All in mentality

[J24]

So, J22 brought up an interesting point in the training camp thoughts thread(page 8). About, how the FO refuses to make a big time trade and overly trust young players to fill big time roles.

I have mixed views on wether we should make big trades. Especially, considering that we have a generational talent at QB.

On one hand making a big trade would make our roster better in the now but on the other hand losing draft picks hurts our ability to help the team in the future.

[Bengalbug]

(08-09-2024, 12:41 AM)J24 Wrote: So, J22 brought up an interesting point in the training camp thoughts thread(page 8). About, how the FO refuses to make a big time trade and overly trust young players to fill big time roles.

I have mixed views on wether we should make big trades. Especially, considering that we have a generational talent at QB.

On one hand making a big trade would make our roster better in the now but on the other hand losing draft picks hurts our ability to help the team in the future.

The time to make a big trade has passed unless you are in the market for Brandon aiyuk.

That said, we could (objectively) look to add some help to the DE and CB area. Still some FAs that I think could bring something to the table. Below are the best available remaining I pulled from a list updated this week. Not sure about scheme fit, but still some solid options.

Yannick Ngakoue
Carl Lawson
Charles Harris
Tyus Bowser
Marquis Haynes
Shaq Lawson

Xavien Howard
Adoree’ Jackson
Stephon Gilmore
Patrick Peterson
J.C. Jackson
Ahkello Witherspoon
Keion Crossen
Eli Apple
Chandon Sullivan
Stantley Thomas-Oliver
Aaron Robinson

[NATI BENGALS]

I don't think so. A big trade would mean a big contract. We still have some big ones of our own that need to be handled. And we have a boatload of free agents next year. We are going to need those draft picks, giving up some of our early picks would hurt.

[NUGDUKWE]

I'm still worried about the defensive line depth. Chase wants paid and this is the reason he's not practicing correct? So if we have to pay him his big contract now and we absolutely should if that's what he wants how does that affect Tee? My point is if the season starts and we see any unexpected situations appear then I hope we pull the trigger and address them rather than waiting. Every year is potentially are year now and we should be doing all we can.

[Bilbo Saggins]

I could see it in the right situation. Maybe adding a running back in the last year of their deal. Or if there's a rash of injuries at one position, renting a player in a contract year. They shouldn't force it just to make a splash. They should keep an eye out for value. "If the price is right."

[Bengalbug]

With Juju about to get released, would we be open to bringing him in on a vet min contract as a 3rd WR?

This might be one of those scenarios where you sign him for a vet min and he still makes $7m from his former team.

[WeezyBengal]

You guys over value draft picks like the rest of the league.

Look at our drafts since the ZT era started. Other than the slam dunk cant miss picks (Burrow/Chase), what position players have we really hit on? Which players that we drafted are real IMPACT types of players?  

Higgins, Logan Wilson (maybe) Cam Taylor Britt (maybe), Pratt (maybe)...the rest it's too soon to tell.

This team (and the Super Bowl one) is/was pretty much built on free agency.

I am 10000% all for trading picks for known/proven commodities. Many of you will say "but what about the Burrow/Chase contracts? How will we ever manage??? We need those picks for young cheap talent!"

Those contracts are priced in. The Bengals know they are going to have to pay those guys and still went out and spent in free agency this year. The cap is only rising - it'll be fine. I promise. They left 20 million sitting there this year they haven't spent. That would have been nice to add to quality DL or CB depth, right? 

Go out and get me a solid defensive player and flip a second round pick.

[WeezyBengal]

(08-09-2024, 03:59 PM)Bengalbug Wrote: With Juju about to get released, would we be open to bringing him in on a vet min contract as a 3rd WR?

This might be one of those scenarios where you sign him for a vet min and he still makes $7m from his former team.

We are really going to add a body to our deepest/best position? 

[WeezyBengal]

(08-09-2024, 01:25 AM)NATI BENGALS Wrote: I don't think so. A big trade would mean a big contract. We still have some big ones of our own that need to be handled. And we have a boatload of free agents next year. We are going to need those draft picks,  giving up some of our early picks would hurt.

Who are you worried about losing? BJ Hill and Mike Hilton? 

Tee leaves this year. You open up 25 million in cap space. Cap goes up another 20 million next year. Resign both those guys if you want. Hill is overpaid anyway IMO. 

Trading a pick means you get a quality player. Fills a hole. Problem solved. 

[KillerGoose]

It's all about risk management in my eyes. Winning a Super Bowl is hard. If the Bengals made an "all in" type trade, how much does it improve their chances? If you look at betting odds for the SB winner, the Chiefs lead at +500. This line carries an implied probability of 16%. So, the Chiefs have an estimated 16% chance of winning the Super Bowl as the "top dog". The Bengals are at +1600 which converts to 6%. Let's say they make a big trade and nab Surtain who would almost certainly cost at least a first round pick. How much does this help Cincinnati? Do their chances even crack 10% at that point? Is a 4% increase in probability worth giving up a first round pick and then some potentially? Not really. You play the long steady game making smart moves to improve your odds. There is actually some really simple math to demonstrate this.

Over the last two seasons, the Bengals pre-season odds for winning the Super Bowl average out to 7%. If Cincinnati stays this consistent for the next five seasons, they have roughly a 30% chance of winning at least one Super Bowl.

