Has Chase peaked

[*rfaulk34*]

(09-19-2024, 12:27 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: If you read my original post, I based it on after a great game  on 10/8 against Arizona, since then 12 games that Chase has played ( i took out last game of year since he just got in for a small amount is) so he has scored 3 TDs in those 12 games and averaged 68 yards.  The Tds are  down , the average yards is good but again not what we expect from a guy that is looking at being the highest paid player .   With a healthy Burrow and Washington and Carolina next two games, i think we have to expect better from Chase, if not then we really are low barring production from our top tier WR

35  62  41 64 29  149 81 12 124 41 100 80

This is what you said, word for word. "I hope he starts playing to that level but you have to admit it has been a while since he put "elite" numbers together over a stretch of games"


Anyone can take a portion of any batch of numbers and make them look good or bad to fit their agenda. I simply took a portion of a batch that proves what you said is false.

[Whatever]

*shakes head*

Folks are focused on raw stats and not on where the stats come from.

I've heard names like Lamb and Hill invoked. Ceedee Lamb had 181 Targets last year. Hill 170. So, those guys are getting 10-11 passes thrown to them a game. Chase has 11 Targets in two games so far this year. If you're expecting Lamb/Hill production, then you're expecting him to be theoretically twice as good as those guys given the number of balls he sees a game. And Chase has a catch % of over 90% so far, so there's not a ton more he can he do with what he's being given.

Zac runs, hate to say it, a very passive passing scheme. He wants the QB to take what the defense gives him. He doesn't make much effort to try to "scheme guys open.". That passive system only works when you have the talent out there to take advantage. Looking at our other WR's, Yoshi has 10 Targets, is only catching 50% of them, and averages a pathetic 3.3 Yards/Target. Irwin has 8 Targets, a 25% catch %, and a sickening 1.8 Yards/Target. That's frankly pathetic. Neither is a starting NFL caliber WR. I doubt either could even make the roster of half the teams in the league. But they are getting significant looks in this offense.

[Mer]

So what happens when Higgins comes back and his numbers don't increase to where folks expect? Is it because he now has to share balls with Tee or is it "He's Peaked"?

Truthfully, I hope Tee comes back and Chase looks like the old Chase of 2-3 years ago, but I just don't think his head is in it with the contract on his mind. It's sad really. He's already a millionaire and is going to get paid eventually. An NFL career is so short and he's wasting games in the prime of his career (unless he's already peaked) worrying about something that is going to work itself out. Also, if I'm in the front office I'm not paying him big bucks if he continues his struggles this year and I'm using that in negotiations. These WR contracts are going to eventually end up like the RB contracts did and the team left paying these crazy high contracts is going to regret they ever signed them.


I'd prefer they go out and sign the best available OL in the off season no matter the price and find WR's that are on the latter part of their career but are still good players that will sign reasonable 1-2 year contracts.  I still believe winning starts in the trenches.

[Timanky12]

Chase has turned into a decoy for this team. Just run down the sideline and take 2 DB’s with him, and hope someone else gets open.

[Frank Booth]

(09-19-2024, 03:18 PM)Timanky12 Wrote: Chase has turned into a decoy for this team. Just run down the sideline and take 2 DB’s with him, and hope someone else gets open.

thats not a winning recipe with this supporting cast. Until Tee comes back, of course

[Lucius Cincinnatus]

(09-19-2024, 02:04 PM)Whatever Wrote: *shakes head*

Folks are focused on raw stats and not on where the stats come from.

I've heard names like Lamb and Hill invoked.  Ceedee Lamb had 181 Targets last year.  Hill 170.  So, those guys are getting 10-11 passes thrown to them a game.  Chase has 11 Targets in two games so far this year.  If you're expecting Lamb/Hill production, then you're expecting him to be theoretically twice as good as those guys given the number of balls he sees a game.  And Chase has a catch % of over 90% so far, so there's not a ton more he can he do with what he's being given.

Zac runs, hate to say it, a very passive passing scheme.  He wants the QB to take what the defense gives him.  He doesn't make much effort to try to "scheme guys open.". That passive system only works when you have the talent out there to take advantage.  Looking at our other WR's, Yoshi has 10 Targets, is only catching 50% of them, and averages a pathetic 3.3 Yards/Target.  Irwin has 8 Targets, a 25% catch %, and a sickening 1.8 Yards/Target.  That's frankly pathetic.  Neither is a starting NFL caliber WR.  I doubt either could even make the roster of half the teams in the league.   But they are getting significant looks in this offense.

You can't simply point to more/less targets to justify differences in production. Maybe part of the reason why he isn't getting 10-11 targets per game is because he isn't getting open enough. 

Maybe he deserves more targets because he is open, but it's not that black and white. 

[Whatever]

(09-19-2024, 03:55 PM)Lucius Cincinnatus Wrote: You can't simply point to more/less targets to justify differences in production. Maybe part of the reason why he isn't getting 10-11 targets per game is because he isn't getting open enough. 

Maybe he deserves more targets because he is open, but it's not that black and white. 

I think the point that the film backs up is he's constantly doubled and the coaches aren't doing much to get him into better matchups and while Burrow earlier in his career would just stick it in there regardless(having a higher Interception % in the process), that isn't happening anymore.  That could be a confidence issue with the wrist or a coaching directive.  The coaches are ok having Burrow toss it to overmatched guys like Yoshi, Irwin, etc. that have single coverage.

