FA Signing Game

[casear2727]

(02-07-2024, 10:35 PM)007BengalsFan Wrote: It's a ridiculous structure even if you had a dramatic increase in the cap in the next few years.   You have to consider Joe Burrow's cap goes from 29.7 this year to 48.2 in 2026 and 52.2 by 2027 so that will take over 20 million additional of the expanded cap.  Ja'marr Chase is currently making 9.8 million this year.  If Chase demands 30 million a year that's another increase of ~20 million off the cap space.  That is to say nothing of all the other players on the team with increasing cap hits.  Its just not wise to have that much cap space devoted to Burrow, Chase and Higgins.   

Higgins 32.75m + Chase 30m + Burrow 52.25 = 115 million.  Even if the cap did increase dramatically to 300m that is still 38.3% of the cap space being taken by just 3 players

It's a structure that has been done before to win the Super Bowl.  

Burrow + Higgins + Chase:
2025 = 30.96%
2026 = 34.15%
2027 = 35.35%

Colts with Manning + Harrison + Wayne:
2006 = 21%
2007 = 25%
2008 = 35%

What the Rams did to win a Super Bowl was ridiculous, but they are totally ok with the way it worked out for them. 

[Frank Booth]

(02-07-2024, 11:50 PM)casear2727 Wrote: It's a structure that has been done before to win the Super Bowl.  

Burrow + Higgins + Chase:
2025 = 30.96%
2026 = 34.15%
2027 = 35.35%

Colts with Manning + Harrison + Wayne:
2006 = 21%
2007 = 25%
2008 = 35%

What the Rams did to win a Super Bowl was ridiculous, but they are totally ok with the way it worked out for them. 

Manning Wayne Harrison is a huge outlier and cincy shouldnt copy it

[casear2727]

(02-07-2024, 11:52 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: Manning Wayne Harrison is a huge outlier and cincy shouldnt copy it

Outlier?  What other team went big on a Top 3 QB and a great, very young, WR duo in their prime? 

I would think most believe that Burrow, Chase and Tee will only improve over the next 3-4 seasons.  This opportunity doesn't come often.

I'm not fully all in on the idea but these comments that it is ridiculous or a huge outlier that cannot be duplicated are simply way off base.

[Frank Booth]

(02-07-2024, 11:57 PM)casear2727 Wrote: Outlier?  What other team went big on a Top 3 QB and a great, very young, WR duo in their prime? 

I would think most believe that Burrow, Chase and Tee will only improve over the next 3-4 seasons.  This opportunity doesn't come often.

I'm not fully all in on the idea but these comments that it is ridiculous or a huge outlier that cannot be duplicated are simply way off base.

Marvin Harrison was old when they won the super bowl. They’re the only team I can think of that won the Super Bowl with that much money assigned to those 3 spots. It doesn’t work normally. It shouldn’t be done. Tag Higgins, but you gotta replace him

[casear2727]

(02-08-2024, 12:08 AM)Frank Booth Wrote: Marvin Harrison was old when they won the super bowl. They’re the only team I can think of that won the Super Bowl with that much money assigned to those 3 spots. It doesn’t work normally. It shouldn’t be done. Tag Higgins, but you gotta replace him

So you are saying that we dont have a chance with a younger more athletic Chase along with Higgins?  

I want a Super Bowl any way they can get it.  If they are going to go all in this year, they can only do it by extending Tee and lowering his cap hit.  Not they we ever have or ever would go all in.

[Nicomo Cosca]

The Greatest Show on Turf had Kurt Warner, Torry Holt, Issac Bruce, and Marshall Faulk. No idea what their contracts were like back then though.

[casear2727]

(02-08-2024, 01:06 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: The Greatest Show on Turf had Kurt Warner, Torry Holt, Issac Bruce, and Marshall Faulk. No idea what their contracts were like back then though.

Whatever they were, you can bet that they were ridiculous, and an outlier, and we should never consider copying that formula........... 

[Frank Booth]

(02-08-2024, 01:03 AM)casear2727 Wrote: So you are saying that we dont have a chance with a younger more athletic Chase along with Higgins?  

