Should Wilkins be #1 FA target if not tagged?

[SunsetBengal]

(01-17-2024, 09:49 PM)bfine32 Wrote: So you're stating Years playing has a bigger effect than how old you are?

We agree on that

If you're saying the toll on the body playing in college is equal to years playing in the pros

We disagree on that

In college they go through a lot more practice reps, and many teams run more plays per game.  The NFL has a longer season, but has greatly diminished the amount of practice reps that are allowed.  I would think that they would be fairly equal, in terms of amount of wear on the body.

[*bfine32*]

(01-18-2024, 08:50 AM)SunsetBengal Wrote: In college they go through a lot more practice reps, and many teams run more plays per game.  The NFL has a longer season, but has greatly diminished the amount of practice reps that are allowed.  I would think that they would be fairly equal, in terms of amount of wear on the body.

Well just disagree then. Big difference between going against professional football players who are the biggest, fastest, strongest folks in their field and going against a bunch of kids who will most likely be accountants and lawyers after school. 

You may also want to look at the limits placed on college practices. 

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

(01-16-2024, 03:38 PM)Synric Wrote: Christian Wilkins plays alot of shade NT with Zach Seiler as the 3t. The Dolphins 4 man front is Melvin Ingram, Zach Seiler, Christian Wilkins, and Emmanuel Ogbah. I know Raekwon Davis is listed as the "Nose Tackle" but he only plays 45% of the snaps he's like Josh Tupou for the Bengals. Wilkins is also one of the best run defending Defensive Tackles in the NFL. 

Wilkins is 6'4", 310 lbs. That is small for a nose or run stopping DT. He plays the run well but isn't an anchor..In a 5 man front, he is never the nose. 

Reader is 6'3', 335. Much bigger dude. 

Cannot afford to be undersized at NT/DT in our division. 

Hill is 6'3"", 311. He is a combo guy. 
Tupou is 6'3", 340. He is Reader's backup. 
Carter is 6'4", 295. Hill's backup. 
Tufele is 6'3", 295. Usually inactive. 

Wilkins is a replacement/upgrade for Hill/Carter/Tufele. He is too small to play the Reader/Tupou role. 

In a five man front, he and Hill would work well flanking the NT. But we will struggle mightily if either IS the nose.

And again, $10 mil for your backup DT is awful steep. It COULD be done. But other than 3rd down passing D, Hill & Wilkins would not play much together as the lone DTs/NTs.

[*Synric*]

(01-18-2024, 02:50 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: Wilkins is 6'4", 310 lbs. That is small for a nose or run stopping DT. He plays the run well but isn't an anchor..In a 5 man front, he is never the nose. 

Reader is 6'3', 335. Much bigger dude. 

Cannot afford to be undersized at NT/DT in our division. 

Hill is 6'3"", 311. He is a combo guy. 
Tupou is 6'3", 340. He is Reader's backup. 
Carter is 6'4", 295. Hill's backup. 
Tufele is 6'3", 295. Usually inactive. 

Wilkins is a replacement/upgrade for Hill/Carter/Tufele. He is too small to play the Reader/Tupou role. 

In a five man front, he and Hill would work well flanking the NT. But we will struggle mightily if either IS the nose.

And again, $10 mil for your backup DT is awful steep. It COULD be done. But other than 3rd down passing D, Hill & Wilkins would not play much together as the lone DTs/NTs.

Shade Nose Tackle is also called a 1tech its a penetrating A gap defender its less about size. Wilkins can play 1t to 5t giving him incredible range as an IDL. A big body for the 0t is easier to find than someone with Wilkins range and high level play. Reader shows range playing 0 to 4i which is what really makes him special (he plays 0t rarely that's more Tupous job). 

[The D.O.Z.]

(01-18-2024, 03:21 PM)Synric Wrote: Shade Nose Tackle is also called a 1tech its a penetrating A gap defender its less about size. Wilkins can play 1t to 5t giving him incredible range as an IDL. A big body for the 0t is easier to find than someone with Wilkins range and high level play. Reader shows range playing 0 to 4i which is what really makes him special (he plays 0t rarely that's more Tupous job). 

