Trading Down in 1st/2nd Round

[Bengalstripes9]

I've been doing a bunch of mock drafts and it's rare that a player drops to the Bengals at 18.
Here and there I'll get a Corner or OT drop, and very rarely a WR.

What I find works best is if I trade down from 18 to attain the Cardinals pick 27 and pick 35.
We may have to give up our 2nd or lower picks to get it done.

But from that spot of having pick 27 and 35...

It's a guarantee to get Sweat at 35, and you can even trade down to pick 40 and get him and more picks.
If I don't trade at all and try to get Sweat at 49, I'm getting him 5% of the time at best.

At pick 27 I've had the following players fall:
Newton, Bowers, a few different OTs, Graham Barton

Having picks 27 and 35 is more valuable than having picks 18 and 49.
Pick 49 seems to miss out on our needs and I end up wanting to trade down anyway.

With picks 27 and 35, I can end up with Barton, Sweat, and the tackle from Yale at 80, then WR at the 3rd round comp and that is pretty good in my opinion.
It also allows the opportunity to take Newton, Sweat, OT, WR.
Or Bowers, Sweat, OT, WR.

I end up getting a lot more value in the trade down--especially because late 1st, early 2nd has a lot of players the Bengals need--Sweat being a big one.

That said, I would love it if one of the top corners or OTs fell at 18.

If they don't trade down in the 1st, and Sweat isn't there at 49...
Here is another great opportunity to trade down and accumulate 3rd/4th round picks.
There are a lot of good players in these rounds with high value.
I'm looking at OTs, IOL, WR, CB, and even DL.

Anyway, anyone else like the idea of a trade down?
Anyone not like the idea?

[Whatever]

Trade downs always sound great in the sims, where too good to be true type deals are common and you have standby trade proposals you know the sim will take if a certain player doesn't fall to a certain pick.

However, for practical purposes, if there's nobody you like at a pick, what makes you think another team is going to give up a bunch to move into said spot? Need comes into play, obviously, but unless a team is desperate for a QB or completely in love with a certain prospect, it rarely happens.

As always, it depends on who's on the board and what the offer is.

As an aside, folks really need to stop hinging the success of failure of this draft on the Bengals getting or not getting Sweat. In all likelihood, they won't draft him, and those people are just setting themselves up for hysterics when it doesn't happen.

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

(03-26-2024, 01:02 PM)Whatever Wrote: Trade downs always sound great in the sims, where too good to be true type deals are common and you have standby trade proposals you know the sim will take if a certain player doesn't fall to a certain pick.

However, for practical purposes, if there's nobody you like at a pick, what makes you think another team is going to give up a bunch to move into said spot?  Need comes into play, obviously, but unless a team is desperate for a QB or completely in love with a certain prospect, it rarely happens.

As always, it depends on who's on the board and what the offer is.

As an aside, folks really need to stop hinging the success of failure of this draft on the Bengals getting or not getting Sweat.  In all likelihood, they won't draft him, and those people are just setting themselves up for hysterics when it doesn't happen.

He is NOT gonna be there at #49, methinks. And I think Jackson is unlikely at #80.

So you either have to reach, trade down, or live with the hole. 

This is why letting Reader get away was so dumb. The ability to replace him is impossible in FA and very unlikely in the draft. And there is an opportunity cost to doing it in the draft (reaching, trading down, leaving another hole, etc). 

Yes, I know we'd still have a NT issue at the start of the season, but it is a good bet it would not be at the end.

[Bengalstripes9]

(03-26-2024, 01:27 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: He is NOT gonna be there at #49, methinks. And I think Jackson is unlikely at #80.

So you either have to reach, trade down, or live with the hole. 

I'm wondering if they are getting away from having a traditional nose tackle if this is the case. Or maybe they are confident enough with someone on the roster to fill that role. 

I don't see Sweat being there at pick 49. I give it a 5% chance. 

(03-26-2024, 01:02 PM)Whatever Wrote: Trade downs always sound great in the sims, where too good to be true type deals are common and you have standby trade proposals you know the sim will take if a certain player doesn't fall to a certain pick.

