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(9 hours ago)NATI BENGALS Wrote: Why would you do that? One starting DE retired. And the other one threatened to sit out last year and asked to be traded this year which is the last year of his deal. And we re-signed two DEs to one year contracts.
Murphy and Shemar will be our starting DEs if Trey pulls some shenanigans and misses time. Hopefully not.
SS and MM are the future. 
Because he was picked 2 years ago and we are already spending another 1st at the same spot and Trey is still here.
I mean, I knew he was a bit raw and wasn't expecting much Y1. And the injury set him back some last year. But it is surely make or break in Y3.
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I will hope for the best. I expect nothing.
At this point, I am completely unwilling to give Duke Tobin the benefit of the doubt. First round picks since 2010:
Jermaine Gresham - meh
AJ Green - Ring of Honor level
Dre Kirkpatrick - barely decent
Kevin Zeitler - good, so we let him walk
Tyler Eifert - I'll give Duke a break on this one
Darqueze Dennard - bad
Cedric Ogbuehi - terrible
William Jackson III - bad
John Ross - bad
Billy Price - bad
Jonah Williams - meh
Joe Burrow - Hall of Fame level
Ja'Marr Chase - Hall of Fame level
Daxton Hill - TBD, seems meh
Myles Murphy - TBD, seems terrible
Amarius Mims - TBD, promising
Shemar Stewart - TBD
The track record is awful. The three great+ players were drafted No. 1 (Burrow), No. 4 (Green), and No. 5 (Chase) -- I don't award much credit for those. The rest is just a long, drawn out fart.
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(7 hours ago)JaggedJimmyJay Wrote: I will hope for the best. I expect nothing.
At this point, I am completely unwilling to give Duke Tobin the benefit of the doubt. First round picks since 2010:
Jermaine Gresham - meh
AJ Green - Ring of Honor level
Dre Kirkpatrick - barely decent
Kevin Zeitler - good, so we let him walk
Tyler Eifert - I'll give Duke a break on this one
Darqueze Dennard - bad
Cedric Ogbuehi - terrible
William Jackson III - bad
John Ross - bad
Billy Price - bad
Jonah Williams - meh
Joe Burrow - Hall of Fame level
Ja'Marr Chase - Hall of Fame level
Daxton Hill - TBD, seems meh
Myles Murphy - TBD, seems terrible
Amarius Mims - TBD, promising
Shemar Stewart - TBD
The track record is awful. The three great+ players were drafted No. 1 (Burrow), No. 4 (Green), and No. 5 (Chase) -- I don't award much credit for those. The rest is just a long, drawn out fart.
I don't think that Myles Murphy seems terrible, especially when you don't put Ross as terrible, but just bad. I feel like Ross and Price were both way worse picks.
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We can only hope this coaching staff and team members can get him up to speed.
Hoping for the best ! 
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(7 hours ago)JaggedJimmyJay Wrote: I will hope for the best. I expect nothing.
At this point, I am completely unwilling to give Duke Tobin the benefit of the doubt. First round picks since 2010:
Jermaine Gresham - meh
AJ Green - Ring of Honor level
Dre Kirkpatrick - barely decent
Kevin Zeitler - good, so we let him walk
Tyler Eifert - I'll give Duke a break on this one
Darqueze Dennard - bad
Cedric Ogbuehi - terrible
William Jackson III - bad
John Ross - bad
Billy Price - bad
Jonah Williams - meh
Joe Burrow - Hall of Fame level
Ja'Marr Chase - Hall of Fame level
Daxton Hill - TBD, seems meh
Myles Murphy - TBD, seems terrible
Amarius Mims - TBD, promising
Shemar Stewart - TBD
The track record is awful. The three great+ players were drafted No. 1 (Burrow), No. 4 (Green), and No. 5 (Chase) -- I don't award much credit for those. The rest is just a long, drawn out fart.
William Jackson was not bad. Far from it. He was PFFs 16th highest rated FA in 2021. Washington signed him to a 3 year $41M contract.
Gresham was also not bad. He had the 11th most yards by a tight end between 2010-2014. He also stabilized that position for the bengals for a period of time. 2x pro bowler. Gresham, statistically, had a more productive year than Mike last year, maybe the best season by a bengals TE ever in 2011.
I would assume that MOST teams first round pick hit rate looks similar.
The average hit rate for the first round is 57%.
Defining "Hit”:
A "hit" can be defined in various ways, but common indicators include a player securing a starting role, signing a second contract with their original team, or being selected to a Pro Bowl.
