How it looks right now

[Jpoore]

Bengals are in dire straits right now…. If they don’t resign dj reader which is looking increasing unlikely if they let him get on that plane to Detroit, we have really no starting level DT options. Bj hill is decent, but who outside of him? gotta resign dj reader, and if they don’t I believe they resign Jonah and double dip at DT in draft. We can’t afford to lose reader though. That deal needs to happen.

Joe goodberry thoughts below

How in reading the DJ Reader situation:

The Bengals aren't offering as good of a contract as the Detroit Lions are.

Reader is heading to Detroit for a visit because they want to see how his recovery looks.

If everything looks right and on track, DJ Reader will accept the contract and be a Detroit Lion.

The Bengals have a chance to match/exceed that offer before Thursday, but I get the feeling that they have already decided and given their final offer and it is not good enough.

We move onto other defensive tackles now.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

Reader just can't stay healthy. 3 IRs in 4 years with the Bengals. Doesn't matter how good you are if you are never on the field.

24.43%
52.49%
38.32%
48.77%

That's Reader's snap count % his 4 years as a Bengal.

Remember that means more than half the time we have a backup NT on the field, which has been Tupou most of that time. So 40% of the time Reader + 60% of the time backups... or 70% of the time someone slightly worse than Reader + 30% of the time backups. The latter might be better overall (and much less money) despite Reader being the better player.

[jj22]

Double dipping in the draft is an option but is a fail. The lines in the AFCN is going to eat any rookie alive let alone 2.

Bengals had 1 priority this free agency (DT). If not 2 (RT). And failed at both. A resounding fail, and damning given the Ravens and Steelers have already punched their ticket to the 2024 playoffs.

[Essex Johnson]

(03-13-2024, 11:17 AM)Jpoore Wrote: Bengals are in dire straits right now…. If they don’t resign dj reader which is looking increasing unlikely if they let him get on that plane to Detroit, we have really no starting level DT options. Bj hill is decent, but who outside of him? gotta resign dj reader, and if they don’t I believe they resign Jonah and double dip at DT in draft. We can’t afford to lose reader though. That deal needs to happen.

Joe goodberry thoughts below

How in reading the DJ Reader situation:

The Bengals aren't offering as good of a contract as the Detroit Lions are.

Reader is heading to Detroit for a visit because they want to see how his recovery looks.

If everything looks right and on track, DJ Reader will accept the contract and be a Detroit Lion.

The Bengals have a chance to match/exceed that offer before Thursday, but I get the feeling that they have already decided and given their final offer and it is not good enough.

We move onto other defensive tackles now.

Remember how Bengals were bad on giving those 3rd contracts and did not work out well.. Atkins comes to mind, signed a 4 year deal in 2018 had one good year on that contract, pretty much done in 2020... Reader had a major injury and has missed a good amount of games 2020 and 2022.. not sure they want to give him a 3rd contract

[Frank Booth]

the run defense will be the achillies heel of this team. Ravens, Browns, and Steelers are all run first. Bengals have nothing in the middle

[Bengalbug]

(03-13-2024, 12:19 PM)jj22 Wrote: Double dipping in the draft is an option but is a fail. The lines in the AFCN is going to eat any rookie alive let alone 2.

Bengals had 1 priority this free agency (DT). If not 2 (RT). And failed at both. A resounding fail, and damning given the Ravens and Steelers have already punched their ticket to the 2024 playoffs.

Lots of assumptions.
1) assuming the bengals are done in free agency. You can, im not.
2) assuming Steelers make the playoffs
3) assuming ravens make the playoffs

The playoffs usually have 3-4 new participants, in each conference, each year. Last year was the first full season Lamar played, since his rookie year.

This post isn’t going to age well. We will continue to fill holes this week, and I doubt both teams you mentioned will be in the playoffs. I can see one, but not both.

[Jpoore]

(03-13-2024, 12:14 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Reader just can't stay healthy. 3 IRs in 4 years with the Bengals. Doesn't matter how good you are if you are never on the field.

24.43%
52.49%
38.32%
48.77%

That's Reader's snap count % his 4 years as a Bengal.

Remember that means more than half the time we have a backup NT on the field, which has been Tupou most of that time. So 40% of the time Reader + 60% of the time backups... or 70% of the time someone slightly worse than Reader + 30% of the time backups. The latter might be better overall (and much less money) despite Reader being the better player.

You’re taking snap counts without account for the fact NT in general play 50ish% of snaps. They’re off the field a lot. Problem is we don’t have a good 1st or 2nd pass rushing DT.

(03-13-2024, 12:19 PM)jj22 Wrote: Double dipping in the draft is an option but is a fail. The lines in the AFCN is going to eat any rookie alive let alone 2.