However, for practical purposes, if there's nobody you like at a pick, what makes you think another team is going to give up a bunch to move into said spot?  Need comes into play, obviously, but unless a team is desperate for a QB or completely in love with a certain prospect, it rarely happens.

As always, it depends on who's on the board and what the offer is.

As an aside, folks really need to stop hinging the success of failure of this draft on the Bengals getting or not getting Sweat.  In all likelihood, they won't draft him, and those people are just setting themselves up for hysterics when it doesn't happen.

I don't think the success of the draft hinges on drafting Sweat, but I think it would fill a large hole and certainly make our draft better than if we don't draft him. There isn't anyone else like him in the draft. Sure, we can find a day 3 NT--but we've tried that before and they never pan out.

Pick 49 is a spot I am just not very confident in us getting a good player unless we reach. It seems like there's a lot more value in the 3rd/4th rounds. In other words, it doesn't seem like there is much difference in the quality of the players from pick 49 into the 3rd round.

And then if you look at the bottom of the 1st/top of the 2nd, the value is a lot better in terms of who is there is to pick from. As soon as you get past pick 40 or so it drops off. And it could drop off much sooner than that.

So it's a question of whether you would like to get (1) good player at 18 and basically a 3rd round pick at 49. Or would you rather get two good players at 27 and 35?

I'm not saying Arizona wants to make the trade. I'd rather have their draft position if I were them. But trading down in general could be a good strategy is the players we want aren't there at 18. Who knows, we could see a player drop that doesn't fit a need of ours but it fits a need of theirs or another team.

[Essex Johnson]

(03-26-2024, 11:40 AM)Bengalstripes9 Wrote: I've been doing a bunch of mock drafts and it's rare that a player drops to the Bengals at 18.
Here and there I'll get a Corner or OT drop, and very rarely a WR.

What I find works best is if I trade down from 18 to attain the Cardinals pick 27 and pick 35.
We may have to give up our 2nd or lower picks to get it done.

But from that spot of having pick 27 and 35...

It's a guarantee to get Sweat at 35, and you can even trade down to pick 40 and get him and more picks.
If I don't trade at all and try to get Sweat at 49, I'm getting him 5% of the time at best.

At pick 27 I've had the following players fall:
Newton, Bowers, a few different OTs, Graham Barton

Having picks 27 and 35 is more valuable than having picks 18 and 49.
Pick 49 seems to miss out on our needs and I end up wanting to trade down anyway.

With picks 27 and 35, I can end up with Barton, Sweat, and the tackle from Yale at 80, then WR at the 3rd round comp and that is pretty good in my opinion.
It also allows the opportunity to take Newton, Sweat, OT, WR.
Or Bowers, Sweat, OT, WR.

I end up getting a lot more value in the trade down--especially because late 1st, early 2nd has a lot of players the Bengals need--Sweat being a big one.

That said, I would love it if one of the top corners or OTs fell at 18.

If they don't trade down in the 1st, and Sweat isn't there at 49...
Here is another great opportunity to trade down and accumulate 3rd/4th round picks.
There are a lot of good players in these rounds with high value.
I'm looking at OTs, IOL, WR, CB, and even DL.

Anyway, anyone else like the idea of a trade down?
Anyone not like the idea?

The ones I did gave usoptions at #18 especially OT and WR. A quality DT tends to be there but CB is the thin one but I don;t think it is a good draft for CB, but good draft for OT and WR

[Bengalstripes9]

(03-26-2024, 03:38 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: The ones I did gave us options at #18 especially OT and WR.  A quality DT tends to be there but CB is the thin one but I don;t think it is a good draft for CB, but good draft for OT and WR

Definitely a deep draft for the oline. Lots of tackles early and mid. Lots of interior players at all levels as well.

WR is deep, but not as deep. I like the wideouts up top. Mid-late 1st and 2nd round rated receivers all seem to have some questions around them--which makes me look at the 3rd/4th round for more value. It seems like if you want a wideout to play out wide you need to draft him early. But there are some good options for slot receivers in the mid rounds.

CB is similar to me to WR. I like the ones at the top and a few around the 3rd/4th/5th rounds. Part of that is our division and the fact that any corner that has tackling ability concerns is off my board.

