Bengals Win Out + Colts Beat the Broncos... We are all potentially 10-7, AND WE IN?

[MC Howley]

Hear me out....

Crunching the numbers over here fellas, and I am 99% sure I am correct here…. So if we win out, which includes dubs over the Broncos and Colts… and the Colts beat the Broncos…and all the three teams win out outside of those games against each other..... we all end up 10-7. ? And in a three team tie breaker... in that scenario, we win the tie breaker.

So with that, if every team is 10-6 going into the last game of the season, it comes down to the following.

(1) Broncos vs. Chiefs

(2) Colts vs. Jaguars

(3) Bengals vs. Steelers

In this scenario... if all the teams win and are 10-7... the Bengals win the tie breaker, because the first tie breaker, is head to head records vs. the tied opponents. See list and link below.

PS - The Dolphins schedule looks super hard as well to note, so mark them out. Pats, Packers (in Lambeau), Jets, 49ers, Texans, etc.

So does our entire season come down to hypothetically.. us needing Anthony Richardson (or Flacco... revenge game?), to beat the Broncos in Denver on 12/15?

Conference Tie Breakers: (https://www.nfl.com/standings/tie-breaking-procedures)

Tiebreaker Procedure for Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after one or more clubs are eliminated in any step, the tiebreaker process restarts at Step 1 of the two-club format. If three clubs remain tied after a fourth club is eliminated, the tiebreaker process restarts at Step 1 of the three-club format.)

(1) Head-to-head record (best won-lost-tied percentage in games played among the tied clubs).
(2) Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
(3) Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
(4) Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
(5) Strength of victory in all games.
(6) Strength of schedule in all games.
(7) Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
(8) Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
(9) Best net points in common games.
(10) Best net points in all games.
(11) Best net touchdowns in all games.
(12) Coin toss (if all other tiebreakers fail).

[Frank Booth]

a couple posters proposed that anyone who makes "we still have a chance" threads should be banned for a week.

Your call, mods

[MC Howley]

(11-18-2024, 06:46 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: a couple posters proposed that anyone who makes "we still have a chance" threads should be banned for a week.

Your call, mods

I mean.... we do have a chance. 

[Gohards]

The season is over. Time to move onto what draft picks we are going to whiff on.

[RegularGuy22]

Give it up will ya?

[Timanky12]

(11-18-2024, 06:42 PM)MC Howley Wrote: Hear me out....

Crunching the numbers over here fellas, and I am 99% sure I am correct here…. So if we win out, which includes dubs over the Broncos and Colts… and the Colts beat the Broncos…and all the three teams win out outside of those games against each other..... we all end up 10-7. ? And in a three team tie breaker... in that scenario, we win the tie breaker.

So with that, if every team is 10-6 going into the last game of the season, it comes down to the following.

(1) Broncos vs. Chiefs

(2) Colts vs. Jaguars

(3) Bengals vs. Steelers

In this scenario... if all the teams win and are 10-7... the Bengals win the tie breaker, because the first tie breaker, is head to head records vs. the tied opponents. See list and link below.

PS - The Dolphins schedule looks super hard as well to note, so mark them out. Pats, Packers (in Lambeau), Jets, 49ers, Texans, etc.

So does our entire season come down to hypothetically.. us needing Anthony Richardson (or Flacco... revenge game?), to beat the Broncos in Denver on 12/15?

Conference Tie Breakers: (https://www.nfl.com/standings/tie-breaking-procedures)

Tiebreaker Procedure for Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after one or more clubs are eliminated in any step, the tiebreaker process restarts at Step 1 of the two-club format. If three clubs remain tied after a fourth club is eliminated, the tiebreaker process restarts at Step 1 of the three-club format.)

(1) Head-to-head record (best won-lost-tied percentage in games played among the tied clubs).
(2) Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
(3) Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
(4) Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
(5) Strength of victory in all games.
(6) Strength of schedule in all games.
(7) Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
(8) Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
(9) Best net points in common games.
(10) Best net points in all games.
(11) Best net touchdowns in all games.
(12) Coin toss (if all other tiebreakers fail).

That takes a lot of nerve to post that. We haven’t won more than 2 in a row, and you think we have a chance to win out.  We have a better chance to lose out than win out.  No way we beat the Steelers twice, so the season is over right there. 

[basballguy]

(11-18-2024, 06:46 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: a couple posters proposed that anyone who makes "we still have a chance" threads should be banned for a week.

