Way Too Early Pan Me Mock December 16

[Whatever]

Grant is an athletic freak, with tales of running a sub 5.00 40 at 360 pounds his Freshman year at Michigan. He's a legit 2-gap NT with the first step quickness and athleticism to win as a pass rusher, but also the power to collapse the pocket. 2 gap noses with pass rushing ability are rare animals, and Grant has the potential to be a defensive cornerstone for years to come.

At 6'6", 350, Walker may have 2- gap size, but he's at his best as a one gap penetrating pass rusher. Raw prospect with a basketball background, his 7.5 sacks as a sophomore speak to his ability to get to the QB. Line him up next to Grant and you get a true nightmare scenario for the OL.

Taylor is a 2nd gen NFL prospect, the son of Jason Taylor. He's a true 3 level threat from the TE position while also being a decent blocker. Hopefully, he can stop the yearly 1 year stopgap starters at TE.

While the latter half of the season seems to have established Chase Brown as a true feature back going forward, RB depth is still an issue. Injuries cause Henderson to slip, but he's another potential home run hitter out of the backfield and could challenge Moss for RB2 reps by the end of next year.

A slight frame at 6'2", 188 and questions about 40 speed find Felton falling to the 5th here, but a a good combine showing should vault him into Day 2 given how bad this WR class is.

Mondon is an athletic LB who shows a lack of instincts on the field. Should be a solid ST's guy who might develop as a position player.

[*ochocincos*]

(12-16-2024, 12:46 PM)Whatever Wrote: Grant is an athletic freak, with tales of running a sub 5.00 40 at 360 pounds his Freshman year at Michigan.  He's a legit 2-gap NT with the first step quickness and athleticism to win as a pass rusher, but also the power to collapse the pocket.  2 gap noses with pass rushing ability are rare animals, and Grant has the potential to be a defensive cornerstone for years to come.  

At 6'6", 350, Walker may have 2- gap size, but he's at his best as a one gap penetrating pass rusher.  Raw prospect with a basketball background, his 7.5 sacks as a sophomore speak to his ability to get to the QB.  Line him up next to Grant and you get a true nightmare scenario for the OL.  

Taylor is a 2nd gen NFL prospect, the son of Jason Taylor.  He's a true 3 level threat from the TE position while also being a decent blocker.  Hopefully, he can stop the yearly 1 year stopgap starters at TE.

While the latter half of the season seems to have established Chase Brown as a true feature back going forward, RB depth is still an issue.  Injuries cause Henderson to slip, but he's another potential home run hitter out of the backfield and could challenge Moss for RB2 reps by the end of next year.

A slight frame at 6'2", 188 and questions about 40 speed find Felton falling to the 5th here, but a a good combine showing should vault him into Day 2 given how bad this WR class is.  

Mondon is an athletic LB who shows a lack of instincts on the field.  Should be a solid ST's guy who might develop as a position player.

While I like Grant and Walker, you're going to start both of them?
What are your plans for Jenkins and Jackson?
Giving up on them already or relegating them to backup?

I'm hoping SAF, WR and OL are addressed in FA, unless you are planning for Felton to compete with Burton for outside WR2 duties?

Other than knowing plans for FA, I'd personally like to see an edge rusher and/or DB taken instead of one of the DTs.
I don't believe in throwing a bunch of high draft picks at a position year after year to try to solve a problem.
If a rookie isn't covering the spot, it might be best to draft one and get a cheaper veteran to cover another spot at the position.

[Whatever]

(12-16-2024, 03:22 PM)ochocincos Wrote: While I like Grant and Walker, you're going to start both of them?
What are your plans for Jenkins and Jackson?
Giving up on them already or relegating them to backup?

I'm hoping SAF, WR and OL are addressed in FA, unless you are planning for Felton to compete with Burton for outside WR2 duties?

Other than knowing plans for FA, I'd personally like to see an edge rusher and/or DB taken instead of one of the DTs.
I don't believe in throwing a bunch of high draft picks at a position year after year to try to solve a problem.
If a rookie isn't covering the spot, it might be best to draft one and get a cheaper veteran to cover another spot at the position.

Despite his size, Walker isn't a great run defender.  Jenkins would definitely have a role on early downs/run situations.  He could potentially earn a starting job  if he improves as a pass rusher, and you can never have enough pass rushers. Similarly, Jackson would rotate at NT.  Reader was only playing around 60% of the defensive snaps when he was here.  You need multiple guys who can take significant snaps.  Plus, keeping Grant and Walker fresh will pay dividends on 3rd downs where we need a rush to get off the field.