[Essex Johnson]

(09-19-2024, 12:30 PM)mhbsavant Wrote: The Bengals and the coach scheme has regressed! 4 years and they still can't beat Cover 2 LOLOLOLOL

If Chase was on the Dolphins or chiefs it would be SO UNFAIR!!!!!!!!

The Bengals just dont care enough or they have too much pride to inprove things! If you are not copying you are not trying! They should be implementing and copying the schemes around the league. I would like to see Chase on another team, as much as I hate saying that, but it would prove yall wrong, easily!!!!!!!

How do you know it is not Chase that was regressed to teams playing him different? Hmm

[XsandOs]

It is too early to definitively say yes or no. However; catching 10 of 11 targets, suggest he has not peaked.

The number of looks/targets a receiver gets, doesn't always correlate with whether he is open or not. It is directly related to where he is on the progression and whether the receivers earlier in the progression are open or not. Additionally; it is highly likely that Chase is being asked to roll the high safety to clear the hash/middle.

Gesicki has 13 targets, Iosivas has 10 and Irwin has 8. Given that Gesicki has received the most targets says alot about Chase's numbers - highlighting the high low coverages used against him.

Ultimately; getting Tee back will open the looks for Chase more. Especially if Tee is in X and Chase can line up off the line in trips and motion to weakside. Then its a pick your poison deal.

Currently, Burrow is is taking the first come first served approach - as he should, and it is quite possible that Chase is not his first read on most plays.

[NUGDUKWE]

(09-19-2024, 05:02 PM)Whatever Wrote: I think the point that the film backs up is he's constantly doubled and the coaches aren't doing much to get him into better matchups and while Burrow earlier in his career would just stick it in there regardless(having a higher Interception % in the process), that isn't happening anymore.  That could be a confidence issue with the wrist or a coaching directive.  The coaches are ok having Burrow toss it to overmatched guys like Yoshi, Irwin, etc. that have single coverage.

I think week 1 Chase had looks that we've seen turn into touchdowns but Burrow didn't throw the ball for whatever reason probably not playing in any games for an extended period plus the wrist. Last week the Chiefs doubled him but that's really what they have been doing so it seemed we expected it and had a gameplan of targeting TEs underneath more.

[Brownshoe]

I think that our other receivers don't scare anyone, so they double and triple Chase right now. When Higgins comes back, or Burton/Iosivas step up Chase will be able to do more. It's also the inability from Zac to make draw up plays to get Chase open as well.

[Essex Johnson]

(09-19-2024, 08:46 PM)Brownshoe Wrote: I think that our other receivers don't scare anyone, so they double and triple Chase right now. When Higgins comes back, or Burton/Iosivas step up Chase will be able to do more. It's also the inability from Zac to make draw up plays to get Chase open as well.

What Minn receivers scare anyone , look at Jefferson #  or Adam's from Raiders ... we could say that for a few WR1s...

[Brownshoe]

(09-19-2024, 08:51 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: What Minn receivers scare anyone , look at Jefferson #  or Adam's from Raiders ... we could say that for a few WR1s...

Zac isn't their HC either. When was the last time you remember Zac drawing up a good play for Chase? I can't remember one in a while tbh.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(09-19-2024, 08:51 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: What Minn receivers scare anyone , look at Jefferson #  or Adam's from Raiders ... we could say that for a few WR1s...

Jordan Addison had over 900 Yards & 10 TD’s as a rookie for Minnesota. Not to mention having a TE that put up almost 1k yards in Hockenson.

Adams numbers were down big time last season between poor QB play and lack of surrounding weapons. Now they have Brock Browers.

[Frank Booth]

(09-19-2024, 08:51 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: What Minn receivers scare anyone , look at Jefferson #  or Adam's from Raiders ... we could say that for a few WR1s...

Jordan Addison

[*bfine32*]

So.......JaMarr benefits from having Tee on the other side. I know a few who asserted he'd put up better numbers without Tee

[Nicomo Cosca]

(09-19-2024, 10:20 PM)bfine32 Wrote: So.......JaMarr benefits from having Tee on the other side. I know a few who asserted he'd put up better numbers without Tee

I have to admit, I thought Chase’s targets would go up without Tee. It’s frustrating to see Zac & Joe let other teams dictate what they do by “taking what the defense gives them.”

[Nicomo Cosca]

Bengals are 15-4 when Chase has 10+ targets pic.twitter.com/rmFpgKDbeA

— Ace Boogie (@NewStripeCity) September 19, 2024

That seems good.

[Brownshoe]

(09-19-2024, 11:08 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote:

Bengals are 15-4 when Chase has 10+ targets pic.twitter.com/rmFpgKDbeA

— Ace Boogie (@NewStripeCity) September 19, 2024

That seems good.

Man, when I read stuff like that it just makes me even more frustrated at Taylor. I'm sure you can't always just force the ball into your star receivers' hands, but I feel like he makes no serious effort to really build routes to help Chase get the ball more often.

[J24]

(09-19-2024, 11:08 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote:

Bengals are 15-4 when Chase has 10+ targets pic.twitter.com/rmFpgKDbeA

— Ace Boogie (@NewStripeCity) September 19, 2024

That seems good.

The last time Chase had 10 largest or more and lost was October, 10, 2022! Since then the Bengals are 11-0 when he gets 10 or more targets.