List of QBs with most passing yards in first four seasons.

[WhoDeyWho]

(06-10-2015, 01:16 PM)djs7685 Wrote: Here's my issue as simply as I can put it.

"Andy is good because he has some better stats than Carson."

"Gresham sucks because he's not as good as other TEs in the league."

Those mindsets come from some of the same people on here, and that doesn't make sense to me. Why not compare Gresh to the TEs of the past 10 years in Cincinnati if that's how you want to judge the QB? Why not judge Andy against the other QBs in the league if that's how you want to judge Gresh? My issue isn't with anyone that remains consistent and fair in their comparisons. If you're consistent, then my point isn't about you.

Also, where are people talking about how bad he is? I've honestly not seen even 1 person that isn't a troll account saying that he's terrible. There are a few in this thread that are definitely overhyping the guy, but I don't see much of the opposite on this message board. The new board has seemingly weeded out a lot of the anti-Andy trolls.

Carson is definitely better than some are willing to give him credit for, but with how he left here, some people will always hold that against him and critique him MUCH harder than they would if he left on good terms. CP is a solid QB and had an amazing couple of years. He was considered top 3 at his position for at least a year or two, and that's impressive.

Gresham doesn't even play for this team anymore, and when he did, most of the complaints were about his head being in the wrong place, not that he wasn't better than some other TE playing for some other team.  

[*Nately120*]

(06-10-2015, 01:16 PM)djs7685 Wrote: Carson is definitely better than some are willing to give him credit for, but with how he left here, some people will always hold that against him and critique him MUCH harder than they would if he left on good terms. CP is a solid QB and had an amazing couple of years. He was considered top 3 at his position for at least a year or two, and that's impressive.

You forgot to point out that Carson is much better than his predecessor that we drafted, Akili Smith.

I mean, we say the franchise is going in the right direction, but the improvement from Smith to Palmer was far greater than the improvement from Palmer to Dalton!  But really, it's all about pointing out which stats fit your agenda.

Dalton broke Palmer's TD record....BUT Palmer had the most TDs in the entire NFL when he did it and Dalton was ranked 15th (in overall QB rating) and 3rd in TD passes and was 6 TDs behind the guy in 2nd place and a staggering 22 TDs behind the guy in 1st (the same guy Palmer was 4 TDs ahead of in 2005).  It's pretty easy/tempting to minimize and maximize things to fit our agendas.

I pointed out in the "Best Bengals QB Evaaaaa!!!!" thread that Dalton's was the only one of the four who not only never (as of 2014) occupied the #1 or #2 best QB in the league slot, but that his peak thus far was #15.  So it seems like comparing Dalton's numbers on raw statics (wins, TD/INT rates) to Palmer without taking the rest of the NFL's aggregate performance into account is the chief strategy to make Dalton look like the high watermark of Bengals' QB-ing in the 21st century.

[Mike M (the other one)]

I get annoyed when people try to compare players from 10 years ago to now.
The rules have changed, passing is much easier now than it was then.
10 years ago, getting over 4k yards meant a good season from your QB.
Fast forward to now, 4k is not the same, since 2007, none of the single season passing leaders have had less than 4,700 passing yards. Seriously, Brees by himself has had 5 5k seasons (just missed 6 5k seasons, 48 yards shy last season). Prior to 2007 you have to go all the way back to Marino busting 5k in 1984.

If you want to compare Andy vs Peyton, then compare them by where they ranked in passing yards in their respective seasons.

IE Mannings first 4 years vs Dalton's first 4 years.
Manning:
98 - 3739 yards Ranked: 3rd
99 - 4135 yards Ranked: 3rd
00 - 4413 yards Ranked: 1st
01 - 4131 yards Ranked: 2nd

Dalton:
11 - 3398 yards Ranked: 16th
12 - 3669 yards Ranked: 16th
13 - 4293 yards Ranked: 7th
14 - 3398 yards Ranked: 15th

Palmer:
04 - 2897 yards Ranked: 19th (missed 3 games, using 222 yards/game, it would've bumped him up to ~10th)
05 - 3836 yards Ranked: 4th
06 - 4035 yards Ranked: 5th
07 - 4131 yards Ranked: 5th

Ok... looks like '13 was more of an anomaly than the norm for Dalton, while Peyton's worst year was better than Palmer's best years and Palmer's worst year wasn't too far off from Dalton's best year (if you factor in a full season).