I didn't do a FA for this, but G, WR, and S are deep in FA.  There's talk of resigning Tee again.  As much as I think he should be gone, Stone May be doing enough down the stretch to save his job.  G, definitely needs addressed, but not a great class for IOL or WR, really.  That was one of the thoughts with Taylor in 3, give Joe another option and avoid spending premium capital on a bad class.  Put a gun to my head, and a realistic FA would be Steelers ' RG James Daniels, Cards' LG Evan Brown, KC WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Falcons S Justin Simmons.

There wasn't an edge I liked in 2, so I went with the best pass rusher available.  And pretty much any position group we draft on defense is just throwing high picks at the problem.  Draft a DE, we're giving up on Murphy.  Draft a CB, we're giving up on Hill, CTB, and Turner.  Draft a S, we're giving up on Battle.  Ultimately, with the pass rush so bad, it's tough to get a good read on the young DB's, so that's the route I went.

[*ochocincos*]

(12-16-2024, 04:35 PM)Whatever Wrote: Despite his size, Walker isn't a great run defender.  Jenkins would definitely have a role on early downs/run situations.  He could potentially earn a starting job  if he improves as a pass rusher, and you can never have enough pass rushers. Similarly, Jackson would rotate at NT.  Reader was only playing around 60% of the defensive snaps when he was here.  You need multiple guys who can take significant snaps.  Plus, keeping Grant and Walker fresh will pay dividends on 3rd downs where we need a rush to get off the field.

I didn't do a FA for this, but G, WR, and S are deep in FA.  There's talk of resigning Tee again.  As much as I think he should be gone, Stone May be doing enough down the stretch to save his job.  G, definitely needs addressed, but not a great class for IOL or WR, really.  That was one of the thoughts with Taylor in 3, give Joe another option and avoid spending premium capital on a bad class.  Put a gun to my head, and a realistic FA would be Steelers ' RG James Daniels, Cards' LG Evan Brown, KC WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Falcons S Justin Simmons.

There wasn't an edge I liked in 2, so I went with the best pass rusher available.  And pretty much any position group we draft on defense is just throwing high picks at the problem.  Draft a DE, we're giving up on Murphy.  Draft a CB, we're giving up on Hill, CTB, and Turner.  Draft a S, we're giving up on Battle.  Ultimately, with the pass rush so bad, it's tough to get a good read on the young DB's, so that's the route I went.

Disagree.

Hendrickson AND Hubbard are going into contract year in 2025.
Murphy could take one of those spots, the new draft pick could take the other spot, even if it's 2-3 years down the road and serve as a rotational guy prior.

Stone, even if kept, is entering a contract year in 2025. They may want to draft a new FS and ride the bench for a year then take over the year after like they did with Dax Hill and Jessie Bates.

For CB, CTB is entering contract year in 2025, possibly Hill too if they choose not to exercise his 5th year option this offseason.
I doubt they would end up keeping both of them on veteran contracts.
Hilton also is set to hit FA after this season, so there's a starting spot opening soon for someone.

Bengals, whether we agree or not, like to draft players a year early and give them a year to develop as a backup before being thrust into a starting role.
They've done this for many years now, so I'm not expecting much different other than possibly FS if they cut Stone.

[pulses]

(12-16-2024, 05:52 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Disagree.

Hendrickson AND Hubbard are going into contract year in 2025.
Murphy could take one of those spots, the new draft pick could take the other spot, even if it's 2-3 years down the road and serve as a rotational guy prior.

Stone, even if kept, is entering a contract year in 2025. They may want to draft a new FS and ride the bench for a year then take over the year after like they did with Dax Hill and Jessie Bates.

For CB, CTB is entering contract year in 2025, possibly Hill too if they choose not to exercise his 5th year option this offseason.
I doubt they would end up keeping both of them on veteran contracts.
Hilton also is set to hit FA after this season, so there's a starting spot opening soon for someone.

Bengals, whether we agree or not, like to draft players a year early and give them a year to develop as a backup before being thrust into a starting role.
They've done this for many years now, so I'm not expecting much different other than possibly FS if they cut Stone.

Some might disagree but I would keep Dax and let CTB go if it was between the two. Dax was playing pretty good this year before getting hurt.

[Luvnit2]

I think Hubbard's last Bengals play was a TD catch. We save a lot of cash and cap money if we cut him. So, the need for DE is now in my opinion. Either 1st round pick or a vet pass rusher in FA is needed.

[*ochocincos*]

(12-16-2024, 06:21 PM)pulses Wrote: Some might disagree but I would keep Dax and let CTB go if it was between the two. Dax was playing pretty good this year before getting hurt.

too small of a sample set, IMO

[pulses]

(12-16-2024, 07:27 PM)ochocincos Wrote: too small of a sample set, IMO

Same can be said for CTB as well.

