Playoffs...PLAYOFFS! How Do We Get In? A Mathematician Breaks it Down!

[Science Friction]

(12-30-2023, 10:25 AM)Essex Johnson Wrote: Great breakdown, I did see one that could happen that I would add if bengals go 9-8 with a loss to KC and win to Browns

Steelers and Texans lose out, Colts and Bills win out, Jags 1-1, Denver 1-1

EJ, you made me have to sober up and think some more.  

Your scenario is essentially the same as my #1 scenario but with more conditions that aren't required.   If Denver goes 1-1 that means they have a loss. If the Colts win out, that means the Raiders have a loss. And if the Jags go 1-1, that means they have exactly one win. Steelers lose out, a Broncos loss, a Raiders loss, Jags get exactly one win.  That's my scenario #1. Those are the only conditions necessary. None of Colts winning out, Texans losing out, or Bills winning out would be necessary.

[Bengalholic]

(12-30-2023, 01:10 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Is there anyway we're eliminated after this weekend?

If we lose, then we can be eliminated from the 6th seed if either the Bills or Steelers win. If we lose and they both win...we're done.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(12-30-2023, 11:45 AM)Go Cards Wrote: Nice breakdown,
Yet don't see the Bills losing to the Patriots in a must win game this weekend. So that probably narrows the chances down to just 3 scenarios still alive with a loss by the Bengals.

Obviously it's best to just win out somehow. It's not just next man up time, its man up time !

Truth, just need to take care of our own bidness and beat on the Chiefs on Sunday, then we can think about the Browns.

[*bfine32*]

(12-30-2023, 02:45 PM)cinci4life Wrote: I think if we lose and both Buffalo and Pittsburgh win than we are out. Only scenario i can think of.

Yeah, that's what I was thinking but wasn't sure, due to numerous tie breakers

(12-30-2023, 03:03 PM)Science Friction Wrote: Yes, plus this one would knock us out for all practical purposes:

Bills beat Patriots, Broncos beat Chargers, Raiders beat Colts.(Technically, we'd still have a tiny sliver of hope but we would need the Broncos and Raiders to tie in Wk 18 to still have hope).  

Wasn't it during our Superbowl Year that all Raiders/Chargers had to do to both get in was tie in the final week? It was going exactly that way until the dumbass LA coach tried to win at the end. Raiders said "OK then, FU" and won the game?. 

(12-30-2023, 03:38 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: If we lose, then we can be eliminated from the 6th seed if either the Bills or Steelers win. If we lose and they both win...we're done.

Go Hawks, Go Pats, Go Bengals 

[Science Friction]

(12-30-2023, 03:38 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: If we lose, then we can be eliminated from the 6th seed if either the Bills or Steelers win. If we lose and they both win...we're done.

Correct. Also, if the Raiders and Broncos both win and the Bills win we are ESSENTIALLY done(would need a KC/Vegas tie to have a chance).


My DREAM SCENARIO...

Wildcard Round :

Baltimore--- BYE

#7 Jacksonville  @ #2 Miami

#6 Cincy  @ #3 Indy

#5 Cleveland @ #4 Denver

____________________________________________

Divisional Round:

#7 Jacksonville @  #1 Baltimore

#6 Cincy @ # 4 Denver

___________________________________________

Conference Championship:

#7 Jacksonville @ #6 Cincy


Indy, Denver, Jacksonville... PLAYOFF NIRVANA!!!!  Clinching the AFC title in the Jungle against the Jags!!!   lol   Someone spiked my egg nog!

[cinci4life]

(12-30-2023, 04:13 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Yeah, that's what I was thinking but wasn't sure, due to numerous tie breakers
Wasn't it during our Superbowl Year that all Raiders/Chargers had to do to both get in was tie in the final week? It was going exactly that way until the dumbass LA coach tried to win at the end. Raiders said "OK then, FU" and won the game?. 


Go Hawks, Go Pats, Go Bengals 

Any tiebreaker involving the Steelers whether it's just the 2 of us or any other team screws us. If more than 2 teams are tied they use a division tiebreaker first if applicable to eliminate a team or more. 

[reuben.ahmed]

(12-30-2023, 02:49 PM)Awful Llama Wrote: In separate posts you've said words to that effect, so fine, I'll bite:

Why?  Why does it matter that the Browns are motivated against the Bengals?  Why is a win against a motivated Browns team good but a win against a resting Browns team bad?  When we rested against the Browns the last week of 2021, the NFL didn't place an asterisk next to the score of that game.  The Browns include that game as part of the evidence of their dominance over us the past few seasons, their fans certainly do, anyway, and everyone just accepts that.  So now, they may return the favor to us and provide us with (potentially) a lay-up win.  A win that could very well help us secure a playoff spot.  And, after all, that's the point to all this, yes?  So again:  why is the Browns' motivation so important? 

