2024 Defensive Personnel Failures

[bengalsboy]

(12-02-2024, 03:15 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: Gonna take 2 seasons to fix the issues with this team more than likely

We’re in the 2006-2008 period unfortunately

Disagree.With a good draft,and free agent acquisitions.A defense,or offense,can get turned around in one offseason.
i

[Timanky12]

(12-02-2024, 03:15 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: Gonna take 2 seasons to fix the issues with this team more than likely

We’re in the 2006-2008 period unfortunately

We have 2 years with playoff wins over the last 34 years. I think you’re over estimating how fast they can correct this defense and OL. It will take years of drafts with personnel who know what they are doing. I wouldn’t hold my breathe. By the time this defense gets fixed, Burrow and Chase will be long gone.

[Timanky12]

I think this article sums up our DC and defensive players exactly.

Overestimating personal knowledge and ability
Following the thread from our previous point on confirmation bias, there’s a counter-intuitive twist in the story of repeating mistakes: the overestimation of our own knowledge and ability, often referred to as the Dunning-Kruger effect.

This phenomenon describes a situation where individuals with limited knowledge or competence in a certain area greatly overestimate their own expertise.

Essentially, they don’t know what they don’t know. This cognitive bias can create a false sense of confidence, leading people to make the same mistakes without realizing their lack of understanding or skill.

For instance, someone might repeatedly attempt to fix a complex problem at work using the same flawed approach, each time expecting a different result.

They believe they have the necessary skills and knowledge, despite evidence to the contrary. This misplaced confidence can prevent them from seeking advice, further training, or considering alternative strategies that could lead to a successful outcome.

The irony here is that a little self-doubt can actually be beneficial. It can encourage us to question our assumptions, seek out additional information, and consider that there might be something important we’re overlooking.

[3wt]

(12-02-2024, 03:06 PM)Sled21 Wrote: Hubbard has been playing the entire season hurt. Whether that is a good idea or not is another matter. Losing Sample for the season hurt as well. Murphy is not living up to his expectations. I still have hopes for Ossai, and he had a nice field goal block yesterday. Haven't seen that in awhile. Stone should be shown the door, he brings nothing to the table. Same with Rankins. I think Jenkins and Jackson will develop into decent tackles. 

I agree regarding Hubbard.  And Rankins has never looked this bad in his career.  Makes me suspect an injury.   Just not like him at all.

Jenkins looked good at the beginning of the Steeler's game.  Then he got hurt (ankle?) and was ineffective the rest of the day.

We'll have to see.  But I see no benefit in rolling Hubbard out there.   Put Murphy out and keep him out and see if he turns up the heat.

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(Yesterday, 11:15 AM)3wt Wrote: I agree regarding Hubbard.  And Rankins has never looked this bad in his career.  Makes me suspect an injury.   Just not like him at all.

Jenkins looked good at the beginning of the Steeler's game.  Then he got hurt (ankle?) and was ineffective the rest of the day.

We'll have to see.  But I see no benefit in rolling Hubbard out there.   Put Murphy out and keep him out and see if he turns up the heat.

Absolutely agree. Just use Hubbard here and there to give a breather to Murphy/Ossai. Or....just shut him down completely and use Johnson.

[lone bengal]

Brining in a new DC should be priority #1 at least it gives you a chance to see if a new a scheme and voice could help any of these young guy's produce. At DL cutting Hubbard/ Rankins should be a no brainer. Roll with the young guys Murphy, Jenkins, Jackson. Also cutting Stone should be an easy one along with cutting Cappa we could use that money to sign some FA's on D.

[*Synric*]

(Yesterday, 12:28 AM)bfine32 Wrote: Folks are mad, you just gotta let 'em vent. 

This team can easily turn it around next year, I think most folks outside of the MB know this. 

It might sound cliche but Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase raise the floor of this roster so much so that something as simple as tackling better on defense and better kicking they could be above .500. If I gambled Bengals making a comeback in 2025 would be an excellent bet.

[*bfine32*]

(Yesterday, 01:50 PM)Synric Wrote: It might sound cliche but Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase raise the floor of this roster so much so that something as simple as tackling better on defense and better kicking they could be above .500. If I gambled Bengals making a comeback in 2025 would be an excellent bet.

We have the league leaders in:

Passing Yards

Rushing Yards

Sacks

The current team is so close even with the crappy players that if Mac would have been good we'd be in a playoff spot right now. 

It's why it's such news nationally that we're losing. Folks know the talent on this team.

[*ochocincos*]

(12-02-2024, 05:08 PM)Synric Wrote: Rosters churn yearly going from bad to good happens a ton in the NFL. Every. Single. Year.

And many did not think in the 2021 offseason the Bengals did enough to win a playoff game, let alone get the Super Bowl, yet they did.
Sometimes FA and drafts may surprise us, even if they don't like quite amazing on paper.

