We Need a Better Record Against the AFC North

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(02-01-2024, 07:24 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I'll pose the question....

What's better?
1) Winning the division every year by beating most of the conference but getting beat by the likes of the Chiefs and Bills every time (specifically in the playoffs)? or...
2) Being one of the very few teams equipped to challenge and realistically beat these guys who are repeatedly getting late into the postseason, even if it means maybe not always winning the divison?

The problem with that question is #2 only works when the rest of the division stinks. In '21 we won the division with 10 wins, the same number the Steelers had to be 3rd in the division in '23. 

With Lamar staying healthy, the Browns finally seeming to getting better, and the Steelers always being a competitive thorn in our side, we need to win 13+ games to reliably win our division. That's hard to do if you have a bad record in your division.

In the last 15 years, only 2 of the 30 teams that made the Super Bowl weren't division champs. It's hard to overstate how important winning the division is.

[*ochocincos*]

(02-01-2024, 07:42 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: The problem with that question is #2 only works when the rest of the division stinks. In '21 we won the division with 10 wins, the same number the Steelers had to be 3rd in the division in '23. 

With Lamar staying healthy, the Browns finally seeming to getting better, and the Steelers always being a competitive thorn in our side, we need to win 13+ games to reliably win our division. That's hard to do if you have a bad record in your division.

In the last 15 years, only 2 of the 30 teams that made the Super Bowl weren't division champs. It's hard to overstate how important winning the division is.

Let's also not jump to conclusions because there was just 1 season with all teams having 9+ wins.
That's extremely, extremely rare.

More than likely, two of the teams in the division will come back down to Earth and have a losing record again.

[SunsetBengal]

(01-31-2024, 08:50 PM)ochocincos Wrote:
Bengals gonna need to change up some of their scheme if they're gonna primarily focus on beating the heavy-run teams in the AFC North.
But they changed their approach to beating the likes BUF and KC.
And if the playoffs were any indication, the AFC North run-heavy teams didn't really do that well after all.

I prefer being able to beat the Chiefs and Bills, as long as the Bengals can find their way back into the postseason.
Heck, they almost made it with Burrow being either out or largely hobbled for all but 5 games of the season.

There's nothing wrong with running a diverse offense that is capable of different looks to adapt to any given opponent.  It's all about matchups, and how to exploit them in the NFL.  Certainly there is room on the roster for some ground and pound, passes to the edges personnel that can also play in the Shotgun with 3 WR formation when the conditions are conducive.

[*ochocincos*]

(02-01-2024, 07:50 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: There's nothing wrong with running a diverse offense that is capable of different looks to adapt to any given opponent.  It's all about matchups, and how to exploit them in the NFL.  Certainly there is room on the roster for some ground and pound, passes to the edges personnel that can also play in the Shotgun with 3 WR formation when the conditions are conducive.

There isn't, but is this staff capable of running an adaptable offense week-to-week?
I've yet to really see that in the past 5 seasons with Taylor at the helm.
Year-to-year maybe they've adapted, but not week-to-week.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(02-01-2024, 07:48 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Let's also not jump to conclusions because there was just 1 season with all teams having 9+ wins.
That's extremely, extremely rare.

More than likely, two of the teams in the division will come back down to Earth and have a losing record again.

Doesn't change the fact that when Lamar starts at least 13 games in a season, the Ravens...

Won 15 games and swept us.
Won 11 games and swept us.
Won 13 games and swept us.

If you can't beat the Ravens, and you struggle against the rest of the division (even if they come back down to Earth), you're going to have to just hope Lamar gets hurt if you want to win the division. That's not a plan, that's literally just a hope.

[SunsetBengal]

(02-01-2024, 07:54 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Doesn't change the fact that when Lamar starts at least 13 games in a season, the Ravens...

Won 15 games and swept us.
Won 11 games and swept us.
Won 13 games and swept us.

If you can't beat the Ravens, and you struggle against the rest of the division (even if they come back down to Earth), you're going to have to just hope Lamar gets hurt if you want to win the division. That's not a plan, that's literally just a hope.

With win totals like that, seems like they have the league's number, not just the Bengals. But I just want to say that in the first meeting this season, a healthy Joe Burrow leads the Bengals to victory.  Now, they do need to learn to match the physical style of play, because the losses to Pittsburgh and Cleveland were just that, getting beat physically on both sides of the LOS.

[*ochocincos*]

(02-01-2024, 07:54 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Doesn't change the fact that when Lamar starts at least 13 games in a season, the Ravens...

Won 15 games and swept us.
Won 11 games and swept us.
Won 13 games and swept us.