What does this tell us?
Peyton and Palmer were special and Dalton is just slightly better than average.

[*Nately120*]

I'm all about comparing Dalton to Dalton and methinks the most important thing is whether 2015 Dalton looks more like 2013 or 2014 Dalton. Carson Palmer and Peyton Manning and Dan Marino and Geno Torreta don't factor in, right?

[Shake n Blake]

(06-08-2015, 10:36 PM)Rhinocero23 Wrote: Two points...

You say a good performance, I have no issue with that, it was good. My issue is it was referred to as a "shredding" performance. 

BTW a total of 4 QB's out of the 16 they played had 3 TD's - that is 1/4 of all the Qb's they faced. You said 3 (+Dalton in the league...nice slant) It was not a good Defense and it was not a "shredding" performance. "Good" I agree with.

Also the lengths I went to was posting the stats...AKA facts. I know it really makes the "Yea but Dalton is above average" point of view hard to defend, sorry.

A 143.9 passer rating with 3 TDs isn't "shredding". Got it.

(06-10-2015, 04:14 AM)fredtoast Wrote: The fact is that Palmer has a higher career interception percentage (3.2) than Dalton (3.1).

Guess that is going to make you pretty mad, eh?

Certainly you're making this up. Dalton is the king of INT's. Honestly though, they both have an INT problem. It's just that Palmer was often given a pass for his. Dalton is given the opposite of a pass.

[Shake n Blake]

(06-10-2015, 02:04 PM)Mike M (the other one) Wrote: I get annoyed when people try to compare players from 10 years ago to now.
The rules have changed, passing is much easier now than it was then.
10 years ago, getting over 4k yards meant a good season from your QB.
Fast forward to now, 4k is not the same, since 2007, none of the single season passing leaders have had less than 4,700 passing yards. Seriously, Brees by himself has had 5 5k seasons (just missed 6 5k seasons, 48 yards shy last season). Prior to 2007 you have to go all the way back to Marino busting 5k in 1984.

If you want to compare Andy vs Peyton, then compare them by where they ranked in passing yards in their respective seasons.

IE Mannings first 4 years vs Dalton's first 4 years.
Manning:
98 - 3739 yards Ranked: 3rd
99 - 4135 yards Ranked: 3rd
00 - 4413 yards Ranked: 1st
01 - 4131 yards Ranked: 2nd

Dalton:
11 - 3398 yards Ranked: 16th
12 - 3669 yards Ranked: 16th
13 - 4293 yards Ranked: 7th
14 - 3398 yards Ranked: 15th

Palmer:
04 - 2897 yards Ranked: 19th (missed 3 games, using 222 yards/game, it would've bumped him up to ~10th)
05 - 3836 yards Ranked: 4th
06 - 4035 yards Ranked: 5th
07 - 4131 yards Ranked: 5th

Ok... looks like '13 was more of an anomaly than the norm for Dalton, while Peyton's worst year was better than Palmer's best years and Palmer's worst year wasn't too far off from Dalton's best year (if you factor in a full season).

What does this tell us?
Peyton and Palmer were special and Dalton is just slightly better than average.

I agree that rankings among peers is a better way to compare QB's, but I don't agree with using yards as the main stat to compare. I'd use passer rating:

Palmer:
2004: 23rd (led NFL in INT%)
2005: 2nd
2006: 6th
2007: 14th (led NFL in INTs)

Average rank: 11.3

Dalton:
2011: 20th
2012: 13th
2013: 15th (5th in NFL in INTs)
2014: 25th (8th in INT%)

Average rank: 18.3

Not that huge of a gap really. Also consider that Palmer led the league in INT's or INT% twice and Dalton hasn't led that category at all. Palmer basically lived off his reputation he built from 05-06, but he never had any great years other than that. His 2007 season was very similar to Dalton's 2013 season, compared to their peers.

