In defense of Lou's 21 and 22

[Housh]

He was great



Idc who he had at his disposal, idc that Reader and Bates may have carried him. Those teams got stops when they were needed. Also players just played better those years


Still should be fired but those years where decent and idc where they ranked

[Lucius Cincinnatus]

(12-04-2024, 06:46 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: sure I get that, but Bates did admit to not playing his best those years. and yea, his pff grades reflect that. Those 2 years stick out. So if Bates actually played like Bates has the other years in his career(2018-2020 and 23-24), a lot of people who want Lou gone wouldnt be so quick to call his 21 and 22 defenses "lucky". Those defenses were still pretty good even with their best player underperforming all season. 

Like if Bates was currently playing like he did in 21 and 22, the falcons would be beneath the bucs

I mean, this is comical level of coping. We're using hypotheticals to justify Lou's "best" two years could have been better. Sure, let's live in this fantasy land where we evaluate outcomes based on how players could have played (which you can do with any team and any coach). 

Say Bates plays well in 2021 and 2022 and our defense is a bit better 10-15 range, we still have 4/6 years being a terrible defense under Lou. 

2019: 29th ypg, 25th ppg
2020: 26th ypg, 22nd ppg
2021: You're hypothetical good defense
2022: You're hypothetical good defense
2023: 31st ypg , 21st ppg
2024: 27th ypg, 31st ppg

So even if you squint and convince yourself of whatever you're trying to in 2021 & 2022, we have 4 out of 6 years of terrible defenses. 

[reuben.ahmed]

what have you done for me lately league, miss 14-16 tackles and let Pratt say it wasn't tackling problems that let PB get 514 yards

[Bengalbug]

(12-05-2024, 12:37 PM)Lucius Cincinnatus Wrote: I mean, this is comical level of coping. We're using hypotheticals to justify Lou's "best" two years could have been better. Sure, let's live in this fantasy land where we evaluate outcomes based on how players could have played (which you can do with any team and any coach). 

Say Bates plays well in 2021 and 2022 and our defense is a bit better 10-15 range, we still have 4/6 years being a terrible defense under Lou. 

2019: 29th ypg, 25th ppg
2020: 26th ypg, 22nd ppg
2021: You're hypothetical good defense
2022: You're hypothetical good defense
2023: 31st ypg , 21st ppg
2024: 27th ypg, 31st ppg

So even if you squint and convince yourself of whatever you're trying to in 2021 & 2022, we have 4 out of 6 years of terrible defenses. 

Last 6 years:

5th most yards given up
11th most TDs
10th most pass yards
2nd least in sack yards
14th most pass TDS
7th most rush yards
12th most rush tds

Bottom third in almost every category, or worse.

[samhain]

There's a strange narrative I see developing that I'm having a tough time digesting.  It's not quite prevalent, but it's a thing.  It involves the idea that Lou's defense has suffered due to the FO not giving adequate personnel.  

While I agree that losing certain guys like Bates and Reader was devastating, I kind of have a problem pinning it all on the FO and players.  

IMO the organization has given Lou a shitload of resources.  In fact, I'd say more than almost any coordinator that's ever been in their employ.  Like since I've been watching this team ever.  He didn't get week 2-4 free agents and lost cause criminals like Marvin.  When they sucked last year, he didn't get a washed AJ Hawk or Karlos Dansby.  There was no miscast James Harrison playing a position that they barely used.  He got a highly regarded safety, a DT that cost as much as the one they let walk, AND one of the guys that they lost last year to help pull it together.

Before that, he got an absolute embarrassment of riches to serve as his foundation.  Reader, Hendrickson, Bell, Ogunjobi, Waynes (oops), Chido, Alexander, and Hilton are names we saw.  More than half those guys were top end in their FA class.  

He also got draft capital out the ass to serve as a contingency for defections.  Most of these picks were in the secondary, his specialty.  First and second round talents like Hill, Turner and CTB all to be molded as Lou saw fit.  The best of the bunch actually managed to get worse on Lou's watch.  He also got a first round pass rusher who he's confoundingly reluctant to use.

I'm not disagreeing when people say our FO is garbage, but the effort they put into supporting Anarumo's success here was downright Herculean compared to past teams.

[SunsetBengal]

(12-06-2024, 05:28 PM)samhain Wrote: There's a strange narrative I see developing that I'm having a tough time digesting.  It's not quite prevalent, but it's a thing.  It involves the idea that Lou's defense has suffered due to the FO not giving adequate personnel.  

While I agree that losing certain guys like Bates and Reader was devastating, I kind of have a problem pinning it all on the FO and players.  

