2 stats for why 2024 is huge for the Bengals

[SunsetBengal]

(04-22-2024, 12:48 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: I'm so hoping we get another back in the draft. Evans and Williams just don't move the needle much as a 3rd back. And IMHO lacking a solid ground game has been one of our key missing ingredients for Joe. And it makes all the difference in the world in the red zone.

And I agree, I believe this year is critical for the Bengals. Joe Burrow has to stay healthy.

Exactly, you and I, along with a few others have said so many times on here that the easiest way to get the pass rush off of Joe's ass is by being able to run the ball effectively and forcing the defense to respect that we can and will run the ball on them.

[TecmoBengals]

(04-22-2024, 01:24 PM)CJD Wrote: It's pattern seeking correlation brought on almost entirely by superstition.

When it comes to my football fandom, I prefer superstition over logic and reason. 

Fingers crossed Burrow wins a Super Bowl. I desperately want the Bengals winning it all.

[depthchart]

(04-22-2024, 01:13 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Rivers then had more than 5 years with his next HC, having 6 years with Norv Turner and still didn't win a SB. 14-2 or not, Marty Schottenheimer was never going to win a SB. Guy coached for 21 years and won 5 playoff games. When the Chargers fired him he hadn't won a single playoff game in the previous 13 years.

5 years is a REALLY long time in the NFL. You can't use the word impatience when talking about waiting 5 years in the NFL. That's the majority of a great player's productive years (AJ Green was basically done after 7 years, Chad after 9 years, Corey Dillon after 8 years) and 1/3rd of a franchise QB's career (probably more when you figure they normally aren't great their rookie year and have 1-2 twilight years at the end).

No one can definitively know what Schottenheimer may have been able to do with a few more years with Rivers. (They lost more chances together)

Impatience may not be the right word but I do expect the Bengals to have more patience with Zac & his Staff thus giving him beyond 5 years 

worth of chances to win it all with Burrow.

*We may need to find Coaches that had a QB in Burrow's Class that got 6 or more years together to see exactly how many of these type of Chances

  actually occurred.  

 Zac may get more bites at the apple than most Coaches would get Historically (if Ownership remains patient)

[*ochocincos*]

(04-22-2024, 10:15 AM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Let's hope that the team does for Joe what the Broncos did for John Elway. Build a fundamentally sound rushing attack and solid defense, that way the pressure to win every game is more equally divided throughout the team, rather than a disproportionate amount falling on the QBs shoulders.

That's not happening with Zack Moss.
Let's be real.

About the only RBs you can argue carry their teams nowadays are:
- Christian McCaffrey
- Nick Chubb
- Maybe Derrick Henry (although it will be interesting to see him in BAL)

Bijan Robinson might end up being one of those if ATL doesn't change their offensive style.
No more Arthur Smith now though, so Morris could make it more of a passing offense.
I don't foresee Morris being HC long though.
He fizzled out with TB after just 3 seasons.

[*jason*]

(04-22-2024, 01:24 PM)CJD Wrote: Stats like this are fascinating because humans, by nature, try to look for patterns in life. So it makes sense that people could see that stat and decide that it has some sort of causal link to whether or not the Bengals will ever get the Super Bowl again.

But it's completely nonsensical. There's nothing about losing a Super Bowl by 3 points that could possibly cause that player to never reach the Super Bowl ever again. It's pattern seeking correlation brought on almost entirely by superstition.

Burrow may or may not ever play in a Super Bowl again.

But it will have nothing to do with the fact that he lost the first Super Bowl he appeared in.

It's just extremely hard to even get to a Super Bowl once let alone twice. Not winning in 2021 really hurts.

[Bengalstripes9]

I don't think the Super Bowl stat means that much.

The Bengals were expected to win their first game at best when they went on their Super Bowl run.
They went a lot further than everyone expected.
Their oline caught up with them in the Super Bowl--yet they still almost won.

The next year they fixed the oline and three starters were injured leading up to the playoffs.
They still almost won the AFC championship.

How can they get over the hump?
Improve in the secondary and on defense.
Run game and pass defense must improve to make another deep run.
They need another good/great player to add to the dline rotation to improve the pass rush.
They need another young/talented corner to add to the mix for depth as well.

Their oline needs to stay healthy for the playoffs.
Burrow, Chase, and the majority of their top players need to stay healthy.