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Here is Dane Brugler's write up for Shemar Stewart in The Beast.
Quote: EDGE3 Shemar Stewart Texas A&M,
BACKGROUND: Shemar Stewart, who is of Jamaican descent, was born in the Miami area to his parents (Latoya and Ansell). His grandmother (Margaret Sterling) played a significant hand raising Stewart, who also has a father-son relationship with Moe Marquez, his former defensive line coach in high school. Marquez became Stewart's mentor — both he and his wife refer to Stewart as a son, and their two young children look up to Stewart as an older brother. Despite being a bigger kid, Stewart "never really thought about playing sports" until age 12, when a teacher convinced him to give football a chance. Often being the last kid picked in sixth-grade gym class at Ives Estates Park in Miami motivated Stewart to reach his athletic potential. His attitude toward football and training changed significantly after that time, and he started to get noticed by recruiters near the end of his middle school days. Stewart played on both the of f ensive and defensive lines for the Hialeah Cougars as an eighth-grader at North Miami Beach Optimist. He also developed into a talented basketball player and competed for the West Park Saints.
Stewart enrolled at Monsignor Edward Pace High, a Catholic school in Miami Gardens. He saw varsity snaps as a 6-foot-4, 215-pound freshman defensive end and blew up immediately on the recruiting trail. As a sophomore, Stewart posted 48 tackles and 15 sacks in 10 games, helping Pace to the 4A state playof f s. He was teammates his junior season with wide receiver Jeremiah Smith (who later transferred to Chaminade-Madonna and then signed with Ohio State), but Stewart played in only two games because of injuries (sprained AC joint and bone bruise in his knee) and the COVID-19 pandemic. As a senior, he earned all-state and all-county honors with 85 tackles, 40 tackles for loss and 14 sacks. Stewart received an invitation to the 2022 Under Armour All-America Game. He also lettered in basketball at Pace, averaging double-digit rebounds per game, and set the school record with a 613-pound deadlift.
A five-star recruit, Stewart was the third-ranked defensive lineman (behind Walter Nolen and Mykel Williams) in the 2022 recruiting class and the No. 1 recruit in Florida. He was a consensus top-10 recruit nationally. During his freshman year, Stewart's through-the-roof potential reached legendary status, and his recruitment took of f . He received his first of f er from Pittsburgh and collected more than 15 of f ers before the start of his sophomore year, including from Florida, Georgia, Oregon, Penn State, Tennessee and his hometown Miami, the program for which he rooted as a child. Several other top programs (LSU, Michigan, Notre Dame) entered the picture during his sophomore year. Going into his senior year, he announced a top five of Clemson, Georgia, Miami, Ohio State and Texas A&M.
After being hired as Miami's head coach in December 2021, Mario Cristobal made Stewart his first call and unleashed a full-court press to keep the local product home. But Stewart's connection with the Texas A&M coaching staf f led him to commit elsewhere. (His parents also wanted him to leave the area to avoid any temptations.) Stewart was the third-ranked player in former head coach Jimbo Fisher's famed 2022 class, which included eight five-star recruits — five of them on the defensive line (of the five, only Stewart finished his college career with the Aggies). After three seasons in College Station, Stewart decided to skip his senior year and enter the NFL Draft. He opted out of Texas A&M's 2024 bowl game and accepted his invitation to the Senior Bowl.
STRENGTHS:
● Rare athletic balance and fluidity for a 285-pounder
● Explosive of f the ball with the flexibility to turn the corner and flatten
● Uses long arms and natural power to stab and separate from initial blocks
● Able to shake free with a cross-chop, club-rip or a variety of dif f erent swipes
● Rangy player and doesn't labor in transitions, allowing him to chase down ball carriers
● Smart contain player and sets a hard edge
● Uses wide base and body flexibility to root himself at the point of attack (rarely pushed out of his gap)
● Lateral quickness helps him blow up backside runs
● Surprises pulling blockers and ball carriers with closing burst
● Plays his butt of f for all four quarters and competes with competitive edge (nickname is "The Menace")
● Versatile skill set, which allows him to play multiple positions up front (three-/4i-/five-/seven-technique)
WEAKNESSES:
● Major finishing issues (26.9 percent missed tackle rate in college)
● Struggles to break down on the move and stay under control as tackler (too many fly-by misses)
● Move-to-move sequencing as a pass rusher is still in the development phase
● Can get caught upright at times and spends too much time hand fighting, leaving him late to react to the run
● Basement-level sack production (4.5 sacks on 680 career pass rush snaps)
SUMMARY: A one-year starter at Texas A&M, Stewart lined up primarily as an edge rusher in head coach Mike Elko's four-man front, also spending time head-up over the tackle and inside over the B-gap. He is the type of prospect who will test the "traits over production" slogan that NFL teams subscribe to, as he never had more than 1.5 sacks in any of his three seasons in College Station. However, his tape shows a far more disruptive player — he led the Aggies in pressures (39) in 2024.
