A Mathematical Dive into the Bengals Playoff Hopes: Root for the Dolphins & Raiders !

[Science Friction]

I took a really deep dive into the Bengals playoff probabilities. I studied an app that calculates a teams playoff chances based on the results of other games. I took every game that would have any effect on the Bengals from now through week 17 and picked a winner and loser in each case. In each case, I made the outcome to be the worst possible scenario for our Bengals. In other words, the teams I picked to win lessened the likelihood of the Bengals playoff hopes. If we beat Pittsburgh, lose to KC, and everything thing else goes into the crapper for us, we will have a slightly less than 1 in 4 chance of making the playoffs going in to Week 18.

But don't despair, Bengals fans, mathematicians don't stop at Week 17. I have some good news. A win over the Browns in Week 18 and our chances go back up to about where they are right now--- 37%. Our playoff hopes will be determined by the outcomes of four games in week 18. Here are those games:

1. Jaguars at Titans

2. Texans at Colts

3. Bills at Dolphins

4. Broncos at Raiders

The Bengals want the home team to win in each of these games(Assuming the Texans beat the Browns this week). Now, there are 16 combinations(2^4) of how those four games can go. For example , if G= Good 4 Bengals ; B= Bad 4 Bengals , then GGGG means all four went in the Bengals favor. GGBB means the first two went the Bengals way but the last two did not. Of these 16 combinations, six of them gets the Bengals into the playoffs: GGGG , GGGB, GGBG, GBGG, BGGG, and BBGG. Notice that five of the six require three of the four games going the Bengals way. Only one, the BBGG, requires just two of the four going in favor of our beloved Black & Orange. A Dolphins win at home over the Bills  and a Raiders win in Vegas over the Broncos would get it done, regardless of what happens in the other two.

What does this all mean? Short of winning out, the Bengals are going to, most certainly, needs some help in Week 18. The good news is, none of those four games would require a major upset of any sort. Those are all games that could go either way. Also, the teams the Bengals would be rooting for in that quad of games will all be the home teams(unless the Browns beat the Texans this week, in which case we'd want the Texans to win at the Colts in Week 18).

In conclusion ,unless all three of those early games go the Bengals way, it's gonna likely come down to the Broncos at Raiders in determining the Bengals fate. After the Bengals win in the Jungle in Week 18, take off your Bengals gear and put on the Black & Silver paint and become a Raiders fan for three hours!!!

Btw, in my scenario I projected the Texans over the Browns this week. This results in us needing a Colts win at home in Week 18. If, however, the Browns beat the Texans this week, then we will need to root for the Texans to beat the Colts in week 18. I personally like the former scenario better than the latter. I want to be rooting for all four of those home teams in Week 18.

Questions/ comments?

[Science Friction]

Btw, if we make the playoffs under the scenario discussed above, we would be the #7 seed and would play at KC.

[Whacked]

Thanks

I assume we want the Dolts over the Texans due to head to head tie breakers?

[BengalBob]

Beat Pittsburgh

[Science Friction]

(12-19-2023, 04:40 PM)Whacked Wrote: Thanks

I assume we want the Dolts over the Texans due to head to head tie breakers?

The Indy/ Texans thing is really interesting. If the Texans beat the Browns this week then we will likely be rooting for the Colts in that week 18 game. But if the Browns beat the Texans this week , then we might very well be pulling for the Texans in that Week 18 game. 

[Whacked]

(12-19-2023, 05:09 PM)Science Friction Wrote: The Indy/ Texans thing is really interesting. If the Texans beat the Browns this week then we will likely be rooting for the Colts in that week 18 game. But if the Browns beat the Texans this week , then we might very well be pulling for the Texans in that Week 18 game. 

Good info. Thank you

[BIGDADDYFROMCINCINNATI]

(12-19-2023, 05:09 PM)Science Friction Wrote: The Indy/ Texans thing is really interesting. If the Texans beat the Browns this week then we will likely be rooting for the Colts in that week 18 game. But if the Browns beat the Texans this week , then we might very well be pulling for the Texans in that Week 18 game. 

The sleeper in this whole mix is Denver who has the easiest road of all.  I'm cheering for them to get beat before the Raiders game, so cheer for the Patriots as the Broncos have them at home this week.  Then Denver will have the Chargers next week.  We beat the Colts so any tie-breaker with them will go to us.

If we get into a tie-breaker with the Browns, they win b/c they beat the Ravens and the Steelers, so really unless they just lay an egg the rest of the year they're a lock.  I think going into week 18 it'll be a must-win for us, but a "who-cares"  game for them so we possibly could be playing their second team for an easier time.

