Reds August Game Thread 2024

[*ochocincos*]

(08-07-2024, 04:49 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: If EDLC becomes anywhere near as good as we hope he is, and even IF he doesn't want to play in LA or NY (he does), the Reds aren't ever going to give him the 10yr/$400m or larger contract it takes to sign a young superstar player then. He's also a Scott Boras client, so it's not like he's not going to sign early for way less than he could get if he believes he will become a superstar. He's not a FA until 2030, which means he'll likely be on the Reds until at least 2029 before they trade him, so enjoy the 4-4.5 more years of him in a Reds uniform before he's gone.

EDLC is in the same Juan Soto category if he becomes as good as we think he will be, and Greene is already signed. There's nobody else they need to pay. 

They already have under team control...
Green until he's 30
Stephenson until he's 30
India until he's 30
Friedl until he's 33
Strand until he's 30
Steer until he's 31
Fraley until he's 32
Abbott until he's 31
Lodolo until he's 30

For whom are you saving up in order to pay?

- - - - - - -

"We wasted money on a bad player, why would we spend money on a good player?" isn't a great method to run a team. Lol

I never said they WOULD spend for a good player, I just said what I would hope they'd do in an ideal no-Soto FA-only scenario.

This doesn't really help, as it's not indicative of how many years each player is still under contract.
30 isn't that old in baseball like it is in football, no?
The only thing I think Reds are concerned about are how many years on their cheap rookie contracts for these guys.
That's their window.

Lodolo - Enters ARB1 year next year
Abbott - Still has 2 more years before ARB
Stephenson - ARB2 next year
McLain - Still has 2 more years before ARB
EDLC - Same as McLain
Steer - Enters final year before ARB next year
Friedl - Same as Steer
Fraley - ARB2 next year
CES - 2 more years before ARB
Marte - Same as CES

So Reds got Abbott, McLain, EDLC, Steer, Friedl, Marte, and CES on the super-cheap for 2025, some even through 2026.
And the rest who are entering ARB they could easily have for another couple years before a true veteran contract would kick in.

Realistically, 2025-2026 is their true window financially. If they're gonna get a bat or two, get for 2025/2026.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(08-07-2024, 04:57 PM)ochocincos Wrote: This doesn't really help, as it's not indicative of how many years each player is still under contract.
30 isn't that old in baseball like it is in football, no?
The only thing I think Reds are concerned about are how many years on their cheap rookie contracts for these guys.
That's their window.

Fair enough, so...

Green until he's 30 in 2029
Stephenson until he's 30 in 2027
India until he's 30 in 2027
Friedl until he's 33 in 2029
Strand until he's 30 in 2030
Steer until he's 31 in 2029
Fraley until he's 32 in 2027
Abbott until he's 31 in 2030
Lodolo until he's 30 in 2028

EDLC becomes a FA in 2030

There's just nobody we really need to sign right now other than possibly one guy who we won't/can't sign.

- - - - - -

As for 30 being old, largely yes.

Hitters are in real decline at 30, but if you start off good enough you have some leeway until you decline enough that you're bad. Guys like Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce, Todd Frazier, Adam Dunn, Sean Casey, were largely done being above-average hitters after 30. Guys like Joey Votto and Albert Pujols started off good enough that they could decline and still be good until they were 34 or so, and then they become a significantly lower caliber player. You might occasionally get a random year (Pujols' last year, Votto's 2021) but largely they're not the player they were anymore. Paul Goldschmidt is another who was a great hitter and after 34 fell straight down a cliff.

Hitters that aren't significantly above-average offensively generally aren't worth paying in their 30s. You'll see some hitters who are currently playing in their 30s who are good (Freeman seems to be holding strong at age 35 so we'll see next year), but that's largely a survivor bias because all the guys who trailed off aren't in the league anymore.

Felix Hernandez, Stephen Strasburg, and Johnny Cueto were all largely cooked after their age 30 season. Clayton Kershaw and Jacob DeGrom couldn't stay healthy after age 31. Madison Bumgardner after age 29. Corey Kluber, Cole Hamels, and David Price after age 32. There's many many more huge names of their time that just couldn't manage being very good in their mid-30s.

You'll find some occasional Adam Wainwrights, Zack Greinkes, Justin Verlanders, and Chris Sales, but that's remembering the outliers while forgetting the multitudes of their peers that vanished by the wayside long before.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(08-07-2024, 01:20 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: EDLC can't be the SS in 2025, he's going to have 30 errors this season.

Derek Jeter had 22 errors his first full season, and a few years later he had a season with 24.

Barry Larkin had a season early on with 29 errors.

If they move Elly so be it, but he makes up for a lot of those miscues by getting to balls that nobody else could. I think he’d be a stud just about anywhere they play him though with that speed and arm.

[cinci4life]

EDLC with the Aaron Judge treatment. Bell ejected but didn't go bat crazy. This is one of the times he had every right to go nuts given how bad that strike 3 call was.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

Can we just keep playing a series against the Marlins until October?

[*bengalfan74*]

(08-08-2024, 10:24 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Can we just keep playing a series against the Marlins until October?

