be a good one.

Texans got boat raced by the jets and titans just beat the dolphins. You really just never know. Also stroud in protocol and they have lost their top two receivers in consecutive weeks.