Potential Restructures

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

(01-12-2024, 08:59 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: The key part of restructuring a guy's contract is that you are pushing cap hits into the future. That means you are either commiting to them being on your team for multiple years or are going to eat a large dead cap hit if you want to eventually move on. They have to be under contract for at least 2 more years (or you have to do void years which means dead cap) and they need a good sized base salary as that is what you will be turning into a signing bonus to prorate.

So I would actually lean more towards Burrow ($10.7m base salary), Hendrickson ($14.8m base salary) and probably Cappa ($6m base salary) as the three guys who you are probable fine fully commiting in advance that you will keep them for their entire contract.

Capwise you could clear almost $8m with Burrow, $7.5m with Hendrickson, and $2.5m with Cappa if you needed to for about $18m more in 2024 cap space. ($24m if we cut Mixon)

Don't think our FO really operates like that, though. Never trying to get the most talent they can fit now to try to win. It also means more cash having to be spent now by them.

Great post. Thanks for the contract stuff. You'd think after so long with NOT winning the SB, they would think about doing things differently. Though maybe the Mixon deal signals a new day and a new way. Who Dey! 

$24 mil would be huge. Space does not always translate into big time players. But I'd much rather create space by restructures than cutting guys who are still plus players (Hubbard, BJ Hill, Mixon, Karras, Cappa, Wilson, Pratt, etc). I have no issues with an extra year for Burrow, Cappa, or Trey. 

And as much as I love the idea of nabbing Henry, cutting Mixin the yearcafter he restructured would be some cold sh!t. It would not exactly encourage others to follow suit. 

[jj22]

(01-13-2024, 03:03 PM)casear2727 Wrote: How can we simply sign Justin Jefferson?  Are you expecting the Vikings to cut him this offseason?

I’m expecting a trade once they lose Tee. Maybe it won’t be JJ, but it’s going to be a higher quality WR then some of the names being thrown around here. That they’ll at least sign. Burrow is not going to like losing Tee, and he’s close with Chase too. No Boyd. Bengals are in a tricky situation if they lose TEE. They’ll have to make a move. And it’ll have to be one that makes Burrow and Chase forget about Tee. What ever received they sign. They wont head into the season with only Chase proven, and they will pay receivers. 

But why not ship the first in 2024 (that we may have to spend on a WR anyway) and a 2nd in 2025 (flushed with comp picks from losing Tee, Boyd, Williams) to a ready to rebuild Minny. JJ wants out and desperately and openly wants a reunion with Burrow and Chase.  

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(01-13-2024, 10:21 PM)jj22 Wrote: I’m expecting a trade once they lose Tee. Maybe it won’t be JJ, but it’s going to be a higher quality WR then some of the names being thrown around here. That they’ll at least sign. Burrow is not going to like losing Tee, and he’s close with Chase too. No Boyd. Bengals are in a tricky situation if they lose TEE. They’ll have to make a move. And it’ll have to be one that makes Burrow and Chase forget about Tee. What ever received they sign. They wont head into the season with only Chase proven, and they will pay receivers. 

But why not ship the first in 2024 (that we may have to spend on a WR anyway) and a 2nd in 2025 (flushed with comp picks from losing Tee, Boyd, Williams) to a ready to rebuild Minny. JJ wants out and desperately and openly wants a reunion with Burrow and Chase.  

It would take a LOT more than that. Tyreek took a 1st, 2nd, and 4th from that year and a 4th and 6th in the next year, and he was over 3 years older at the time than Jefferson currently is.

Tyreek had 6,630 yards in 6 years at KC. Jefferson has had 5,899 yards in 4 years in Minn. The dude's absurd.

[jj22]

(01-13-2024, 10:44 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: It would take a LOT more than that. Tyreek took a 1st, 2nd, and 4th from that year and a 4th and 6th in the next year, and he was over 3 years older at the time than Jefferson currently is.

Tyreek had 6,630 yards in 6 years at KC. Jefferson has had 5,899 yards in 4 years in Minn. The dude's absurd.

I wouldn’t give up all that for a trade. But if they were willing to spend 20+ on Tee. I expect that level of replacement given there is no one else proven outside of Chase. Even if we draft one you never know with rookie wideouts. 

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(01-13-2024, 10:52 PM)jj22 Wrote: I wouldn’t give up all that for a trade. But if they were willing to spend 20+ on Tee. I expect that level of replacement given there is no one else proven outside of Chase. Even if we draft one you never know with rookie wideouts. 

You'd almost certainly have to give up even more than the Tyreek trade. Jefferson 3 years younger than Tyreek was at the time and more production at the time. 