It got worse for Palmer after year 4. Hopefully Dalton's career doesn't follow a similar path.

[*Nately120*]

(06-10-2015, 08:23 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: A 143.9 passer rating with 3 TDs isn't "shredding". Got it.


Certainly you're making this up. Dalton is the king of INT's. Honestly though, they both have an INT problem. It's just that Palmer was often given a pass for his. Dalton is given the opposite of a pass.

I addressed this in post #133

[tenacious-B]

(06-04-2015, 10:22 AM)WhoDeyWho Wrote: They were 4-12 when he took over.  As the QB, he has to get some credit for the turn around.  With Gresham gone, Dalton and Green are basically the oldest skill players on the offense.  It's not like he inherited a good team.

 
Exactly. You could make an argument that the 2010 Bengals were just as bad as the '82 Dolphins and the '97 Colts.

[*Nately120*]

(06-10-2015, 10:15 PM)tenacious-B Wrote:  
Exactly. You could make an argument that the 2011 Bengals were just as bad as the '83 Dolphins and the '98 Colts.

The 2011 Bengals were "just as bad" as a 12-4 team OR a 3-13 team?

[Shake n Blake]

(06-10-2015, 10:14 PM)Nately120 Wrote: I addressed this in post #133

I saw that post. Not sure how you addressed anything, other than making an excuse for Palmer. 

Like I said, Palmer got a pass for his INTs. Some still give him a pass to this day. 

[Rhinocero23]

(06-10-2015, 04:14 AM)fredtoast Wrote: The fact is that Palmer has a higher career interception percentage (3.2) than Dalton (3.1).

Guess that is going to make you pretty mad, eh?

Not really

[Rhinocero23]

(06-11-2015, 12:01 AM)Shake n Blake Wrote: I saw that post. Not sure how you addressed anything, other than making an excuse for Palmer. 

Like I said, Palmer got a pass for his INTs. Some still give him a pass to this day. 

What excuse...he used data to disprove the misnomer that Palmer threw INT's more frequently than what Dalton does. 
You may not be one, or maybe you are, that spew that Dalton's advantage over Palmer is he throws for less INT. It is not true. 

No intelligent poster would argue that Dalton is in the same league as Palmer as a pure passer...so the argument became "yea but Dalton throws less int's. Once again...not true. 

See people who understand football understand big arm QB's are going to throw more Int's. Like homerun hitters are going to strikeout more. So Palmer gets a "pass" on Int's  thrown 60 yards down the field when Dalton does not because he cant throw the ball 60 yards. Intermediate passes picked off because there is not enough zip on the ball drive any fan crazy whether it is Palmer , Dalton or anyone. My issue with Dalton's Int's are that they are not (or should not be) difficult throws. They are pretty shallow routes...he just does not have the arm to throw the long out over 25 yards...period. 

[Brownshoe]

(06-11-2015, 12:25 AM)Rhinocero23 Wrote: What excuse...he used data to disprove the misnomer that Palmer threw INT's more frequently than what Dalton does. 
You may not be one, or maybe you are, that spew that Dalton's advantage over Palmer is he throws for less INT. It is not true. 

No intelligent poster would argue that Dalton is in the same league as Palmer as a pure passer...so the argument became "yea but Dalton throws less int's. Once again...not true. 

See people who understand football understand big arm QB's are going to throw more Int's. Like homerun hitters are going to strikeout more. So Palmer gets a "pass" on Int's  thrown 60 yards down the field when Dalton does not because he cant throw the ball 60 yards. Intermediate passes picked off because there is not enough zip on the ball drive any fan crazy whether it is Palmer , Dalton or anyone. My issue with Dalton's Int's are that they are not (or should not be) difficult throws. They are pretty shallow routes...he just does not have the arm to throw the long out over 25 yards...period. 