It would be nice 

But I'm afraid it's back to reality now with the Brewers.

[Timanky12]

Reds need to win 2 out of every 3 games, the rest of the way, to have any chance of making the playoffs. That would give them 88 wins.

Don’t see that happening.

[cinci4life]

Adames always seems to kill us.

[*bengalfan74*]

Geez Spires getting rocked fast.

[Forever Spinning Vinyl]

Another toothless performance by an impotent offense.

[*bengalfan74*]

(08-10-2024, 10:16 PM)Forever Spinning Vinyl Wrote: Another toothless performance by an impotent offense.

Yes

Another one of their famous 3 hits or less games. Last night the Reds top 3 of the lineup went 0-12 with 5 K's. Tonight the top 3 again went 0-12 but with 9 K's ! I've been watching the Reds for a long, long, time. And I'm not sure I've ever seen a more inconsistent, weak, offense?

[cinci4life]

(08-10-2024, 11:16 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Yes

Another one of their famous 3 hits or less games. Last night the Reds top 3 of the lineup went 0-12 with 5 K's. Tonight the top 3 again went 0-12 but with 9 K's ! I've been watching the Reds for a long, long, time. And I'm not sure I've ever seen a more inconsistent, weak, offense?

Inconsistent most definitely but weak i would say not so much. They have a +39 run differential and only 5 games under .500. Weak would put them in the category with the White Sox, Marlins, and Rockies.

[Nicomo Cosca]

I don’t gamble, but if you do, and aren’t betting Milwaukee when they play the Reds what the hell are you doing?

[Timanky12]

(08-10-2024, 10:16 PM)Forever Spinning Vinyl Wrote: Another toothless performance by an impotent offense.

Maybe they need to take Viagra, to get more wood on the ball. Lol

[samhain]

(08-07-2024, 05:40 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Fair enough, so...

Green until he's 30 in 2029
Stephenson until he's 30 in 2027
India until he's 30 in 2027
Friedl until he's 33 in 2029
Strand until he's 30 in 2030
Steer until he's 31 in 2029
Fraley until he's 32 in 2027
Abbott until he's 31 in 2030
Lodolo until he's 30 in 2028

EDLC becomes a FA in 2030

There's just nobody we really need to sign right now other than possibly one guy who we won't/can't sign.

- - - - - -

As for 30 being old, largely yes.

Hitters are in real decline at 30, but if you start off good enough you have some leeway until you decline enough that you're bad. Guys like Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce, Todd Frazier, Adam Dunn, Sean Casey, were largely done being above-average hitters after 30. Guys like Joey Votto and Albert Pujols started off good enough that they could decline and still be good until they were 34 or so, and then they become a significantly lower caliber player. You might occasionally get a random year (Pujols' last year, Votto's 2021) but largely they're not the player they were anymore. Paul Goldschmidt is another who was a great hitter and after 34 fell straight down a cliff.

Hitters that aren't significantly above-average offensively generally aren't worth paying in their 30s. You'll see some hitters who are currently playing in their 30s who are good (Freeman seems to be holding strong at age 35 so we'll see next year), but that's largely a survivor bias because all the guys who trailed off aren't in the league anymore.

Felix Hernandez, Stephen Strasburg, and Johnny Cueto were all largely cooked after their age 30 season. Clayton Kershaw and Jacob DeGrom couldn't stay healthy after age 31. Madison Bumgardner after age 29. Corey Kluber, Cole Hamels, and David Price after age 32. There's many many more huge names of their time that just couldn't manage being very good in their mid-30s.

You'll find some occasional Adam Wainwrights, Zack Greinkes, Justin Verlanders, and Chris Sales, but that's remembering the outliers while forgetting the multitudes of their peers that vanished by the wayside long before.

You also have to weigh EDLC's skill set when considering his long-term viability.  He's catching up with plate discipline, but his speed is what makes him unicorn special, without a doubt.  He gets runs and bases that other players just can't.  He turns a lot of outs into singles and doubles into triples.  Opposing defenses get thrown off by the liability he creates after a usually innocuous walk.  

How's that going to work when he's 30?  I suppose the speed could linger a bit longer.  Rickey Henderson was about 90 years old when he started to slow down, but he also had a more compact and muscular build.  Elly is a lanky beanpole and that scares me when it comes to health.  

I'm not saying he's not worth paying into his 30's.  I am saying that he'll need to continue to improve a lot at the plate to justify the kind of money he's going to get no matter what we think.  He's a Ferrari straight off of the showroom floor right now, and he's driving his speed like he stole it.  I love watching it, but it seems like a young man's skill set more than a long term one.

[cinci4life]

Glad EDLC got a hit anyway but that should have been an automatic ball 4.

[cinci4life]

Marte has really turned his defense around big time!

[cinci4life]

Cuzzi having a rough game behind the plate. Feels like just a matter of time before someone gets tossed.

[cinci4life]

Well good news is Lodolo gets through his trouble inning untouched this time.

[Forever Spinning Vinyl]

I cannot wait until I can honestly say/type/hear the words "Former Reds manager David Bell".