[samhain]

It's counterintuitive, but I wouldn't be mad.  We really need another edge player.  Still, I'd love to see a couple of monsters in the middle.

No idea what they'll do in FA, but Grant is becoming a player that I think would be perfect for this team.

[*Synric*]

I'm a big Kenneth Grant fan. He started off a little slow this year playing alot more true 0t because of the DC switch but both he and Graham turned it on midway through the season. He's probabaly not going to be a standout pass rusher but he is athletic enough to threaten vs early down playaction etc. One of the little mentioned traits for Grant is his awareness he does a good job of keeping eyes on thr ball and QB and getting his hands into passing lanes causing PDs.

I'm the opposite with Deone Walker. Walker I think led college IDL in pressures in 2023 but he isn't much fun to watch. Feels like a "looks like Tarzan plays like Jane" type of prospect. He is obviously tall and it shows up in his leverage for his size he is just bad at the point of attack and against double teams. Nimble and changes gaps better than you would expect for a guy that heavy but thr lack of a power against run and as a rusher makes me iffy on Walker.

[Whatever]

(12-16-2024, 05:52 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Disagree.

Hendrickson AND Hubbard are going into contract year in 2025.
Murphy could take one of those spots, the new draft pick could take the other spot, even if it's 2-3 years down the road and serve as a rotational guy prior.

Stone, even if kept, is entering a contract year in 2025. They may want to draft a new FS and ride the bench for a year then take over the year after like they did with Dax Hill and Jessie Bates.

For CB, CTB is entering contract year in 2025, possibly Hill too if they choose not to exercise his 5th year option this offseason.
I doubt they would end up keeping both of them on veteran contracts.
Hilton also is set to hit FA after this season, so there's a starting spot opening soon for someone.

Bengals, whether we agree or not, like to draft players a year early and give them a year to develop as a backup before being thrust into a starting role.
They've done this for many years now, so I'm not expecting much different other than possibly FS if they cut Stone.

Best Edge rusher I had available in the 2nd was Jack Sawyer.  Sorry, I'm not passing on Deone Walker for Jack Sawyer.

Best secondary player available was Nick Emmanwori, who's more of a rover and not a true FS type.  There were no CB's available I felt worth the pick.  Besides which, they would still have Hill and Turner for outside CB's if CTB leaves after next year and you aren't spending a 2nd rounder on a slot nickel CB.

Beyond that, the issues with this defense all start up front.  I took what I felt was the best pass rusher available.  Unless we're talking elite, shut down CB or elite ball hawking Ed Reed S, I'm taking pass rush over secondary 10/10 for this defense.  With a good pass rush, even Eli Apple's sad ass looked like a decent starter.  It's a lot easier to cover up for problems in the secondary with a good pass rush than for a good secondary to cover up a bad DL.

[Whatever]

(Yesterday, 10:01 AM)Synric Wrote: I'm a big Kenneth Grant fan. He started off a little slow this year playing alot more true 0t because of the DC switch but both he and Graham turned it on midway through the season. He's probabaly not going to be a standout pass rusher but he is athletic enough to threaten vs early down playaction etc. One of the little mentioned traits for Grant is his awareness he does a good job of keeping eyes on thr ball and QB and getting his hands into passing lanes causing PDs.

I'm the opposite with Deone Walker. Walker I think led college IDL in pressures in 2023 but he isn't much fun to watch. Feels like a "looks like Tarzan plays like Jane" type of prospect. He is obviously tall and it shows up in his leverage for his size he is just bad at the point of attack and against double teams. Nimble and changes gaps better than you would expect for a guy that heavy but thr lack of a power against run and as a rusher makes me iffy on Walker.

Interesting stat to keep in mind regarding Walker and a dude I know you like.  Walter Nolen has played 1302 snaps in 34 college games.  Walker has played 1766 in 36.  Walker plays on average just over 49 snaps a game.  That's a TON for a guy playing at 340-350.  Nolen plays just over 38 a game, which is a good amount, but nowhere close.  There's gonna be bad reps just due to fatigue and taking plays off, cuz the kid rarely comes off the field.  

Honestly, I think Walker is going to be a better 3 tech than a NT.  I'd like to see him drop weight and use that length and first step to shoot gaps and use the bull rush as a change up.  But at 6'6", he's going to lose at the POA at times, especially if he gets worn out and technique slips.

[*ochocincos*]

(Yesterday, 10:35 AM)Whatever Wrote: Best Edge rusher I had available in the 2nd was Jack Sawyer.  Sorry, I'm not passing on Deone Walker for Jack Sawyer.