If all these things happen I see no reason why they can't win it all.

The Chiefs draft two years ago was a huge catalyst to their back-to-back Championships.
Bengals need a great draft this week to fuel a deep run and continued success in the future.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(04-22-2024, 01:57 PM)depthchart Wrote: No one can definitively know what Schottenheimer may have been able to do with a few more years with Rivers. (They lost more chances together)

Impatience may not be the right word but I do expect the Bengals to have more patience with Zac & his Staff thus giving him beyond 5 years 

worth of chances to win it all with Burrow.

*We may need to find Coaches that had a QB in Burrow's Class that got 6 or more years together to see exactly how many of these type of Chances

  actually occurred.  

 Zac may get more bites at the apple than most Coaches would get Historically (if Ownership remains patient)

Just like that guy who died building a homemade rocket to try to get to space was never going to reach space no matter how many more tries he got and if Marvin Lewis was still our HC throughout the Joe Burrow era we would never have reached the SB (heck, just look at the 6th, 7th, and 8th years of the Lewis/Palmer era or the 6th, 7th, and 8th years of the Lewis/Dalton era) we can comfortably say Marty Schottenheimer was never going to win a SB. Ever. 

A 6th year of hitting a rock with an egg will not change the fact that the egg is going to break before the rock. There's a reason that despite getting fired after a 14-2 season he never was a coach in the NFL ever again.

Coaches that got a Burrow Class QB for >6 years and didn't win a SB...
Dan Marino. He and Don Shula were together for 13 years.
Philip Rivers. He and Norv Turner were together for 6 years.
Jim Kelly. He and Marv Levy were together for 10 years.
John Elway. He and Dan Reeves were together for 10 years.
Matt Ryan. He and Mike Smith were together for 7 years.
Boomer Esiason. He and Sam Wyche were together for 8 years.
Fran Tarkenton. He and Bud Grant were together for 12 years.
Dan Fouts. He and Don Coryell were together for 7 years.

There's more, but I just don't feel like looking up more. Lol

Alternatively to a Joe Burrow class QB, Andy Reid is a future HoF coach and he and Donovan McNabb were paired together for 11 years, no SB. Then Andy Reid and Alex Smith were together for 5 years, no SB, they made a change despite Alex Smith having led the NFL in QB Rating the previous year and having a 116.2 rating in their playoff loss and put in Patrick Mahomes and got 3 rings. 

If you're sure one of the two of your combination is THE guy, then you eventually need to make a change with the other because clearly something isn't working and just hanging around trying to make it work when it hasn't is not a solution. It has never been a solution in all of NFL history and is how you just get another Dan Marino.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(04-22-2024, 07:27 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: This year will decide a lot about what the Bengals should do for their future due to two stats...

1. The last 18 QBs to lose their first SB have never started another SB (and only 4 in NFL history have).
2. No QB/HC duo in NFL history have ever won their first SB together later than their 5th year together.

I think Burrow is a good enough QB that so long as he can stay healthy he can overturn #1. Elway was the last to do it, so it has been done despite the odds being against him.

The fact that no QB/HC duo have ever done the second one in NFL history though makes me think that if you don't have it click and get it done early, it's never going to happen no matter how many years you have together. Without the trophy and ring, the messaging can only work for so long.

So I think 2024 is going to be a big year because playoffs and a win or two isn't going to be enough to maintain the status quo for 2025. It's SB or bust this year. We'd be trying to push two massive boulders up a mountain if we don't win a ring and try to keep things as they are.

I think that Burrow will be the 5th QB to do #1 and will probably start in numerous Super Bowls as long as we take care of the team around
him and namely the OL. Zac and Joe should have a lot of shots at winning SB's over the years they should be together, not going to bet against
them. As another poster said, the Bengals have been breaking a lot of used to be stats/records over the last 3 years.

[*Nately120*]

(04-22-2024, 10:38 AM)TecmoBengals Wrote: Right on. Burrow needs to become Elway 2.0 preferably without anymore Super Bowl losses.

Please, please, and please Football Gods do not allow Burrow to become Marino 2.0.

Well, Elway threatened to quit football before he took a single snap because he didn't want to play for the team that drafted him, so Burrow sure as shinola ain't him.

