Synric's Senior Bowl Mock

[*Synric*]

(02-03-2025, 07:30 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Not being snarky, just actually curious and know you look (way) more into prospects than most...
How often are strong side run-stopping DEs taken in Rd 1?

I feel like it's not very often.

Stewart's floor as a run defender which gets him a high percentage of early down snaps combined with his high ceiling as a massive power rusher with a small man's burst & bend are why we are seeing him mocked in the top 20.

[*ochocincos*]

(02-03-2025, 07:46 PM)Synric Wrote: Stewart's floor as a run defender which gets him a high percentage of early down snaps combined with his high ceiling as a massive power rusher with a small man's burst & bend are why we are seeing him mocked in the top 20.

Yea I get it, just moreso asking the question how often are strong side DEs going in Rd 1?

[pulses]

(02-03-2025, 07:19 PM)Synric Wrote: Thr Bengals desperately need a Left Defensive End to replace 70% of the defensive snaps taken by Sam Hubbard. Completely Different.

You can find that type of player later on in the draft or in FA. This class is loaded with pass rushers and we have to take advantage of that THIS YEAR.

[pulses]

(02-03-2025, 08:01 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Yea I get it, just moreso asking the question how often are strong side DEs going in Rd 1?

Not very often and especially one who didn't produce......we don't need another Murphy in round 1.

[*Synric*]

(02-03-2025, 10:10 PM)pulses Wrote: You can find that type of player later on in the draft or in FA. This class is loaded with pass rushers and we have to take advantage of that THIS YEAR.

Pass rusher isn't a position.

They need a Left Defensive End that can lineup as a 5t - 9wide and be able to shift to different alignments at the snap. This player will see a very high snap share 70%ish. He will see alot more tighter alignments as a 5t hand in the dirt 6t lined up opposite of Trey Hendrickson. The player will have to play on the Left because Trey only plays RDE. Because of alignment the LDE will have alot of gap control snaps during the game.


Guys like Marshall's Mike Green are going to be a Jack.

[*Synric*]

(02-03-2025, 08:01 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Yea I get it, just moreso asking the question how often are strong side DEs going in Rd 1?

I'd say as many as weak side defensive ends but I get what your saying lol. You have mentioned Travon Walker and Jadaveon Clowney. There's Tyree Wilson, Myles Murphy, Odafe Oweh, Gregory Rousseau, Jaelen Phillips (had sacks but lower win rate), K'Lavon Chaisson, Rashan Gary, Clelin Ferrell.


In this class we will likely see Shemar Stewart & Mykel Williams with a possibility of Nic Scourton & Jack Sawyer climbing into thr first round.

[pulses]

(02-04-2025, 07:17 AM)Synric Wrote: Pass rusher isn't a position.

They need a Left Defensive End that can lineup as a 5t - 9wide and be able to shift to different alignments at the snap. This player will see a very high snap share 70%ish. He will see alot more tighter alignments as a 5t hand in the dirt 6t lined up opposite of Trey Hendrickson. The player will have to play on the Left because Trey only plays RDE. Because of alignment the LDE will have alot of gap control snaps during the game.


Guys like Marshall's Mike Green are going to be a Jack.

maybe so but Stewart is not the guy he didn't have the production and we don't need another Murphy

[Luvnit2]

(02-04-2025, 07:17 AM)Synric Wrote: Pass rusher isn't a position.

They need a Left Defensive End that can lineup as a 5t - 9wide and be able to shift to different alignments at the snap. This player will see a very high snap share 70%ish. He will see alot more tighter alignments as a 5t hand in the dirt 6t lined up opposite of Trey Hendrickson. The player will have to play on the Left because Trey only plays RDE. Because of alignment the LDE will have alot of gap control snaps during the game.


Guys like Marshall's Mike Green are going to be a Jack.

I agree a pass rusher is not a position in the base. But I have seen teams deploy a pass rusher at LDE on 3rd and long or when a team has no choice but to pass the ball.

I think Murphy can handle early downs, but on 3rd and long I would love a guy that has one mission, sack or pressure the QB. Right now, we have Trey and no one else on 3rd and long or when we are ahead, and we know the team has to pass to catch up.

