Looking ahead to 2017 draft

[WrongVerb]

So is it too early to speculate on the 2017 draft? Of course it is, but that doesn't mean I'm not going to do it anyway.

A few things. First, the Bengals should get the maximum of 4 compensation picks and I'm expecting them all to be in the 3rd and 4th rounds. And they can now be traded. Second, we obviously don't know what players will be available and what prospect rankings and draft boards will look like so I'm not going to mention any specific players. Finally the team might look to get some compensation -- probably a 3rd or 4th round pick -- for McCarron as he's almost certain to hit the free agent market after 2017.

Basically I think day 1 needs to see the Bengals draft a rush defensive end to rotate in with a soon-to-be aging Dunlap. They should try to trade up in the draft to make that happen. Day 2 should see the Bengals take a slot corner to groom to take over the majority of duties from Adam Jones, a running back to replace either Gio if he walks or Hill if he isn't expected to sign a long-term deal, and an edge setting defensive end to groom behind Johnson. Day 3 should see the Bengals draft for depth at LB, QB, DT, and OL. They can ignore TE (Eifert's almost certain to re-sign or be franchise tagged), FS, SS, and wide CB. If Gio re-signs and Hill improves after his sophomore slump, RB might be able to be ignored as well. Also at WR, the team has a lot of unknowns going into the 2016 season; great if they all pan out, but if not then perhaps a slot receiver will be in order.

Last thing...while I'll be pulling for the Bengals all season to win and become Super Bowl champs, there's a small part of me that hopes things go tits up for the team in 2016. The 2017 draft is supposed to be loaded, so having lots of high picks would be great for the team going forward.

[milksheikh]

Michael Johnson is older than Carlos Dunlap...

[Truck_1_0_1_]

(05-02-2016, 06:02 PM)WrongVerb Wrote: Basically I think day 1 needs to see the Bengals draft a rush defensive end to rotate in with a soon-to-be aging Dunlap.

:s

Dunlap and I are the same age and I'm in an exponentially worse shape than he is.

I feel so far from aging, its ridiculous.

What were you trying to get at?

[leonardfan40]

Comp picks won't all be that high, very likely we don't even get a 3rd (which you can only have one of I believe), might get a couple 4ths, but more likely I'd bet we get one in each of rounds 4-7

[JungleRock85]

I am with you on Defensive End for 2017. That is far and away the position I think we need to look to add talent to for that draft class. Even if Hunt or Clarke so some progression this year I still think we have to look toward the future at that position. Dunlap is great but isn't getting any younger while Michael Johnson really hasn't ever been the upcoming FA Michael Johnson from a few years back. I would rank the needs for 2017 a year out as likely being....

1. Defensive End - discussed above

2. Offensive Tackle - This is my sneaky need for next draft. Whitworth may be gone after this upcoming season and that leaves Ogbuehi and Fisher who are expected to do a lot for us but are unproven for now. Aside from them what will the Bengals have at the position??? Winston is likely to retire or need replaced after this season as well. I would expect us to use a mid round selection, especially with so many comp. picks expected to replenish our depth at this spot.

3. Cornerback - This should be another depth selection. Kirk is likely gone with WJ III drafted so that could leave Pac, Jackson, Dennard, Shaw on the roster which is still a lot of talent but they will need to fill out the last couple spots at this position.

4. Running Back - This depends on Hill bouncing back (think he will) and if we are able to sign Gio back. Even with both guys on the roster it may be a good idea to draft some depth in the event Burkhead or Peerman are gone.

5. Wide Receiver - I think Boyd will end up being the real deal. However, we still need more depth at the position next season unless LaFell can get back to form and is re-signed then I think this need could end up being a top 2 or 3 choice.

[WrongVerb]

(05-02-2016, 08:03 PM)Truck_1_0_1_ Wrote: :s

Dunlap and I are the same age and I'm in an exponentially worse shape than he is.

I feel so far from aging, its ridiculous.

What were you trying to get at?

Age 30 is ancient in football years and Dunlap gets there in a few years. Grabbing his replacement in 2017 insures a smooth transition going forward.