[*Nately120*]

(04-22-2024, 03:25 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Just like that guy who died building a homemade rocket to try to get to space was never going to reach space no matter how many more tries he got and if Marvin Lewis was still our HC throughout the Joe Burrow era we would never have reached the SB (heck, just look at the 6th, 7th, and 8th years of the Lewis/Palmer era or the 6th, 7th, and 8th years of the Lewis/Dalton era) we can comfortably say Marty Schottenheimer was never going to win a SB. Ever. 

A 6th year of hitting a rock with an egg will not change the fact that the egg is going to break before the rock. There's a reason that despite getting fired after a 14-2 season he never was a coach in the NFL ever again.

Coaches that got a Burrow Class QB for >6 years and didn't win a SB...
Dan Marino. He and Don Shula were together for 13 years.
Philip Rivers. He and Norv Turner were together for 6 years.
Jim Kelly. He and Marv Levy were together for 10 years.
John Elway. He and Dan Reeves were together for 10 years.
Matt Ryan. He and Mike Smith were together for 7 years.
Boomer Esiason. He and Sam Wyche were together for 8 years.
Fran Tarkenton. He and Bud Grant were together for 12 years.
Dan Fouts. He and Don Coryell were together for 7 years.

There's more, but I just don't feel like looking up more. Lol

Alternatively to a Joe Burrow class QB, Andy Reid is a future HoF coach and he and Donovan McNabb were paired together for 11 years, no SB. Then Andy Reid and Alex Smith were together for 5 years, no SB, they made a change despite Alex Smith having led the NFL in QB Rating the previous year and having a 116.2 rating in their playoff loss and put in Patrick Mahomes and got 3 rings. 

If you're sure one of the two of your combination is THE guy, then you eventually need to make a change with the other because clearly something isn't working and just hanging around trying to make it work when it hasn't is not a solution. It has never been a solution in all of NFL history and is how you just get another Dan Marino.

This makes a lot of sense.  With that being said, I have absolutely no ability to picture ZT not being Burrow's coach for his entire time here, if not his entire career.  

[depthchart]

(04-22-2024, 03:25 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote:
Just like that guy who died building a homemade rocket to try to get to space was never going to reach space no matter how many more tries he got and if Marvin Lewis was still our HC throughout the Joe Burrow era we would never have reached the SB (heck, just look at the 6th, 7th, and 8th years of the Lewis/Palmer era or the 6th, 7th, and 8th years of the Lewis/Dalton era) we can comfortably say Marty Schottenheimer was never going to win a SB. Ever. 

A 6th year of hitting a rock with an egg will not change the fact that the egg is going to break before the rock. There's a reason that despite getting fired after a 14-2 season he never was a coach in the NFL ever again.

Coaches that got a Burrow Class QB for >6 years and didn't win a SB...
Dan Marino. He and Don Shula were together for 13 years.
Philip Rivers. He and Norv Turner were together for 6 years.
Jim Kelly. He and Marv Levy were together for 10 years.
John Elway. He and Dan Reeves were together for 10 years.
Matt Ryan. He and Mike Smith were together for 7 years.
Boomer Esiason. He and Sam Wyche were together for 8 years.
Fran Tarkenton. He and Bud Grant were together for 12 years.
Dan Fouts. He and Don Coryell were together for 7 years.

There's more, but I just don't feel like looking up more. Lol

Alternatively to a Joe Burrow class QB, Andy Reid is a future HoF coach and he and Donovan McNabb were paired together for 11 years, no SB. Then Andy Reid and Alex Smith were together for 5 years, no SB, they made a change despite Alex Smith having led the NFL in QB Rating the previous year and having a 116.2 rating in their playoff loss and put in Patrick Mahomes and got 3 rings. 

If you're sure one of the two of your combination is THE guy, then you eventually need to make a change with the other because clearly something isn't working and just hanging around trying to make it work when it hasn't is not a solution. It has never been a solution in all of NFL history and is how you just get another Dan Marino.

Schottenheimer was brought up to show potential Ownership impatience. Fired after a 14 & 2 season.

You gave a lot of good examples and being definitive in your thoughts about Schottenheimer & NFL History you are left with a hard decision

after the 2024 season if the Bengals do not Win it all in 2024.  Year 6 will start in 2025.

Do you FIRE Zac or get rid of Burrow ?    What will you recommend seeing that you are boxed in by your conclusions ? 

