Playoffs...PLAYOFFS! How Do We Get In? A Mathematician Breaks it Down!

[Science Friction]

Okay, after consuming a lot of holiday food and a considerable quantity of holiday spirits, I set out to determine the paths that will get our beloved Bengals into the playoffs. I might be drunk and I didn't stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night but, by gosh,  I knew that all of that money mom and dad spent on a mathematics degree would pay off someday.  Here goes:

The clearest path is to win out. If we win out , we get in the playoffs if any of the following five scenarios happen:

1. A Jags loss AND a Steelers loss ;

2. A Texans loss AND a Steelers loss;

3. A Bills loss AND a Steelers  loss   ;

4. A Bills loss AND a Jags loss  ;

5.  A Bills loss ,  a Colts loss, AND a Texans loss

If we lose to the Chiefs and beat the Browns, we get in the playoffs under any of the following eight scenarios(note that five of these eight require the Bills to lose out) :


1.  Steelers lose out , EXACTLY  ONE  Jags win(must go 1-1) ,  a Raiders loss , AND a Broncos loss  [Easiest path of these eight , imo]

2.  Steelers lose out ,  Jags win out , Texans lose to Titans and win over Colts , a Raiders loss ,  AND a Broncos loss [Next easiest, imo]

3.  Steelers lose out ,  Jags win out ,  Texans win over Titans and lose to Colts, Raiders win over Colts , a Broncos loss , AND Bills lose out

4.  Steelers lose out ,  Texans lose out, Bills lose out , AND a Broncos loss

5.   Steelers lose out , Texans win out , Bills lose out

6.   Steelers lose out,   Jags lose out ,  Texans win out OR lose out ,  a Raiders loss, AND a Broncos loss

7.   Steelers lose out , Jags lose out ,  Bills lose out , a Raiders loss, AND a Broncos loss

8.   Steelers lose out ,  Bills lose out ,  a Raiders loss AND a Broncos loss ,  AND   either a  Jags , Texans, or Colts loss





NOTE:  There are ways we can get in by losing to the Chiefs , without the Steelers losing twice, but ALL of those scenarios require TWO Bills losses , among other things.  For example,  TWO Bills losses, TWO Steelers wins, EXACTLY ONE Jags win , a Raiders loss, AND a Broncos loss would get us in . I doubt the Bill lose to the Pats AND the Steelers beat the Ravens, so this scenario is very unlikely, imo.  Scenarios where the Steelers win one of their last two also require the Bills losing out but are just as unlikely, or maybe more unlikely , than the scenario above where the Steelers win their two games. Hence, I'll disregard those since the likelihood of occurrence is negligible and since I have to take my cat to the vet.

In conclusion,  if we win out , we are very likely gonna be in the playoffs .  If we lose to the Chiefs and beat the Browns, our best chances for getting in will be scenario #1  or #2 listed above.


We can get in the playoffs by beating the Chiefs and losing to the Browns, as well, but let's don't cross that bridge until we see we have our win at Arrowhead!

Have a happy and blessed  2024!!!

[Essex Johnson]

Great breakdown, I did see one that could happen that I would add if bengals go 9-8 with a loss to KC and win to Browns

Steelers and Texans lose out, Colts and Bills win out, Jags 1-1, Denver 1-1

[Bengalion]

Great read, thank you. We need to win out, I don't see Buffalo dropping the last two games.

[reuben.ahmed]

I want to face a motivated Browns team, they must beat them.

[*Go Cards*]

Nice breakdown,
Yet don't see the Bills losing to the Patriots in a must win game this weekend. So that probably narrows the chances down to just 3 scenarios still alive with a loss by the Bengals.

Obviously it's best to just win out somehow. It's not just next man up time, its man up time !

[Essex Johnson]

(12-30-2023, 10:32 AM)Bengalion Wrote: Great read, thank you. We need to win out, I don't see Buffalo dropping the last two games.

I agree, that is why i found one where Bills can win out and we still could get it going 9-8, still long shots, need to win against KC and not be eliminated with one week to go which could happen depending on outcomes tomorrow

[Essex Johnson]

(12-30-2023, 11:45 AM)Go Cards Wrote: Nice breakdown,
Yet don't see the Bills losing to the Patriots in a must win game this weekend. So that probably narrows the chances down to just 3 scenarios still alive with a loss by the Bengals.

Obviously it's best to just win out somehow. It's not just next man up time, its man up time !

My scenario works though with Bills winning out... but you are correct winning out would be the best option

[BengalYankee]

https://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine/_/results/401547235~2~401547625~1~401547626~2~401547636~2~401547628~2~401547629~2~401547630~2~401547631~2~401547641~1~401547646~2~401547639~2~401547647~1~401547644~1~401547652~2~401547645~2

[Whacked]

Nice work Science Fiction - Thank you for that!

[Science Friction]

Fellas, I edited my original post slightly. In my # 8 scenario , I had left out "a Raiders loss AND a Broncos loss." That is now included.

[*bfine32*]

Is there anyway we're eliminated after this weekend?