Bengals traditionally don't make splashy moves, but every now and then they hit on guys.

[samhain]

(12-02-2024, 03:58 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: Too many optimists here

“The bengals will fix it in 1 season!”

ok I guess you have faith in the front office and coaching staff lol

Depends on your definition of "fix". Nobody thinks they'll be a top 10 or 15 defense next year.  

Can they not be the worst in the league?  Can they be not good but also not bad enough to screw up games for an offense that puts up 30 plus points routinely?  I don't think that those are super-high bars to set.  

[*ochocincos*]

(Yesterday, 05:33 PM)samhain Wrote: Depends on your definition of "fix". Nobody thinks they'll be a top 10 or 15 defense next year.  

Can they not be the worst in the league?  Can they be not good but also not bad enough to screw up games for an offense that puts up 30 plus points routinely?  I don't think that those are super-high bars to set.  

Things I think they should be able to cover with relative ease:
- WR2 replacement for Higgins (doesn't have to be a 1000+ yard WR, but should be able to get a 700+ yard guy)
- Re-sign Gesicki or a TE to replace him

Things I think they'll have to be smart about but is realistic to do based on FA/draft talent:
- New FS (some FA options and a few good draft prospects who are athletic, fast, and talented enough to be a true center fielder type)
- More pass rush (the draft looks great for pass rush, IMO)
- Better DB performance overall (just maybe add a cheaper vet CB, don't need to invest another 1st or 2nd round pick at CB...yet)
- Improved IOL

Things I don't think will really happen unless they maybe change up defensive scheme/gameplan:
- Vastly improved run defense

Kris Jenkins and McKinnley Jackson were supposed to be good run defenders. That was their strength coming out of college. It might be Anarumo's defense they are struggling in.
Hendrickson was never a good run defender.
Hubbard is usually a good run defender, but his injury could be affecting him maybe he gets closer to good in that category again after an offseason of recovery.

[NotBigzo]

(Yesterday, 01:00 AM)Gohards Wrote: There is typically a couple teams that go from bad to “good”

But rarely ever, does a team go from say a 6 wins or less (which is right around what were projected to finish) to a super bowl contender.

Denvers probably going to make the, but theyre not winning anything

The chargers are more than likely going to the playoffs, but i dont see them getting passed the divisional round.

The commanders are more than likely playoff bound. Does anybody seriously see them competing for a super bowl?

Yes.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(12-02-2024, 01:06 PM)ochocincos Wrote: It's no secret the biggest contributor for this letdown of a season is the defense.
They did allow a ton of yards last year (31st in yards allowed) but 21st in Point Allowed.
Compare that to 2022 when they were 6th in Points Allowed, 16th in Yards Allowed.
However, they've hit a new low with some key veteran departures and new guys replacing them - 31st in Points Allowed, 27th in Yards Allowed.

Key changes in 2024:
Rankins - Basically a waste of a signing. He may not quite be on the level of Trae Waynes bad signing, but he's gotta be up there.
Stone - Dude can't cover for s**t, nor tackle. 16 missed tackles, 103.7 passer rating allowed. While Hill was also bad in coverage last year, he didn't have nearly as many missed tackles.
Bell - A shell of himself. Should have left Battle starting at SS the entire season and maybe have Bell as backup or something.
Jenkins - Kind of a letdown for a 2nd round DT. He's doing ok, but not offering much pass rush. Only 7 total pressures in 177 pass rush reps.
Jackson - Preseason injury slowed his progression, but he has 6 total pressures on 80 pass rush reps.

The Awuzie departure is also apparent, at least with Hill and Turner now both out.
CTB has abruptly declined, allowing a 128.1 passer rating and 15.4 yards per reception.
Newton simply was not ready to fill in as a 4th round rookie.

The last problem is DL growth of current dudes.
Hubbard has taken a big step back. While he was never a sack artist, he was normally good for 6-8 a year. He's at just 2.0 through 12 games. Age and injuries might be catching up to him.
Murphy has been invisible in his 2nd year, not having registered a single sack through 8 games.
Ossai may be starting to come on late, having registered 2 sacks the past 2 games but 0 in the first 10 games.
Bengals also did not get any growth from Zach Carter, ultimately resulting in his release this year, his 3rd season.
Amusingly, Carter signed with LV after his release and he's played in 3 games, already registering a sack for LV at DE.
Maybe he just couldn't ever grow into a true 4-3 DT like we hoped and is better at DE.

I'm sure talent identification is part of the problem because of the guys that were added, but there's also a clear problem with talent development.
Guys like Murphy, Carter, and Ossai had shown some raw talent in college, but they needed refinement by NFL coaching to get them to their ceilings.
Guys like Rankins and Stone were just flat out bad fits for what the team needed. Stone's lack of speed and athleticism were never going to fit in Anarumo's defense. Rankins was in no way, shape, or form a replacement for Reader.