Which person do you send away in 2025 before year 6 begins ?

[Ctfan73]

I’m getting 6 who lost their first and played in another, 3 got a win:

Len Dawson - lost 1, won 4
Craig Morton - lost 5,12
Bob Griese - lost 6, won 7
Fran Tarkenton- lost 8,9,11
John Elway - lost 21,22,24, won 32,33
Jim Kelly - lost 25-28

If the Bengals fall short this year they’ll just have to be the first combo to win after year 5 as there’s no way they’re firing Taylor.

[depthchart]

(04-22-2024, 05:42 PM)Ctfan73 Wrote: I’m getting 6 who lost their first and played in another, 3 got a win:

Len Dawson - lost 1, won 4
Craig Morton - lost 5,12
Bob Griese - lost 6, won 7
Fran Tarkenton- lost 8,9,11
John Elway -  lost 21,22,24, won 32,33
Jim Kelly - lost 25-28

If the Bengals fall short this year they’ll just have to be the first combo to win after year 5 as there’s no way they’re firing Taylor.

Based on the Thread's Premise, even if the Bengals went to the Super Bowl after the 2024 Regular Season and lost by 1 point on a late

field goal, either Zac or Burrow would need to go before the 2025 Season started or else the Bengals would be beating an egg on a rock

or become the equivalent of having some average clown building a Rocket to try to go to space.

Per the Thread's Premise they Gotta blow it all up with either a New Head Coach (& likely Staff) or a New QB...   

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(04-22-2024, 04:33 PM)depthchart Wrote: Schottenheimer was brought up to show potential Ownership impatience. Fired after a 14 & 2 season.

You gave a lot of good examples and being definitive in your thoughts about Schottenheimer & NFL History you are left with a hard decision

after the 2024 season if the Bengals do not Win it all in 2024.  Year 6 will start in 2025.

Do you FIRE Zac or get rid of Burrow ?    What will you recommend seeing that you are boxed in by your conclusions ? 

Which person do you send away in 2025 before year 6 begins ?

Bringing him up didn't have the intended effect, then. He never coached again in the NFL after that year. That's 31 other owners who agreed they didn't want him as their HC, and 31 other HCs who didn't want him on their staff. 

He had Drew Brees AND Philip Rivers along with HoF weapons like Antonio Gates and LaDainian Tomlinson and couldn't even win 1 playoff game in 5 years. That's two different HoF QBs and top-8 all-time TE and RB. So yeah, my thought about Schottenheimer and his chance to win a SB if he got a couple more years in SD are pretty definitive.

- - - - - -

I'd like to think that Burrow if he can stay healthy is a top-3 QB in the NFL right now (Mahomes, Rodgers with the same if healthy caveat, Burrow). Also one of them has a $105.25m dead cap in 2025 and the other doesn't. Not boxed in at all, it's not really even a question. If you make a shakeup, it's the guy who is both HC and defacto OC.

[SunsetBengal]

(04-22-2024, 02:52 PM)ochocincos Wrote: That's not happening with Zack Moss.
Let's be real.

About the only RBs you can argue carry their teams nowadays are:
- Christian McCaffrey
- Nick Chubb
- Maybe Derrick Henry (although it will be interesting to see him in BAL)

Actually, I look for Chase Brown to get the majority share of RB snaps, like maybe a 60-40 split with Moss. And, you never know if the team might already have RB on their sights for this draft. A reliable rushing attack doesn't mean that they need to run 50% of the time, just be effective and reliable when they do run the ball. Part of that starts with showing that you're willing to line up and imposing your will by running the ball, there will be some games along the way that command that they do.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(04-22-2024, 08:09 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Actually, I look for Chase Brown to get the majority share of RB snaps, like maybe a 60-40 split with Moss. And, you never know if the team might already have RB on their sights for this draft. A reliable rushing attack doesn't mean that they need to run 50% of the time, just be effective and reliable when they do run the ball. Part of that starts with showing that you're willing to line up and imposing your will by running the ball, there will be some games along the way that command that they do.

Braelon Allen Sunset, Braelon Allen. 

[depthchart]

(04-22-2024, 06:44 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Bringing him up didn't have the intended effect, then. He never coached again in the NFL after that year. That's 31 other owners who agreed they didn't want him as their HC, and 31 other HCs who didn't want him on their staff. 

