Am I Unrealistically Excited?!

[Soonerpeace]

(06-12-2024, 11:52 AM)Soonerpeace Wrote: But which of those do you feel will work out?

(06-12-2024, 12:12 PM)ochocincos Wrote: From CB perspective, I lean toward DJ Turner.
Some people had unrealistic expectations for a rookie to come in and be great immediately. That was unfair to Turner.

While Turner didn't have any INTs last year, he did have 7 PDs and 50 tackles in 829 defensive snaps.
Maybe surprising to some, that's right about what Eli Apple (who many wanted back as insurance last year) did each of his 2 years as a Bengal:
2021 - 10 PDs, 49 tackles in 979 defensive snaps
2022 - 8 PDs, 49 tackles in 908 snaps

Given Apple was a former Top 10 pick, was an experienced veteran, and was right in the prime of his career those 2 years, I think Turner's floor is Apple and his ceiling is even higher.

Some might say, "Well, you're talking stats...what about the mishaps in the games that aren't reflected in stats?!"
And while true there were some mishaps that people remember, people should expect a rookie to have some gaffes. At least that's my opinion.
Leon Hall got whooped a pretty good amount as a rookie (I'll always remember Braylon Edwards beating him over and over in that CLE game in 2007), but turned into a really damn good CB within a couple years after. Gotta give players some time.

I think Hill will act as a versatile piece this year before taking over for Hilton next year.
While I thought the team gave up too quickly on him at FS, I hope he finds a spot by next year so it's not a bust of a pick.

Newton I think will be a CB4 kinda guy who plays across multiple spots and spot starts.

Ha ha thanks I meant your original

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(06-12-2024, 12:12 PM)ochocincos Wrote: From CB perspective, I lean toward DJ Turner.
Some people had unrealistic expectations for a rookie to come in and be great immediately. That was unfair to Turner.

While Turner didn't have any INTs last year, he did have 7 PDs and 50 tackles in 829 defensive snaps.
Maybe surprising to some, that's right about what Eli Apple (who many wanted back as insurance last year) did each of his 2 years as a Bengal:
2021 - 10 PDs, 49 tackles in 979 defensive snaps
2022 - 8 PDs, 49 tackles in 908 snaps

Given Apple was a former Top 10 pick, was an experienced veteran, and was right in the prime of his career those 2 years, I think Turner's floor is Apple and his ceiling is even higher.

Some might say, "Well, you're talking stats...what about the mishaps in the games that aren't reflected in stats?!"
And while true there were some mishaps that people remember, people should expect a rookie to have some gaffes. At least that's my opinion.
Leon Hall got whooped a pretty good amount as a rookie (I'll always remember Braylon Edwards beating him over and over in that CLE game in 2007), but turned into a really damn good CB within a couple years after. Gotta give players some time.

I think Hill will act as a versatile piece this year before taking over for Hilton next year.
While I thought the team gave up too quickly on him at FS, I hope he finds a spot by next year so it's not a bust of a pick.

Newton I think will be a CB4 kinda guy who plays across multiple spots and spot starts.

Turner's mishaps ARE reflected in stats. PFR has him as allowing a 111.6 QB Rating in his coverage. 

Eli Apple who you brought into the comparison...
2021: 86.6
2022: 96.9

To Turner's credit he IS a notably better tackler than Apple. Turner had a missed tackle % of 7.4% which I think is pretty good for a CB, Apple had 19.7% in 2021 and 12.5% in 2022 which is pretty atrocious. If Turner was a less sure tackler that 111.6 would have somehow exploded even further.

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

For me:

A lot better: OT, TE, S, DT, QB (health)
A little better: DE, P
Same: PK, LS
A tad worse: WR, CB, RB, IOL, LB
A lot worse: NT

Some things could change depending on how rookies or newcomers perform.

We lost one of the best, if not the best, run stopping NTs in the NFL. We are a lot worse there. And I like the Jackson pick.

I don't think Boyd to Burton is an upgrade. But if Tee is healthier, Burton hits, and Yoshi & Jones level up, WR could be much improved. And certainly more dynamic.