Hopefully we see the team willing to part ways with Rankins and Stone this offseason and put that toward a couple better fits for immediate FA contributors.
And then they need to get a couple promising pass rushers on the DL in the draft to go along with it.
Some coaches need replaced as well though, as they've been given a few years and haven't gotten any improvements.

Thanks Ochocincos, nice thread. Sucks all the way around, but I have to blame the FA and coaches the most. Bringing in Stone after a 
one year wonder was questionable at the time but there is no way I would of thought he would of been this bad. Like you said, should 
of just kept Battle at SS and even started Tycen Anderson at FS instead who is having a great season on ST's. Vonn falling off doesn't
surprise me but I didn't think he would be this bad either, Battle is clearly an upgrade over him.

Rankins was never a Reader replacement and I said it at the time, but I thought he would of made the pass rush much better as he 
actually had decent years as a starter in the NFL. This has to be on injury and poor coaching with how bad he has been. Hasn't even
been better than Kris Jenkins a rookie learning his way.

CTB being this bad is tragic, but I guess he never was an answer as a #1 corner. DJ Turner shown flashes and then got hurt, I like Fig
but he got thrown into the fire against that checkdown Offense of the stealers I guess. He didn't look good either after looking good in 
his first action against the Chargers.

The Linebackers have been crazy bad under Bettcher and for them not to be able to even sniff out screens and get close to interceptions
against that very predictable stealer Offense shows how bad the coaching is. I could play better seeing those plays coming and making 
plays. Screens and checkdowns are extremely predictable and something Linebackers should thrive at stopping. Not struggle against it.

Tackling on top of all of this means we need to fire the entire Defensive staff and start over from the fundamentals of tackling with a 
new crew that actually knows what they are doing. Cannot rely on interceptions and fumbles, you can rely on fundamentals that can 
get you there though.

[*ochocincos*]

(Yesterday, 06:36 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Thanks Ochocincos, nice thread. Sucks all the way around, but I have to blame the FA and coaches the most. Bringing in Stone after a 
one year wonder was questionable at the time but there is no way I would of thought he would of been this bad. Like you said, should 
of just kept Battle at SS and even started Tycen Anderson at FS instead who is having a great season on ST's. Vonn falling off doesn't
surprise me but I didn't think he would be this bad either, Battle is clearly an upgrade over him.

Rankins was never a Reader replacement and I said it at the time, but I thought he would of made the pass rush much better as he 
actually had decent years as a starter in the NFL. This has to be on injury and poor coaching with how bad he has been. Hasn't even
been better than Kris Jenkins a rookie learning his way.

CTB being this bad is tragic, but I guess he never was an answer as a #1 corner. DJ Turner shown flashes and then got hurt, I like Fig
but he got thrown into the fire against that checkdown Offense of the stealers I guess. He didn't look good either after looking good in 
his first action against the Chargers.

The Linebackers have been crazy bad under Bettcher and for them not to be able to even sniff out screens and get close to interceptions
against that very predictable stealer Offense shows how bad the coaching is. I could play better seeing those plays coming and making 
plays. Screens and checkdowns are extremely predictable and something Linebackers should thrive at stopping. Not struggle against it.

Tackling on top of all of this means we need to fire the entire Defensive staff and start over from the fundamentals of tackling with a 
new crew that actually knows what they are doing. Cannot rely on interceptions and fumbles, you can rely on fundamentals that can 
get you there though.

I went back and watched Stone's highlight reel from 2023 when he was a Raven, which has all his INTs.
A few of his INTs were overthrows and there's nothing special about him getting those. Errant throws by the QB and Stone didn't have to make any great plays to get them.
One of the INTs against the Bengals was a throw into the EZ and Stone jumped the route. He was about as far back as he could go, so the only thing he needed to do was come forward. Pretty "easy" coverage-wise to make a play compared to some other types of coverage plays for FS, IMO.
Another receiver had a CB covering him and Stone just undercut the route.

To me, Stone succeeded in BAL's scheme last year because his focus was coming downhill jumping routes or making clear overthrow INTs. He wasn't really a coverage guy.

For reference - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g6VYtcNipOM

Anarumo should have maybe watched the tape closer and noticed how Stone was being used to either A) realize Stone wouldn't be as successful if asked to play like Bates was asked, or B) change the safety responsibilities so Stone could be used more to his strengths (play back and try to undercut routes).

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(Yesterday, 07:24 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I went back and watched Stone's highlight reel from 2023 when he was a Raven, which has all his INTs.
A few of his INTs were overthrows and there's nothing special about him getting those. Errant throws by the QB and Stone didn't have to make any great plays to get them.
One of the INTs against the Bengals was a throw into the EZ and Stone jumped the route. He was about as far back as he could go, so the only thing he needed to do was come forward. Pretty "easy" coverage-wise to make a play compared to some other types of coverage plays for FS, IMO.
Another receiver had a CB covering him and Stone just undercut the route.