[Whatever]

(03-26-2024, 02:12 PM)Bengalstripes9 Wrote: I'm wondering if they are getting away from having a traditional nose tackle if this is the case. Or maybe they are confident enough with someone on the roster to fill that role. 

I don't see Sweat being there at pick 49. I give it a 5% chance. 



I don't think the success of the draft hinges on drafting Sweat, but I think it would fill a large hole and certainly make our draft better than if we don't draft him. There isn't anyone else like him in the draft. Sure, we can find a day 3 NT--but we've tried that before and they never pan out.

Pick 49 is a spot I am just not very confident in us getting a good player unless we reach. It seems like there's a lot more value in the 3rd/4th rounds. In other words, it doesn't seem like there is much difference in the quality of the players from pick 49 into the 3rd round.

And then if you look at the bottom of the 1st/top of the 2nd, the value is a lot better in terms of who is there is to pick from. As soon as you get past pick 40 or so it drops off. And it could drop off much sooner than that.

So it's a question of whether you would like to get (1) good player at 18 and basically a 3rd round pick at 49. Or would you rather get two good players at 27 and 35?

I'm not saying Arizona wants to make the trade. I'd rather have their draft position if I were them. But trading down in general could be a good strategy is the players we want aren't there at 18. Who knows, we could see a player drop that doesn't fit a need of ours but it fits a need of theirs or another team.

I'm not necessarily against Sweat at #49, but I think people's expectations are out of hand with him.  He projects as a NT, but Murphy actually lined up more as the NT for the Longhorns than Sweat did.   Due to his weight and conditioning issues, he will have to be subbed heavily to really get much out of him, especially as a rookie.  And he seems to be this year's draft prospect that everyone just has to have and overrated to the point where they convince themselves that there's no way he'll be there around the slot they're graded at.

Personally, there's plenty of good prospects I would love to have at #49 that probably won't be available later.  Frazier, Beebe, Paul, Pearsall, Polk, Fiske, Jenkins, Benson, etc.  Not saying I wouldn't entertain a trade, but I wouldn't be desperate to.

[Bengalstripes9]

(03-27-2024, 12:44 PM)Whatever Wrote: I'm not necessarily against Sweat at #49, but I think people's expectations are out of hand with him.  He projects as a NT, but Murphy actually lined up more as the NT for the Longhorns than Sweat did.   Due to his weight and conditioning issues, he will have to be subbed heavily to really get much out of him, especially as a rookie.  And he seems to be this year's draft prospect that everyone just has to have and overrated to the point where they convince themselves that there's no way he'll be there around the slot they're graded at.

Personally, there's plenty of good prospects I would love to have at #49 that probably won't be available later.  Frazier, Beebe, Paul, Pearsall, Polk, Fiske, Jenkins, Benson, etc.  Not saying I wouldn't entertain a trade, but I wouldn't be desperate to.

You could be right. Sweat could be over-rated and get fatigued.

I still think pick 35-40 is much better position than pick 49 though. 

Unless someone falls to 18, I think you can get better value at 27 than you can get at 18.

It seems like we'll need to reach at 18 unless we get lucky and someone falls. At 49 it seems similar. I could be wrong though.

If the Bengals trade pick 18 and 49 for pick 27 and 35 they can pick up an additional 3rd round pick.

It really depends who's there at 18 though. There are certainly players I would take in a heartbeat if they fell.

[Bengalstripes9]

Here's a draft where I traded down from the 2nd pick (49).

I think there will be a run on QB with the first 3 picks, then WR with the next 3 picks.
I think from there we'll see premium positions drafted (OT, Edge, Corner).
Once the top Edges are off the board we'll see the top DTs come off the board (around where we pick).
If we don't draft Newton, I think the Rams will after Aaron Donald retired.

I think from there we'll see more corners come off the board, we'll see the top IOLs come of the board, and we'll see another run on WR late in the round.
I think Bowers will drop in the draft because TE isn't as valued of a position and he'll go late in the 1st (this seems to happen every year with TEs).

At 49 I'm expecting to see the Bengals in a tough spot where they can either go WR or they can trade down for OT.

I think the smart play would be to trade down and have plenty of picks in the range where the OTs Paul, Amegadjiie, and Fischer will come off the board.