IMO the organization has given Lou a shitload of resources.  In fact, I'd say more than almost any coordinator that's ever been in their employ.  Like since I've been watching this team ever.  He didn't get week 2-4 free agents and lost cause criminals like Marvin.  When they sucked last year, he didn't get a washed AJ Hawk or Karlos Dansby.  There was no miscast James Harrison playing a position that they barely used.  He got a highly regarded safety, a DT that cost as much as the one they let walk, AND one of the guys that they lost last year to help pull it together.

Before that, he got an absolute embarrassment of riches to serve as his foundation.  Reader, Hendrickson, Bell, Ogunjobi, Waynes (oops), Chido, Alexander, and Hilton are names we saw.  More than half those guys were top end in their FA class.  

He also got draft capital out the ass to serve as a contingency for defections.  Most of these picks were in the secondary, his specialty.  First and second round talents like Hill, Turner and CTB all to be molded as Lou saw fit.  The best of the bunch actually managed to get worse on Lou's watch.  He also got a first round pass rusher who he's confoundingly reluctant to use.

I'm not disagreeing when people say our FO is garbage, but the effort they put into supporting Anarumo's success here was downright Herculean compared to past teams.

You are correct, and part of the problem lies in that while he's been afforded mostly good free agent acquisitions to work with, he and his position coaches have failed to develop any drafted players to be ready to step up into solid starting roles when those free agent deals ran out. Being a coordinator is a multi faceted position with multiple roles. Part of it is overseeing the execution of the scheme in practices and games, but another part of his role is to oversee the development of young talent. He can pin some of that on the position coaches, but ultimately those position coaches are accountable to the coordinator.

[samhain]

(12-06-2024, 05:43 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: You are correct, and part of the problem lies in that while he's been afforded mostly good free agent acquisitions to work with, he and his position coaches have failed to develop any drafted players to be ready to step up into solid starting roles when those free agent deals ran out. Being a coordinator is a multi faceted position with multiple roles. Part of it is overseeing the execution of the scheme in practices and games, but another part of his role is to oversee the development of young talent. He can pin some of that on the position coaches, but ultimately those position coaches are accountable to the coordinator.

It's something that just didn't work out for them.  Getting Lou high-priced players to stock his defense was exactly what they should have done while the young qb was on a rookie deal.  No complaints there.  Several of us begged for that very course of action.  

Honestly, it really looked like they were taking the correct steps to sustain a serviceable defense when the guys they knew were leaving left.  I had zero problem with any of it.

Until I saw the result.

Something is lacking in development or evaluation.  I'm guessing evaluation due to lack of scouts.  Lou does not seem like much of a teaching coordinator, to be honest.  Hard to tell when you can still pin things on the tiny scouting dept.  The guys very well might not be as good as we thought.  

If you'd have told any of us that we'd get FA classes like Lou's at any point in the Marvin era we'd have laughed you off the board.  That's a fact.  

Tragically, this is going to end up being the culture issue we'd all just as soon forget about.  It was nice to think spending on FAs would fix this, but it's a deeper issue.  This is not an agile franchise.  It's awkward and unsure of itself.  Possible lazy and apathetic.

[SunsetBengal]

(12-06-2024, 07:27 PM)samhain Wrote: Something is lacking in development or evaluation.  I'm guessing evaluation due to lack of scouts.  Lou does not seem like much of a teaching coordinator, to be honest.  Hard to tell when you can still pin things on the tiny scouting dept.  The guys very well might not be as good as we thought.  

I'm leaning towards development. They've ran a hell of a lot of DL through here since the days of Dunlap, Peko, Atkins and Johnson, and you're telling me that the only one that stuck is Sam Hubbard?? I chose that position group because Marion Hobby has been around for a long time, spanning two coaching regimes, and it's a perfect example.

Most all of those picks on DL over the years were guys that were somewhat outstanding in their college careers, it's damn near impossible to misjudge the pick on all of them.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(12-06-2024, 07:41 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: I chose that position group because Marion Hobby has been around for a long time, spanning two coaching regimes, and it's a perfect example.

Marion Hobby was hired by the Bengals in 2021. Before that it was Nick Eason who got hired by Zac/Lou in '19.

The only coaches we have from pre-Zac are Darrin Simmons and Frank Pollack (who was here for '18, left for '19 and '20, and came back in '21).

[SunsetBengal]

(12-06-2024, 07:48 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Marion Hobby was hired by the Bengals in 2021. Before that it was Nick Eason who got hired by Zac/Lou in '19.

The only coaches we have from pre-Zac are Darrin Simmons and Frank Pollack (who was here for '18, left for '19 and '20, and came back in '21).

Thanks for the correction, for some reason I had him as being around forever.  My opinion stays the same, he can't develop guys to the strength of their qualities.