We need 2 guys to be a complete LDE in my opinion because the cost of another Trey is too costly.

[*ochocincos*]

(02-04-2025, 07:29 AM)Synric Wrote: I'd say as many as weak side defensive ends but I get what your saying lol. You have mentioned Travon Walker and Jadaveon Clowney. There's Tyree Wilson, Myles Murphy, Odafe Oweh, Gregory Rousseau, Jaelen Phillips (had sacks but lower win rate), K'Lavon Chaisson, Rashan Gary, Clelin Ferrell.


In this class we will likely see Shemar Stewart & Mykel Williams with a possibility of Nic Scourton & Jack Sawyer climbing into thr first round.

Oh I wasn't trying to imply anything.
I legit just was curious how often RDEs/strong-side DEs were taken vs LDEs/weak-side DEs, as I genuinely didn't know and I didn't want to take the time to look it up if someone else knew.

[puddycat]

(02-04-2025, 05:24 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I legit just was curious how often LDEs/strong-side DEs were taken vs RDEs/weak-side DEs..

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/41040723/2024-nfl-win-rates-top-teams-players-rankings

Not strongside v. weakside, but it does have DE pass rush win rate and DE run stop win rate.  What you'll see is most of the good run defenders also have 5-10 sacks, but not all pass rush ends are good against the run.  This is actually making me rethink David Walker and Jack Sawyer draft value.

[*ochocincos*]

(02-05-2025, 04:52 AM)puddycat Wrote: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/41040723/2024-nfl-win-rates-top-teams-players-rankings

Not strongside v. weakside, but it does have DE pass rush win rate and DE run stop win rate.  What you'll see is most of the good run defenders also have 5-10 sacks, but not all pass rush ends are good against the run.  This is actually making me rethink David Walker and Jack Sawyer draft value.

Yea someone would have to possibly go through every team and figure out which DE lined up primarily against the LT vs RT.

I thought most of the 1st round drafted DEs were lining up a majority over the LT instead of the RT, but I know teams shift their top DE more often based on matchup nowadays.

Hendrickson is a high majority (always?) against the LT, but I know like Myles Garrett will play both sides.

[SunsetBengal]

(02-05-2025, 12:34 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Yea someone would have to possibly go through every team and figure out which DE lined up primarily against the LT vs RT.

I thought most of the 1st round drafted DEs were lining up a majority over the LT instead of the RT, but I know teams shift their top DE more often based on matchup nowadays.

Hendrickson is a high majority (always?) against the LT, but I know like Myles Garrett will play both sides.

I've always thought that the "rush end" was always shifted to the weak side of the formation and the other DE went to the strong side for greater run defending skills.

[*Synric*]

(02-04-2025, 05:24 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Oh I wasn't trying to imply anything.
I legit just was curious how often RDEs/strong-side DEs were taken vs LDEs/weak-side DEs, as I genuinely didn't know and I didn't want to take the time to look it up if someone else knew.

It's not the strong/weak side issue it's the fact Trey Hendrickson only plays on the right side which forces the Left to have the same alignment versatility. 


Here are some reps for Shemar vs South Carolina. He lines up everywhere from 4t-9w.

Shemar Stewart vs. South Carolina pic.twitter.com/3bmiv3v7A6

— Bengals & Brews (@BengalsBrews) February 3, 2025

Shemar would see alot less 4t/5t in a 425/43 would look alot more like Jack Sawyer here (also should be on the Bengals board somewhere).

Jack Sawyer (#33) versus Texas pic.twitter.com/jRzRpZkbs9

— Bengals & Brews (@BengalsBrews) February 3, 2025

 

[*Synric*]

Here's James Pearce Jr who could also be a 43 End with his length but as you can see Tennessee flips him to give him the wide alignments more (over TEs or space from the tackle). Pearce is still my Edge #2. 

James Pearce Jr. (#27) vs. Florida pic.twitter.com/6tMQ12DbJR

— Bengals & Brews (@BengalsBrews) February 2, 2025