Advanced Wide Receiver Stats

[wolfkaosaun]

Here's some advanced stats and in depth looks at some of the premiere wide receivers. I'll add more stats as time goes on.

Receptions and Dropped Passes
Josh Docston had 79 total receptions, 5 dropped passes
Michael Thomas had 56 total receptions, 5 dropped passes
Corey Coleman had 72 total receptions, 10 dropped passes
Will Fuller had 62 total receptions, 10 dropped passes
Braxton Miller had 26 total receptions, 2 dropped passes

Drop Rate
Josh Docston: 6.0%
Sterling Shepherd: 7.5%
Michael Thomas: 8.2%
Corey Coleman: 12.2%
Will Fuller: 13.9%

Contested Catches Percentage
Josh Docston: 20 receptions on 37 contested targets. 54%
Laquon Treadwell: 13 receptions on 25 contested targets. 52%
Michael Thomas: 13 receptions on 25 contested targets. 52%
Corey Coleman: 13 receptions on 28 contested targets. 46%
Will Fuller: 11 receptions on 28 contested targets. 39%
Braxton Miller: 2 receptions on 4 contested targets. 50%

Targets Within 5 Yards Of The Line Of Scrimmage
Corey Coleman: 28 reception on 33 targets. 84.8% catch percentage. 9.2 yards per target. 9.0 YAC/Rec. 2 drops
Sterling Shepherd: 32 receptions on 38 targets. 82.1% catch percentage. 8.5 YAC/Rec. 2 drops
Braxton Miller: 7 receptions on 7 targets. 100% catch percentage. 6.6 yards per target. 6.9 YAC/Rec. 0 drops
Will Fuller: 19 receptions on 23 targets. 82.6% catch percentage. 6.1 yards per target. 8.0 YAC/Rec. 3 drops
Laquon Treadwell: 34 receptions on 42 targets. 81% catch percentage. 5.9 yards per target. 5.9 YAC/Rec. 4 drops
Michael Thomas: 14 receptions on 19 targets. 73.7% catch percentage. 5.7 yards per target. 6.1 YAC/Rec. 2 drops
Josh Docston: 18 receptions on 22 targets. 81.8% catch percentage. 5.3 yards per target. 4.7 YAC/Rec. 2 drops

Targets 10-19 Yards Down The Field
Josh Docston: 30 receptions on 36 targets. 83.3% catch percentage. 484 yards. 13.4 yards per target. 1 drop
Michael Thomas: 16 receptions on 21 targets. 76.2% catch percentage. 283 yards. 13.5 yards per target. 1 drop
Sterling Shepherd: 28 receptions on 37 targets. 75.7% catch percentage. 439 yards. 11.9 yards per target. 2 drops
Corey Coleman: 14 receptions on 25 targets. 56% catch percentage. 276 yards. 11.0 yards per target. 0 drops
Will Fuller: 16 receptions on 29 targets. 55.2% catch percentage. 322 yards. 11.1 yards per target. 2 drops
Laquon Treadwell: 18 receptions on 33 targets. 54.2% catch percentage. 315 yards. 9.5 yards per target. 4 drops

Targets 20+ Yards Down The Field
Sterling Sharp: 11 receptions on 17 targets. 64.7 catch percentage. 423 yards. 24.9 yards per target. 0 drops
Will Fuller: 17 receptions on 28 targets. 60.7% catch percentage. 708 yards. 25.3 yards per target. 4 drops
Josh Docston: 17 receptions on 32 targets. 53.1% catch percentage. 552 yards. 17.3 yards per target. 0 drops
Michael Thomas: 7 receptions on 14 targets. 50% catch percentage. 178 yards. 12.7 yards per target. 1 drop
Laquon Treadwell: 10 receptions on 22 targets. 45.5% catch percentage. 327 yards. 14.9 yards per target. 1 drop
Corey Coleman: 14 receptions on 35 targets. 45% catch percentage. 592 yards. 16.9 yards per target. 4 drops

Random Stats
- Shepherd forced 21 missed tackles after receptions
- Shepherd also had 37 receptions and 1 drop on passes that went 10+ yards
- Coleman caught 9 of 15 targets in the red zone
- Docston caught 9 of his 19 contested targets 15+ yards down the field
- Coleman had 14 catches on 23 targets at 15+ yards down the field with Seth Russell as his QB, but only 3 receptions on 11 targets from other QBs
- Fuller caught 15 passes on 31 targets on 3rd down, a 48% catch percentage. However, he also had 4 dropped passes on 3rd down.
- Thomas caught 10 passes on 16 targets on 3rd down, a 63% catch percentage.