Stewart explodes out of his stance and is capable of creating immediate knockback or winning high-side with upfield burst/flexibility. His counter measures require maintenance, although he finds a lot of success based on his initial swipe or long-arm move. The No. 1 area in which he needs to improve is as a finisher. He has the athleticism to get to the ball but has no business missing as many tackles as he does, especially given his power and movements.
Overall, Stewart needs to mature his rush ef f i ciency and finishing skills, but he has a rare combination of talent and motor to be a game-wrecker against both the pass and the run. His best football is ahead of him.
GRADE: 1st round (No. 9 overall)
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(5 hours ago)Synric Wrote: Here is Dane Brugler's write up for Shemar Stewart in The Beast.
Not as bleak as most on here… I’m assuming we will here “Dane Brugler” doesn’t know anything.
9th Overall player on his board, sheesh. I hope that the bengals can figure this out and coach him up. I’m guessing if he had only marginal sack stats 5-6/year, or 15-18 over his collegiate career, he would have been a top 10 lock.
He might be a player that regrets not staying in college for NIL, putting together a 12+ sack season and going top 5 in 2026.
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Drew Sample level production
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Questionable pick, but welcome.
Walker and Nolen going back to back, right before the pick, kind of stings.
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(5 hours ago)bonesaw Wrote: Drew Sample level production
Amarius Mims level production. For different reasons, but I can do it too.
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Shamar Stewart, in less than 12 hours has went from a WTF pick for me… to I am rooting and pulling hard for the guy. I get the mixed (mostly bad) reactions, but let’s see it pan out. It’s a very real
Possibility that he will be our 2nd most productive pressure lineman on the team in 2025.
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Don't be surprised if we see another Defensive Linemen drafted tonight.
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Some grades seen, so far
NFL.com...B
CBS Sports...C
Sports Illustrated...C-
USA Today...B
WalterFootball...D
The Ringer...C
PFF...No letter grade. They gave the pick an 'average' score.
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Some Shemar Stewart vs Arkansas.
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I was watching Todd McShay during the draft last night and he had Stewart #7 on his big board. He loves Stewart and went on and on after the pick about how good he thought he was going to be for the Bengals.
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(6 hours ago)Brownshoe Wrote: I don't think that Myles Murphy seems terrible, especially when you don't put Ross as terrible, but just bad. I feel like Ross and Price were both way worse picks.
Sure. You can decide which flavor of "terrible" you want to prioritize. I struggle to get past ZERO SACKS, but Ross and Price certainly sucked too. Ross did have at least one monster game, so I gave him the "bad".
Regardless, they're not good first round picks. I think we can agree on that much.
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(Today, 12:06 AM)Bengalbug Wrote: Very interesting read on Stewart.
https://www.sbnation.com/2025/2/20/24368685/shemar-stewart-nfl-draft-profile-texas-am
That's helpful. A couple of takeaways from the article you posted:
"He played in a weird defense at A&M, but in the NFL, he’s got the potential to be a star."
"If there’s one thing I think Stewart needs to improve on, it’s simply finishing plays. I think he’s such a forceful and explosive athlete that he flies in out of control and ends up flying past the QB or not being able to throttle down to get the sack. It’s very much like if you gave an eight-year-old the keys to an F1 car; it would look awesome but some of the throttling down stuff would be an adventure. I think Stewart gets unfairly labeled a “project” when some of his work and pass rush plan is that of a first year starter who can be a superstar--he just needs to figure out how to finish."
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Here is Duke Tobin (hand on bag) and Mike Tomlin (other side of the drill) waching Shemar Stewart going through position drills at the Senior Bowl. The Senior Bowl seems to be very important to the Bengals scouting process and no one had a better week in Mobile than Shemar Stewart.
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(4 hours ago)JaggedJimmyJay Wrote: Sure. You can decide which flavor of "terrible" you want to prioritize. I struggle to get past ZERO SACKS, but Ross and Price certainly sucked too. Ross did have at least one monster game, so I gave him the "bad".
Regardless, they're not good first round picks. I think we can agree on that much.
Over 40% of first round picks are not good picks.
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