Ditto RB. I don't view Moss for Mixon as an upgrade. But not a huge dropoff either. If Brown levels up, it is maybe a wash.

With Chido gone and Ivey hurt I do not see Hill & Newton as upgrades. Though that is likely a depth downgrade. If Turner & CTB level up, we should get a boost from the starters. If Hill & Newton produce
, it could be a significant upgrade.

We lost a little depth at LB (Bailey) and IOL (Scharping). I do not see an acquisition that boosts either spot. Though perhaps the undeniable upgrades at S gets us better LB play from the LBs we have.

QB should be better with a healthier Burrow & more experienced Browning.

Rankins plus Jenkins is a sure plus at DT.

OT and TE are inarguably improved, potentially by a LOT. Brown & Mims + Gesicki, All ,& Mclachlan with Sample & Hudson back.

Punter should be better. McNamara or an improved Robbins.

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

I forgot DE.

Should be a slight upgrade. Healthier Hubbard and Murphy should improve. Hopefully Ossai stays healthy.

Maybe Gunter/Johnson make the team as well.

[BFritz21]

(06-12-2024, 04:38 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: I don't think Boyd to Burton is an upgrade. But if Tee is healthier, Burton hits, and Yoshi & Jones level up, WR could be much improved. And certainly more dynamic.

I think you're crazy in thinking that Burton isn't an upgrade over Boyd. He has great hands, can beat press coverage and go deep, he's fast, and he can run routes underneath and catch the ball between the numbers, but that part of his game is overlooked because Bama went deep a lot.

He's easily equal to Boyd but he can do so much more and has great hands, especially when they're contested catches.

He didn't get the target volume that other receivers in this draft class did or he'd be one of the top-rated receivers in the class.

(06-12-2024, 04:38 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: Ditto RB. I don't view Moss for Mixon as an upgrade. But not a huge dropoff either. If Brown levels up, it is maybe a wash. 

I don't know how you can say that Moss and Brown aren't upgrades over Mixon.

In the limited snaps that we saw Brown, he showed the same things that he showed in college, which is patience, vision, burst, value receiving out of the backfield, and the ability to break tackles. 

He runs behind his pads and finishes runs.

Moss has just been behind some good backs but he hits the holes hard and is a massive upgrade. He's not going to trip over the lines on the field like Mixon did.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(06-12-2024, 06:15 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: I think you're crazy in thinking that Burton isn't an upgrade over Boyd.

Why bother asking the question of the thread title if you're going to throw this out? Lol. Burton in 2024 will probably not be an upgrade over Boyd and thinking someone is crazy for thinking that is you already being unrealistically excited.

15 WRs were drafted over the last 3 years in the 3rd round, and only 2 of them reached even 500 yards receiving as a rookie and even 500 yards wouldn't be an upgrade over Boyd.

Now 2025 Burton vs 2025 Boyd? Can certainly have a conversation there... but 2024? Likely not.

[BFritz21]

(06-12-2024, 06:21 PM)JAllenJ Wrote: I have read a lot of your posts.  You are pretty unrealistic about pretty much everything.  No offense 

Yet you can’t point out a single example in this post, meaning that you have no credibility and post based on emotion. No offense.

[BFritz21]

(06-12-2024, 10:07 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Why bother asking the question of the thread title if you're going to throw this out? Lol. Burton in 2024 will probably not be an upgrade over Boyd and thinking someone is crazy for thinking that is you already being unrealistically excited.

15 WRs were drafted over the last 3 years in the 3rd round, and only 2 of them reached even 500 yards receiving as a rookie and even 500 yards wouldn't be an upgrade over Boyd.

Now 2025 Burton vs 2025 Boyd? Can certainly have a conversation there... but 2024? Likely not.

Because I post for things to debate.

Burton has the talent ahead of where he was drafted, and he also has Burrow.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(06-12-2024, 10:55 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: Burton has the talent ahead of where he was drafted, and he also has Burrow.

People like to say Burrow was only healthy for 5 games or whatever last year, and if you look at those games only, Boyd was on pace for 986 yards and 7 TDs. In 2022 Boyd had two 100+ yard games including a 155 yard game. He's not a scrub, his talent is there, he's just behind Chase and Higgins in the pecking order. Same way that Burton will be.