[Science Friction]

(12-19-2023, 05:33 PM)BIGDADDYFROMCINCINNATI Wrote: The sleeper in this whole mix is Denver who has the easiest road of all.  I'm cheering for them to get beat before the Raiders game, so cheer for the Patriots as the Broncos have them at home this week.  Then Denver will have the Chargers next week.  We beat the Colts so any tie-breaker with them will go to us.

If we get into a tie-breaker with the Browns, they win b/c they beat the Ravens and the Steelers, so really unless they just lay an egg the rest of the year they're a lock.  I think going into week 18 it'll be a must-win for us, but a "who-cares"  game for them so we possibly could be playing their second team for an easier time.

Denver needs to be on our s*** list the rest of the season.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(12-19-2023, 03:11 PM)Science Friction Wrote: I took a really deep dive into the Bengals playoff probabilities. I studied an app that calculates a teams playoff chances based on the results of other games. I took every game that would have any effect on the Bengals from now through week 17 and picked a winner and loser in each case. In each case, I made the outcome to be the worst possible scenario for our Bengals. In other words, the teams I picked to win lessened the likelihood of the Bengals playoff hopes. If we beat Pittsburgh, lose to KC, and everything thing else goes into the crapper for us, we will have a slightly less than 1 in 4 chance of making the playoffs going in to Week 18.

But don't despair, Bengals fans, mathematicians don't stop at Week 17. I have some good news. A win over the Browns in Week 18 and our chances go back up to about where they are right now--- 37%. Our playoff hopes will be determined by the outcomes of four games in week 18. Here are those games:

1. Jaguars at Titans

2. Texans at Colts

3. Bills at Dolphins

4. Broncos at Raiders

The Bengals want the home team to win in each of these games(Assuming the Texans beat the Browns this week). Now, there are 16 combinations(2^4) of how those four games can go. For example , if G= Good 4 Bengals ; B= Bad 4 Bengals , then GGGG means all four went in the Bengals favor. GGBB means the first two went the Bengals way but the last two did not. Of these 16 combinations, six of them gets the Bengals into the playoffs: GGGG , GGGB, GGBG, GBGG, BGGG, and BBGG. Notice that five of the six require three of the four games going the Bengals way. Only one, the BBGG, requires just two of the four going in favor of our beloved Black & Orange. A Dolphins win at home over the Bills  and a Raiders win in Vegas over the Broncos would get it done, regardless of what happens in the other two.

What does this all mean? Short of winning out, the Bengals are going to, most certainly, needs some help in Week 18. The good news is, none of those four games would require a major upset of any sort. Those are all games that could go either way. Also, the teams the Bengals would be rooting for in that quad of games will all be the home teams(unless the Browns beat the Texans this week, in which case we'd want the Texans to win at the Colts in Week 18).

In conclusion ,unless all three of those early games go the Bengals way, it's gonna likely come down to the Broncos at Raiders in determining the Bengals fate. After the Bengals win in the Jungle in Week 18, take off your Bengals gear and put on the Black & Silver paint and become a Raiders fan for three hours!!!

Btw, in my scenario I projected the Texans over the Browns this week. This results in us needing a Colts win at home in Week 18. If, however, the Browns beat the Texans this week, then we will need to root for the Texans to beat the Colts in week 18. I personally like the former scenario better than the latter. I want to be rooting for all four of those home teams in Week 18.

Questions/ comments?

Good stuff, personally I hope the Broncos start losing, could happen against the Raiders.

[Essex Johnson]

(12-19-2023, 03:11 PM)Science Friction Wrote: I took a really deep dive into the Bengals playoff probabilities. I studied an app that calculates a teams playoff chances based on the results of other games. I took every game that would have any effect on the Bengals from now through week 17 and picked a winner and loser in each case. In each case, I made the outcome to be the worst possible scenario for our Bengals. In other words, the teams I picked to win lessened the likelihood of the Bengals playoff hopes. If we beat Pittsburgh, lose to KC, and everything thing else goes into the crapper for us, we will have a slightly less than 1 in 4 chance of making the playoffs going in to Week 18.

But don't despair, Bengals fans, mathematicians don't stop at Week 17. I have some good news. A win over the Browns in Week 18 and our chances go back up to about where they are right now--- 37%. Our playoff hopes will be determined by the outcomes of four games in week 18. Here are those games:

1. Jaguars at Titans

2. Texans at Colts

3. Bills at Dolphins

4. Broncos at Raiders

The Bengals want the home team to win in each of these games(Assuming the Texans beat the Browns this week). Now, there are 16 combinations(2^4) of how those four games can go. For example , if G= Good 4 Bengals ; B= Bad 4 Bengals , then GGGG means all four went in the Bengals favor. GGBB means the first two went the Bengals way but the last two did not. Of these 16 combinations, six of them gets the Bengals into the playoffs: GGGG , GGGB, GGBG, GBGG, BGGG, and BBGG. Notice that five of the six require three of the four games going the Bengals way. Only one, the BBGG, requires just two of the four going in favor of our beloved Black & Orange. A Dolphins win at home over the Bills  and a Raiders win in Vegas over the Broncos would get it done, regardless of what happens in the other two.