He had Drew Brees AND Philip Rivers along with HoF weapons like Antonio Gates and LaDainian Tomlinson and couldn't even win 1 playoff game in 5 years. That's two different HoF QBs and top-8 all-time TE and RB. So yeah, my thought about Schottenheimer and his chance to win a SB if he got a couple more years in SD are pretty definitive.

- - - - - -

I'd like to think that Burrow if he can stay healthy is a top-3 QB in the NFL right now (Mahomes, Rodgers with the same if healthy caveat, Burrow). Also one of them has a $105.25m dead cap in 2025 and the other doesn't. Not boxed in at all, it's not really even a question. If you make a shakeup, it's the guy who is both HC and defacto OC.

Never claimed that Schottenheimer would have won a Super Bowl if given more chances but was showing how there are likely many Coaches 

throughout History that may have lost chances to Coach beyond 5 years with the same QB due to Ownership impatience. 

I would think that the odds of Schottenheimer winning a Super Bowl with Rivers would have been small but he did show a 14 & 2 aptitude

and I am seeing that he currently ranks 9th All Time in Career wins. 


It looks like the Bengals have around a 7% chance of winning the next Super Bowl per Vegas odds.

Based on your beliefs; 

Shouldn't you encourage the Bengals to begin a preliminary (behind the scenes) Head Coaching search now for the 2025 season ?

After all, the Bengals may get to a Super Bowl & lose leaving very little time to get a New Head Coach in before the 2025 Draft & Season.

Why would you say "If" regarding a shakeup ?   Wouldn't you Demand a shakeup since year 6 & beyond is cursed ?

If the 2024 Season ends without a Super Bowl win then I expect to see some Threads from you demanding Zac be Fired & enlightening 

the Bengals as to your reasons why he has to be Fired heading into year 6 with Burrow.

[SunsetBengal]

(04-22-2024, 08:22 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Braelon Allen Sunset, Braelon Allen. 

You know it, I had him in my first 2 or 3 mocks of the draft season.

[*jason*]

(04-22-2024, 08:23 PM)depthchart Wrote: Never claimed that Schottenheimer would have won a Super Bowl if given more chances but was showing how there are likely many Coaches 

throughout History that may have lost chances to Coach beyond 5 years with the same QB due to Ownership impatience. 

I would think that the odds of Schottenheimer winning a Super Bowl with Rivers would have been small but he did show a 14 & 2 aptitude

and I am seeing that he currently ranks 9th All Time in Career wins. 


It looks like the Bengals have around a 7% chance of winning the next Super Bowl per Vegas odds.

Based on your beliefs; 

Shouldn't you encourage the Bengals to begin a preliminary (behind the scenes) Head Coaching search now for the 2025 season ?

After all, the Bengals may get to a Super Bowl & lose leaving very little time to get a New Head Coach in before the 2025 Draft & Season.

Why would you say "If" regarding a shakeup ?   Wouldn't you Demand a shakeup since year 6 & beyond is cursed ?

If the 2024 Season ends without a Super Bowl win then I expect to see some Threads from you demanding Zac be Fired & enlightening 

the Bengals as to your reasons why he has to be Fired heading into year 6 with Burrow.

It's not that year 6 is cursed. It's that it's extremely hard to even get to a Super Bowl. When you do get there, you'd better win the damn thing, because you probably aren't going back. Those trends that are pointed out in the OP illustrate that. If Burrow stays healthy and if we improve in xyz, and this happens and that happens, we can get back a win a few of them... There are a lot of moving parts in those scenarios.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(04-22-2024, 08:23 PM)depthchart Wrote: and I am seeing that he currently ranks 9th All Time in Career wins. 


Shouldn't you encourage the Bengals to begin a preliminary (behind the scenes) Head Coaching search now for the 2025 season ?

And again, he didn't win a single playoff game in his final 13 years. Just 3 years shy of Marvin's 16 year streak without a playoff win. It wasn't ownership incompetency or impatience to fire him.

- - - -

Why should I encourage the Bengals to commit tampering? 

You've seemingly decided to make some real weird jumps in logic that you feel should be applied to my thoughts and my beliefs. You're starting to feel like you're not actually interested in talking to me here and are drifting towards instead making imaginary stances for me and then arguing against the stances you invented for me. I'm not needed for that if you just want to point and counterpoint yourself, so have a good one.