To me, Stone succeeded in BAL's scheme last year because his focus was coming downhill jumping routes or making clear overthrow INTs. He wasn't really a coverage guy.

For reference - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g6VYtcNipOM

Anarumo should have maybe watched the tape closer and noticed how Stone was being used to either A) realize Stone wouldn't be as successful if asked to play like Bates was asked, or B) change the safety responsibilities so Stone could be used more to his strengths (play back and try to undercut routes).

I watched those highlights when we signed him and thought lots of those were easy interceptions at the time. For them to sign him to 
as big of a contract as they did without taking this into account along with the rest of his career shows laziness and ineptitude. I thought
with him being a veteran and learning from some of those great players on the Ravens would mean he would at the very least be solid.

Stone has been a liability back there. Terrible in coverage and as a tackler. Like I said, Tycen should of started over him who shows good
things all the time and has the athletic ability to play FS.

[*ochocincos*]

(8 hours ago)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: I watched those highlights when we signed him and thought lots of those were easy interceptions at the time. For them to sign him to 
as big of a contract as they did without taking this into account along with the rest of his career shows laziness and ineptitude. I thought
with him being a veteran and learning from some of those great players on the Ravens would mean he would at the very least be solid.

Stone has been a liability back there. Terrible in coverage and as a tackler. Like I said, Tycen should of started over him who shows good
things all the time and has the athletic ability to play FS.

While I get your point, Stone didn't sign a big contract really.

Bengals more likely had a budget they were willing to spend on a safety ($8 mill or less APY) and Stone was someone who fit the bill.

Stone is the 20th highest paid safety, less than half of what someone like Bates is making.
Make a budget signing, usually get budget quality.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(8 hours ago)ochocincos Wrote: While I get your point, Stone didn't sign a big contract really.

Bengals more likely had a budget they were willing to spend on a safety ($8 mill or less APY) and Stone was someone who fit the bill.

Stone is the 20th highest paid safety, less than half of what someone like Bates is making.
Make a budget signing, usually get budget quality.

That is mad money for how terrible he has been. Stone should be out of the league selling cars or something. 

Should of just trusted in the draft process and started Tycen like I said.

[*ochocincos*]

(7 hours ago)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: That is mad money for how terrible he has been. Stone should be out of the league selling cars or something. 

Should of just trusted in the draft process and started Tycen like I said.

You're different from me.
I never cared for Anderson.
Dude had ST written all over him.
Definitely not a FS in my eyes. Maybe a SS though.

I wasn't really in the camp of moving away from Dax Hill yet, but had I been, I wanted someone like Kevin Byard, Justin Simmons, or maybe Darnell Savage.
I remember when I saw Stone was signed, I was like, "WHO?!?!"
Dude wasn't even planned to be the starting FS for BAL in 2023. It was supposed to be Hamilton and Williams primarily with Stone as a rotational flex between SS and FS.
Prior to going down to injury, Marcus Williams was playing 86% of the defensive snaps. Hamilton played 91%.
Stone ended up playing 82% last year in part because of Williams missing 6 games, but prior to that he had never played more than 41% of defensive snaps.
This year, he's at 97% with CIN.

With all playoff teams having 8+ wins, Bengals need a ton of help to get into the playoff and if they're not getting into the playoffs, there's no reason to care to win any more games, IMO. I know some don't agree, but draft position is really all that matters if not making the playoffs.
I'd actually consider benching Stone the rest of the way and giving his reps to Anthony/Anderson to see if they can amount to anything before deciding to get a fun, new FS this offseason.
Gimme Starks or Watts in the draft if going that route.

[SunsetBengal]

(8 hours ago)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: I watched those highlights when we signed him and thought lots of those were easy interceptions at the time. For them to sign him to 
as big of a contract as they did without taking this into account along with the rest of his career shows laziness and ineptitude. I thought
with him being a veteran and learning from some of those great players on the Ravens would mean he would at the very least be solid.

Stone has been a liability back there. Terrible in coverage and as a tackler. Like I said, Tycen should of started over him who shows good
things all the time and has the athletic ability to play FS.

Here's what I think. I feel like they just assumed that because Stone was a Raven, and that because they draft and develop defensive talent so well, that he was on the verge of breaking out as a really good player and just needed full time reps to show it.  However, what they might not have considered is that this isn't the Ravens, there isn't a rich culture of defensive greatness and accountability here. 

[Timanky12]

3 things wrong with the defense.

1 no pass rush
2 DB’s and safety’ s constantly out of position
3 can’t tackle a tackling dummy

I believe a new DC could fix #2 and #3, without any personnel changes. That does mean we don’t need replacements, but I think defense would be much improved.