Reds July Game Thread 2024

[*bengalfan74*]

(08-01-2024, 06:11 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: He has the talent, just doesn't have the durability and mentality. Wouldn't be surprised if he goes back on the IL soon.

Even combining majors and minors innings (major league innings are more stressful by far) he only pitched 41.2 innings last year, 116.0 the year before, 50.2 the year before that, and 0 the year before that (COVID, no minor leagues). He's currently at 104.2 right now, nearly at a career high and 63 innings more than he pitched last year, and we just started August.

That sucks because he can be dominate, when in top form. Here's to hoping Lowder and Williamson or some of the others step up soon. 

[CJD]

(08-01-2024, 04:34 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: He's really starting to concern me. Couple month ago he looked like he was going to run away with the #1 starter job. And now he's getting knocked around all over the place.

What's up with him??

I will start by saying I'm not an expert on pitchers, so not all of this will be sourced by data, more on what I pick up by watching these players, but in my mind, there are two categories of pitchers:

1. Pitchers who can get you out by staying in the zone and just overpowering you.

2. Pitchers who rely on you chasing bad pitches to get you out.

I think Alexis Diaz's descent from shutdown closer to nightly heart attack causer is because he is a latter style of pitcher. He built his brand on getting guys to chase. But then, what happens when guys learn your pitching patterns and stop chasing your pitches?

A 5.9 walks per 9 rate (14.7% BB rate!)...

Diaz relied on getting guys to chase his deceptive pitches, but once they learned the tells or maybe just got more familiar with him, they stopped chasing as much, and he started having to put the ball in the strike zone more, which led to giving up more hits and more runs as well.

Now, hitters can literally just let Diaz pitch himself into a 3 ball count every at bat, and then tattoo the pitch that he now has to put in the zone.

I think a similar thing happened with Fernando Cruz. Remember early in the season, people were calling for him to be an all star with one of the best pitches in all of baseball (his splitter). Well...he hasn't been elite since April 29th, with bad numbers between April 29th and June 30th (4.88 ERA in 24 IP) and he's been an outright disaster since June 30th (9.00 ERA in 8 IP). They've basically stopped using him because they were no longer able to trust him in clutch situations.

And I think the reason is opponents stopped chasing that diving splitter as much, which made his strikeout rate drop and his walk rate skyrocket (5 BB and 21 K in 11.1 IP in April, 9 BB and 27K in 14.1 IP in May, 4 BB and 12K in 9.2 IP in June, before 6 BB and just 8K in 8 IP in July) for a season BB rate of 12.8%.

The reason I've remained bullish on Hunter Greene and why I support the selection of Chase Burns despite preferring Charlie Condon is they are both of the former variety. They have the fastball velocity to challenge hitters in the zone and, most of the time, come out victorious.

My fear is that Lodolo may be a pitcher of the latter type. His biggest highlights are when guys swing at that curveball that curves all the way into their back foot. It's a great highlight because it makes the hitters look stupid and makes you look like a genius pitcher.

But what happens when people stop swinging at that curve ball?

Apparently, a 6.67 ERA...

[*ochocincos*]

Talk about a disappointing month for the Reds.

They went into the ASB with 8-5 in July and an overall record of 47-50.
Some (inc. myself) were expecting (or at least hoping) the Reds would get back to a winning record by the end of July, finally turning the corner as players came back healthy and the bats getting going again.

But damn, now actually 4 games under .500 and 5.5 games out of the WC.

On top of that, they made basically no positive moves to improve their team for this year.

I don't foresee them turning it on now for the last 2 months of the season.

At least Bell's squad isn't as bad as the Price years, but man I miss the Dusty Baker years.
I'm tired of hovering around .500 every year.
They gotta add a proven bat this offseason and also promote Rece Hinds and cut bait with Benson for RF.
Maybe also figure out a better solution for 3B while Marte improves (or knocks off rust, whatever it is).
Some of the young guys who hit well last year not hitting very well this one - Steer, Marte, and Friedl specifically.

[*bengalfan74*]

(08-01-2024, 11:32 PM)CJD Wrote: My fear is that Lodolo may be a pitcher of the latter type. His biggest highlights are when guys swing at that curveball that curves all the way into their back foot. It's a great highlight because it makes the hitters look stupid and makes you look like a genius pitcher.

But what happens when people stop swinging at that curve ball?

Apparently, a 6.67 ERA...

I think you may be spot on about Lodolo

Hoping he can grow out of it.

[*bengalfan74*]

(08-02-2024, 03:20 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Talk about a disappointing month for the Reds.

They went into the ASB with 8-5 in July and an overall record of 47-50.
Some (inc. myself) were expecting (or at least hoping) the Reds would get back to a winning record by the end of July, finally turning the corner as players came back healthy and the bats getting going again.

But damn, now actually 4 games under .500 and 5.5 games out of the WC.

On top of that, they made basically no positive moves to improve their team for this year.

I don't foresee them turning it on now for the last 2 months of the season.

At least Bell's squad isn't as bad as the Price years, but man I miss the Dusty Baker years.
I'm tired of hovering around .500 every year.
They gotta add a proven bat this offseason and also promote Rece Hinds and cut bait with Benson for RF.
Maybe also figure out a better solution for 3B while Marte improves (or knocks off rust, whatever it is).
Some of the young guys who hit well last year not hitting very well this one - Steer, Marte, and Friedl specifically.

I know right

I had really high hopes for this season. Now don't get me wrong, I had no illusions we were gonna win World Series. But I thought we'd be waayyy more competitive.

It's been a real let down.

[*ochocincos*]

(08-02-2024, 04:38 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: I know right

I had really high hopes for this season. Now don't get me wrong, I had no illusions we were gonna win World Series. But I thought we'd be waayyy more competitive.

It's been a real let down.

Might have been unrealistic for some, but I expected a playoff appearance, maybe even advancing once depending on the opponent.

Unless they go like 34-20 or better the rest of the way, I don't see the playoffs happening.
32-22 would put them at 86-74, which was enough to get into the WC last year, but not the year prior.

Honestly, looking at the performances of the bigger FA signings this year for the Reds, none of Candelario, Montas, or Martinez really were THAT impactful.
It's been primarily dudes already in CIN like EDLC, Greene, Lodolo, and Abbott holdin down the fort.
I'd like for the Reds to really get an impactful person next offseason. Someone who can really get the runs going and/or someone who can really pitch lights-out most nights.
It still crushes me to see Sonny Gray as a Cardinal with a 10-6 record and 3.72 ERA. I wanted him over someone like Montas.

[cinci4life]

Interesting. France his not only in the lineup for the Reds for the first time but also in the clean up spot.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

Not looking great.

[Nicomo Cosca]

I’ve never seen a team give away so many outs on the base path.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(08-02-2024, 10:34 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: I’ve never seen a team give away so many outs on the base path.

"It won't change who we are."