Bengals had 1 priority this free agency (DT). If not 2 (RT). And failed at both. A resounding fail, and damning given the Ravens and Steelers have already punched their ticket to the 2024 playoffs.

Newton has elite elite agility. He becomes what we’ve been missing since larrry 0 at a minimum As a rookie.the prenetrator. Bengals in recent years have opted to prioritize spots in free agency then focus on other holes in draft. As it stands seems they prioritized te, rb, linebacker depth, and starting safety. So it seems obvious that first 2-3 rounds will be trenches prioritized, mainly DT. I expect Jonah to be resigned. The interior lines in afc north aren’t that great and if you could get Newton and sweat? That gives you a deadly combo as they are both pro ready. Sorry what have the Steelers done? Or ravens for that matter. We’ve had significantly better off-season than either of them

[Jpoore]

(03-13-2024, 12:24 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: Remember how Bengals were bad on giving those 3rd contracts and did not work out well.. Atkins comes to mind, signed a 4 year deal in 2018 had one good year on that contract, pretty much done in 2020... Reader had a major injury and has missed a good amount of games 2020 and 2022.. not sure they want to give him a 3rd contract

Sure but reader is one of those players who even if he falls off should still be pretty good. 2 year 30 million contract sounds right? Maybe less with incentives? What’s the alternative?

[Soonerpeace]

(03-13-2024, 12:14 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Reader just can't stay healthy. 3 IRs in 4 years with the Bengals. Doesn't matter how good you are if you are never on the field.

24.43%
52.49%
38.32%
48.77%

That's Reader's snap count % his 4 years as a Bengal.

Remember that means more than half the time we have a backup NT on the field, which has been Tupou most of that time. So 40% of the time Reader + 60% of the time backups... or 70% of the time someone slightly worse than Reader + 30% of the time backups. The latter might be better overall (and much less money) despite Reader being the better player.

And they have more numbers than all on this board, Goodberry, PFF or anybody. And they make decisions accordingly.

[Lucius Cincinnatus]

(03-13-2024, 12:14 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Reader just can't stay healthy. 3 IRs in 4 years with the Bengals. Doesn't matter how good you are if you are never on the field.

24.43%
52.49%
38.32%
48.77%

That's Reader's snap count % his 4 years as a Bengal.

Remember that means more than half the time we have a backup NT on the field, which has been Tupou most of that time. So 40% of the time Reader + 60% of the time backups... or 70% of the time someone slightly worse than Reader + 30% of the time backups. The latter might be better overall (and much less money) despite Reader being the better player.

Your analysis of the snap count % is off. Just because reader is off the field, doesn't mean a back-up DT is on the field. And the majority of the case, that's actually not the case. Reader is a 2 down DT. He comes out typically during obvious passing downs and we bring in an extra pass rusher, not a backup DT. 

[Lucius Cincinnatus]

(03-13-2024, 12:29 PM)Bengalbug Wrote: Lots of assumptions.
1) assuming the bengals are done in free agency.  You can, im not.
2) assuming Steelers make the playoffs
3) assuming ravens make the playoffs

The playoffs usually have 3-4 new participants, in each conference, each year. Last year was the first full season Lamar played, since his rookie year.  

This post isn’t going to age well.  We will continue to fill holes this week, and I doubt both teams you mentioned will be in the playoffs.  I can see one, but not both.

You're incorrect on Lamar Jackson's health:

2019: Full season (sat out week 17 game since they clinched #1 seed)
2020: Full season (missed one game due to COVID. If you're using that to make your argument, that's really manipulating a totally unique circumstance to try and make a point)
2021: Injured
2022: Injured
2022: Full season (sat out week 18 game since they clinched the #1 seed)

He has played more full seasons than seasons that he got hurt

[Luvnit2]

(03-13-2024, 12:29 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: the run defense will be the achillies heel of this team. Ravens, Browns, and Steelers are all run first. Bengals have nothing in the middle

I would hope you would give the FO some leeway since FA officially starts at 4p.m. today.

Do you think we are done in FA?

We have money, some teams do not. I have faith in Duke and Katie.

I love Reader as a run stopper and leader. I don't love his injury history and lack of a pass rush.

Look around there are still very good run stoppers available in FA and the draft.

[Nepa]

(03-13-2024, 12:32 PM)Jpoore Wrote: *** Sorry what have the Steelers done? Or ravens for that matter. ***

Well, the Steelers had two splash signings to fill big needs: Patrick Queen and Russell Wilson.  And the Ravens made a signing that is going to make their offense, and particularly the goal line offense, ridiculously hard to defend when paired with Lamar: Derrick Henry.