Even if Burton's talent is ahead of where he was drafted, lets look at 2nd round picks then. Of the 16 2nd round pick WRs drafted over the last 3 years only 6 of them reached 500 yards their rookie year. If we moved that up to just 600 yards (which still wouldn't be an upgrade over Boyd) that number drops to 4 out of 16 with one of those 4 at 611 yards.

The odds are Burton in his rookie year will not be an upgrade over Boyd. 

[BFritz21]

(06-12-2024, 11:19 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: People like to say Burrow was only healthy for 5 games or whatever last year, and if you look at those games only, Boyd was on pace for 986 yards and 7 TDs. In 2022 Boyd had two 100+ yard games including a 155 yard game. He's not a scrub, his talent is there, he's just behind Chase and Higgins in the pecking order. Same way that Burton will be.

Even if Burton's talent is ahead of where he was drafted, lets look at 2nd round picks then. Of the 16 2nd round pick WRs drafted over the last 3 years only 6 of them reached 500 yards their rookie year. If we moved that up to just 600 yards (which still wouldn't be an upgrade over Boyd) that number drops to 4 out of 16 with one of those 4 at 611 yards.

The odds are Burton in his rookie year will not be an upgrade over Boyd. 

Maybe he won't be better statically just because of all the weapons Burrow has now, but I think he'll play his role just as well as Boyd did, if not better, so I think he will be an upgrade. 

[*ochocincos*]

(06-12-2024, 02:00 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Turner's mishaps ARE reflected in stats. PFR has him as allowing a 111.6 QB Rating in his coverage. 

Eli Apple who you brought into the comparison...
2021: 86.6
2022: 96.9

To Turner's credit he IS a notably better tackler than Apple. Turner had a missed tackle % of 7.4% which I think is pretty good for a CB, Apple had 19.7% in 2021 and 12.5% in 2022 which is pretty atrocious. If Turner was a less sure tackler that 111.6 would have somehow exploded even further.

And Eli Apple allowed a QB Rating of 100.9 and 111.1 in 2019-2020.
And that was when he was 24 and 25 years old.
Turner was 22 years old last year.

I bring this up because, again, Turner really isn't as bad as some people have made him out to be.
People need to give the kid a chance.

[grampahol]

I've always been a bit unrealistically excited about this team this time of the season even when they sucked big time. I can't help it. Then comes the preseason and I always hope they look terrible because when they look terrible in preseason they usually do much better in the regular season. Maybe it's a subconscious reverse osmosis psychological thing.
Anyway, at least it's not all gloom and doom like some years. We don't have 6 page rants of what a shitty owner the team  has every other day now. That's a plus. In some ways I almost miss looking forward to reading those rants.   :hilarious:

[Sled21]

(06-12-2024, 06:15 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: I think you're crazy in thinking that Burton isn't an upgrade over Boyd. He has great hands, can beat press coverage and go deep, he's fast, and he can run routes underneath and catch the ball between the numbers, but that part of his game is overlooked because Bama went deep a lot.

He's easily equal to Boyd but he can do so much more and has great hands, especially when they're contested catches.

He didn't get the target volume that other receivers in this draft class did or he'd be one of the top-rated receivers in the class.

Easy there cowboy, Tyler "the Raven killer" Boyd has been getting it done for years. Burton has yet to take a snap against an NFL defense. He may wind up being better than Boyd, but he also may wind up being John Ross 2.0. Might want to wait before making that proclamation.

[grampahol]

(06-13-2024, 12:51 PM)Sled21 Wrote: Easy there cowboy, Tyler "the Raven killer" Boyd has been getting it done for years. Burton has yet to take a snap against an NFL defense. He may wind up being better than Boyd, but he also may wind up being John Ross 2.0. Might want to wait before making that proclamation.

You never know. He might be the greatest thing since sliced bread or he might be just sliced bread. John Ross was sliced bread from day one. For that to happen he would have had to have been drafted at a Harbor Freight 25% off coupon sale.  