[samhain]

(12-06-2024, 07:41 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: I'm leaning towards development. They've ran a hell of a lot of DL through here since the days of Dunlap, Peko, Atkins and Johnson, and you're telling me that the only one that stuck is Sam Hubbard?? I chose that position group because Marion Hobby has been around for a long time, spanning two coaching regimes, and it's a perfect example.

Most all of those picks on DL over the years were guys that were somewhat outstanding in their college careers, it's damn near impossible to misjudge the pick on all of them.

Woof.  That's even worse than I remembered.

It always weirds me out when I see teams like Pittsburgh and Baltimore hit home runs on mid to late 1st rounders.  They take the best center.  or guard.  Or safety.  We're talking HOF caliber talent.  We take some guy that fell but had a fantastic eval in draft prep.  Pittsburgh got the most feared pass rusher in the league with a late first rounder.      The got Cam Heyward, who seems to be an ageless monster that will terrorize us forever.  It feels like he's been in the league for two decades.  They get Porter Jr and actually know how to use him.  The Ravens do the same shit until they decide to draft a WR which rarely works out for them.  

We get Murphy.  Or Hill.  Guys that should have gone earlier but for some reason got passed on by all these other teams.  Hmmmmmm.

[SunsetBengal]

(12-06-2024, 08:58 PM)samhain Wrote: Woof.  That's even worse than I remembered.

It always weirds me out when I see teams like Pittsburgh and Baltimore hit hime runs on mid to late 1st rounders.  They take the best center.  or guard.  Or safety.  We're talking HOF caliber talent.  We take some guy that fell but had a fantastic eval in draft prep.  Pittsburgh got the most feared pass rusher in the league with a late first rounder.      The got Cam Hayward, who seems to be an ageless monster that will terrorize us forever.  It feels like he's been in the league for two decades.  They get Porter Jr and actually know how to use him.  The Ravens do the same shit until they decide to draft a WR which rarely works out for them.  

We get Murphy.  Or Hill.  Guys that should have gone earlier but for some reason got passed on by all these other teams.  Hmmmmmm.

That's because those organizations know how to properly build a football team, from the inside and work outward..

Paul Brown was that way, he knew the value of OL and front seven. Mike on the other hand, has always been enamored with perimeter players.

[*psychdoctor*]

I personally feel the problem on defense is a personnel issue as it relates to Lou's scheme for defense. I think Lou has a scheme and he needs a particular type or types of players for his vision to work.

This is more of Tobin issue and the failure of FO to give the coach what he needs for his scheme to work. WTS, a good DC should be able to adapt players on the roster to an effective scheme. The Bengals do not have depth at a lot of positions and that is a failure by the GM.

[Dr.Z]

I think it’s all about DT. When Reader played and was healthy , the defense had a foundation. Reader + Ogun = even better. I think it’s silly to not prioritize the position first and foremost and expect to be able to stop anyone w any consistency. I think it’s the second most important position in football after QB.

[samhain]

(12-07-2024, 12:57 PM)Dr.Z Wrote: I think it’s all about DT.   When Reader played and was healthy , the defense had a foundation. Reader + Ogun = even better.   I think it’s silly to not prioritize the position first and foremost and expect to be able to stop anyone w any consistency.   I think it’s the second most important position in football after QB.

Losing DJ didn't help.  Even so, they were garbage vs the run last year even when he did play.  

The biggest issues really do seem to be in the secondary.  With may be one or two exceptions, these guys have no idea where they are supposed to be.  To compound it, in the event that they ARE where they are supposed to be, they rarely execute to make the tackle.  

I think that just perhaps, just maybe, the issue is a total lack of pressure.  Trey is an animal, but nobody else does a damn thing.  Jalen Hurts had forever.  So did Russ.  Lamar is tough enough to deal with even when a defense does get pressure.  He just does Lamar things and Houdinis his way out of trouble.  

Any semblance of added pressure would probably help the secondary.  Even so, I think that the scheme is failing them.  It shouldn't be high physics to teach an athlete at that level.  

[samhain]

(12-04-2024, 06:41 PM)Synric Wrote: It's not about how pff graded Bates it's what having Bates allowed the team to do on defense in underneath coverage. It's not a coincidence that those are Bell, Wilson, and Pratts best pff coverage years.

Bates and Reader never really got hype or glazing nationally.  They didn't play stat heavy positions.  Even so, how many guys in the league can hold down single high like Bates did?  Not many at all.  It's tough to replace that with a prospect or even a veteran.  The inventory just isn't there.  

Same for Reader.  He's never going to make Aaron Donald money, but finding a guy that can do what he does at his level is extremely hard.  NT might be the literal hardest position to judge when it comes to college prospects.  You just don't know until you see them on the field vs grown man professionals.  Shelvin was a monster size wise and played well vs SEC competition.  He played one of the toughest schedules imaginable in the Burrow title year.  He was also terrible in the NFL.