That's what it would cost to get a truly elite WR in a trade.

Heck, Davante Adams took a same year 1st and 2nd round pick and he was heading into his age 30 season, 5 years older at the time than Jefferson is now and Jefferson has already had two seasons with a higher yard total than Adams' career high.

Gonna have to lower expectations on a Tee-level replacement to go with Burrow's big contract and Chase's soon to arrive big contract. Think more like a couple mid-lower tier vets to pair with the cheap rookie contract guys.

[casear2727]

(01-13-2024, 10:21 PM)jj22 Wrote: I’m expecting a trade once they lose Tee. Maybe it won’t be JJ, but it’s going to be a higher quality WR then some of the names being thrown around here. That they’ll at least sign. Burrow is not going to like losing Tee, and he’s close with Chase too. No Boyd. Bengals are in a tricky situation if they lose TEE. They’ll have to make a move. And it’ll have to be one that makes Burrow and Chase forget about Tee. What ever received they sign. They wont head into the season with only Chase proven, and they will pay receivers. 

But why not ship the first in 2024 (that we may have to spend on a WR anyway) and a 2nd in 2025 (flushed with comp picks from losing Tee, Boyd, Williams) to a ready to rebuild Minny. JJ wants out and desperately and openly wants a reunion with Burrow and Chase.  

It is interesting that you expect the Bengals to make a blockbuster trade.   Can you name the last big time trade we made that didn't involve a disgruntled player?

I was told the Bengals already offered Tee 20M and were rejected.  Burrow and Chase will be fine if Tee wants too much and leaves, they understand the business.

Not sure why it is sos difficult to operate in reality?

Sign JJ form the Vikings?  Trade a million picks for JJ just to pay him over 30M along with Chase?  What are we Cleveland?

Thinking Burrow and Chase have this much pull?  Thinking you know that JJ wants to desperately be with Burrow and Chase?  Link for that?  I have multiple links that reveal JJ claiming he wants Cousins back next season.

The Bengals will make a move. They will make the same move they ALWAYS make.  Tee will be extended or tagged.  It's not rocket science.

[jj22]

If they are willing to spend 20+ on Tee and 15m in Reader per the op’s calculations then signing neither and blowing that money on an elite receiver isn’t the issue.

We’ll worry about Chase in 3 years. What we need to worry about is how losing Tee changes a bubling dynamic the trio have. Not easily replicated or replaced.

Now you right about the trade. But if they let Tee walk I can see a reactionary move. Panic move if they really wanted him back. And you never know as things have changed.

They’ll never give up the Hill or more amount so it’s a good point by Leap. But it’s a good wideout FA and draft class, which will lower demand. Minny if they can’t work out a deal and are going to rebuild might have to take the best offer.

It’s the offseason. None of this is reality. We already know how things are ie Pollack retuning, after dreaming of a replacement. But until it plays out everything and anything is possible.

[casear2727]

(01-13-2024, 11:14 PM)jj22 Wrote: If they are willing to spend 20+ on Tee and 15m in Reader per the op’s calculations then signing neither and blowing that money on an elite receiver isn’t the issue.

We’ll worry about Chase in 3 years. What we need to worry about is how losing Tee changes a bubling dynamic the trio have. Not easily replicated or replaced.

Now you right about the trade. But if they let Tee walk I can see a reactionary move. Panic move if they really wanted him back. And you never know as things have changed.

They’ll never give up the Hill or more amount so it’s a good point by Leap.  But it’s a good wideout FA and draft class, which will lower demand. Minny if they can’t work out a deal and are going to rebuild might have to take the best offer.

It’s the offseason. None of this is reality. We already know how things are ie Pollack retuning, after dreaming of a replacement. But until it plays out everything and anything is possible.

15M to Reader pst injury doesnt seem to be realistic.

Wait 3 years on Chase?  How does that make ANY sense?  I'll help out, it doesnt.  That is a horrendously horrible idea.

WR salaries have skyrocketed the last few years waiting 3 years would be the dumbest decision this org has ever made. 

Chase is eligible now for an extension, their is a very real and basic reason why star players are extended as early as possible.  We can extend Chase to 2030 based on 2023/2024 numbers without ANY competitors in the mix.  Or we can use your odd ideology and wait 3 years until after we have tagged Jamar and sign him for the same amount of time but for at least 50% more money while competing with every other team in the NFL.

[jj22]

(01-13-2024, 11:46 PM)casear2727 Wrote: 15M to Reader pst injury doesnt seem to be realistic.

