Lou speaks on the state of the defense

[*Synric*]

(12-28-2023, 01:07 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: The scheme among those problems. Even with all the guys here last year they were still the 16th overall defense, the only time they've been above-average in it for 5 years with Lou and that's the literal minimum they could be while not being below average. Even the SB year they were below average in both yards allowed and points allowed.

I'm a big fan of the scheme. I remember discussing Lou and the defense in 2020 mentioning that I like the stuff the were doing in coverage but the practice squad DL could not stop the run or rush the passer. Nothing has really changed Im still a fan of the scheme. The DL play has been better since 2020 but outside of 2021 (Larry O was a big part of that rotation) they are still bottom half of the league in pressuring the QB in a passing league... now in 2023 they can't even stop the run plus we are seeing he growing pains of young players.


The scouting, drafting, and developing of the DL has been the biggest defensive disappointment.

2019
Rennell Wren

2020
Khaled Kareem

2021
Joseph Ossai
Cam Sample
Tyler Shelvin
Wyatt Hubert

2022
Zach Carter
Jeffery Gunter



8 total DL draft picks (not counting rookie year Myles Murphy) and not a single one has even looked competent.

[The D.O.Z.]

I really hate that Tycen Anderson went down early this year. If this last preseason is any indicator of the type of player he COULD be, he'd be my starting FS with Dax slotting in at nickel / dime CB, splitting time w Hilton. Probably use him to cover TEs. Swiss Army knife type until it's Hilton's time to go, then he takes over nickel CB full time. The kid is just too damn athletic to NOT be on the field, so you find ways to get him on it! But I feel like Anderson COULD be the better, true FS on the roster at the moment. It's a shame he's hurt.

[*rfaulk34*]

(12-28-2023, 06:38 PM)Soonerpeace Wrote: That’s pretty good. So how has Dax done? How does our safety play compare to last year grading wise? Since our pass defense is worse where’s the blame? I’m seriously all ears? What’s your opinion?

Dax is really interesting and a cautionary tale on trusting grades from PFF. His overall grade is really bad and puts him around 60th for guys who have played 50% or more of max snaps. 

But if you look at his raw numbers, he's top 15 in pressures, tackles and missed tackle % (only 7.4%). His pass rating against in coverage is a bit below average 102.2 and he's given up a lot of yards and ypc. He's tied for 2nd in pbu and his td/int is on par with the top 10 guys so his really bad coverage grade of 46.4 is really confusing because guys below him, in pass rating against, have grades in the 60s. Nothing really stands out, numbers wise, that should make anyone believe that his grade should be so much lower than the other guys.

Tackling has been a big issue for the team this year (other than Dax). That's what i see as the biggest prob with the D this year.

Last year, Bates was graded 10th and Bell was 37th. Bates had a pass rating against of 86.1 and Bell's was 65.1
Their coverage grades were, Bates 72.9, Bell 65.5.

[jj22]

I have to stomach rewatching the defense as I don’t see all that from Battle.

I have to admit I thought the young secondary would gel by week 12. I excused the early season struggles but we should be seeing more solid play by the defense by now.

[J24]

(12-28-2023, 08:04 PM)Synric Wrote: I'm a big fan of the scheme. I remember discussing Lou and the defense in 2020 mentioning that I like the stuff the were doing in coverage but the practice squad DL could not stop the run or rush the passer. Nothing has really changed Im still a fan of the scheme. The DL play has been better since 2020 but outside of 2021 (Larry O was a big part of that rotation) they are still bottom half of the league in pressuring the QB in a passing league... now in 2023 they can't even stop the run plus we are seeing he growing pains of young players.


The scouting, drafting, and developing of the DL has been the biggest defensive disappointment.

2019
Rennell Wren

2020
Khaled Kareem

2021
Joseph Ossai
Cam Sample
Tyler Shelvin
Wyatt Hubert

2022
Zach Carter
Jeffery Gunter



8 total DL draft picks (not counting rookie year Myles Murphy) and not a single one has even looked competent.

I still like both Sample and Ossai as players but neither are being used right IMO.  Sample should be playing DT in Passing Situations and Ossai should be an Edge. It seems that they are being used the exact opposite.

The DT situation is down right frighting though it seems we have been 0 for 10 at drafting DT since drafting Geno Atkins.

[Soonerpeace]

(12-29-2023, 12:18 AM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Dax is really interesting and a cautionary tale on trusting grades from PFF. His overall grade is really bad and puts him around 60th for guys who have played 50% or more of max snaps. 

But if you look at his raw numbers, he's top 15 in pressures, tackles and missed tackle % (only 7.4%). His pass rating against in coverage is a bit below average 102.2 and he's given up a lot of yards and ypc. He's tied for 2nd in pbu and his td/int is on par with the top 10 guys so his really bad coverage grade of 46.4 is really confusing because guys below him, in pass rating against, have grades in the 60s. Nothing really stands out, numbers wise, that should make anyone believe that his grade should be so much lower than the other guys.