Lol what are you talking about? He posted stats showing that Palmer throws more INTs than Dalton. Then you go on about homerun hitters going to get more strike outs and all that... apparently you don't realize that Dalton throws more TDs too. I guess you just like talking out of the side of your neck.

[tenacious-B]

(06-10-2015, 10:21 PM)Nately120 Wrote: The 2011 Bengals were "just as bad" as a 12-4 team OR a 3-13 team?

*2010 Bengals, '82 Dolphins and the '97 Colts...my bad. I don't know why I listed the QB's rookie seasons. I meant to list the years prior.

[Murdock2420]

(06-11-2015, 12:25 AM)Rhinocero23 Wrote: No intelligent poster would argue that Dalton is in the same league as Palmer as a pure passer..

Yet this fan base ran him out of town throwing trash on his lawn and verbally abusing his wife at games. Now, people are starting to go after Dalton the same way.

Once again, I will state my belief that while Dalton is not the most talented guy in the league, he absolutely has the physical ability to be a very good and successful QB. I'd love to find the graph that showed the difference between Dalton in the regular season at 1 PM vs Prime time games and Playoff games. That gap is why I believe it is mental and not physical. The pressure gets too much and he struggles. 

[*Nately120*]

(06-11-2015, 12:01 AM)Shake n Blake Wrote: I saw that post. Not sure how you addressed anything, other than making an excuse for Palmer. 

Like I said, Palmer got a pass for his INTs. Some still give him a pass to this day. 

It's not an excuse...Palmer throws too many INTs.  I was pointing out that Fred (a guy I tend to like a lot) did the very lawyerly thing of presenting the statistics in a manner that made it seem like there was far more difference between the two than there really is.

What is interesting is that they have almost identical INT % as I think it's quite interesting that if/when Dalton throws as many passes as Palmer the stats would place him at throwing 1 less INT (actually, 1.44 less if we consistently extend data to the tenth's column).  Also interesting is that they both had 20 INT seasons and they had the EXACT number of attempts that season (both their highest number of attempts in their careers).

I’m not trying to make excuses, in fact the more I look at the stats the more I see Marvin Lewis and/or Mike Brown being somewhat blessed with two overall decent QBs and not making the most of the stability.  And I'm not sure how many people give Palmer a pass for his INT issues, but I'm not one of them. Again, I just think it is amusing that we are comparing a metric where Dalton and Palmer are inconceivably similar. It doesn't get much closer than the .03% separation in INT percentage and the fact that they both had career high season attempts of EXACTLY 586 and both tossed EXACTLY 20 INTs is implausible and humorous.

Where am I saying one is "better" than the other?

EDIT: The closest thing I say to indicate Palmer is better than Dalton is that Palmer was (ever so briefly) performing in the top echelons of NFL QBs. The question is can Dalton return to, or exceed his 2013 performance and what can Palmer do in Arizona before the curtain falls.

[Mike M (the other one)]

(06-10-2015, 08:33 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: I agree that rankings among peers is a better way to compare QB's, but I don't agree with using yards as the main stat to compare. I'd use passer rating:

Palmer:
2004: 23rd (led NFL in INT%)
2005: 2nd
2006: 6th
2007: 14th (led NFL in INTs)

Average rank: 11.3

Dalton:
2011: 20th
2012: 13th
2013: 15th (5th in NFL in INTs)
2014: 25th (8th in INT%)

Average rank: 18.3

Not that huge of a gap really. Also consider that Palmer led the league in INT's or INT% twice and Dalton hasn't led that category at all. Palmer basically lived off his reputation he built from 05-06, but he never had any great years other than that. His 2007 season was very similar to Dalton's 2013 season, compared to their peers.

It got worse for Palmer after year 4. Hopefully Dalton's career doesn't follow a similar path.

I know, but the OP title is:
List of QBs with most passing yards in first four seasons.

