Projected RB Stats (Coley Harvey)

[Bengalholic]

In his latest mailbag, Coley Harvey was asked to do some stat projections for the RB's. Here what he had...

The estimates below are all a guess, because that's about all one can do with statistics of any kind this time of year. We'll see how close I get to those estimates by the end of the season. Before we get into the numbers, it bears mentioning that Jeremy Hill appears in line to be Cincinnati's primary running back this season. After a banner rookie season, the Bengals will want to ride the young ballcarrier a bit more this year. He proved last season that he can take being a workhorse back, and with a full offseason finally under his belt, he has a better idea of what it will take to get through a full season. Giovani Bernard still will be an integral part of the offense, but at this time it seems that he might be less of a runner than the Bengals tried to make him last season. He and Burkhead appear to have real chances to be used in space as slot-style receivers or out-of-the-backfield pass-catchers.

So, with that said, here's a super-rough projection of what we might see numbers-wise for the Bengals' ballcarriers this season, assuming the three asked about stay healthy.

Hill: 240 carries/1,200 yards rushing, 40 catches/175 yards receiving; Bernard: 175 carries/750 yards rushing, 50 catches/500 yards receiving; Burkhead: 40 carries/175 yards rushing, 20 catches/150 yards receiving.

If that happens, the three running backs will account for 455 carries for 2,125 yards and 110 catches for 825 yards. If this happens, these three alone would have rushed for 22 yards less than the Bengals did as a team last season on 37 fewer carries. The trio also would have nearly 200 more yards receiving than all of Cincinnati's running backs did last season. Those are some optimistic guesses, huh? Then again, had Bernard been healthy all last season, his numbers would have been dramatically higher.

Read all the questions/answers here.

[Stormborn]

This sounds very good. The more you feed Hill on the ground, the more you can feed Bernard through the air, and the less you have to change blocking styles for two different backs.

[*jason*]

Maybe this is the year that Hue figures out that he can do more with Gio than run him between the tackles and on bubble screens... Maybe.

[whodey4life84]

Gio needs to be used mainly in space. Hill needs to be our feature back ala Leveon Bell. I don't mind giving Gio maybe 10-12 total touches a game at max but that's it. We have a stud feature rb in Hill and not lets use him like one.

[Shake n Blake]

(06-07-2015, 12:28 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: Hill: 240 carries/1,200 yards rushing, 40 catches/175 yards receiving; Bernard: 175 carries/750 yards rushing, 50 catches/500 yards receiving; Burkhead: 40 carries/175 yards rushing, 20 catches/150 yards receiving.

Read all the questions/answers here.

I doubt Jeremy Hill will average 4.4 yards per catch.  

I also don't see Bernard getting 175 carries this year, as long as Hill is healthy.

Hill, Gio and Rex combined for 399 carries last year. Harvey predicts 455 for them this year, but I can't see it happening. You have to account for how much Andy runs (60 carries last year) and how many WR runs/reverses Hue calls for (16 times last year). There just wouldn't be enough carries to go around if Hill/Gio/Rex get that many.

I like his Burkhead prediction, as I think he'll be more involved, especially in the passing game. I just think the split between Hill and Gio will be similar to the Benson/Scott split in 2011. That year, Benson got 273 carries and Scott got 112.

[J24]

(06-07-2015, 02:33 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: I doubt Jeremy Hill will average 4.4 yards per catch.  

I also don't see Bernard getting 175 carries this year, as long as Hill is healthy.

Hill, Gio and Rex combined for 399 carries last year. Harvey predicts 455 for them this year, but I can't see it happening. You have to account for how much Andy runs (60 carries last year) and how many WR runs/reverses Hue calls for (16 times last year). There just wouldn't be enough carries to go around if Hill/Gio/Rex get that many.

I like his Burkhead prediction, as I think he'll be more involved, especially in the passing game. I just think the split between Hill and Gio will be similar to the Benson/Scott split in 2011. That year, Benson got 273 carries and Scott got 112.

