N.Y. Times Playoff Trees

[LebanonFan]

Interesting read...playoff trees charting the path to the playoffs for every NFL team..

http://nyti.ms/1OeObQu

With 31 games remaining in the season, there are two billion ways the season could end. Which of those outcomes are best for your team? It’s questions like these that led us to build our N.F.L. simulator, to let you explore which games matter the most for your team’s playoff chances. 

But with just two weeks left, the remaining possibilities have winnowed to a small enough number that we can start to list them exhaustively, depicting each team’s possible paths as the branches of a tree. We have listed the games from left to right in order of their importance in determining whether each team makes the playoffs or — if it has already clinched — the team’s playoff seed.
The charts below list the full range of outcomes for teams that are in or have a shot at the playoffs. Some teams’ trees are relatively tidy, while others’ – like the Falcons’ – are wildly convuluted. But we think they’re both helpful and fun. Note: We did not include ties, which exponentially increase the chart’s complexity, because teams rarely tie.

[LebanonFan]

Bengals scenarios here.. http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/27/upshot/nfl-playoff-picture-what-bengals-fans-should-cheer-for.html


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The Upshot

SMARTER FOOTBALL
N.F.L. Playoff Picture: What Bengals Fans Should Cheer For

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Quarterback A.J. McCarron of the Bengals, who hope to have Andy Dalton back for the playoffs.
TONY AVELAR / ASSOCIATED PRESS
By JOSH KATZ and KEVIN QUEALY
DECEMBER 26, 2015
With 31 games remaining in the season, there are two billion ways the season could end. Which of those outcomes are best for the Bengals? It’s questions like these that led us to build our N.F.L. simulator, to let you explore which games matter the most for your team’s playoff chances.

Our goal here is to give you the short version: The Bengals have clinched a playoff spot, but their position is still up in the air. They could end the season with the A.F.C.’s top seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs or they could get the last wild-card spot and play their first playoff game on the road.

At the bottom of this article you’ll find a tree that (very) exhaustively lists all of the ways the Bengals’ season could end. We have listed the games from left to right in order of their importance in determining the Bengals’ playoff seed. The two most important games, not surprisingly, are the two games that the Bengals still have to play, followed by the Chargers-Broncos game in Week 17.

The Bengals’ best outcome is to get the top seed in the A.F.C., a bye week and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. To do that, the Bengals must win out and the Patriots must lose out.

Their second-best outcome is to get the No. 2 seed, which guarantees a bye week. This is simpler: The Bengals need to win one of their remaining games and the Broncos need to lose at least one. Why not take care of both in Denver on Monday night? Even if the Bengals lose, they can still guarantee a bye week by beating the Ravens at home in Week 17 as long as the Chargers beat the Broncos to end their season.

Next, a highly likely outcome: winning the division. To do that, the Bengals must win one of their next two games or hope the Steelers lose at least one.


The worst-case scenario for the Bengals is a wild-card berth. If you follow the tree at its longest branches, that’s where many of them end. The Bengals could be as low as the No. 6 seed, playing all their playoff games on the road.

Best outcome this week: Bengals beat Broncos, Ravens beat Steelers

This analysis does not account for the possibility of ties, which are very rare.

[bengals73]

AJ McCarron better come to play in both games. The Ravens game is no walk in the park

[*pally*]

(12-26-2015, 11:13 PM)LebanonFan Wrote: Bengals scenarios here.. http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/27/upshot/nfl-playoff-picture-what-bengals-fans-should-cheer-for.html





This analysis does not account for the possibility of ties, which are very rare

less rare for the Bengals than anyone else in recent NFL history 

[WiscoFan]

Quick question: Wouldn't we have the tiebreak over the Pats (hoping that they lose to the Jets) if we beat the Broncos?

[corpjet]

(12-26-2015, 11:25 PM)bengals73 Wrote: AJ McCarron better come to play in both games. The Ravens game is no walk in the park

I just hope the Ravens sweep the Squealers and take care of business with them this afternoon!

Go Jimmy Clausen!!!

[jfkbengals]

(12-27-2015, 11:55 AM)WiscoFan Wrote: Quick question: Wouldn't we have the tiebreak over the Pats (hoping that they lose to the Jets) if we beat the Broncos?

No.  I'm not sure why people keep asking that question.

[*rfaulk34*]

(12-27-2015, 01:56 PM)jfkbengals Wrote: No.  I'm not sure why people keep asking that question.

I don't feel like doing the math, but i wonder how SOV would look if...(lot to ask) today, the ravens beat the steelers, the jets beat the pats and (monday night) the bengals beat the broncos.

Pats have a .028% lead on SOV right now but if miami loses and the ravens win, they're both 5-10 going into the last week. A bengals win in denver would boost their SOV but i don't know if it would be enough to overtake the pats.

EDIT: though, i think, common opponents would come before that and NE has a better record there.

[*rfaulk34*]

(12-27-2015, 02:42 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: I don't feel like doing the math, but i wonder how SOV would look if...(lot to ask) today, the ravens beat the steelers, the jets beat the pats and (monday night) the bengals beat the broncos.

Pats have a .028% lead on SOV right now but if miami loses and the ravens win, they're both 5-10 going into the last week. A bengals win in denver would boost their SOV but i don't know if it would be enough to overtake the pats.

EDIT: though, i think, common opponents would come before that and NE has a better record there.

Common games;
Pats 4-1
Cin 3-2

[bengal kitten uk]

Yep, our common opponents are Denver (NE L, CIN W), Pittsburgh (NE W, CIN W &L), Buffalo (NE W & W, CIN W) and Houston (NE W, CIN L).

That failure in Houston was the worst game to lose.

[Cure4CF]

(12-27-2015, 02:51 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Common games;
Pats 4-1
Cin 3-2

Thanks!