Adds to why I wouldn't mind having Wilkins. He CAN play all over, effectively, IF Lou schemes well. Having a versatile DLine rotation where some guys can line up in different spots, especially along the interior, could be a good thing! Especially with a front searching for more pass rush / TFLs. We could then sign a NT who's role is to rotate in, depending on down and distance. Plus doesn't Lou like the occasional 5-man front? Having Hill and Wilkins flanking a NT, with Hendrickson and Hubbard / Murphy rushing out of any stance? Sign me up!

I just wanna add, 6'7" 310 is STILL a force to be reckoned with, even if it's perceived undersized for a NT. The old addage "it ain't about the size of the dog in the fight" comes to mind. If he can play the position, even as a "shade" NT, and it vastly improves your defensive front, you get him on the team and you use him. We use a base 4-3 hybrid anyways, in a passing league, how useful is a fulltime NT when comparing it to an IDL player you can line up in any interior spot (and outside DE in 3-4 looks if Lou chooses) and be more versatile with what you can scheme up for the opposing offense every week?

I really like Reader. I hate that he got hurt, especially so late in the season. Had he stayed healthy, I would be all for resigning him. But maybe this is the right time to start rethinking some things, personnel wise, on the defensive side of the ball?

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(01-18-2024, 02:50 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: Carter is 6'4", 295. Hill's backup.

Apparently Carter was 282lbs at the Combine, which is the closest you will ever get to an accurate measurement for an NFL player in their career. What the team lists them at afterwards compared to that gives you an idea if they're trying to look bigger or smaller. (Ben Roethlisberger for instance somehow got about twice as wide in his 30s but lost 1 pound from his combine weight. Lol) So the fact that Carter is only listed at 290 on NFL.com as a DT makes me think that 282 was him trying to put up a larger number with water weight and he might struggle to maintain even that.

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/zach-carter/32004341-5278-6801-508d-115b8e175a05

Makes me wonder if he's not a 4-3 or 3-4 DE who tried to bulk up because his athleticism is solid for a DT, but would be quite poor for a DE.

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

(01-18-2024, 03:21 PM)Synric Wrote: Shade Nose Tackle is also called a 1tech its a penetrating A gap defender its less about size. Wilkins can play 1t to 5t giving him incredible range as an IDL. A big body for the 0t is easier to find than someone with Wilkins range and high level play. Reader shows range playing 0 to 4i which is what really makes him special (he plays 0t rarely that's more Tupous job). 

I know what it is. I am not saying Wilkins is not a good player. He is. I woukd absolutely sign him if I could. 

What I am saying is: 

1)  He cannot be your prinary run defender. We'd get pushed all over the field with him & Hill starting at DT. Especially in our division. Tupou gonna start? That is comical. 

3) $30 mil is an AWFUL lot to spend on your top 2 DTs who cannot start together. And you still need 1 quality NT run stuffer, maybe 2. 

Player: PFF, Solo, Assists, Sacks. 
BJ Hill, 67.7, 33, 16, 5 
Wilkins: 74.9, 39, 12, 10 

It is an upgrade, but not a gigantic one. Now  having those two play almost all the DT snaps and having Carter in Tufele's role? THAT is an upgrade. 

But we still need out and out run stopper (or 2) AND have a lot of other holes to fill. Which leads me back to cutting Hill to save cap, and that then diminishes the level of the upgrade. 

If I can do some creative contract restructures to open up a bit more space, then I am considerably less pearl-clutchy about it. 

[Whatever]

(01-18-2024, 02:50 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: Wilkins is 6'4", 310 lbs. That is small for a nose or run stopping DT. He plays the run well but isn't an anchor..In a 5 man front, he is never the nose. 

Reader is 6'3', 335. Much bigger dude. 

Cannot afford to be undersized at NT/DT in our division. 

Hill is 6'3"", 311. He is a combo guy. 
Tupou is 6'3", 340. He is Reader's backup. 
Carter is 6'4", 295. Hill's backup. 
Tufele is 6'3", 295. Usually inactive. 

Wilkins is a replacement/upgrade for Hill/Carter/Tufele. He is too small to play the Reader/Tupou role. 