175 isn't  to much out of the realm of possibility. He had 170 carries in 13 and 168 last season. We have to good backs and both should be used.

[*bengalfan74*]

Agree with Shake, I think Hill will get the lion's share of carries with Gio coming in around 100 -125. And I don't think Hill will have 40 catches more like 20. I'd say Gio and Burkhead will both have more catches than Hill.

[Shake n Blake]

(06-07-2015, 02:39 PM)J24 Wrote: 175 isn't  to much out of the realm of possibility. He had 170 carries in 13 and 168 last season. We have to good backs and both should be used.

I get that, but Gio's carries were reduced once he came back from injury and Hill had taken over. Over the last 6 weeks (including playoff) he averaged 7.5 carries, which comes out to 120 for a full season. 175 could happen, but not if Hill gets 240 and Rex gets 40. That's a total increase of 49 carries over last year. Someone would have to lose carries for that to be realistic.

We have two good backs, but one is a better runner and thus will get the majority of the carries. That does not mean Gio "won't be used" though. Gio will always be used, just probably not as much as some would like. Barring injuries, I see around 120 carries and 50 catches for Gio. I think that's plenty of work. As a bonus, that level of work should keep Gio healthy and fresh. Keep in mind he's been injured in both seasons where he had around 170 carries.

[wolfkaosaun]

I could see this happening. Jeremy Hill will have a full year of knowing he will be getting a bulk of the carries. Gio thrives more as a change of pace back, but even last year had a down year (didn't hit holes like he would his rookie season or college years).

It wouldn't surprise me at all if Gio has over 1,000 yards from scrimmage. I mean, he's done it the past two seasons.

Only thing is I don't really see Rex getting those types of numbers. I get there's hype around him, but the guy is behind Hill and Gio, one of the best and youngest RB duos in the NFL. It's hard to get him in the game when those two are taking the load off of another in rotations.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

If Hill gets 20 to 25 carries a game he could end up leading the league in rushing, that is how good i find him to be.

Gio should be used as the scat back/spell back and Burkhead will probably only be used in case of injury. Rex could be
used in the Slot but we cannot forget Mo or Moore who will be competing at that spot as well. I just don't want us to use
the RB's like we did early last year. We know what he have in Hill and he can take the bulk of the carries.

Gio is best the way he was used in 2013 with BJGE.

We do have a fine RB tandem i must say.

[J24]

(06-07-2015, 03:29 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: I get that, but Gio's carries were reduced once he came back from injury and Hill had taken over. Over the last 6 weeks (including playoff) he averaged 7.5 carries, which comes out to 120 for a full season. 175 could happen, but not if Hill gets 240 and Rex gets 40. That's an increase of 49 carries over last year. Someone would have to lose carries for that to be realistic.

We have two good backs, but one is a better runner and thus will get the majority of the carries. That does not mean Gio "won't be used" though. Gio will always be used, just probably not as much as some would like. Barring injuries, I see around 120 carries and 50 catches for Gio. I think that's plenty of work. 

Hill is the better back in between the tackles no doubt but Gio in the open space is an  unbelievable. Both guys will get there fair share of touches and  both guys will make a ton of plays.  Gio might get less carries but he will still get plenty of touches.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(06-07-2015, 03:50 PM)J24 Wrote: Hill is the better back in between the tackles no doubt but Gio in the open space is an  unbelievable. Both guys will get there fair share of touches and  both guys will make a ton of plays.  Gio might get less carries but he will still get plenty of touches.

Used correctly they will be very tough to stop.

[Shake n Blake]

(06-07-2015, 03:50 PM)J24 Wrote: Hill is the better back in between the tackles no doubt but Gio in the open space is an  unbelievable. Both guys will get there fair share of touches and  both guys will make a ton of plays.  Gio might get less carries but he will still get plenty of touches.

