Our drafting has sucked lately

[Soonerpeace]

(01-31-2024, 03:30 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I think the Bengals are drafting in a spot that they *should* be able to get an immediate starter (or at least heavy reps), not riding the bench for (most of) the first year.
Before we go into FA, the Bengals could need starters/heavy snap opportunities at the following positions:
- WR2
- slot WR (although I think this is Charlie Jones)
- RT
- TE
- NT
- 3T rotation

For all those positions, Bengals can't just rely on draft picks because that'd be nearly the entire set of picks, so I expect at least 3 of these to get addressed in FA.

They need at minimum a RT and NT with FA & First rounder

[*ochocincos*]

(01-31-2024, 03:35 PM)Soonerpeace Wrote: They need at minimum a RT and NT with FA & First rounder

There isn't a 1st rounder NT in the draft, IMO.
If looking at the draft for NT, I think Day 2 is a great target for a new starter there.

RT and WR make the most sense to me in Rd 1 this year. Or Brock Bowers if he happens to fall there. I really feel like he's going to be like Hockenson in the league. Hockenson went 8th overall back in 2019.

If Bengals get both a WR and RT in FA, I'd love to get an IDL like Newton to boost the interior pass rush as a rookie and take over as primary 3T after Hill departs next year.

[depthchart]

(01-31-2024, 03:32 PM)Soonerpeace Wrote: I get that but we need 2 starters. A RT & DT at some point we need a really good player on a rookie deal. Don’t think this year we have that luxury JMHO

There should be a better chance of that this year since the Bengals have pick #18.

Hill and Murphy were late 1st round picks #31 and 28 respectively.

Easier to get immediate starters high (Chase #5 overall & Burrow #1 overall)

Getting immediate starters mid round 1 #18 should be easier than late round 1.

Probably comes down to the intent the Bengals have for the player selected.

Intended to start soon or sit behind a starter to develop.

[depthchart]

.


I would add and also wonder just how much "Best player available" BPA would factor in with the 1st round pick.

Not knowing exactly which players will be there plus not wanting to pass on a BPA makes it harder to just go

in drafting to "pick an instant starter" in round 1 at a certain position.

BPA may not mean that player is ready to start, just the best prospect longer term -or- there is already a solid starter

on the Bengals at the position the BPA plays but they want the BPA anyway for longer term.

[THE PISTONS]

(01-30-2024, 11:30 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: It's surprisingly irritating when people insist that Ross was a one trick pony due to his speed. He was a great prospect on paper for all of the reasons you mentioned. Ultimately he didn't work out, but it is such a lazy and misinformed opinion to say that he had nothing but speed. You don't get drafted in the top 10 purely on speed unless you're Darrius Heyward-Bey.

The fallacy is people think that if a guy is a bust that there is some way to spot it in college. In a lot of cases there wasn't.

Now a guy like Ogbuehi was coming off of a major knee injury and he gave up a lot of sacks in college. So in some rare cases, there are a lot of red flags for a prospect. ie drafting on Projection over Production. He looks like an athletic lineman. In 2014, he was one of the leaders in sacks allowed in the SEC.

[Whatever]

(01-31-2024, 03:38 PM)ochocincos Wrote: There isn't a 1st rounder NT in the draft, IMO.
If looking at the draft for NT, I think Day 2 is a great target for a new starter there.

RT and WR make the most sense to me in Rd 1 this year. Or Brock Bowers if he happens to fall there. I really feel like he's going to be like Hockenson in the league. Hockenson went 8th overall back in 2019.

If Bengals get both a WR and RT in FA, I'd love to get an IDL like Newton to boost the interior pass rush as a rookie and take over as primary 3T after Hill departs next year.

I don't see an immediate starter at NT in this draft class.  There are a few guys that could see snaps in a rotation, but no studs that could come in and be a quality starter in '24.

Tevondre Sweat, the Texas NT that many have been drooling over in the second, refused to weigh in at the Senior Bowl, is getting absolutely clowned in drills, and looks like he has ballooned up to 380.  

[Soonerpeace]

(01-31-2024, 03:43 PM)depthchart Wrote: There should be a better chance of that this year since the Bengals have pick #18.

Hill and Murphy were late 1st round picks #31 and 28 respectively.

Easier to get immediate starters high (Chase #5 overall & Burrow #1 overall)

Getting immediate starters mid round 1 #18 should be easier than late round 1.

Probably comes down to the intent the Bengals have for the player selected.

Intended to start soon or sit behind a starter to develop.

No doubt but this year it needs to be a starter period. I don’t think the roster is in as good as shape as the last 2 years.

[*ochocincos*]

(01-31-2024, 04:32 PM)Whatever Wrote: I don't see an immediate starter at NT in this draft class.  There are a few guys that could see snaps in a rotation, but no studs that could come in and be a quality starter in '24.