In my mock I have Buffalo or another team trading up to grab the top safety prospect in the draft. But another team could trade up for WR or another position too.

The WRs I like are Burton at 80 or 97, Brenden Rice at 97 or 115, and McCaffrey at 115 or 128.
For Corner I like Kris Abrams-Draine at 80, Jarvis Brownlee Jr. and Renardo Green at 115 or 128, and Chau Smith-Wade at 149.

I prefer to stock up on the oline and dline early, then switch to Corner and WR in the mid rounds.

I think a lot of the centers in the draft have short arms, and Bartolini is great value where he's slotted to go between 130-160.
I also wouldn't mind picking up a center at 80 or 97 if one falls.

18
Jer'Zhan Newton
DL | Illinois
A

60
Kiran Amegadjie
OT | Yale
A

80
Blake Fisher
OT | Notre Dame
B

97
McKinnley Jackson
DL | Texas A&M
C

115
Brenden Rice
WR | USC
A+

128
Luke McCaffrey
WR | Rice
B+

133
Tanor Bortolini
IOL | Wisconsin
B

149
Chau Smith-Wade
CB | Washington State
A

194
Xavier Thomas
EDGE | Clemson
B+

[puddycat]

If the following are gone by 18: Qbs: Williams, Maye, Daniels, McCarthy, Wrs: Harrison, Nabers, Odunze, DE: Turner, Verse then one of the following will be available: CB: Mitchell, Arnold, DT: Newton, Murphy, DE: Latu, OT Alt, Fashanu, Fuaga, OR TE: Bowers. I would be happy with anyone on the 2nd list.

Otherwise I would look to trade down, although OTs start to drop off fast after Jordan Morgan. Part of my thinking is that there are alot of good Edges, WRs, and Safeties around 50, none of which we need to be looking at IMO.

[BenZoo2]

(03-26-2024, 01:02 PM)Whatever Wrote: Trade downs always sound great in the sims, where too good to be true type deals are common and you have standby trade proposals you know the sim will take if a certain player doesn't fall to a certain pick.

However, for practical purposes, if there's nobody you like at a pick, what makes you think another team is going to give up a bunch to move into said spot? Need comes into play, obviously, but unless a team is desperate for a QB or completely in love with a certain prospect, it rarely happens.

As always, it depends on who's on the board and what the offer is.

As an aside, folks really need to stop hinging the success of failure of this draft on the Bengals getting or not getting Sweat. In all likelihood, they won't draft him, and those people are just setting themselves up for hysterics when it doesn't happen.

Probably the post of the day. Pretty much agree with everything you said here.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[BenZoo2]

(03-26-2024, 01:27 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: He is NOT gonna be there at #49, methinks. And I think Jackson is unlikely at #80.

So you either have to reach, trade down, or live with the hole. 

This is why letting Reader get away was so dumb. The ability to replace him is impossible in FA and very unlikely in the draft. And there is an opportunity cost to doing it in the draft (reaching, trading down, leaving another hole, etc). 

Yes, I know we'd still have a NT issue at the start of the season, but it is a good bet it would not be at the end.

I’m going to start this reply with I really appreciate the work you do with the cap, roster spots etc. you put in the work and your analysis is very well thought out.

But you need to get over reeder. He was one one of my favorite players. I follow him on ig. He’s seemingly a good dude. But he’s gone. He’s been injured a lot. This franchise isn’t used to being in the position it’s in now. That is having to pay for a franchise quarterback. And soon to be a top 5 wr. And on it goes.

Letting him walk is a risk. Keeping him is also a risk. Dudes with a four year injury history don’t generally become bastions of health. Especially when their age starts with a 3. Time will tell what the right move was.

But if it was YOUR money would you be so hung yo in your position?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Whatever]

(03-30-2024, 01:31 AM)BenZoo2 Wrote: I’m going to start this reply with I really appreciate the work you do with the cap, roster spots etc.  you put in the work and your analysis is very well thought out.  

But you need to get over reeder.  He was one one of my favorite players.  I follow him on ig.  He’s seemingly a good dude.  But he’s gone.  He’s been injured a lot.  This franchise isn’t used to being in the position it’s in now.  That is having to pay for a franchise quarterback.  And soon to be a top 5 wr.  And on it goes.