Wait 3 years on Chase?  How does that make ANY sense?  I'll help out, it doesnt.  That is a horrendously horrible idea.

WR salaries have skyrocketed the last few years waiting 3 years would be the dumbest decision this org has ever made. 

Chase is eligible now for an extension, their is a very real and basic reason why star players are extended as early as possible.  We can extend Chase to 2030 based on 2023/2024 numbers without ANY competitors in the mix.  Or we can use your odd ideology and wait 3 years until after we have tagged Jamar and sign him for the same amount of time but for at least 50% more money while competing with every other team in the NFL.

If they are going to spend wr1 money this is the year they have to do it as to not have too much of an overlap between the player and Chase. Even if they tag Tee I think it takes an extension of Chase off the table this year and if Chase is waiting on JJ it’ll be 2 years before he’ll see an extension. 5th year option and tag for JJ. 

Chase extension is 3 years away. He isn’t a QB, so you are up against a raise in cost to keep him but not at an qb rate. He has incentives to wait. 

I don’t think it’s far fetched Chase hast to wait 2-3 more years. If we wan them to continue to spend, even with the Burrow contract, holding off on Chase isn’t a bad thing.

[casear2727]

(01-14-2024, 01:22 AM)jj22 Wrote: If they are going to spend wr1 money this is the year they have to do it as to not have too much of an overlap between the player and Chase. Even if they tag Tee I think it takes an extension of Chase off the table this year and if Chase is waiting on JJ it’ll be 2 years before he’ll see an extension. 5th year option and tag for JJ. 

Chase extension is 3 years away. He isn’t a QB, so you are up against a raise in cost to keep him but not at an qb rate. He has incentives to wait. 

I don’t think it’s far fetched Chase hast to wait 2-3 more years.  If we wan them to continue to spend, even with the Burrow contract, holding off on Chase isn’t a bad thing.

Again your take is not logical.  Tagging Tee has ZERO to do with extending Chase right now.

The Vikings are trying to extend JJ right now, they are also trying to sign Cousins. They can likely do both.  Chase will not wait 2-3 years for JJ, Chase is not stupid and we will offer him plenty.

Holding off on Chase would be Grade A stupid.  Every year they wait could cost them an additional $15 to 20M.  Hopefully we will not be this dumb.

I fully expect us to tag Tee, extend Chase and McPherson this offseason.

[*bfine32*]

(01-14-2024, 01:37 AM)casear2727 Wrote: Again your take is not logical.  Tagging Tee has ZERO to do with extending Chase right now.

The Vikings are trying to extend JJ right now, they are also trying to sign Cousins. They can likely do both.  Chase will not wait 2-3 years for JJ, Chase is not stupid and we will offer him plenty.

Holding off on Chase would be Grade A stupid.  Every year they wait could cost them an additional $15 to 20M.  Hopefully we will not be this dumb.

I fully expect us to tag Tee, extend Chase and McPherson this offseason.

You say that as if he has a choice. 

[casear2727]

(01-14-2024, 01:44 AM)bfine32 Wrote: You say that as if he has a choice. 

Of course Chase has a choice.  Who is making Chase wait on JJ?

[*bfine32*]

(01-14-2024, 01:46 AM)casear2727 Wrote: Of course Chase has a choice.  Who is making Chase wait on JJ?

The Bengals?

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

(01-13-2024, 10:59 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: You'd almost certainly have to give up even more than the Tyreek trade. Jefferson 3 years younger than Tyreek was at the time and more production at the time. 

That's what it would cost to get a truly elite WR in a trade.

Heck, Davante Adams took a same year 1st and 2nd round pick and he was heading into his age 30 season, 5 years older at the time than Jefferson is now and Jefferson has already had two seasons with a higher yard total than Adams' career high.

Gonna have to lower expectations on a Tee-level replacement to go with Burrow's big contract and Chase's soon to arrive big contract. Think more like a couple mid-lower tier vets to pair with the cheap rookie contract guys.

Dome posts here are ridiculous. Not yours. 

1) Tee is not going anywhere (at least not this year). 

2) I doubt Chase signs an extension this year. He wants to go last (after Jefferson). Most WR's don't do it until after Y4. And we can save some cap space. 

[casear2727]

(01-14-2024, 01:58 AM)bfine32 Wrote: The Bengals?

Why would the Bengals want Chase to wait on JJ?  That makes zero sense.  

Teams always hope to extend stars at high price positions as early as possible.  

They may not do it this off season, but the Bengals would definitely want to for a number of reasons.

[casear2727]

(01-14-2024, 02:08 AM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: Dome posts here are ridiculous. Not yours. 