Tackling has been a big issue for the team this year (other than Dax). That's what i see as the biggest prob with the D this year.

Last year, Bates was graded 10th and Bell was 37th. Bates had a pass rating against of 86.1 and Bell's was 65.1
Their coverage grades were, Bates 72.9, Bell 65.5.

Thanks that’s solid analysis and do more of that after the season. The defense is a mystery. Only the safeties are different.

[reuben.ahmed]

(12-28-2023, 12:38 PM)Soonerpeace Wrote: But in fairness to Nate he’s always seeing the best in everybody except Joe Mixon lol.

[reuben.ahmed]

Everyone else has a job to do also and some of them can operate on 2-3 hours of sleep a night lol

[samhain]

(12-28-2023, 06:21 PM)Whatever Wrote: Run defense has fallen off way more than pass defense, though.  We're 26th in run d this year compared to 5th in '22.  By comparison, pass defense has gone from 16th in '22 to 28th this year.

We also have to remember that we had 5 vets starting last year in the secondary until Awuzie went down later in the year.  This year, it's been mostly rookies and 2nd year guys.  Awuzie doesn't look to be 100% recovered from his injury, Scott was a bust,and Hill played more CB than S as a rookie.

Yeah the youth issue is a thing.  I get a little one my skis praising the young corners.  I think CTB is a young star and Turner shows everything but experience.  Even so, they are young and with Turner in particular, still prone to miscues.  His screwup with Addison vs Minnesota could have been a backbreaker.  Couple that with the drop-off at safety  and you're going to have issues.  

[thompson19osu]

All the focus seems to be on the young secondary. Yes they give up explosive plays its to be expected. My greater concern is the d-line and how they are getting handled in the run game. I'm sick of seeing 1st down plays go for 6-8 yards a pop.

[Millhouse]

The thing with the defense that is most concerning is that there has been virtually no improvement as the season went on. Growing up and having growing pains would indicate there are signs of improvement or at the least signs of possible improvement, but there hasn't been any with now two games to go. The defensive line has overall been ineffective outside of Trey's sacks. The linebackers looked like they have regressed. And the backend looks lost half the time.

Maybe I'm wrong, but if they want to make a legit Super Bowl run next year, they need to make some changes with this defense instead of keeping the status quo of players.

[007BengalsFan]

(12-28-2023, 02:50 PM)TecmoBengals Wrote: Time to see what FA and the draft can offer.

The draft is a crap shoot.  If you lose 2 or 3 proven starters that played good, you cant expect that just because you use a 1st or 2nd round draft pick on their replacement those draft picks are going to make up for the loss of the proven player.  The defense is not doing as well this year because we let some talent leave and the guys we drafted to replace them are not performing as well.  Just because we spent a #1 draft pick on Dax Hill, doesnt mean he is going to help the defense like Jessie Bates.  If the Bengals want to get serious about improving the defense and in particular the defensive line, this offseason they need to go after some good free agents.

[SunsetBengal]

(12-29-2023, 05:01 PM)007BengalsFan Wrote: The draft is a crap shoot.  If you lose 2 or 3 proven starters that played good, you cant expect that just because you use a 1st or 2nd round draft pick on their replacement those draft picks are going to make up for the loss of the proven player.  The defense is not doing as well this year because we let some talent leave and the guys we drafted to replace them are not performing as well.  Just because we spent a #1 draft pick on Dax Hill, doesnt mean he is going to help the defense like Jessie Bates.  If the Bengals want to get serious about improving the defense and in particular the defensive line, this offseason they need to go after some good free agents.

The draft is even more of a crap shoot when the last few drafts at a given position group don't develop into dependable starters in 2-3 years.  

To second bolded, the Bengals already did that.  They went out and got Reader, Awuzie, Apple, Hendrickson, Bell, etc.  Those guys were supposed to provide immediate results while the young guys on the roster in the position group developed.  Now, with Joe B on a mega deal and Chase coming up fast, can they really afford to "buy" another set of good defenders?

[007BengalsFan]

(12-29-2023, 05:18 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: The draft is even more of a crap shoot when the last few drafts at a given position group don't develop into dependable starters in 2-3 years.  

To second bolded, the Bengals already did that.  They went out and got Reader, Awuzie, Apple, Hendrickson, Bell, etc.  Those guys were supposed to provide immediate results while the young guys on the roster in the position group developed.  Now, with Joe B on a mega deal and Chase coming up fast, can they really afford to "buy" another set of good defenders?