[Whacked]

Tomorrow/Sunday:

I. Bills are NOT losing to the Patriots....especially at the Bills
*However, they play the Fins the last week of the season @ the Fins

II. Stoolers "should" get beaten by a motivated Seahawks team @ Seattle
*But with our luck, Rudolph and Pickens go nuts again @ Seattle

III. Jags are NOT losing to the Panthers @ at Jax - no way

IV. Titans @ the Texans - argggg

***Texans play the Colts last game of the year

V. Raiders @ the Colts - "could" go our way.

[Millhouse]

[cinci4life]

(12-30-2023, 01:10 PM)Whacked Wrote: Tomorrow/Sunday:

I. Bills are NOT losing to the Patriots....especially at the Bills
*However, they play the Fins the last week of the season @ the Fins

II. Stoolers "should" get beaten by a motivated Seahawks team @ Seattle
*But with our luck, Rudolph and Pickens go nuts again @ Seattle

III. Jags are NOT losing to the Panthers @ at Jax - no way

IV. Titans @ the Texans - argggg

***Texans play the Colts last game of the year

V. Raiders @ the Colts - "could" go our way.

Lawrence has already been ruled out meaning Bethard is starting. Could be a lot more interesting than expected.

[cinci4life]

(12-30-2023, 01:10 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Is there anyway we're eliminated after this weekend?

I think if we lose and both Buffalo and Pittsburgh win than we are out. Only scenario i can think of.

[*Awful Llama*]

(12-30-2023, 10:53 AM)reuben.ahmed Wrote: I want to face a motivated Browns team, they must beat them.

In separate posts you've said words to that effect, so fine, I'll bite:

Why?  Why does it matter that the Browns are motivated against the Bengals?  Why is a win against a motivated Browns team good but a win against a resting Browns team bad?  When we rested against the Browns the last week of 2021, the NFL didn't place an asterisk next to the score of that game.  The Browns include that game as part of the evidence of their dominance over us the past few seasons, their fans certainly do, anyway, and everyone just accepts that.  So now, they may return the favor to us and provide us with (potentially) a lay-up win.  A win that could very well help us secure a playoff spot.  And, after all, that's the point to all this, yes?  So again:  why is the Browns' motivation so important? 

[Science Friction]

(12-30-2023, 01:06 PM)Whacked Wrote: Nice work Science Fiction - Thank you for that!

You're very welcome. Let's hope that we get a scenario that works for us. Btw, I am disregarding the unlikely scenario of tie games in these scenarios.

Just to follow up... If we lose to the Chiefs , there are two ways we are eliminated tomorrow:  1)  if both the Steelers and Bills win , or 2) If the Broncos beat the Chargers, Raiders beat the Colts, and the Bills beat the Patriots.(technically, we'd not be eliminated, but then we'd need the Broncos and Raiders to tie )

I really doubt that the Bills lose at home to the Patriots, so what it is likely to boil down to (assuming we lose tomorrow in Arrowhead) is that we need to hope for  a Raiders loss at Indy tomorrow, a Broncos loss at Vegas, and a Jags loss at Nashville and the GD Steelers to LOSE and LOSE.  Besides our game in KC, the biggest games tomorrow for our playoff hopes, imo,  is getting a Seahawks win over the Steelers and a Colts win over the Raiders.

Go Seahawks! Go Colts!  But, most importantly, GO BENGALS!!!

[Whacked]

(12-30-2023, 02:22 PM)cinci4life Wrote: Lawrence has already been ruled out meaning Bethard is starting. Could be a lot more interesting than expected.

Ahh nice. That helps for sure. Thanks

[Whacked]

(12-30-2023, 02:50 PM)Science Friction Wrote: You're very welcome. Let's hope that we get a scenario that works for us. Btw, I am disregarding the unlikely scenario of tie games in these scenarios.

Just to follow up... If we lose to the Chiefs , there are two ways we are eliminated tomorrow:  1)  if both the Steelers and Bills win , or 2) If the Broncos beat the Chargers, Raiders beat the Colts, and the Bills beat the Patriots.

I really doubt that the Bills lose at home to the Patriots, so what it is likely to boil down to (assuming we lose tomorrow in Arrowhead) is that we need to hope for  a Raiders loss at Indy tomorrow, a Broncos loss at Vegas, and a Jags loss at Nashville and the GD Steelers to LOSE and LOSE.  Besides our game in KC, the biggest games tomorrow for our playoff hopes, imo,  is getting a Seahawks win over the Steelers and a Colts win over the Raiders.

Go Seahawks! Go Colts!  But, most importantly, GO BENGALS!!!

REP! Thank you

[Science Friction]

(12-30-2023, 02:45 PM)cinci4life Wrote: I think if we lose and both Buffalo and Pittsburgh win than we are out. Only scenario i can think of.

Yes, plus this one would knock us out for all practical purposes:

Bills beat Patriots, Broncos beat Chargers, Raiders beat Colts.(Technically, we'd still have a tiny sliver of hope but we would need the Broncos and Raiders to tie in Wk 18 to still have hope).