Your call, mods

Gatekeeping what people can talk about seems a bit silly.  Hopefully it doesn't go that way.  

[JRBengals]

With all due respect, this isn’t a team that would win it all based on what we’ve seen this season, we wouldn’t touch Goff or the Lions offense. So what’s the difference with a season being done today vs January?

I’d rather it be done now and things changed within the organisation (??), then have a failed playoff appearance and pick 18+ where we absolutely suck at drafting by the way.

[MC Howley]

The same group of people in here telling me not to say these ideas or think about these same scenarios, are the same type of negative Debby downers... who were telling everyone during the Super Bowl run... "you don't deserve to be here"... "get off our bandwagon"...."we earned this, our life is so hard!"

I am a real fan.

And I just watched Joe Burrow torch a team and almost make an insane comeback, again.

Yes it's depressing.

But its also insane to think we can't beat Russell Wilson twice, Cooper Rush, Will Levis, Anthony Richardson, Jameis Winston, and Bo Nix.

Fig Newton looked like a DOG.

Jenkins looked like a beast.

The defense was making some stops.... and we are about to now have Tee fully loaded and ready to go after a big performance, our best offensive lineman back, Charlie Jones back, Rankins, etc.

How can we not have optimism?

Look at our offense and these remaining teams we are playing,. We got this.

[BengalYankee]

(11-18-2024, 06:58 PM)JRBengals Wrote: With all due respect, this isn’t a team that would win it all based on what we’ve seen this season, we wouldn’t touch Goff or the Lions offense. So what’s the difference with a season being done today vs January?

I’d rather it be done now and things changed within the organisation (??), then have a failed playoff appearance and pick 18+ where we absolutely suck at drafting by the way.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

*Have only beaten the 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 8th worst teams in the NFL all year (combined 9-31 record, .225 win%).*
"Hey, we can go on a 6 game winning streak!"

I'm not going to be holding my breath.

[Nepa]

"if wishes were fishes..."

[Millhouse]

You lost me at 'Bengals Win Out'.

[*ochocincos*]

I have Colts going 4-2 the rest of the way. Beat Pats, Titans, Giants, Jags. Losses to Denver and Detroit.
They have a pretty easy schedule to get to 9-8, if not 10-7 if they can beat DEN.

I have Denver getting at least 2 wins.
Wins against Raiders and Browns, which puts them at at least 8 wins.
Assume they lose to the Chiefs at the end of the year if the Chiefs don't rest their starters.
Assume loss to the Chargers and Bengals because the Bengals have to beat DEN to make the playoffs.
We actually could want DEN to beat IND if IND does indeed get 4 other wins.
If so, I could see them also at 9-8.

Bengals do have a VERY slim chance to get in at 9-8.
But the only loss they can suffer is to DAL.
How it would work:
DEN, IND, and CIN all at 9-8.
DEN has to beat IND, and CIN has to beat DEN.
CIN gets in due to AFC tiebreakers.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

[*michaelsean*]

Win out? What about 4-7 suggests that’s possible? It’s over. Time to lose out so Duke can get a top ten pick and act like he knows what the eff he is doing.

[Fan_in_Kettering]

You think we can beat the Steelers twice? How about once?

[MC Howley]

(11-18-2024, 07:36 PM)michaelsean Wrote: Win out?  What about 4-7 suggests that’s possible?  It’s over. Time to lose out so Duke can get a top ten pick and act like he knows what the eff he is doing.

Joe Burrow?

[phil413]

(11-18-2024, 06:46 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: a couple posters proposed that anyone who makes "we still have a chance" threads should be banned for a week.

Your call, mods

I'm all for giving a warning shot and offering grace but the fact that I read that subject title with Zac Taylor's voice in my head means so be it. 

[*ochocincos*]

(11-18-2024, 07:36 PM)michaelsean Wrote: Win out?  What about 4-7 suggests that’s possible?  It’s over. Time to lose out so Duke can get a top ten pick and act like he knows what the eff he is doing.

Likely losing both games to Steelers, or at least the first one.
The last game of the season maybe if PIT has their playoff spot locked and doesn't care about the last game.
But it's PIT, so they'll probably play starters just to keep CIN out of the playoffs.

I hate to admit it, but PIT seems to be a legit threat. Their elite defense and good running game is helping cover up a lackluster passing game.

[Destro]

Seek help