In a five man front, he and Hill would work well flanking the NT. But we will struggle mightily if either IS the nose.

And again, $10 mil for your backup DT is awful steep. It COULD be done. But other than 3rd down passing D, Hill & Wilkins would not play much together as the lone DTs/NTs.

Have to keep in mind that we only play 6 games in the AFCN and 11 outside of it.

Wilkins was 13th in pass rush win rate among IDL last year while being double teamed on 65% of his pass rush snaps.  

Also, keep in mind that the Ravens leading rusher is Lamar Jackson. A big 350 pound 0 tech is actually a liability trying to defend against the read options, QB draws, etc that he makes his living at.  You'd rather have a guy with some bend and quick change of direction to defend that.

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

(01-19-2024, 03:37 PM)Whatever Wrote: Have to keep in mind that we only play 6 games in the AFCN and 11 outside of it.

Wilkins was 13th in pass rush win rate among IDL last year while being double teamed on 65% of his pass rush snaps.  

Also, keep in mind that the Ravens leading rusher is Lamar Jackson. A big 350 pound 0 tech is actually a liability trying to defend against the read options, QB draws, etc that he makes his living at.  You'd rather have a guy with some bend and quick change of direction to defend that.

The Ravens had 541 rushing plays last year. Jackson had 148 of them. And a lot of those are 3rd down scrambles. The idea he is their primary running option is just not true. 148/541 is 27.8%. Again, a lot of those are not designed/called runs and/or on 3rd down passes (when Reader likely is not on the field anyway). 

Your post ignores the facts that we play a lot of 5 man fronts in the division. Like I said, I'd love to see Wilkins & Hill flanking Reader. But you need a central NT in that formation. And Tupou cannot do it well & Wilkins cannot do it at all. He's simply too little. The Ravens run up the gut plenty (watch them make a run at Henry). 

Your post also seems to ignore what happened this year. We went 8-3 outside the division but still finished dead last because we got pushed around and were winless INSIDE the division until beating the Browns backups. A weaker run defense is gonna be 0'fer the division, again. 

Playing Wilkins & Hill together without a run stopper is suicidal in my view. Borderline idiotic. 

Gotta bring back Reader or land Sweat in the draft. Him being there at 49 AND being Reader level good is a longshot. 

I love Wilkins as a player, but uograding the run D (or at least not getting any worse) is a bigger priority for me than upping the interior pass rush. If I have enough cap to do it AFTER bringing back Tee & Reader (and I think we might), OK. But I need some other restrucures to free up space. 

There are some pretty darn good DT prospects lurking in Rd 2 (Murphy, Jenkins, etc). NT is thinner. 

I cannot blow all my cap on Wilkins. If I do it, I need the extra cap from restructures to fill another hole (TE1, WR3, CB4, NT filler while Reader gets healthy) or I cut Hill to create it. Or if I get favorable resolutions on Tee/DJ or Boyd/Chido another FA CB/NT that allow me to fit it in, I can do it. 

For me, Wilkins cannot be a Reader replacement. He's too small. He is a Hill replacement/upgrade. I think that is pretty straightforward. If so, that creates issues with cap management. 

My priorities/our holes, and our roughly $52 mil in funcyltional cap space: 

1) WR2: (Higgins): re-sign/tag
2) NT/DT: (Reader): re-sign
-----------------

Hopefully I can get that done for around $30 mil. $22 mil or so left. 

3) Starting RT: (Jonah): Round 1 draft 
4) Starting WR3 (Boyd): round 2-3 draft
5) Starting TE (Irv): Round 2-3 draft/FA 

After that, my biggest needs/uogrades are: 

6) Better interior pass rush 
7) CB depth: 
8) NT depth/fill in for Reader 

If I blow all my cap on Wilkins, I think I can fill 3 holes with my first 3 picks. I do not feel good about a Day 3 pick being CB4 or my Reader stand in. Though I could live with it. 

I'd feel much better if I have enough to plug another hole pre-draft. 

It is an interesting discussion. If I can free up $7-$10 mil through restructures, I think I do it. Otherwise, I have to cut Hill.