[Stormborn]

The deeper you look, Shepard is a top 40 player in this class without a doubt.

Doctson is the clear #1 too.

[Bengal Dude]

(03-17-2016, 08:02 PM)Stormborn Wrote: The deeper you look, Shepard is a top 40 player in this class without a doubt.

Doctson is the clear #1 too.

Shepard is becoming a very popular name around the draft community.

[Burma]

Thanks wolf. Good stuff.

Besides Shepherd there are 4 other WR I am hopeful the Bengals may select. If you get a chance could you add them to your list.

Tyler Boyd, Pitt
Roger Lewis, Bowling Green
Malcolm Mitchell, Georgia
Tajae Sharpe, UMass

[wolfkaosaun]

(03-17-2016, 08:26 PM)Burma Wrote: Thanks wolf.  Good stuff.

Besides Shepherd there are 4 other WR I am hopeful the Bengals may select.  If you get a chance could you add them to your list.

Tyler Boyd, Pitt
Roger Lewis, Bowling Green
Malcolm Mitchell, Georgia
Tajae Sharpe, UMass

Working on Boyd and Mitchell.

Sharpe is someone I've been watching more of. Haven't watched too much of Lewis, honestly.

[RoyleRedlegs]

So Fuller is basically bad right?

Highest drop % and lowest catch % when contested....that's the opposite of good right?

[wolfkaosaun]

(03-17-2016, 09:39 PM)RoyleRedlegs Wrote: So Fuller is basically bad right?

Highest drop % and lowest catch % when contested....that's the opposite of good right?

Overall he has an overall 13.2% drop rate. Closest would be Treadwell with a 12.8%.

When it came to contested catches, Fuller did struggle.

However, he had a 61% catch rate when it was 20+ yards deep. But he did drop 4 balls, too.

[Benton]

(03-17-2016, 09:39 PM)RoyleRedlegs Wrote: So Fuller is basically bad right?

Highest drop % and lowest catch % when contested....that's the opposite of good right?

Some of that may be fixable. I really don't know. I thought he did very well on second and third downs.

But ultimately that's why I think Fuller won't go until late second. He's got good combine numbers, but teams are going to look at his hands as a concern. 

[RoyleRedlegs]

(03-17-2016, 09:53 PM)wolfkaosaun Wrote: Overall he has an overall 13.2% drop rate. Closest would be Treadwell with a 12.8%.

When it came to contested catches, Fuller did struggle.

However, he had a 61% catch rate when it was 20+ yards deep. But he did drop 4 balls, too.

Sounds a lot like Tedd Ginn Jr. 

[Bilbo Saggins]

These stats are fine and dandy but I'm sure that there are a lot of teams that look at Fuller's 40 time and start drooling. It comes down to the age old quandary or whether to draft based on athletic potential vs. how polished a guy is. A team may believe that Doctson maxes out at an 8.9 where Fuller could max out at a 9.9. Do you take the risk or go with the safer bet in that case?

[TGISunday]

(03-18-2016, 12:09 AM)RoyleRedlegs Wrote: Sounds a lot like Tedd Ginn Jr. 

44 receptions for 739 yards, 10 tds, I'll take it.

Ted offers return duty, not sure Will even does that.


Bigger question for the whole field of receivers, which ones know more than an abbreviated route tree due to running some derivative of the air raid offense in college? 

[TGISunday]

Also agree about Shepard being pushed up the boards, probably due to the thin free agency and draft markets at wideout this year. Not sure he's a solution on the outside at the next level, but he's really polished at slot.

[RoyleRedlegs]

(03-18-2016, 07:57 AM)TGISunday Wrote: 44 receptions for 739 yards, 10 tds, I'll take it.