I agree. They're both explosive playmakers. Gio is great in space and has great hands. Hill can pretty much do it all and has great vision and speed to bust runs open.

For the first time since the days of Corey and maybe Rudi, I'm thrilled with our RB situation.

[Stormborn]

(06-07-2015, 03:38 PM)wolfkaosaun Wrote: I could see this happening. Jeremy Hill will have a full year of knowing he will be getting a bulk of the carries. Gio thrives more as a change of pace back, but even last year had a down year (didn't hit holes like he would his rookie season or college years).

It wouldn't surprise me at all if Gio has over 1,000 yards from scrimmage. I mean, he's done it the past two seasons.

Only thing is I don't really see Rex getting those types of numbers. I get there's hype around him, but the guy is behind Hill and Gio, one of the best and youngest RB duos in the NFL. It's hard to get him in the game when those two are taking the load off of another in rotations.

I think this was due to using more zone concepts with Jeremy, Gio wasn't nearly as successful in them.

As for Rex, he'll likely have more catches than rushes this year, we'll use him in the slot and out of the backfield. He'll basically be a RB playing WR.

[wolfkaosaun]

(06-07-2015, 04:04 PM)Stormborn Wrote: I think this was due to using more zone concepts with Jeremy, Gio wasn't nearly as successful in them.

As for Rex, he'll likely have more catches than rushes this year, we'll use him in the slot and out of the backfield. He'll basically be a RB playing WR.

i just don't see why they would use him in the slot though. If Jones is healthy, Sanu will be in the slot. Don't forget we signed Denarius Moore and Wright has apparently looked good in OTAs thus far. I just don't see him getting many touches. Especially not around 60 touches all year.

[J24]

(06-07-2015, 03:57 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: I agree. They're both explosive playmakers. Gio is great in space and has great hands. Hill can pretty much do it all and has great vision and speed to bust runs open.

For the first time since the days of Corey and maybe Rudi, I'm thrilled with our RB situation.

Agreed its kinda of like we have Corey Dillon & James Brooks on the same team now.

[Stormborn]

(06-07-2015, 04:32 PM)wolfkaosaun Wrote: i just don't see why they would use him in the slot though. If Jones is healthy, Sanu will be in the slot. Don't forget we signed Denarius Moore and Wright has apparently looked good in OTAs thus far. I just don't see him getting many touches. Especially not around 60 touches all year.

Well we may not wait until January to use him in case of injuries.

Of we could reduce Sanu's snaps slightly.

[BFritz21]

I hope that Gio doesn't get that many touches because Hill is a beast and needs to be our bell cow.  We can let him carry us to victory because a team can't load the box to stop him and also have enough defenders to stop our other weapons.  

Hill seems to love that role, embrace it, and just have fun in it, so it would be stupid to take him out of it, both from a standpoint of what he can do from a production standpoint and changing the way a defense plays us, opening up things for other players and making Dalton's life a lot easier.

My only worry is Marvin's loyal to a fault, ass we all know, and I'm afraid that he'll feel like he needs to get Gio the ball at crucial times when we need to give it to Hill and let him finish the deal.

If Hill got close to that many touches in some games (maybe not every game) in catches out of the backfield, sweeps, and things like that, it's ok if that's what the game calls for and it's what will work on the defense, but I just hope that we don't try to force ourselves to make sure he's involved.  

[BengalChris]

Hill, provided he's healthy all year, will rush for more than 1200 yards. That's only 75 yards a game. Try more like 1500-1600 yards rushing unless the coaches just shut him down. He's a guy who wears down defenses when he gets 20 plus carries, so that's what I'd like to see him get in most games, except games where we clearly have the game in hand, and then I'd give Burkhead some work.

[milksheikh]

I think Hill will get around 260 carries while Bernard gets around 140ish while Burkhead gets maybe around 40-50 carries.


I think Bernard will have the most receiving yards of all of them and I am almost 100% sure Hill will have atleast 1,400 yards rushing.