Best secondary player available was Nick Emmanwori, who's more of a rover and not a true FS type.  There were no CB's available I felt worth the pick.  Besides which, they would still have Hill and Turner for outside CB's if CTB leaves after next year and you aren't spending a 2nd rounder on a slot nickel CB.

Beyond that, the issues with this defense all start up front.  I took what I felt was the best pass rusher available.  Unless we're talking elite, shut down CB or elite ball hawking Ed Reed S, I'm taking pass rush over secondary 10/10 for this defense.  With a good pass rush, even Eli Apple's sad ass looked like a decent starter.  It's a lot easier to cover up for problems in the secondary with a good pass rush than for a good secondary to cover up a bad DL.

What about Deone Walker in Rd 2 and an edge rusher in Rd 1?
Or are you that into Grant you want him in Rd 1?
Did Xavier Watts not make it to Bengals pick in Rd 2? I really like him at FS.

[Whatever]

(Yesterday, 05:23 PM)ochocincos Wrote: What about Deone Walker in Rd 2 and an edge rusher in Rd 1?
Or are you that into Grant you want him in Rd 1?
Did Xavier Watts not make it to Bengals pick in Rd 2? I really like him at FS.

There were Edge rushers I liked in the 1st, but I went with Grant, instead.  NT's that can play 2-gap with pass rush ability are rare.  With Hill a UFA, not to mention maybe the best DT in the market, there was also a more immediate need there.  Yeah, I would like an Edge somewhere, but the board didn't fall that way and I'm not one to "force" picks based on position group.

Watts is often available in the 3rd.  I'm not taking him in the 2nd with a 1st round talent (for this class, anyways), on the board.  Obviously, Big Boards will shift as the draft process goes on.  I'm sure he was available in 2 and can't remember if he was there in 3 or not.

[*ochocincos*]

(Yesterday, 06:10 PM)Whatever Wrote: There were Edge rushers I liked in the 1st, but I went with Grant, instead.  NT's that can play 2-gap with pass rush ability are rare.  With Hill a UFA, not to mention maybe the best DT in the market, there was also a more immediate need there.  Yeah, I would like an Edge somewhere, but the board didn't fall that way and I'm not one to "force" picks based on position group.

Watts is often available in the 3rd.  I'm not taking him in the 2nd with a 1st round talent (for this class, anyways), on the board.  Obviously, Big Boards will shift as the draft process goes on.  I'm sure he was available in 2 and can't remember if he was there in 3 or not.

Depending on what you are setting in your mock draft simulator, I guess.

When I look at NFL Draft Buzz, Watts is listed as an average overall prospect ranking of 52.6, which would put him square in the middle of Rd 2.
That average ranking is an average of all the draft sites/sources in their database.

Personally, I'd pull the trigger on Watts in Rd 2, but that's based on what I've personally seen of him. I'd be ecstatic to get him in Rd 3.

[pulses]

(Yesterday, 10:01 AM)Synric Wrote: I'm a big Kenneth Grant fan. He started off a little slow this year playing alot more true 0t because of the DC switch but both he and Graham turned it on midway through the season. He's probabaly not going to be a standout pass rusher but he is athletic enough to threaten vs early down playaction etc. One of the little mentioned traits for Grant is his awareness he does a good job of keeping eyes on thr ball and QB and getting his hands into passing lanes causing PDs.

I'm the opposite with Deone Walker. Walker I think led college IDL in pressures in 2023 but he isn't much fun to watch. Feels like a "looks like Tarzan plays like Jane" type of prospect. He is obviously tall and it shows up in his leverage for his size he is just bad at the point of attack and against double teams. Nimble and changes gaps better than you would expect for a guy that heavy but thr lack of a power against run and as a rusher makes me iffy on Walker.

Rather have CJ West in the 5th than Walker in the 2nd.

[Whatever]

(Yesterday, 08:02 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Depending on what you are setting in your mock draft simulator, I guess.

When I look at NFL Draft Buzz, Watts is listed as an average overall prospect ranking of 52.6, which would put him square in the middle of Rd 2.
That average ranking is an average of all the draft sites/sources in their database.

Personally, I'd pull the trigger on Watts in Rd 2, but that's based on what I've personally seen of him. I'd be ecstatic to get him in Rd 3.

Per the Consensus Big Board, which is board this sim uses, Watts is 59th, on average.  So, late 2nd/early 3rd.  Walker is ranked 33rd, so late 1st/early 2nd.  

Is Watts an unforgivable reach?  Probably not.  But still, he's nowhere close to the BPA.  And S isn't a premium position teams are usually willing to reach for.