Ted offers return duty, not sure Will even does that.


Bigger question for the whole field of receivers, which ones know more than an abbreviated route tree due to running some derivative of the air raid offense in college? 

That's not first/second round talent though.

That's the big issue with Fuller. 

[wolfkaosaun]

(03-18-2016, 01:34 AM)Bilbo Saggins Wrote: These stats are fine and dandy but I'm sure that there are a lot of teams that look at Fuller's 40 time and start drooling.  It comes down to the age old quandary or whether to draft based on athletic potential vs. how polished a guy is.  A team may believe that Doctson maxes out at an 8.9 where Fuller could max out at a 9.9.  Do you take the risk or go with the safer bet in that case?

Fuller has something that Docston doesn't, which is speed. However, Docston is a great overall receiver. He's best with intermediate routes, but once looking at his route tree, he's the most well rounded of all the wide receivers.

Also, he's more athletic than Fuller. Fuller has speed, but he also struggles catching the ball.

(03-18-2016, 07:57 AM)TGISunday Wrote: Bigger question for the whole field of receivers, which ones know more than an abbreviated route tree due to running some derivative of the air raid offense in college? 

It honestly looks like Docston does. Or at least has the highest production when it comes down to overall. He has a much less drop rate and one of the best successes when it comes to numerous routes.

(03-18-2016, 08:06 AM)TGISunday Wrote: Also agree about Shepard being pushed up the boards, probably due to the thin free agency and draft markets at wideout this year.  Not sure he's a solution on the outside at the next level, but he's really polished at slot.

Shepard's biggest problem is his size. He struggles against very physical corners. But he can make guys miss easily and if a corner gives him space and doesn't use press, Shepard wins those matches way more often than not. He'd be a great slot receiver.

[Thundercloud]

Thanks for the work, Wolf. It is really interesting stuff.

[BURROWorBUST]

My WR board. Being as objective as I can be.

#1 Josh Doctson – of all the candidates at WR in this draft, I think he gives us what we need most. A true deep threat who can take some pressure off of AJ Green. We need someone who excels on the outside.

#2 Will Fuller – I've got him behind Doctson because of the drops, otherwise I think they're pretty similar. Fuller ran a faster 40, but not by much.

#3 Corey Coleman – He lacks the height of Doctson and he might not be as strong on the outside. Still, this kid is a gamer, and he does not want for speed.

#4 Sterling Shepard – Similar to Coleman, but even more decidedly a slot guy. If the other 3 are gone, I think he'd be a solid pick. It would push us to take someone who might be a less recognized deep threat later in the draft.

#5.Laquon Treadwell – he's got some of the bulk that Doctson and Fuller lack, but also lacks some of the speed. Mayock thinks he'd be better suited as a slot guy.

[Bengal Dude]

I guess I'll post this here.

Apparently, the Bengals have Michael Thomas ranked as their #1 WR. That's what a "source" told NFL Draft Countdown. Not sure if the source is Thomas' agent trying to spur up interest or if the Bengals are wading into the smokescreen pool.

[SunsetBengal]

(03-25-2016, 04:17 PM)Bengal Dude Wrote: I guess I'll post this here.

Apparently, the Bengals have Michael Thomas ranked as their #1 WR. That's what a "source" told NFL Draft Countdown. Not sure if the source is Thomas' agent trying to spur up interest or if the Bengals are wading into the smokescreen pool.

You may be onto something with the smokescreen angle.  They seem to do that, most every year.

[Bengal Dude]

(03-25-2016, 04:56 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: You may be onto something with the smokescreen angle.  They seem to do that, most every year.

The Bengals are typically bad at smokescreens, but they have an advantage this year with the WR class. That standout guy isn't there and we've met with all the top guys. So there's no telling which one they actually like.

[wolfkaosaun]

(03-25-2016, 04:58 PM)Bengal Dude Wrote: The Bengals are typically bad at smokescreens, but they have an advantage this year with the WR class. That standout guy isn't there and we've met with all the top guys. So there's no telling which one they actually like.

The thing is, even if their top guy isn't there, they still know what they're getting with another option