...and you can add Ogunjobi to that list too.  Those guys did help us get to the Super Bowl and AFC Championship so those FA signings did pay off.  It was the defense that carried us, not the offense.  The problem is Bengals management has decided to let a bunch of defensive talent leave so they could spend that money on the offense.  No one should be surprised the defense is not playing as well when they dont have the same talent now as they did the last couple of years.  If people think using draft picks to replace lost talent should make the defense better, lets try that with the offense this year and see how it works.  Let some of these offensive guys walk, replace them with 1st and 2nd round draft picks and use the money saved to buy some more proven talent on defense

[SunsetBengal]

(12-29-2023, 06:03 PM)007BengalsFan Wrote: ...and you can add Ogunjobi to that list too.  Those guys did help us get to the Super Bowl and AFC Championship so those FA signings did pay off.  It was the defense that carried us, not the offense.  The problem is Bengals management has decided to let a bunch of defensive talent leave so they could spend that money on the offense.  No one should be surprised the defense is not playing as well when they dont have the same talent now as they did the last couple of years.  If people think using draft picks to replace lost talent should make the defense better, lets try that with the offense this year and see how it works.  Let some of these offensive guys walk, replace them with 1st and 2nd round draft picks and use the money saved to buy some more proven talent on defense

What 'money saved' are you speaking of?  If they let expensive talent walk out of the building, replaced them with draft picks, and then reinvested the money into offensive players there is no "saved money". 

[007BengalsFan]

(12-29-2023, 06:07 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: What 'money saved' are you speaking of?  If they let expensive talent walk out of the building, replaced them with draft picks, and then reinvested the money into offensive players there is no "saved money". 

I suggested letting expensive offensive talent walk, replace them with draft picks (which would be cheaper) and use the saved money free agent defense.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(12-29-2023, 06:37 PM)007BengalsFan Wrote: I suggested letting expensive offensive talent walk, replace them with draft picks (which would be cheaper) and use the saved money free agent defense.

We don't really have any expensive offensive talent right now. We have 1 offensive player in the Top-80 cap hits in 2023 (Burrow).

Joe Burrow is also currently our only Top-80 offensive cap hit in 2024.

[SunsetBengal]

(12-29-2023, 06:56 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: We don't really have any expensive offensive talent right now. We have 1 offensive player in the Top-80 cap hits in 2023 (Burrow).

Joe Burrow is also currently our only Top-80 offensive cap hit in 2024.

Is the top 80 really a fair metric to go by?  That is like only the top 4% of contracts.  There are around 2,000 NFL players, maybe we should base it on top 10%, or even 20% in order to get a more fair measure?

[007BengalsFan]

(12-29-2023, 06:56 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: We don't really have any expensive offensive talent right now. We have 1 offensive player in the Top-80 cap hits in 2023 (Burrow).

Joe Burrow is also currently our only Top-80 offensive cap hit in 2024.

You dont need to be in the top 80 to save money.   Jonah is making 12.6 million this year.  Next year he is predicted to make the same or more.   Let Jonah walk and replace him with a 1st round draft pick.  Currently the Bengals are sitting at the #18 draft spot which is expected to count 2.7 million against the cap in 2024.  Instead of re-signing Jonah at 12.6 or more, if the Bengals instead used the 1st round draft pick at RT, the Bengals would save 10 million or more against next years cap.  Tyler Boyd is making 10 million this year.  Let Boyd walk and you save another 10 million. Tee Higgins would make about 23 million next year if tagged and would likely try to ask for even more to re-sign on a longer term contract.  Let Tee walk replace him with a 2nd round pick and you save 22+ million.  Joe Mixon redid his contract to pay him 8.5 million next year. If he is cut next year the dead cap space would be 2.75 million but the Bengals could save around 6 million with the cut.

Savings

10m Jonah
10m Boyd
22m Higgins
  6m Mixon

48 million in savings by not having Jonah, Boyd, Higgins and Mixon on the team next year.  This is money that could be spent on adding defensive talent while replacing the lost offensive talent with draft picks.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(12-29-2023, 07:16 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Is the top 80 really a fair metric to go by?  That is like only the top 4% of contracts.  There are around 2,000 NFL players, maybe we should base it on top 10%, or even 20% in order to get a more fair measure?

There are only around 1,000 veteran NFL players who have gotten through a rookie contract and thus have actually had the ability to have their services bidded on rather than fixed cost. Only about 600 veterans who are making at least $2m/yr and anyone under that are generally interchangeable depth. 10% of the ~600 vets making $2m+/yr is 60, 10% of the ~1,000 vets in the NFL is 100. The middle of that is 80.

You start expanding it too much to 10% of 2,000 or 20% of 2,000 and it just get dumb. The 198th, 199th, and 200th cap hits have to combine together to equal the 19th cap hit, you can't be putting them all in the same category. The 393rd-400th are all below $4m. You've nearly reached Nick Scott at that point. Heck, Tee Higgins is the 396th cap hit at $3.962m... are we really calling 2023 Tee Higgins an "expensive offensive talent"?