[WrongVerb]

(05-02-2016, 08:17 PM)leonardfan40 Wrote: Comp picks won't all be that high, very likely we don't even get a 3rd (which you can only have one of I believe), might get a couple 4ths, but more likely I'd bet we get one in each of rounds 4-7

This is my thinking: the Bengals got a 3rd and 4th for losing Johnson and Collins a couple years ago. Collins wasn't even a starter until he left. That's similar to losing M.Jones and Smith this past season, except Smith is a starter. Right there I expect 2 3rd round comp picks. Sanu will probably be a 4th rounder if he starts and produces for ATL. Reggie Nelson is going from starting for CIN to starting for OAK. That should bring another 4th rounder or maybe a 3rd.

[*ochocincos*]

I hope to see the following pending FAs re-signed before the 2017 draft:
Zeitler
Bernard
Hewitt
Williams
Perhaps Whitworth for another 1-2 year deal?

I don't think the Bengals need 10+ players from the 2017 draft, so I expect (hope) they use some of the comp picks to trade up.

DE is an obvious need early if none of Hunt, Clarke, or Hardison steps up as a quality rotational DE. Hunt is also entering a contract year, so if he doesn't put up this year, he's likely not getting re-signed anyway.

Interior OL early if Bodine struggles again. That could either be a center or a guard depending on how Westerman is groomed and coming along.

If Shawn Williams decides to leave in FA or has not come along by the end of 2016, then safety becomes a need. However, as of right now, I have faith in Williams and Derron Smith developing successfully and think safety can be a Day 3 pick.

A WR and CB will likely be drafted at some point given Brandon LaFell and DreK entering contract years this year. Whether that pick is early, mid, or late depends on the development of our current depth players and if either or both LaFell and DreK is re-signed.

Another LB in the mid-rounds since both Maualuga and Burfict will be entering a contract year in 2017 and Dansby is a 1-year rental.

Perhaps a Day 3 NT behind Billings since Peko is entering a contract year.

I can see a RB at some point since Bernard, Burkhead, and Peerman are all entering a contract year this year.

Probably OT since at least Winston will likely be gone. For me, it goes from a late-round pick to a mid-round if Whitworth also doesn't re-sign.

[leonardfan40]

(05-03-2016, 02:57 PM)WrongVerb Wrote: This is my thinking: the Bengals got a 3rd and 4th for losing Johnson and Collins a couple years ago. Collins wasn't even a starter until he left. That's similar to losing M.Jones and Smith this past season, except Smith is a starter. Right there I expect 2 3rd round comp picks. Sanu will probably be a 4th rounder if he starts and produces for ATL. Reggie Nelson is going from starting for CIN to starting for OAK. That should bring another 4th rounder or maybe a 3rd.

It doesn't work quite that way. The initial process involves ranking players gained and players lost via FA. Highest paid players (average annual value) gained cancel out highest lost. We didn't sign any this offseason that i can think of (players cut don't count), so that part can be ignored. A team can have a maximum of 4 comp picks, and no more than one in the 3rd round. 

Then they are ranked against the rest of the league. Something like the highest paid 5% qualify for 3rd rounders. This means guys that get paid like Osweiler, Norman, etc will earn 3rd rounders. None of our players signed for more than about $8 mil/yr so that means a 3rd is far fetched. Playing time and postseason honors also factor in, but not nearly as much as pay and total players signed/lost. Sanu will be our 2nd highest pick at about $6.5mil/yr (not smith) because of the salary, then Reggie about $4.25 mil/yr, and Smith $3.5 mil/yr. Lamur would be next but that would put us over 4 picks. 

Edit:

http://overthecap.com/compensatory-draft-picks-cancellation-chart/

here is a link, if you scroll down to the bengals they also have our players listed for rounds 4-7. They also have Gilberry who I forgot about, but he won't get us one either.

[BengalChris]

Odds on a 1st round corner are 40%, 60% if we actually need one.

In the last 11 drafts we've selected a corner in the 1st round five times and three times in the last 5 drafts.