Tevondre Sweat, the Texas NT that many have been drooling over in the second, refused to weigh in at the Senior Bowl, is getting absolutely clowned in drills, and looks like he has ballooned up to 380.  

You don't think a single NT in the draft class could start right away?
Why do you think that?


Or do you just think none would be at Reader's level, which is upper-tier?

I don't think the Bengals NEED to have a guy at Reader's level as a replacement immediately.
We probably will have to accept there will be some downgrade at NT for anyone else they bring in.
But overall, a 2-down run-stuffing DT who is solid and contribute 400-500 defensive snaps shouldn't be overly difficult to find.
Maybe I've just never quite understood the difficulty of NT though, but to me, there's a reason most run-stuffing NTs don't command much $$.

[depthchart]

(01-31-2024, 04:55 PM)Soonerpeace Wrote: No doubt but this year it needs to be a starter period. I don’t think the roster is in as good as shape as the last 2 years.

I think the Bengals use Free Agency to get a Roster in place that they think they could live with all season if they had to.

Obviously there are times when they know they will be Drafting Starters like the Burrow and Chase Drafts but just as a Baseline

General Roster after Free Agency  They don't expect to live with that Roster. It is just the Floor with Veterans that can at least start.

They believe in those players enough to have them on the Roster and have all Week 1 starting positions filled (so to speak)

Then they can go into the Draft with more open mindedness to look for Best Players Available or find upgrades to what we see 

as holes that may start right away or find players that can replace current starters someday for future salary cap reasons or age.

Let's wait and see if anything Glaring stands out after Free Agency regarding starting spots. 

[Whatever]

(01-31-2024, 05:03 PM)ochocincos Wrote: You don't think a single NT in the draft class could start right away?
Why do you think that?


Or do you just think none would be at Reader's level, which is upper-tier?

I don't think the Bengals NEED to have a guy at Reader's level as a replacement immediately.
We probably will have to accept there will be some downgrade at NT for anyone else they bring in.
But overall, a 2-down run-stuffing DT who is solid and contribute 400-500 defensive snaps shouldn't be overly difficult to find.
Maybe I've just never quite understood the difficulty of NT though, but to me, there's a reason most run-stuffing NTs don't command much $$.

Why would you think there is one?  It's not a good NT class.  There's no NT with a 1st round grade at all.  The highest graded one is Sweat, who's flirting with falling out of the Top 50 entirely(though he is showing better today).  If there was a NT that experts thought could immediately be a quality starter, they'd have a 1st round grade.

NT has a huge learning curve, anyways.  Not only are you going through the jump from college to NFL competition, but unlike most other DL, you face constant double teams.

You can draft a guy and throw him out there as a starter, but it doesn't mean he's that caliber of player, at least not yet.  If you're in a rebuild, that's fine.  If you're gunning for a SB, it's not.  It doesn't make sense when there's a number of proven NT's in FA.  

[*ochocincos*]

(01-31-2024, 05:29 PM)Whatever Wrote: Why would you think there is one?  It's not a good NT class.  There's no NT with a 1st round grade at all.  The highest graded one is Sweat, who's flirting with falling out of the Top 50 entirely(though he is showing better today).  If there was a NT that experts thought could immediately be a quality starter, they'd have a 1st round grade.

NT has a huge learning curve, anyways.  Not only are you going through the jump from college to NFL competition, but unlike most other DL, you face constant double teams.

You can draft a guy and throw him out there as a starter, but it doesn't mean he's that caliber of player, at least not yet.  If you're in a rebuild, that's fine.  If you're gunning for a SB, it's not.  It doesn't make sense when there's a number of proven NT's in FA.  

I don't feel that's how that works.
If that was the case, we'd be seeing way more RBs, TEs, and NTs with 1st round grades.

It's more about value of the player at impactful positions.
NTs are not as highly valued because most don't offer much in the pass rush department at all.


Let's look at Baltimore's NT, Michael Pierce as an example.
Pierce went undrafted in 2016.
He only started 1 game as a rookie, but he played nearly 400 snaps that year, putting up 35 tackles (5 TFL) and 2 sacks.
The next year, he played 594 defensive snaps and started 13 games. He put up 49 tackles (2 TFL), 1 sack.
This past season, he played 640 defensive snaps, starting the entire season. He put up 42 tackles (2 TFL), 1 sack.
Pierce is considered one of the better NTs in the league.

Harrison Phillips is another example of contributing a lot early but not being a 1st round pick. Phillips was 3rd round with BUF and played 389 defensive snaps as a rookie.

It's definitely possible to find quick contributors at NT in the draft outside of the 1st round.