If you can't beat the Ravens, and you struggle against the rest of the division (even if they come back down to Earth), you're going to have to just hope Lamar gets hurt if you want to win the division. That's not a plan, that's literally just a hope.

I totally get your point, but the Ravens just got whooped by the Chiefs too.
And they didn't have to play the Chiefs nor the Bills in the regular season.
Had they, it's possible/likely that they would have lost either or both of those games and those had a worse record.
They benefited from a weaker schedule.
But guess what? They get to play them next year, so we'll see if they can morph enough to beat them.

The goal is not to win the division. The goal now is to win a Super Bowl.
Doesn't matter if you are a division winner or wildcard.
If you continually beat the Ravens, Browns, and Steelers but get trounced before or in the AFCCG, that's also a failure (arguably worse than what the Bengals have gone through the past few years).

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(02-01-2024, 08:26 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I totally get your point, but the Ravens just got whooped by the Chiefs too.
And they didn't have to play the Chiefs nor the Bills in the regular season.
Had they, it's possible/likely that they would have lost either or both of those games and those had a worse record.
They benefited from a weaker schedule.
But guess what? They get to play them next year, so we'll see if they can morph enough to beat them.

The goal is not to win the division. The goal now is to win a Super Bowl.
Doesn't matter if you are a division winner or wildcard.
If you continually beat the Ravens, Browns, and Steelers but get trounced before or in the AFCCG, that's also a failure (arguably worse than what the Bengals have gone through the past few years).

The Ravens only played 3 teams that finished with a losing record, same as us. It's not like they had some kind of cakewalk. We played the Chiefs and Bills, they played the Lions and Dolphins. Honestly we probably got a better duo of games for our team to matchup with. Lions would have mauled us on the lines, and our secondary gave up enough giant plays without having to go up against Tyreek and Waddle.


Again, 28 of the last 30 teams to reach the Super Bowl have won their division. It DOES matter if you are a division winner.

[Soonerpeace]

(02-01-2024, 07:48 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Let's also not jump to conclusions because there was just 1 season with all teams having 9+ wins.
That's extremely, extremely rare.

More than likely, two of the teams in the division will come back down to Earth and have a losing record again.

In ‘21 & ‘22 we were 7-5 in the division. We won it 12-4 in ‘22 easily. We were 3-3 in the division. It’s a tough division. The Browns are just built differently and are the poster child for that being a bad matchup for us. They just are. Baltimore was desperate and really went all in this year. They’ve got a lot of free agents not a ton of key players but replacing them with as good unlikely. I think their depth next year will be dicey. Pitt is desperate this coming season. Arthur Smith just hired can help their rushing game. I don’t think there’s any doubt that fixing our run defense isn’t a concern. Looking back I think we go 12-5 with a fully healthy Joe. That’s 1/2 game more than our 11 w/ Vegas?

[Nicomo Cosca]

(02-01-2024, 05:53 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: Just stating facts, they have been very good on defense for a while, going though multiple DCs,, they had Wink for few years did a solid  job, now if you posted Harbaugh retires that would be huge...

No one is saying their defense will totally fall off a cliff and be terrible. But there’s a big difference between “solid” and historically great. Getting Macdonald out of not only the division, but the conference is absolutely a big deal.

And a lot of Ravens fans are ready to run Harbaugh out of town from what I’ve been seeing. He’s been underperforming in the playoffs for years now. Macdonald’s defense just held the Chiefs to only 17 points (0 in the 2nd half) and they still shit the bed and lost.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(02-01-2024, 10:10 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: No one is saying their defense will totally fall off a cliff and be terrible. But there’s a big difference between “solid” and historically great. Getting Macdonald out of not only the division, but the conference is absolutely a big deal.

And a lot of Ravens fans are ready to run Harbaugh out of town from what I’ve been seeing. He’s been underperforming in the playoffs for years now. Macdonald’s defense just held the  Chiefs to only 17 points (0 in the 2nd half) and they still shit the bed and lost.

Macdonald will certainly be a loss for them, but aside from '22 when they were starting like their 7th CB or some nonsense like that, before that they had the 2nd scoring defense, 3rd scoring defense, and 2nd scoring defense. They've had a top-3 scoring defense in 5 of the last 6 years. It's disgusting how consistent they've been able to crank out top defenses.

I'm curious to see if Patrick Queen reverts to being crap without Macdonald, or if his improvement was Roquan Smith letting him not have to be The Guy at LB for them.

I will laugh when the Ravens fans get what they want and run Harbaugh out. Only to realize that it's Lamar that chokes in the playoffs. Harbaugh was 9-4 including a SB win in his first 5 years with Joe Flacco.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(02-01-2024, 11:57 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Macdonald will certainly be a loss for them, but aside from '22 when they were starting like their 7th CB or some nonsense like that, before that they had the 2nd scoring defense, 3rd scoring defense, and 2nd scoring defense. They've had a top-3 scoring defense in 5 of the last 6 years. It's disgusting how consistent they've been able to crank out top defenses.

