Please Don't!

[TKUHL]

(04-27-2016, 05:15 PM)leonardfan40 Wrote: Exactly, Boldin is who I always compare him to. 

Seems like everybody wanted us to sign Boldin this year at age 35, but over a decade ago (im sure hes not as fast now as he once was) he ran a 4.7ish 40 yard dash. Boldin is slower than Treadwell, but for some reason people keep going crazy about his 40 time. Boldin put together a fine career, and I definitely think looking back he was worth a 1st rounder. 

Yup, seems every other person would rather have a fast guy that drops balls, limited Rt running over a sure handed good rt runner. The 40 time is kinda overrated. Fitzgerald, Bolden, Dez Bryant was about the same, even Jerry Rice ran a slower 40.

[jeremydc]

Seems we are f'd either way. Fuller and Thomas will be available at 24 but the consensus is to wait until the second for Thomas. They both wil be gone by then.


Do we go BPA (C/DT/TE?)

or reach ?

[Ned Ludd]

Given that the Bengals' pick will be around 3AM here, a sleep-deprived and slightly ratty me would prefer not to hear Fuller's name. I reckon I can learn to love him though.

[jeremydc]

Haha, I'm in China (13 hours ahead). It'll start @ 9am here.

Not looking forward to the Sunday afternoon games though (2am Mondays in China).

[fredtoast]

(04-27-2016, 05:52 PM)ShowMeUrTDs Wrote: All speed, athleticism, and no hands!! Yeah, pretty close.

I see a lot of "confirmation bias" in this thread.  everyone is bring up examples to prove their own point and refusing to acknowledge examplse that prove them wrong.

Demaryious Thomas did not know how to run routes because he played for a "run only" team at Georgia Tech.  Jeremy Maclin was supposed to have bad hands and just relied on athleticism.

The fact is that no player coming out of college is a finished product.  NFL coaches look at the faults in all of the players and try to identify what they can fix and what they can not.  Sometimes guys who have excelled in college with good hands and route running have maxed out their potential and flop because they can not get any better in the NFL.

[Stormborn]

(04-28-2016, 11:28 AM)fredtoast Wrote: I see a lot of "confirmation bias" in this thread.  everyone is bring up examples to prove their own point and refusing to acknowledge examplse that prove them wrong.

Jeremy Maclin was "all speed and no hands" when he came out of college, and I could come up with a lot of other examples.  

The fact is that no player coming out of college is a finished product.  NFL coaches look at the faults in all of the players and try to identify what they can fix and what they can not.  Sometimes guys who have excelled in college with good hands and route running have maxed out their potential and flop because they can not get any better in the NFL.

If a man with baby hands can't catch well, how do you teach him to catch? Hope his hands grow and inch?

I've always been someone who doesn't make a big deal about hand measurements if the player in question never had problems catching with them. Now if he has had problems, it should be viewed as problem, a problem big enough to not have him as a 1st round consideration.

[fredtoast]

(04-28-2016, 11:36 AM)Stormborn Wrote: If a man with baby hands can't catch well, how do you teach him to catch? Hope his hands grow and inch?

I've always been someone who doesn't make a big deal about hand measurements if the player in question never had problems catching with them. Now if he has had problems, it should be viewed as problem, a problem big enough to not have him as a 1st round consideration.

Hand size is either an issue or it is not.  You can't say you don't think hand size has much to do woth catching a football and then say hand size is the reason that fuller has dropped some passes.  If there are other issues that determin the ability ro catch a football then fuller can improve those other issues.

People said the same thing about Teddy Bridgewaters hand size and that proved to be meaningless.

How big are Wes Welkers hands?  

[Okeana]

Draft a 1st round WR. I don't want us over reaching for a 2nd round receiver like fuller or thomas because of a run on wide receivers.

[Okeana]

(04-28-2016, 11:43 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Hand size is either an issue or it is not.  You can't say you don't think hand size has much to do woth catching a football and then say hand size is the reason that fuller has dropped some passes.  If there are other issues that determin the ability ro catch a football then fuller can improve those other issues.

People said the same thing about Teddy Bridgewaters hand size and that proved to be meaningless.

How big are Wes Welkers hands?  

the guy has the smallest hands in the draft in like 20 years and he drops balls like crazy.  I think its reasonable to say the two are linked, but your fredtoast and you have made up your mind.

[fredtoast]

(04-28-2016, 11:50 AM)Okeana Wrote: the guy has the smallest hands in the draft in like 20 years and he drops balls like crazy.  I think its reasonable to say the two are linked, but your fredtoast and you have made up your mind.

If you want to argue that hand size is what determines ability to catch then that is fine.  But you can't say it doesn't matter with other players and only applies to Fuller.

[Bengalbug]

(04-28-2016, 11:50 AM)Okeana Wrote: the guy has the smallest hands in the draft in like 20 years and he drops balls like crazy.  I think its reasonable to say the two are linked, but your fredtoast and you have made up your mind.

Initially I was not on board with fuller but the more I read the more i like. He has extreme speed and runs fluid routes. Maybe the drops are due to hands but I think that can be corrected. Most of the time I would say drops are due to lack of focus.