Let me turn this around though...other than Reader (who is coming off an injury btw), what other NT in FA is worth getting to fill that NT spot?
I ask because I'm ok taking a chance on a rookie after looking at the FA crop.
If Bengals want to sign Reader on a 1-year or 2-year stopgap deal as well, that's fine, but I don't think it's nearly as difficult finding a solid NT as you do.

[Whatever]

(01-31-2024, 05:39 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I don't feel that's how that works.
If that was the case, we'd be seeing way more RBs, TEs, and NTs with 1st round grades.

It's more about value of the player at impactful positions.
NTs are not as highly valued because most don't offer much in the pass rush department at all.


Let's look at Baltimore's NT, Michael Pierce as an example.
Pierce went undrafted in 2016.
He only started 1 game as a rookie, but he played nearly 400 snaps that year, putting up 35 tackles (5 TFL) and 2 sacks.
The next year, he played 594 defensive snaps and started 13 games. He put up 49 tackles (2 TFL), 1 sack.
This past season, he played 640 defensive snaps, starting the entire season. He put up 42 tackles (2 TFL), 1 sack.
Pierce is considered one of the better NTs in the league.

Harrison Phillips is another example of contributing a lot early but not being a 1st round pick. Phillips was 3rd round with BUF and played 389 defensive snaps as a rookie.

It's definitely possible to find quick contributors at NT in the draft outside of the 1st round.

Let me turn this around though...other than Reader (who is coming off an injury btw), what other NT in FA is worth getting to fill that NT spot?
I ask because I'm ok taking a chance on a rookie after looking at the FA crop.
If Bengals want to sign Reader on a 1-year or 2-year stopgap deal as well, that's fine, but I don't think it's nearly as difficult finding a solid NT as you do.

Sure, the Ravens got Pierce as an UDFA.  And the year before, they spent a 3rd on 335 pound NT Carl Davis who they cut a year later. 

For every Pierce, there's a dozen Shelvins.  You can't RELY on getting a starting caliber player at a specific position.  Not to mention that contributing snaps in a rotation is not the same as starting. 

In FA, aside from the much debated Christian Wilkins, there's Grover Stewart from the Colts, who was 3rd in Run Stop Win Rate last season.  There's DaQuan Jones from the Bills.  There's Johnathan Hankins from the Cowboys.  There's Sheldon Rankins from the Texans.  

I am not saying absolutely don't draft a NT.  I am saying don't go into this draft having to draft a NT.  

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(01-30-2024, 11:30 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: It's surprisingly irritating when people insist that Ross was a one trick pony due to his speed. He was a great prospect on paper for all of the reasons you mentioned. Ultimately he didn't work out, but it is such a lazy and misinformed opinion to say that he had nothing but speed. You don't get drafted in the top 10 purely on speed unless you're Darrius Heyward-Bey.

Equally irritating is if people pretend there wasn't a whole boatload of red flags about John Ross and those red flags weren't overlooked because speed.


John Ross was a <5'11" and <190lb WR who had had one knee with an ACL tear, the other knee with 3 meniscus tears. He had a torn labrum his draft offseason that got surgery that December, and then he injured his calf running his 40 yard dash. 

He had exactly 1 year of production and in that year he got absolutely shut down by Alabama (5 catches for 28 yards (5.6 AVG).

Then here comes the NFL and he gets an injured knee and ends up on the IR with a shoulder injury. Then he pulls his groin, pulls his groin again. Then he goes on IR with yet another shoulder injury.

(01-31-2024, 04:20 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: The fallacy is people think that if a guy is a bust that there is some way to spot it in college. In a lot of cases there wasn't.

Now a guy like Ogbuehi was coming off of a major knee injury and he gave up a lot of sacks in college. So in some rare cases, there are a lot of red flags for a prospect. ie drafting on Projection over Production. He looks like an athletic lineman. In 2014, he was one of the leaders in sacks allowed in the SEC.

Ross had missed the entire previous year and then after his one productive season he needed shoulder surgery. He hurt himself running his 40. 

He was a small fragile dude with small hands and had only played WR for an entire year once. He missed 2015 entirely, in 2014 he was a part-time WR and part-time CB, and in 2013 he was a return specialist.

[*ochocincos*]

(01-31-2024, 06:54 PM)Whatever Wrote: Sure, the Ravens got Pierce as an UDFA.  And the year before, they spent a 3rd on 335 pound NT Carl Davis who they cut a year later. 

For every Pierce, there's a dozen Shelvins.  You can't RELY on getting a starting caliber player at a specific position.  Not to mention that contributing snaps in a rotation is not the same as starting. 

In FA, aside from the much debated Christian Wilkins, there's Grover Stewart from the Colts, who was 3rd in Run Stop Win Rate last season.  There's DaQuan Jones from the Bills.  There's Johnathan Hankins from the Cowboys.  There's Sheldon Rankins from the Texans.  