I want a Super Bowl any way they can get it.  If they are going to go all in this year, they can only do it by extending Tee and lowering his cap hit.  Not they we ever have or ever would go all in.

You dont chase unicorns. Thats the only team that had 3 huge contracts to QB and 2 wide receivers to win the title. You dont look at the anomoly and strive for it

(02-08-2024, 01:06 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: The Greatest Show on Turf had Kurt Warner, Torry Holt, Issac Bruce, and Marshall Faulk. No idea what their contracts were like back then though.

Holt was on a rookie contract. Warner was getting paid peanuts

[*bfine32*]

(02-08-2024, 01:53 AM)Frank Booth Wrote: You dont chase unicorns. Thats the only team that had 3 huge contracts to QB and 2 wide receivers to win the title. You dont look at the anomoly and strive for it


Holt was on a rookie contract. Warner was getting paid peanuts

Well to be fair, over the last 20 years every team that doesn't have Tom Brady or Pat Mahomes on it is a "unicorn". 

Over the last few years, there's only been 1-team that can compete with the Mahome's "non-unicorn" and it's the team with the 2 great WRs and QB

[Frank Booth]

(02-08-2024, 02:01 AM)bfine32 Wrote: Well to be fair, over the last 20 years every team that doesn't have Tom Brady or Pat Mahomes on it is a "unicorn". 

Over the last few years, there's only been 1-team that can compete with the Mahome's "non-unicorn" and it's the team with the 2 great WRs and QB

I can nitpick this all I want, but I’m gonna get some sleep

But you can have 2 out of the 3 with big contracts. No problem with that. The problem comes once you have all 3 on huge deals. Only the 06 colts ever pulled it off

[*ochocincos*]

(02-07-2024, 08:57 PM)bfine32 Wrote: We also must consider "Cap casualties" such as Mixon 

I intentionally did not consider him because 1) that's then yet another spot to have to try to fill, and 2) he would have been let go last year and they brought him back already, so I think he's here through this season.

[*ochocincos*]

(02-08-2024, 02:28 AM)Frank Booth Wrote: I can nitpick this all I want, but I’m gonna get some sleep

But you can have 2 out of the 3 with big contracts. No problem with that. The problem comes once you have all 3 on huge deals. Only the 06 colts ever pulled it off

Or maybe a different way to say it is if you have a QB and two pass catchers with big contracts, it's really impacting the ability to put money toward other positions, specifically on the defensive side.
At some point, you have to start getting really good at getting budget value FAs and/or getting pretty good contributions from draft picks on their rookie deals to help balance out for the few big contracts.

[depthchart]

(02-07-2024, 11:57 PM)casear2727 Wrote: Outlier?  What other team went big on a Top 3 QB and a great, very young, WR duo in their prime? 

I would think most believe that Burrow, Chase and Tee will only improve over the next 3-4 seasons.  This opportunity doesn't come often.
tension
I'm not fully all in on the idea but these comments that it is ridiculous or a huge outlier that cannot be duplicated are simply way off base.

The Bengals seem to like 3 year deals and that shorter time frame may allow for the 3 players to stay together while

not having the financial strain of that 4th year. It is only 2 years longer than a Tag and force to play 1 year.

Tag TEE and agree to a 3 year deal seems like something the Bengals may actually do.

[casear2727]

(02-08-2024, 12:02 PM)depthchart Wrote: The Bengals seem to like 3 year deals and that shorter time frame may allow for the 3 players to stay together while

not having the financial strain of that 4th year. It is only 2 years longer than a Tag and force to play 1 year.

Tag TEE and agree to a 3 year deal seems like something the Bengals may actually do.

4 year deals allow bigger contracts to spread the money.  All of the big deals are 4 years; DJ, Trey, OBJr and Cappa all have/had 4 year deals.  

BJ hill has the highest 3 year deal, the rest are all under his 10M per.  Except Hilton, his is a 4 year deal.

[depthchart]

(02-08-2024, 12:43 PM)casear2727 Wrote: 4 year deals allow bigger contracts to spread the money.  All of the big deals are 4 years; DJ, Trey, OBJr and Cappa all have/had 4 year deals.  