What does this all mean? Short of winning out, the Bengals are going to, most certainly, needs some help in Week 18. The good news is, none of those four games would require a major upset of any sort. Those are all games that could go either way. Also, the teams the Bengals would be rooting for in that quad of games will all be the home teams(unless the Browns beat the Texans this week, in which case we'd want the Texans to win at the Colts in Week 18).

In conclusion ,unless all three of those early games go the Bengals way, it's gonna likely come down to the Broncos at Raiders in determining the Bengals fate. After the Bengals win in the Jungle in Week 18, take off your Bengals gear and put on the Black & Silver paint and become a Raiders fan for three hours!!!

Btw, in my scenario I projected the Texans over the Browns this week. This results in us needing a Colts win at home in Week 18. If, however, the Browns beat the Texans this week, then we will need to root for the Texans to beat the Colts in week 18. I personally like the former scenario better than the latter. I want to be rooting for all four of those home teams in Week 18.

Questions/ comments?

It means little if we lose this weekend.. our odds suck ..must win sat

[Science Friction]

(12-19-2023, 07:16 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Good stuff, personally I hope the Broncos start losing, could happen against the Raiders.

Thank you, Nate, and I concur totally. Won't hurt my feelings to root for the Raiders. They were the team I rooted for when I was just a young kid of 8 or 9 because one of my hometown heroes was in the Raiders defensive backfield. Plus, I loved Lamonica, Blanda, Cliff Branch and others. Maybe they can help us out a little the rest of the way.

[BIGDADDYFROMCINCINNATI]

(12-19-2023, 06:32 PM)Science Friction Wrote: Denver needs to be on our s*** list the rest of the season.

If Denver wins out it may be tough for us to make it in especially with us playing at KC.  So YES they are on the poo-poo list for the rest of the year.

Lets go Patriots!!!

[WiregrassBenGal]

No more Arrowhead playoff games, whatever that takes.

[Bengalbug]

(12-20-2023, 09:00 AM)WiregrassBenGal Wrote: No more Arrowhead playoff games, whatever that takes.

What if that means missing the playoffs entirely?

[Science Friction]

(12-20-2023, 09:00 AM)WiregrassBenGal Wrote: No more Arrowhead playoff games, whatever that takes.

If we do make the playoffs, going to Arrowhead is the odds on favorite scenario, with us the #7 seed.  I'm like you, I'd rather see a different venue this time around. I'll be happy to be dancing anywhere, though.

[Science Friction]

Seeing as how we will need our rooting interests to go 3 for 3 in those early games in Week 18 for us to get in, it appears to this mathematician that we will all have our eyes turned to Vegas at 4:00 in week 18 , hoping that the Raiders can beat the Broncos.

When I was an 8 y.o. kid in Corbin, KY, I was a huge Oakland Raiders fan because one of my HS's best players was in the starting defensive backfield of the Raiders. He was Rodger Bird, also one of best players to ever play at UK. Rodger, as well as George Blanda, were both UK grads. Blanda played is last game at QB for the Raiders at 48 years of age. That is a record that still stands to this day.

In the memory of Bird, Blanda, Branch, Dave Casper, and Daryle Lamonica... GO RAIDERS!!!

[*Awful Llama*]

(12-20-2023, 11:27 AM)Science Friction Wrote: Seeing as how we will need our rooting interests to go 3 for 3 in those early games in Week 18 for us to get in, it appears to this mathematician that we will all have our eyes turned to Vegas at  4:00 in week 18 , hoping that the Raiders can beat the Broncos.

I'd expect the Raiders to be amped for the home/season finale against a division rival needing a win to secure a playoff spot.  You can throw the records out at that point and just win, baby.

[*PhilHos*]

(12-20-2023, 09:00 AM)WiregrassBenGal Wrote: No more Arrowhead playoff games, whatever that takes.

Are you kidding? i hope we go into Browninghead and beat them handily. Can you imagine the mental toll that would be placed on the Chiefs organization (let alone their fans)? 1-3 against Burrow and then to face Browning and STILL lose? Man, that would be awesome. 

[WiregrassBenGal]

So, I got out-voted. Yes, it would be awesome to see them do something like they did back on January 23rd in Buffalo, but here's the thing. I'm tired of Patrick and his temper tantrums and the whole Kelsey/Taylor Swift thing. For the millionth time, WHAT IS SO FREAKING HOT ABOUT HER? She's an average singer, and she's not even particularly pretty.

[Joelist]

I'm pretty sure that if we beat the Stealers and the Texans lose then we are control our own destiny.