1) Tee is not going anywhere (at least not this year). 

2) I doubt Chase signs an extension this year. He wants to go last (after Jefferson). Most WR's don't do it until after Y4. And we can save some cap space. 

Sure, lets wait for Burrows cap hit to be at 46M in 2025 instead of 29M in 2024. 

There is no way the Bengals do NOT want to sign Chase asap.

Im not remotely sold that he will wait years for JJ.   

[*bfine32*]

(01-14-2024, 02:10 AM)casear2727 Wrote: Why would the Bengals want Chase to wait on JJ?  That makes zero sense.  

Teams always hope to extend stars at high price positions as early as possible.  

They may not do it this off season, but the Bengals would definitely want to for a number of reasons.

They can easily make him wait 3 years and save mega bucks. JJ has nothing to do with it. 

He's under contract for 24

We can pick up the option for 25

We can Tag 26

Hell, we could even tag 27

Do you think JJ's waiting on someone or the Vikes just haven't offered him what he wants. 

[casear2727]

(01-14-2024, 02:13 AM)bfine32 Wrote: They can easily make him wait 3 years and save mega bucks. JJ has nothing to do with it. 

He's under contract for 24

We can pick up the option for 25

We can Tag 26

Hell, we could even tag 27

Do you think JJ's waiting on someone or the Vikes just haven't offered him what he wants. 

I think the Vikings havent offered JJ what he wants.  I think that is obvious.

Do you think the Bengals want to keep Chase past 2026? 

If so make it make sense.  He will be 26 years old, likely cost at least much, much more than he would with an extension now and there would be a bidding war.

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

(01-13-2024, 11:46 PM)casear2727 Wrote: 15M to Reader pst injury doesnt seem to be realistic.

Wait 3 years on Chase?  How does that make ANY sense?  I'll help out, it doesnt.  That is a horrendously horrible idea.

WR salaries have skyrocketed the last few years waiting 3 years would be the dumbest decision this org has ever made. 

Chase is eligible now for an extension, their is a very real and basic reason why star players are extended as early as possible.  We can extend Chase to 2030 based on 2023/2024 numbers without ANY competitors in the mix.  Or we can use your odd ideology and wait 3 years until after we have tagged Jamar and sign him for the same amount of time but for at least 50% more money while competing with every other team in the NFL.

Spotrac has his market value at $15 mil. For whatever that is worth. Foulr our guys: 

Player, Spotrac MV, PFF projection

1. Higgins, $18.6, Franchise Tag
2. Reader, $15.9, $15.2
3. Jonah, $14.9, $16.0
4. Chido, NR yet, $11.5
5. Boyd, $8.7, $8.75 mil


https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/cincinnati-bengals/

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2024-free-agent-rankings-free-agency

FWIW, prospects for targets: 

Player, Spotrac MV, PFF Projection 
1. C. Jones, DT, $28.1, $30.0
2. Madubuike, DT, $20.3, $23.0
3. Wilkins, DT, $20.2, Franchise tag
4. Winfield, S, $18.5, Franchise tag
5. Johnson, CB, $15.7, Franchise tag
6. Sneed, CB, $11.8, $17.5
7. Smith, OT, NR yet, $10 mil
8. Brown, OT, NR yet, $7.5 mil
9. Schultz, TE, $11.3,  $11.0
10. Henry, RB, $4.3, $10.0

[casear2727]

(01-14-2024, 02:41 AM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: Spotrac has his market value at $15 mil. For whatever that is worth. Foulr our guys: 

Player, Spotrac MV, PFF projection

1. Higgins, $18.6, Franchise Tag
2. Reader, $15.9, $15.2
3. Jonah, $14.9, $16.0
4. Chido, NR yet, $11.5
5. Boyd, $8.7, $8.75 mil


https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/cincinnati-bengals/

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2024-free-agent-rankings-free-agency

FWIW, prospects for targets: 

Player, Spotrac MV, PFF Projection 
1. C. Jones, DT, $28.1, $30.0
2. Madubuike, DT, $20.3, $23.0
3. Wilkins, DT, $20.2, Franchise tag
4. Winfield, S, $18.5, Franchise tag
5. Johnson, CB, $15.7, Franchise tag
6. Sneed, CB, $11.8, $17.5
7. Smith, OT, NR yet, $10 mil
8. Brown, OT, NR yet, $7.5 mil
9. Schultz, TE, $11.3,  $11.0
10. Henry, RB, $4.3, $10.0

Do you really think DJ is signing for $15M with a torn quad that might not be ready for the start of the season at age 30?