I’d rather not have a layup to make the playoffs, we need to earn it. At least from a fan’s psyche lol. That would sit in the back of my mind if they got bounced in the first round, they weren’t supposed to be there anyway. I think it helps the bengals a lot if they played a full strength browns team and beat them to get into the playoffs.

I don’t think this team is superbowl bound anyway so not sure it matters but I wonder if you can find a superbowl winning team that won their last game to get into the playoffs from another team that was resting lol.

Imagine kc was already locked up a number one and wanted to rest their starters too, it’d be two games to let the bengals in lol. Don’t know, wouldn’t seem right to me. At this point Cleveland probably wants to let the Bengals in based on prior dominance, would be nice to show them it’s not as easy as it seems.

I think it only helps if they knew the browns were trying their best to win and couldn’t, vs not.

My perspective is probably different because I live in CLE, had a lot of browns fans saying we suck ass after burrows nightmare Halloween showing. My only comeback was we can lose to you and still make the superbowl, we did it before lol.

[Science Friction]

(12-30-2023, 04:58 PM)cinci4life Wrote: Any tiebreaker involving the Steelers whether it's just the 2 of us or any other team screws us. If more than 2 teams are tied they use a division tiebreaker first if applicable to eliminate a team or more. 

There are scenarios where the Steelers can end up with the same record or a better record than us and we can still get in. However, all of those scenarios require two Bills losses, among other things.

While very , very unlikely, it's still possible for all four AFC North teams to make the playoffs. It's also possible that my cats will all of a sudden quit climbing my curtains.

[*Awful Llama*]

(12-30-2023, 05:51 PM)reuben.ahmed Wrote: My perspective is probably different because I live in CLE, had a lot of browns fans saying we suck ass after burrows nightmare Halloween showing. My only comeback was we can lose to you and still make the superbowl, we did it before lol.

I suspected that might be the reason.  Maybe if I lived in or near Cleveland I'd feel the same way as you.  But I was born on the other side of the state and that won't ever be a consideration.  And, regardless of how we get there, I just want another week (or more!) of Bengals football, and to qualify I'm not too proud to accept...well, I won't call it charity, but I have no problem accepting the benefit of the circumstances.  

Whatever the outcome of the January 7 game, good luck dealing with those idiots come January 8 

[TecmoBengals]

If we make the playoffs I motion nobody makes a "and where are the Zac haters now? " post.

is the board's new: I want to post my opinion is better than someone else's opinion.

[*bfine32*]

(12-30-2023, 06:56 PM)TecmoBengals Wrote: If we make the playoffs I motion nobody makes a "and where are the Zac haters now?          " post.

is the board's new: I want to post my opinion is better than someone else's opinion.

This will be accepted as well as the following proposal:

If we don't make the playoffs nobody makes a "fire Zac" thread

[TecmoBengals]

(12-30-2023, 08:32 PM)bfine32 Wrote: This will be accepted as well as the following proposal:

If we don't make the playoffs nobody makes a "fire Zac" thread

I agree to your terms under the condition it is okay to make a "fire Pollack" or "fire Lou" thread. It keeps the board lively.

[Bengalholic]

(12-30-2023, 08:50 PM)TecmoBengals Wrote: I agree to your terms under the condition it is okay to make a "fire Pollack" or "fire Lou" thread. It keeps the board lively.

Going into Jungle Noise if we lose tomorrow. 

[*bfine32*]

(12-30-2023, 08:50 PM)TecmoBengals Wrote: I agree to your terms under the condition it is okay to make a "fire Pollack" or "fire Lou" thread. It keeps the board lively.

We'll have to table the "fire Lou" threads proposal until we see results, but I'm good with the "fire Pollack" threads even if we win the Superbowl 

[TecmoBengals]

(12-30-2023, 09:35 PM)bfine32 Wrote: We'll have to table the "fire Lou" threads proposal until we see results, but I'm good with the "fire Pollack" threads even if we win the Superbowl 

[Housh]

This post is why Iv been on this board for so long


Good damn info

[Housh]

(12-30-2023, 08:58 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: Going into Jungle Noise if we lose tomorrow. 

I am 100% enacting my yearly JN break if we lost tomorrow lol+

[Science Friction]

(12-30-2023, 11:17 PM)Housh Wrote: This post is why Iv been on this board for so long


Good damn info

Thank you, sir.  I went through a several cold drinks working through all the various scenarios.  

[Bronxbengal]

Only way we get in the playoffs offs would be a miracle with the defense playing out of their minds. The defense has been horrible all year and I don’t see it changing in the next two weeks. Even if we did make the playoffs it would be one and done. Reminiscent of the Marvin Lewis days.


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[BengalYankee]

(12-31-2023, 11:31 AM)Bronxbengal Wrote: Only way we get in the playoffs offs would be a miracle with the defense playing out of their minds.  The defense has been horrible all year and I don’t see it changing in the next two weeks.  Even if we did make the playoffs it would be one and done.  Reminiscent of the Marvin Lewis days.  


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

And the Paul Brown days.