I am not saying absolutely don't draft a NT.  I am saying don't go into this draft having to draft a NT.  

I wouldn't consider Sheldon Rankins a NT.
DaQuan Jones won't happen because he's 32 years old.
Hankins about to turn 32, so also won't happen.
Stewart also 30 years old.
Bengals will want a guy under 30, at least based on their other FA signings the past few years.

Any NT you see worth picking up in FA that will be 29 or younger this year?

[KillerGoose]

(01-31-2024, 07:53 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Equally irritating is if people pretend there wasn't a whole boatload of red flags about John Ross and those red flags weren't overlooked because speed.


John Ross was a <5'11" and <190lb WR who had had one knee with an ACL tear, the other knee with 3 meniscus tears. He had a torn labrum his draft offseason that got surgery that December, and then he injured his calf running his 40 yard dash. 

He had exactly 1 year of production and in that year he got absolutely shut down by Alabama (5 catches for 28 yards (5.6 AVG).

Then here comes the NFL and he gets an injured knee and ends up on the IR with a shoulder injury. Then he pulls his groin, pulls his groin again. Then he goes on IR with yet another shoulder injury.


Ross had missed the entire previous year and then after his one productive season he needed shoulder surgery. He hurt himself running his 40. 

He was a small fragile dude with small hands and had only played WR for an entire year once. He missed 2015 entirely, in 2014 he was a part-time WR and part-time CB, and in 2013 he was a return specialist.

To be clear, I'm not trying to pretend that he had no red flags. His injury history was an issue and obviously manifested once he got to the NFL. I can happily accept that he wasn't a flawless prospect. I just take umbrage with the assessment of "he was fast and nothing else". There were several other reasons that brought him as high as he went, but it never worked out. 

[*Synric*]

(01-31-2024, 07:53 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I wouldn't consider Sheldon Rankins a NT.
DaQuan Jones won't happen because he's 32 years old.
Hankins about to turn 32, so also won't happen.
Stewart also 30 years old.
Bengals will want a guy under 30, at least based on their other FA signings the past few years.

Any NT you see worth picking up in FA that will be 29 or younger this year?

Andrew Billings could get them through a month or 2 until Reader is healthy and also opens them up to drafting more of a 3T which is probabaly a deeper class this year. Grover Stewart would be a great pickup though for a rotational nose tackle.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(01-31-2024, 08:03 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: To be clear, I'm not trying to pretend that he had no red flags. His injury history was an issue and obviously manifested once he got to the NFL. I can happily accept that he wasn't a flawless prospect. I just take umbrage with the assessment of "he was fast and nothing else". There were several other reasons that brought him as high as he went, but it never worked out. 

Fair, but I think if you take the exact same player, same injuries, same production, and make him a 4.40 guy (still fast, but not record fast)... he is suddenly a 6th Round guy.

[*ochocincos*]

(01-31-2024, 08:08 PM)Synric Wrote: Andrew Billings could get them through a month or 2 until Reader is healthy and also opens them up to drafting more of a 3T which is probabaly a deeper class this year. Grover Stewart would be a great pickup though for a rotational nose tackle.

I always thought Billings was solid.
I'd welcome him back as a stopgap/rotational guy with a drafted DT.
He also will still be under 30 years old when the season starts.

[*ochocincos*]

(01-31-2024, 05:29 PM)Whatever Wrote: Why would you think there is one?  It's not a good NT class.  There's no NT with a 1st round grade at all.  The highest graded one is Sweat, who's flirting with falling out of the Top 50 entirely(though he is showing better today).  If there was a NT that experts thought could immediately be a quality starter, they'd have a 1st round grade.

NT has a huge learning curve, anyways.  Not only are you going through the jump from college to NFL competition, but unlike most other DL, you face constant double teams.

You can draft a guy and throw him out there as a starter, but it doesn't mean he's that caliber of player, at least not yet.  If you're in a rebuild, that's fine.  If you're gunning for a SB, it's not.  It doesn't make sense when there's a number of proven NT's in FA.  

Here's a note about Sweat from today's Senior Bowl practice...
https://saintswire.usatoday.com/lists/senior-bowl-highlights-practice-notes-day-2-2024-nfl-draft-prospects/

Quote:DL T'Vondre Sweat looks powerful
The 360-ish pound defensive lineman looks like he has put all of his weight into his insane strength. He could be a guy that plugs the middle of a defensive line.

[Gdale_Bengal]

(01-31-2024, 10:18 AM)WychesWarrior Wrote: Damn Willie! I either didn't know that, or had forgotten.

I love Willie but I don’t think he should be making cases for future lineman.

I had high hopes for Carman but inevitably he’s a big bust and a what if with all the players who could have been drafted in his place