BJ hill has the highest 3 year deal, the rest are all under his 10M per.  Except Hilton, his is a 4 year deal.

I had noticed the Ted Karras, La'el Collins and Chidobe Awuzie 3 year deals but I can see what you say about the

bigger deals being 4 years. I wonder what the Tag being involved & TEE's injured/poor season may do to impact negotiations.

I am curious to see how things play out with TEE.

[007BengalsFan]

(02-07-2024, 11:50 PM)casear2727 Wrote: It's a structure that has been done before to win the Super Bowl.  

Burrow + Higgins + Chase:
2025 = 30.96%
2026 = 34.15%
2027 = 35.35%

Colts with Manning + Harrison + Wayne:
2006 = 21%
2007 = 25%
2008 = 35%

What the Rams did to win a Super Bowl was ridiculous, but they are totally ok with the way it worked out for them. 

Im not sure how you are coming up with those percentages for the Bengals but the math seems a little off.  If Tee's cap hit is 20.25m in 2025 and Burrow's cap hit is 46.25m while Chase's 5th year option is estimated to cost 21.67m, that is 88.17m for all 3 of them in 2025.  If the salary cap went up to 282 million in 2025, 88.17million would be 31.3% of the 282 million dollar cap. 

If the cap is 300 million by 2027 and you have Burrow at 52.25m, Tee at 32.75m and Chase at 30m that would be 115 million total for all three which would = 38.3% of the 300 million dollar cap.

Even if the cap went to 300 million by 2026 and you have Burrow at 48.25m, Tee at 32.75m and Chase at 30m that would be 111 million for all three which would = 37% of the 300 million dollar cap

These numbers are not anywhere close to Manning + Harrison + Wayne when you look at the three year comparison.  The numbers arent actually close if we used your original numbers.  Using your numbers we would still be looking at close to a 10% difference in 2025 and 2026.  A 10% difference on a 280-300 million dollar cap for 2 years would be a difference of around 58-60 million dollars total.  What kind of other talent could you get for a 58-60 million savings?  Again, this isnt the total cost to sign Tee which would be even higher, this is just the difference in what the Colts paid vs how much larger the Bengals would be paying.  An extra 10% above what the Colts paid is a big difference.

[casear2727]

(02-08-2024, 04:16 PM)007BengalsFan Wrote: Im not sure how you are coming up with those percentages for the Bengals but the math seems a little off.  If Tee's cap hit is 20.25m in 2025 and Burrow's cap hit is 46.25m while Chase's 5th year option is estimated to cost 21.67m, that is 88.17m for all 3 of them in 2025.  If the salary cap went up to 282 million in 2025, 88.17million would be 31.3% of the 282 million dollar cap. 

If the cap is 300 million by 2027 and you have Burrow at 52.25m, Tee at 32.75m and Chase at 30m that would be 115 million total for all three which would = 38.3% of the 300 million dollar cap.

Even if the cap went to 300 million by 2026 and you have Burrow at 48.25m, Tee at 32.75m and Chase at 30m that would be 111 million for all three which would = 37% of the 300 million dollar cap

These numbers are not anywhere close to Manning + Harrison + Wayne when you look at the three year comparison.  The numbers arent actually close if we used your original numbers.  Using your numbers we would still be looking at close to a 10% difference in 2025 and 2026.  A 10% difference on a 280-300 million dollar cap for 2 years would be a difference of around 58-60 million dollars total.  What kind of other talent could you get for a 58-60 million savings?  Again, this isnt the total cost to sign Tee which would be even higher, this is just the difference in what the Colts paid vs how much larger the Bengals would be paying.  An extra 10% above what the Colts paid is a big difference.

Perrotta is one of the best in cap calculations.  

Here are Ja'Marr and Tee's combined cap hits, and the percentage of the overall (unadjusted) team cap of their combined cap hits in the overlapping years (2024-2027), assuming Chase also signs an extension.