I'm curious to see if Patrick Queen reverts to being crap without Macdonald, or if his improvement was Roquan Smith letting him not have to be The Guy at LB for them.

I will laugh when the Ravens fans get what they want and run Harbaugh out. Only to realize that it's Lamar that chokes in the playoffs. Harbaugh was 9-4 including a SB win in his first 5 years with Joe Flacco.

It’s not even a guarantee Queen will be back. They have a lot of work to do to try and re-sign a number of key UFA’s this offseason. They’re definitely going to lose some guys.

As far as Harbaugh goes you can’t live off your past forever. It’s a what have you done for me lately type of league, and just like Tomlin, he’s not been getting it done in the postseason for quite a while now. I do agree part of that is Lamar being a choker. But the HC is often the fall guy when you don’t meat expectations.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(02-02-2024, 01:13 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: It’s not even a guarantee Queen will be back. They have a lot of work to do to try and re-sign a number of key UFA’s this offseason. They’re definitely going to lose some guys.

As far as Harbaugh goes you can’t live off your past forever. It’s a what have you done for me lately type of league, and just like Tomlin, he’s not been getting it done in the postseason for quite a while now. I do agree part of that is Lamar being a choker. But the HC is often the fall guy when you don’t meat expectations.

Tomlin I feel like is on a whole different level. Dude turned into Marvin Lewis and I love it. Not bad enough to fire, not good enough to actually do something. Love seeing the Steelers stuck in neutral.

The Ravens have won at least 1 playoff game in 50% of Harbaugh's years as HC (8/16). The Steelers have won at least 1 playoff game in 4 out of Tomlin's 17 years with 0 in their last 7 years.

The Ravens did win a playoff game this year, and another in 2020. It's just that their defense can only carry them so far when Lamar chokes come playoff time. We saw it in the KC game. They absolutely shut the Chiefs down in entirety in the second half (0 points, 98 yards) and only allowed 17 points all game despite the offense turning the ball over 3 times. If you can't score some points though, you can't win.

Agreed that HC will be the fall guy if it keeps up because they're locked in with Lamar as their QB for at least 3 more years ($113m dead in '24, $80m dead in '25 and $58m dead in '26). So if your QB can't go, your HC will end up being the one who goes. 

Can't wait for it because our division will get a lot easier. It's going to be up there in enjoyment with seeing the Patriots go to absolute shit. Lol

[*bengalfan74*]

(02-01-2024, 07:24 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I'll pose the question....

What's better?
1) Winning the division every year by beating most of the conference but getting beat by the likes of the Chiefs and Bills every time (specifically in the playoffs)? or...
2) Being one of the very few teams equipped to challenge and realistically beat these guys who are repeatedly getting late into the postseason, even if it means maybe not always winning the divison?

I totally get what you're saying and don't totally disagree, but. If we have 4 or more loses every season because we can't beat the teams in our own division that's digging a big hole!!

None of our division foes are offensive juggernauts. They beat us with defense/pass rush. How do you defeat the pass rush?? The running game/screens/quick slants. How do you defeat Tampa Two - the running game.

First off we need a better RB room, duh. But also we need an upgrade in Oline and, AND, IMHO a different scheme. In other words we have to become less shotgun all the time and empty sets. And mix up a good bit more under center/play action. 

Not only for the division but just to be a more well rounded team for playing anybody. 

[*bengalfan74*]

(02-02-2024, 01:35 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Tomlin I feel like is on a whole different level. Dude turned into Marvin Lewis and I love it. Not bad enough to fire, not good enough to actually do something. Love seeing the Steelers stuck in neutral.

The Ravens have won at least 1 playoff game in 50% of Harbaugh's years as HC (8/16). The Steelers have won at least 1 playoff game in 4 out of Tomlin's 17 years with 0 in their last 7 years.

The Ravens did win a playoff game this year, and another in 2020. It's just that their defense can only carry them so far when Lamar chokes come playoff time. We saw it in the KC game. They absolutely shut the Chiefs down in entirety in the second half (0 points, 98 yards) and only allowed 17 points all game despite the offense turning the ball over 3 times. If you can't score some points though, you can't win.

Agreed that HC will be the fall guy if it keeps up because they're locked in with Lamar as their QB for at least 3 more years ($113m dead in '24, $80m dead in '25 and $58m dead in '26). So if your QB can't go, your HC will end up being the one who goes. 