Keep this in mind fuller would be our 4th relieving option this year... But when is out there on 2nd and long or 3rd down he will completely change the way the defense plays the bengals.

Not only will it open up our receivers but our screen and draw runs.

If he ends up like desean Jackson on the field he is worth a first. Keep in mind desean has always been the most productive reciever on his team. Imagine if he had an eifert and green to open him up even more.

I'd rather have Treadwell, Doctson, Coleman (in that order) but I'm getting on board and would be happy to have a home run hitter.

[fredtoast]

https://nflbeliefs.wordpress.com/2014/11/27/wide-receiver-hand-size-to-catch-rate-study/



Furthermore we believed there would a direct connection between hand size (measured from pinky to thumb) to the rate at which you caught accurate passes.

To test this theory, we used Pro Football Focus’s catch rate, which is just the number of drops divided by the number of catchable balls, over the past 3 seasons. The only players used were ones who had at least 100 catchable targets over the past 3 years and any player without a specific hand length mentioned did not qualify. This eliminated a number of older players like Andre Johnson and Anquan Boldin because there hands were not measured at their combine or pro days. It also eliminated players like Wes Welker and Victor Cruz because they also did not have hand measurements done.

We were left with 42 players who fit the criteria and we plotted the data points.

.  .  .  


These data points do not seem to indicate that hand size has much of an impact on the drop rate. Even further, when you look at the correlation coefficient, an equation that measures the relationship between two variables, it’s clear this data indicates there is almost no correlation at all.

It seemed like a sound theory; players with smaller hands would have less room for error when catching passes and vice versa; thus this would affect the rate at which they would drop balls. This idea seemed reaffirmed when someone like Larry Fitzgerald, who has legendary hands and a very low drop rate (2nd lowest in our study) has massive hands measured at 10.5 inches, but the data clearly indicates otherwise.

Of course, with a sample size this small, it’s very possible this conclusion could change over time and more and more players have hand measurements at pro days and the combine. For now, with the information we do have, no team should be ever avoid drafting a receiver with small hands because they believe they will have trouble catching passes, or simply believe a player with large hands should catch the ball with ease.






Go to link to see graph of plotted data points.

[Okeana]

something tells me if I googled studies on hand size I could find another one countering that argument. Fuller is not a first round WR plain and simple. He was a fast receiver coming into the process and was projected as a 3rd round WR. Somehow he shows he's fast which everyone knew and now he's a first round draft grade ? Shrug I will laugh my ass off when all the first round WR guys cry during the season when this guy flops.

[Bengalbug]

(04-28-2016, 12:09 PM)Okeana Wrote: something tells me if I googled studies on hand size I could find another one countering that argument. Fuller is not a first round WR plain and simple. He was a fast receiver coming into the process and was projected as a 3rd round WR. Somehow he shows he's fast which everyone knew and now he's a first round draft grade ? Shrug I will laugh my ass off when all the first round WR guys cry during the season when this guy flops.

He also runs great routes is smart and competitive.

[JungleRock85]

Fuller isn't a first round WR and I think reasons for why are found throughout this thread and many others. If the Bengals draft him in the first I am still going to root for the best but I am not going to be shocked if he drops a lot of passes and either can't go over the middle at all or gets absolutely demolished and injured when he does so.

[Stormborn]

(04-28-2016, 11:43 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Hand size is either an issue or it is not.  You can't say you don't think hand size has much to do woth catching a football and then say hand size is the reason that fuller has dropped some passes.  If there are other issues that determin the ability ro catch a football then fuller can improve those other issues.

People said the same thing about Teddy Bridgewaters hand size and that proved to be meaningless.

How big are Wes Welkers hands?  

It is an issue, I never said it wasn't for Fuller. Fuller doesn't have big or natural hands. You can be a natural hands catcher on film with smaller than average hands, you can have bigger than average hands and not be a natural hands catcher on film. Fuller has the worst of both worlds.

[Bengalbug]

(04-28-2016, 12:17 PM)JungleRock85 Wrote: Fuller isn't a first round WR and I think reasons for why are found throughout this thread and many others. If the Bengals draft him in the first I am still going to root for the best but I am not going to be shocked if he drops a lot of passes and either can't go over the middle at all or gets absolutely demolished and injured when he does so.

I guess we will see. Honestly none of us on this board have the knowledge and insight into the future. If he is our guy he will instantly change our offense. He runs good routes and is fast.

[fozzie11]

honestly, i'd rather us take Braxton Miller at #24 than take Fuller

[GreenCornBengal]

(04-28-2016, 01:48 AM)Stormborn Wrote: He provides a relatively accurate comparison (not entirely because Ginn is a returner too) towards a prospect that signifies he isn't a first round player, and continue to place him in the first?

Unless Mayock believes Ginn was worth that pick...

compares him to a guy that was drafted 9th overall, bounced around a bunch and never lived up to his potential. Had a few productive seasons and has never topped 800 yards. GO AHEAD AND DRAFT HIM! Mayock is a moron.

[Bengal Dude]

The Ginn comparison is a fair one since they both have blazing speed and a knack for drops. I'm not super on board with the pick, but I'm preparing myself for the pick. If he's the pick, then you have to hope that he reaches the DeSean Jackson potential that some people have applied to him.