So I wanted to stay on topic and show the OP and everyone else that he's not as good as everyone seems to believe. Can he be good? Yes, the ability appears to be there, but we've only seen it once out of 4 years so far. Now, for last year, I'll give him a bit of a pass, hard to put up numbers when your top targets are down. So as long as everyone is healthy this year, then I expect that he better have another top 10 year. If not, then we need to think about a replacement.

[*Nately120*]

(06-11-2015, 11:26 AM)Mike M (the other one) Wrote: I know, but the OP title is:
List of QBs with most passing yards in first four seasons.

So I wanted to stay on topic and show the OP and everyone else that he's not as good as everyone seems to believe. Can he be good? Yes, the ability appears to be there, but we've only seen it once out of 4 years so far. Now, for last year, I'll give him a bit of a pass, hard to put up numbers when your top targets are down. So as long as everyone is healthy this year, then I expect that he better have another top 10 year. If not, then we need to think about a replacement.

This entire topic is based upon a tweet that probably was pretty simple and one-dimensional that really isn't deserving of the amount of discussion we are giving it.  Again my first take was “Hmm, not sure how important this stat really is, but Marvin Lewis got both of these guys, so he may be pretty fortunate and bad at capitalizing.”  Then again, I look to blame him so take it for what it’s worth.

[djs7685]

(06-11-2015, 11:34 AM)Nately120 Wrote: This entire topic is based upon a tweet that probably was pretty simple and one-dimensional that really isn't deserving of the amount of discussion we are giving it.  Again my first take was “Hmm, not sure how important this stat really is, but Marvin Lewis got both of these guys, so he may be pretty fortunate and bad at capitalizing.”  Then again, I look to blame him so take it for what it’s worth.

Honestly, the huge amount of discussion usually comes from one side deciding to be dicks about something that the other said.

For example, in this thread and some others, I've started off by mentioning that passing yards alone doesn't mean a whole lot, Andy is right about average compared to his peers, and that he should probably play better if he wants to be considered "good". Something like that generally starts an argument like..


"Yeah, sure, the guy that broke franchise records and threw for 33 TDs is so bad, yeah, right, tell me about it. Sure, uh huh. The guy that threw all of those yards is bad. Yep. 40 wins. 40 wins. Dan Marino. 40 wins. No weapons. Every team has good WRs except the Bengals. Our WRs all suck. Andy does it all. 40 wins. Peyton Manning. Andy LED the team to 40 wins but in the playoffs and primetime it's a TEAM game dummy!"

There are 2 guys on the boards that get REALLY mad if you don't get on your knees for Andy Dalton. I guarantee that you'll find 90% of Andy arguments/discussions flying off the handle right when one of them starts with the absurd excuses and backwards thought processes. IE: Andy is good because he threw more volume stats this one time than Carson. Gresham sucks because he's worse than his peers. Stuff like that. Or calling real, non-subjective stats "made up". That usually happens a lot too. Andy is good because you're allowed to judge him by just 1 season, we have excuses for the other 3. Everyone else is judged by their entire careers, no excuses.

This new board has seemingly weeded out the extremist Andy hating club. I really don't see many guys running around saying "Andy sucks" and whatnot every time he's brought up. However, the Army is still in full force with excuses lined up and waiting to be spewed.

[WhoDeyWho]

(06-11-2015, 11:26 AM)Mike M (the other one) Wrote: I know, but the OP title is:
List of QBs with most passing yards in first four seasons.

So I wanted to stay on topic and show the OP and everyone else that he's not as good as everyone seems to believe. Can he be good? Yes, the ability appears to be there, but we've only seen it once out of 4 years so far. Now, for last year, I'll give him a bit of a pass, hard to put up numbers when your top targets are down. So as long as everyone is healthy this year, then I expect that he better have another top 10 year. If not, then we need to think about a replacement.

If everyone is healthy and it is obvious that Dalton is the bottleneck in our success, I'd be the first one saying he has to go.