Letting him walk is a risk.  Keeping him is also a risk.  Dudes with a four year injury history don’t generally become bastions of health.  Especially when their age starts with a 3.  Time will tell what the right move was.  

But if it was YOUR money would you be so hung yo in your position?


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I liked DJ, too.  However, he's a guy that missed 23 out of a possible 67 games during his Bengals career.  In addition to missing over 1/3 of the regular season games outright, he was only playing 58-60% of the snaps in the games he dressed. 

[*bfine32*]

Some fans want Quarterbacks
Some fans want Runningbacks
Some fans want Cornerbacks
We always want Tradebacks

[*bfine32*]

(03-26-2024, 01:02 PM)Whatever Wrote: Trade downs always sound great in the sims, where too good to be true type deals are common and you have standby trade proposals you know the sim will take if a certain player doesn't fall to a certain pick.

However, for practical purposes, if there's nobody you like at a pick, what makes you think another team is going to give up a bunch to move into said spot?  Need comes into play, obviously, but unless a team is desperate for a QB or completely in love with a certain prospect, it rarely happens.

As always, it depends on who's on the board and what the offer is.

As an aside, folks really need to stop hinging the success of failure of this draft on the Bengals getting or not getting Sweat.  In all likelihood, they won't draft him, and those people are just setting themselves up for hysterics when it doesn't happen.

Keep in mind we're the last pick for a team not in the playoffs (I get CLV/HOU) so after us you may have playoff teams jockeying to jump each other. I could see Dallas being a dancing partner to leapfrog Philly

[WhoDeyK]

(03-26-2024, 01:02 PM)Whatever Wrote: Trade downs always sound great in the sims, where too good to be true type deals are common and you have standby trade proposals you know the sim will take if a certain player doesn't fall to a certain pick.

However, for practical purposes, if there's nobody you like at a pick, what makes you think another team is going to give up a bunch to move into said spot? Need comes into play, obviously, but unless a team is desperate for a QB or completely in love with a certain prospect, it rarely happens.

As always, it depends on who's on the board and what the offer is.

As an aside, folks really need to stop hinging the success of failure of this draft on the Bengals getting or not getting Sweat. In all likelihood, they won't draft him, and those people are just setting themselves up for hysterics when it doesn't happen.

Nice post, couldn’t agree with this more! I’m actually not in the trade down boat. Unless things go off the rails, I think there will be someone available at 18 who could make a really big impact on this team. Unpopular but Id rather trade Tee if we were trying to get an extra early round pick than trade back. Not because i don’t like Tee but because I think he’s going to leave sooner rather than later so we might as well get something good in return while we can.

So many people have Sweat as the round 2 pick in their mocks. Which makes me laugh because if he’s that pivotal to a successful draft, you can’t play games like that, you’d need to take him in 1.Not that I think that’s his actual value. I like Sweat but him being the only capable DJ replacement is overblown. Reader himself was 5th round pick. McKinley Jackson is a solid mid round option but the guy who I think is being slept on as a 4-3 Nose is Fabian Lovett. Dudes a tough run defender. I’d be happy with him in the mid rounds.

[Ell Prez]

We’d have to trade down in the first, just to trade up in the second? That doesn’t sound worth it. I’m in favor of trading down if we can pick up an another second.

[EatonFan]

(03-30-2024, 09:47 PM)Ell Prez Wrote: We’d have to trade down in the first, just to trade up in the second? That doesn’t sound worth it. I’m in favor of trading down if we can pick up an another second.

Would you trade our 1st round pick to Carolina for both of the their 2nd round picks?

[puddycat]

(03-31-2024, 09:33 AM)EatonFan Wrote: Would you trade our 1st round pick to Carolina for both of the their 2nd round picks?

Depends on BPA.  The drop-off from the top TE, DTs is too high. Or a top 3-4 OT could still be there.  After that..???   

[SunsetBengal]

(03-31-2024, 09:33 AM)EatonFan Wrote: Would you trade our 1st round pick to Carolina for both of the their 2nd round picks?

Absolutely. The only catch would be if the player that the Bengals had their hearts sold on was sitting right there at #18.