Can't wait for it because our division will get a lot easier. It's going to be up there in enjoyment with seeing the Patriots go to absolute shit. Lol

YEP

The Steelers haven't really done anything since 2016. "Never had a losing record". blah, blah Haven't won crap either better mention that as well.

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(02-02-2024, 08:22 AM)bengalfan74 Wrote: YEP

The Steelers haven't really done anything since 2016. "Never had a losing record". blah, blah Haven't won crap either better mention that as well.

I don't find it to be a coincidence that their slide started when the league cracked down on that spearing shit they coached for years.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(02-02-2024, 10:56 AM)WychesWarrior Wrote: I don't find it to be a coincidence that their slide started when the league cracked down on that spearing shit they coached for years.

They’ve also been in QB purgatory for a number of years now. Ben got old, and everyone since has sucked.

[*ochocincos*]

(02-01-2024, 09:42 PM)Soonerpeace Wrote: In ‘21 & ‘22 we were 7-5 in the division. We won it 12-4 in ‘22 easily. We were 3-3 in the division. It’s a tough division. The Browns are just built differently and are the poster child for that being a bad matchup for us. They just are. Baltimore was desperate and really went all in this year. They’ve got a lot of free agents not a ton of key players but replacing them with as good unlikely. I think their depth next year will be dicey. Pitt is desperate this coming season. Arthur Smith just hired can help their rushing game. I don’t think there’s any doubt that fixing our run defense isn’t a concern. Looking back I think we go 12-5 with a fully healthy Joe. That’s 1/2 game more than our 11 w/ Vegas?

Some people seem to think there needs to be a massive overhaul to the OL/DL because of going 1-5 in the division (despite winning 8 other games).

For defense, it was basically the same DL and LBs in 2023 as it was in 2021 and 2022.
Hendrickson, Hubbard, Reader, Hill, Pratt, and Wilson.
2021 - 5th in rush yards allowed, 13th in YPC allowed
2022 - 7th in rush yards allowed, 9th in YPC allowed
2023 they were much worse, but it was basically the same guys.
If there's any spot that really changed in 2023, it was the new, young safeties though. Bell had a pretty big impact on the run game. Hill and Battle need to grow, especially against the run, but I don't think we need to push the panic button after just one bad year with brand new safeties. Heck, with Burrow down, the Bengals weren't likely going to the AFCCG/SB anyway even with a good defense.

OL has continued to be a problem though the past 3 years, despite who has been added.
I'm no expert, but from what I've seen, it's due to the players' skill set and scheme.
But we need to be realistic and understand that whether we like it or not, 4 of the 5 spots are locks for 2024.
Is a new RT going to magically make this OL a Top 10 unit against the run and/or pass protection?
I don't think so, as we still have the same coaching minus Callahan.
Maybe Pitcher though will bring some new creativity to get this limited OL more effective while masking their weaknesses.

[*ochocincos*]

(02-02-2024, 08:20 AM)bengalfan74 Wrote: I totally get what you're saying and don't totally disagree, but. If we have 4 or more loses every season because we can't beat the teams in our own division that's digging a big hole!!

None of our division foes are offensive juggernauts. They beat us with defense/pass rush. How do you defeat the pass rush?? The running game/screens/quick slants. How do you defeat Tampa Two - the running game.

First off we need a better RB room, duh. But also we need an upgrade in Oline and, AND, IMHO a different scheme. In other words we have to become less shotgun all the time and empty sets. And mix up a good bit more under center/play action. 

Not only for the division but just to be a more well rounded team for playing anybody. 

The RB room needs more speed.
They can get that in the draft.
They had the opportunity last season to move on from Mixon, but they chose to keep him at a cheaper rate, so he's gonna be the RB1.
He did well though, having the 8th most rushing yards and 12th most yards from scrimmage in the entire league.

We aren't going to see an overhaul on the OL.
We'll see 1 new starter at most (RT) and probably 1-2 depth guys.

We'll see what Pitcher ends up changing, but if Taylor really has as much influence on the playcalling as we think, it's going to be largely the same.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(02-02-2024, 11:12 AM)ochocincos Wrote: The RB room needs more speed.
They can get that in the draft.
They had the opportunity last season to move on from Mixon, but they chose to keep him at a cheaper rate, so he's gonna be the RB1.
He did well though, having the 8th most rushing yards and 12th most yards from scrimmage in the entire league.

We aren't going to see an overhaul on the OL.
We'll see 1 new starter at most (RT) and probably 1-2 depth guys.

We'll see what Pitcher ends up changing, but if Taylor really has as much influence on the playcalling as we think, it's going to be largely the same.

That was mostly due to volume though, no? He had literally no competition for carries while Chase Brown was out. And even when Brown played he barely got the ball.