Note the combined Cap % of the 2006-2009 Colts with Harrison & Wayne. pic.twitter.com/rgrGnCWCen

— Andre Perrotta (@andreperrotta13) February 6, 2024

 

Using 2025 as starting point because this is when I expect a Chase extension.

Burrow + Higgins + Chase:
2025 = 30.96%
2026 = 34.15%
2027 = 35.35%

Colts with Manning + Harrison + Wayne:
2006 = 21%
2007 = 25%
2008 = 35%

— Andre Perrotta (@andreperrotta13) February 6, 2024

 

[007BengalsFan]

(02-08-2024, 04:38 PM)casear2727 Wrote: Perrotta is one of the best in cap calculations.  

Here are Ja'Marr and Tee's combined cap hits, and the percentage of the overall (unadjusted) team cap of their combined cap hits in the overlapping years (2024-2027), assuming Chase also signs an extension.

Note the combined Cap % of the 2006-2009 Colts with Harrison & Wayne. pic.twitter.com/rgrGnCWCen

— Andre Perrotta (@andreperrotta13) February 6, 2024

 

Using 2025 as starting point because this is when I expect a Chase extension.

Burrow + Higgins + Chase:
2025 = 30.96%
2026 = 34.15%
2027 = 35.35%

Colts with Manning + Harrison + Wayne:
2006 = 21%
2007 = 25%
2008 = 35%

— Andre Perrotta (@andreperrotta13) February 6, 2024

 

As I already pointed out in my previous post, Burrow + Higgins + Chase in 2025 and 2026 is not even close to Manning + Harrison + Wayne that Perrotta is trying to compare cap numbers to.  Manning + Harrison + Wayne were taking up 20-25% the first two years that are being compared.   Burrow + Higgins + Chase would be taking about 31-34%   That is a huge difference.  It also ignores the fact Perrotta would push Chase's cap hit to 39.5 million in 2028 and 2029 at a time when Burrow's cap hit would be  53.5 million and 68.5 million.   All this is assuming the salary cap takes a big jump in the next few year and you actually get 4 good years out of Tee hoping his hamstring can hold up.  It's just a bad way to manage the cap

[casear2727]

(02-08-2024, 08:25 PM)007BengalsFan Wrote: As I already pointed out in my previous post, Burrow + Higgins + Chase in 2025 and 2026 is not even close to Manning + Harrison + Wayne that Perrotta is trying to compare cap numbers to.  Manning + Harrison + Wayne were taking up 20-25% the first two years that are being compared.   Burrow + Higgins + Chase would be taking about 31-34%   That is a huge difference.  It also ignores the fact Perrotta would push Chase's cap hit to 39.5 million in 2028 and 2029 at a time when Burrow's cap hit would be  53.5 million and 68.5 million.   All this is assuming the salary cap takes a big jump in the next few year and you actually get 4 good years out of Tee hoping his hamstring can hold up.  It's just a bad way to manage the cap

Lol, it was one guy’s suggestion backed up with actual numbers and a comparable scenario. Much more realistic than your forced trade of Tee with next year’s draft picks.

The Bengals will likely be as conservative as possible, so it doesn’t really matter.

[JoeyB2023]

(02-07-2024, 08:10 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Here's my stab at it just off the cuff:

Starters:
Tag Higgins ($20.7 mill)
Sign RT Onwenu ($14 mill)
Sign TE Fant ($9 mill)
Re-sign Reader ($10 mill, probably even too generous on that?)
Re-sign LS Adomitis ($1.0-$1.5 mill, which seems to be the typical price for a solid LS)

DJ Turner moves into starting Outside CB, Charlie Jones moves into starting Slot WR.

All starting positions now covered.

Backups:
Re-sign Trenton Irwin
Re-sign two of ADG/Bailey/Bachie
Re-sign Sample
Re-sign Ford
Re-sign Browning

This would fit just around the $5 mill remaining going into the draft and leave about 5-7 backup positions for the draft to fill.

I saw nothing from Charlie jones or turner that said they are ready at all for either one of those roles.
Bring back Awuzie
Bring back boyd.
Neither breaks the bank. Let tee walk. Replace him in the second. The bengals are almost automatic doing that. This is easy imo let’s not over think it.