1-0.93^5 = 0.304

Making a big splash trade helps their chances immediately, but the needle isn't moved all that much. Would Cincinnati be able to afford the big contract or would they have to lose key players in order to do so? Would this just be a rental? What's the impact of losing the draft capital when you have a cap hungry QB? IMO making low/mid-tier trades if the opportunity presents itself is the much smarter move but I think this is an example of why big trades are so exceedingly rare in the NFL. It just isn't worth it.

[*ochocincos*]

(08-09-2024, 01:17 AM)Beng albug Wrote: The time to make a big trade has passed unless you are in the market for Brandon aiyuk.  

I agree with this.

The time to go "all in" was at the start of FA and get a true game changer.

Sheldon Rankins, a 30 year old DT who had only had more than 4.0 sacks in a season twice in his 8-year career, was the biggest FA signing from a $$ perspective at just $12.25 mill APY.

The most impactful FA might end up being Geno Stone, but he didn't become a full-time starter until his 4th season and then he hit FA coming off his best year by far. Is last year going to be the norm or the exception?
I think of guys like Uzomah or Hurst where they had a good year with Bengals then signed for big elsewhere, only to (vastly) underperform. This past offseason, both got released and playing on very cheap contracts (again).

I think a guy like Michael Onwenu or Noah Fant instead of Trent Brown and Mike Gesicki would have felt more like going all-in.
Bengals will get the last laugh though if Brown and/or Gesicki end up performing way above what they signed for.

I wouldn't bother making a trade at this point unless an injury happens to a key guy and the depth is not good to fill in.

[BengalBob]

(08-09-2024, 03:59 PM)Bengalbug Wrote: With Juju about to get released, would we be open to bringing him in on a vet min contract as a 3rd WR?

This might be one of those scenarios where you sign him for a vet min and he still makes $7m from his former team.

Why would we even consider this?  He's washed. 

He'd be our 8th WR

[*ochocincos*]

(08-09-2024, 03:59 PM)Bengalbug Wrote: With Juju about to get released, would we be open to bringing him in on a vet min contract as a 3rd WR?

This might be one of those scenarios where you sign him for a vet min and he still makes $7m from his former team.

Only to see Bell light him up again in a practice like he did in the game a few years ago.

F JuJu S***-Poopster

[Bengalbug]

(08-09-2024, 04:03 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: We are really going to add a body to our deepest/best position? 

lol, these comments are funny. The “all in mentality” to go with vets over unproven and young players. But the first name brought up, whose worst season is better than anyone behind our top two… is dismissed.

This whole thread is hilarious .

Deepest and best position group… with little to nothing behind our top 2 players.

Makes sense.

[Bengalbug]

(08-09-2024, 04:28 PM)BengalBob Wrote: Why would we even consider this?  He's washed. 

He'd be our 8th WR

Him being washed, with bad qb play, was still more productive than anyone not named tee or Jamar.

FWIW.

In the spirit of being all in and not relying on unproven guys.

[WeezyBengal]

(08-09-2024, 05:06 PM)Bengalbug Wrote: lol, these comments are funny.  The “all in mentality” to go with vets over unproven and young players.  But the first name brought up, whose worst season is better than anyone behind our top two… is dismissed.

This whole thread is hilarious .

Deepest and best position group… with little to nothing behind our top 2 players.

Makes sense.

Which WR are you dropping from this roster in order to add JuJu? Charlie Jones, Jamar, Higgins, Yoshi, Burton, etc... 

[NATI BENGALS]

(08-09-2024, 04:05 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: Who are you worried about losing? BJ Hill and Mike Hilton? 

Tee leaves this year. You open up 25 million in cap space. Cap goes up another 20 million next year. Resign both those guys if you want. Hill is overpaid anyway IMO. 

Trading a pick means you get a quality player. Fills a hole. Problem solved. 

Roughly 16 guys who I think could make the team will be unrestricted free agents after the season.

Seems like a lot of roster churn. We have only our 7 picks that im aware of.

Right now spotrac says we are set to have roughly 47 million to spend next year. If we pay Money Mac, Chase, and Hendrickson that’s going to eat up a big chunk of that. If Higgins has a monster year and we tag him again. Cap space is gone.

[Bengalbug]

(08-09-2024, 05:10 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: Which WR are you dropping from this roster in order to add JuJu? Charlie Jones, Jamar, Higgins, Yoshi, Burton, etc... 

Go back to the OP.

“So, J22 brought up an interesting point in the training camp thoughts thread(page 8). About, how the FO refuses to make a big time trade and overly trust young players to fill big time roles.”

You are speaking out of both sides. You want to rely on young guys in big time role WR3, but you want to bring in proven vets.

I’m not sure who they wouldn’t, but the fact is… no one after wr1 and wr2 has proven they are even as good as “washed” juju.

[Bengalbug]

(08-09-2024, 05:10 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: Which WR are you dropping from this roster in order to add JuJu? Charlie Jones, Jamar, Higgins, Yoshi, Burton, etc... 

If we are tying to win now, juju is likely a bigger contributor in 2024 over Charlie jones.

[NATI BENGALS]

(08-09-2024, 05:52 PM)Bengalbug Wrote: If we are tying to win now, juju is likely a bigger contributor in 2024 over Charlie jones.

Juju is doo-doo.

The Patriots WR depth chart is horrible. And they are eating like 9 million in dead cap just to get juju off of their team. After only one year of a three year deal. If a team with terrible WRs doesn’t want him why in the world would we?