[BFritz21]

(06-13-2024, 12:51 PM)Sled21 Wrote: Easy there cowboy, Tyler "the Raven killer" Boyd has been getting it done for years. Burton has yet to take a snap against an NFL defense. He may wind up being better than Boyd, but he also may wind up being John Ross 2.0. Might want to wait before making that proclamation.

Route running and physical abilities translate to the NFL as the same way they do in college. If anything, you can say that he'll be better in the NFL because Burrow will better be able to put the ball in better spots. 

Ross is a bad example because of all the injuries. 

My point is that he is unproven in the NFL and the talent is better, but he also played in the SEC, which is pretty much the NFL B League. 

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(06-13-2024, 01:10 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: but he also played in the SEC, which is pretty much the NFL B League. 

SEC WRs drafted in the 2nd or 3rd round over the last 3 years and how many yards they got their rookie season...

Jonathan Mingo - 418 yards
Jalin Hyatt - 373 yards
Cedric Tillman - 224 yards
Wan'Dale Robinson - 227 yards
John Metchie III - 0 yards
George Pickens - 801 yards
Velus Jones Jr - 103 yards
Elijah Moore - 538 yards
Terrace Marshall Jr - 138 yards
Josh Palmer - 353 yards
Anthony Schwartz - 135 yards

That's 1 out of 11 SEC WRs that we could argue would have be an improvement over Boyd. The worst NFL team would destroy the best SEC team in an absolute route.

[XenoMorph]

the potential is there.... And right now we are tied for first.. plenty of optimism to be had

[Soonerpeace]

(06-12-2024, 11:19 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: People like to say Burrow was only healthy for 5 games or whatever last year, and if you look at those games only, Boyd was on pace for 986 yards and 7 TDs. In 2022 Boyd had two 100+ yard games including a 155 yard game. He's not a scrub, his talent is there, he's just behind Chase and Higgins in the pecking order. Same way that Burton will be.

Even if Burton's talent is ahead of where he was drafted, lets look at 2nd round picks then. Of the 16 2nd round pick WRs drafted over the last 3 years only 6 of them reached 500 yards their rookie year. If we moved that up to just 600 yards (which still wouldn't be an upgrade over Boyd) that number drops to 4 out of 16 with one of those 4 at 611 yards.

The odds are Burton in his rookie year will not be an upgrade over Boyd. 

He will be more of a big play guy. No way is he as consistent or savvy.

[BFritz21]

(06-13-2024, 01:29 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: SEC WRs drafted in the 2nd or 3rd round over the last 3 years and how many yards they got their rookie season...

Jonathan Mingo - 418 yards
Jalin Hyatt - 373 yards
Cedric Tillman - 224 yards
Wan'Dale Robinson - 227 yards
John Metchie III - 0 yards
George Pickens - 801 yards
Velus Jones Jr - 103 yards
Elijah Moore - 538 yards
Terrace Marshall Jr - 138 yards
Josh Palmer - 353 yards
Anthony Schwartz - 135 yards

That's 1 out of 11 SEC WRs that we could argue would have be an improvement over Boyd. The worst NFL team would destroy the best SEC team in an absolute route.

None of them had Burrow throwing them the ball and Byron has a lot of big play ability.

A thing that I could see hurting him is Gesicki playing in the slot, but I think Burton will still get plenty of opportunities.

Burrow finally having protection means I think we have a lot of possessions, throw the ball a lot, and put up lots of points and yards.

I think Burton destroys all those receivers' numbers simply because of his big play ability and teams focused on stopping Chase and Higgins.

[Sled21]

(06-13-2024, 01:10 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: Route running and physical abilities translate to the NFL as the same way they do in college. If anything, you can say that he'll be better in the NFL because Burrow will better be able to put the ball in better spots. 

Ross is a bad example because of all the injuries. 

My point is that he is unproven in the NFL and the talent is better, but he also played in the SEC, which is pretty much the NFL B League. 

Ross forgot how to catch the ball after he started getting hit by NFL safeties. 

And, you seem to believe Burton will stay out of trouble off the field. I hope he does, but that is yet to be seen and he fell for that very reason. Boyd was a choirboy.