I don't know about overall their off-season (losses versus gains), and the Bengals did weaken the Ravens with the Stone signing. But as far as making a splash in free agency, their signings have been taking up all the oxygen and I'm sure their fan bases are estastic.

[007BengalsFan]

(03-13-2024, 12:45 PM)Lucius Cincinnatus Wrote: Your analysis of the snap count % is off. Just because reader is off the field, doesn't mean a back-up DT is on the field. And the majority of the case, that's actually not the case. Reader is a 2 down DT. He comes out typically during obvious passing downs and we bring in an extra pass rusher, not a backup DT. 

Rotating is part of the defensive line to keep guys fresh.  Hill doesnt play every snap either.  Hill might have been his best when he was rotating with Ogunjobi

[Essex Johnson]

(03-13-2024, 12:34 PM)Jpoore Wrote: Sure but reader is one of those players who even if he falls off should still be pretty good. 2 year 30 million contract sounds right? Maybe less with incentives? What’s the alternative?

i can;t see giving him that type of money especially not knowing if he will start and how he will recover.. Don't waste money on a guess, there are still DTs out there to sign and you then draft.. that is what a draft is for to replace players

[007BengalsFan]

(03-13-2024, 12:56 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: i can;t see giving him that type of money especially not knowing if he will start and how he will recover.. Don't waste money on a guess, there are still DTs out there to sign and you then draft.. that is what a draft is for to replace players

I would rather gamble on Reader being ready than signing a "value" DT like Teair Tart and gambling he can do a good job.  

The defensive line needs more than just one DT this offseason.  They need 2 or 3 quality DT's.  You are not going to pick that up in the draft.

[jj22]

(03-13-2024, 12:24 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: Remember how Bengals were bad on giving those 3rd contracts and did not work out well.. Atkins comes to mind, signed a 4 year deal in 2018  had one good year on that contract, pretty much done in 2020... Reader had a major injury and has missed a good amount of games 2020 and 2022.. not sure they want to give him a 3rd contract

I think we were fine passing on Reader for all of these reasons...... Prior to seeing how the chips fell in FA.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(03-13-2024, 12:32 PM)Jpoore Wrote: You’re taking snap counts without account for the fact NT in general play 50ish% of snaps. They’re off the field a lot. Problem is we don’t have a good 1st or 2nd pass rushing DT.

Not if they're any good, and even then Reader is averaging 41% as a Bengal. IR 3 times in 4 years.

Dexter Lawrence last two years were 63% and 76%.
Jarran Reed at 68% and 68%.
Grady Jarrett tore his ACL last year, but the two years before that were 76% and 74%.
Vita Vea is indeed there at 54% and 48%, but at least brings higher level play.
Harrison Phillips at 74% and 60%.

If Reader could stay healthy and play 60% of the snaps? Absolutely re-sign him. He can't stay healthy, though. You can't give him a pile of money only to have his backup play nearly 2/3rds of the snaps.

[jj22]

(03-13-2024, 12:29 PM)Bengalbug Wrote: Lots of assumptions.
1) assuming the bengals are done in free agency.  You can, im not.
2) assuming Steelers make the playoffs
3) assuming ravens make the playoffs

The playoffs usually have 3-4 new participants, in each conference, each year. Last year was the first full season Lamar played, since his rookie year.  

This post isn’t going to age well.  We will continue to fill holes this week, and I doubt both teams you mentioned will be in the playoffs.  I can see one, but not both.

Steelers are a 9-7 team without a QB with Tomlin. They lost game because they couldn't score more than the 13 points needed to win. They have punched their ticket. 

Ravens, sure if they lose their qb, but remember, they are and have been proven to be a playoff team without Lamar.

Bengals aren't done in FA, but the players they needed to contribute to a championship run are gone.

[jj22]

(03-13-2024, 12:32 PM)Jpoore Wrote: You’re taking snap counts without account for the fact NT in general play 50ish% of snaps. They’re off the field a lot. Problem is we don’t have a good 1st or 2nd pass rushing DT.

Newton has elite elite agility. He becomes what we’ve been missing since larrry 0 at a minimum As a rookie.the prenetrator. Bengals in recent years have opted to prioritize spots in free agency then focus on other holes in draft. As it stands seems they prioritized te, rb, linebacker depth, and starting safety. So it seems obvious that first 2-3 rounds will be trenches prioritized, mainly DT. I expect Jonah to be resigned. The interior lines in afc north aren’t that great and if you could get Newton and sweat? That gives you a deadly combo as they are both pro ready. Sorry what have the Steelers done? Or ravens for that matter. We’ve had significantly better off-season than either of them

Newton got washed out pretty bad in the run game. That is his big weakness.