[Truck_1_0_1_]

(05-03-2016, 02:54 PM)WrongVerb Wrote: Age 30 is ancient in football years and Dunlap gets there in a few years. Grabbing his replacement in 2017 insures a smooth transition going forward.

His contract expires before he turns 30.

Yet again; :s

[J24]

Looking ahead we need to get more bodies on the Defensive Line and we need to become more athletic at LB.

[Hammerstripes]

I would't rule out an offensive tackle next year.

If the team isn't sold on Fisher as the LT replacement, then it becomes a pretty high priority.

[Bengal Dude]

(05-11-2016, 12:46 PM)Hammerstripes Wrote: I would't rule out an offensive tackle next year.

If the team isn't sold on Fisher as the LT replacement, then it becomes a pretty high priority.

I don't think they view Fisher as the LT of the future. I believe they're looking for Ced to fill that role. If anything, we'll be looking for a guy who will play RT.

[3wt]

1. DE - we need a really dangerous defensive end to go opposite Dunlap - while Dunlap still has it.  Both Dunlap and Johnson are starting to get older.
2. WR - I want a stud WR with world class speed to go with our corps - a deep threat with explosion & good hands
3. Safety - I want someone like Keanu Neal who can cover and decapitate ball carriers and recievers.
4. Center - If this hasn't resolved itself then maybe this is #1
   

[RagnarLothbrok]

I think we are jumping the gun here a little bit on DE replacements for Dunlap and Johnson. Dunlap still has at least 3 or 4 highly productive years left in him. And I mean highly productive. With advancements in the medical field, I think we can expect the new guys coming in to have a longer "shelf life" than those coming in 6-10 years ago. I just think it is not realistic to make Dunlaps eventual replacement the #1 priority in the next draft. Maybe 2 or 3 drafts from now it should be considered, but not immediately right now.

[SunsetBengal]

(05-15-2016, 02:00 PM)RagnarLothbrok Wrote: I think we are jumping the gun here a little bit on DE replacements for Dunlap and Johnson. Dunlap still has at least 3 or 4 highly productive years left in him. And I mean highly productive. With advancements in the medical field, I think we can expect the new guys coming in to have a longer "shelf life" than those coming in 6-10 years ago. I just think it is not realistic to make Dunlaps eventual replacement the #1 priority in the next draft. Maybe 2 or 3 drafts from now it should be considered, but not immediately right now.

I'm going to have to disagree with you, on DE not being a draft priority heading into '17.  While I fully expect another 4-6 years of good production from Carlos Dunlap, I'm not so sure the same holds true for Michael Johnson.  While he has proven to be a steady starter, with at least average production, it's looking more and more like his 2013 season was an anomaly.  After that we have Clarke and Hunt.  Yes, read that again, Clarke and Hunt, who have done basically, nothing impressive. 

Unless one of those placeholders does something amazing this year, I would fully expect the Bengals to be full-on looking at DE as their top pick in '17.

[RagnarLothbrok]

(05-15-2016, 03:22 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: I'm going to have to disagree with you, on DE not being a draft priority heading into '17.  While I fully expect another 4-6 years of good production from Carlos Dunlap, I'm not so sure the same holds true for Michael Johnson.  While he has proven to be a steady starter, with at least average production, it's looking more and more like his 2013 season was an anomaly.  After that we have Clarke and Hunt.  Yes, read that again, Clarke and Hunt, who have done basically, nothing impressive. 

Unless one of those placeholders does something amazing this year, I would fully expect the Bengals to be full-on looking at DE as their top pick in '17.

I think finding a suitable back up to warm up the pine is a good idea because you are right about there being absolutely no depth behind the starting pair, I don't think that it needs to be priority #1. There are a few variables that I think might warrant equal or greater consideration next year. 

We don't know who we are replacing Reggie Nelson with, though it is likely to be Williams. There is definitely going to be a drop off in production between Nelson and Williams and that is to be expected, but Williams might not be our long term answer. Then we turn our attention to center. We are in desperate need of an elite center and I hope Westerman can come in and challenge Bodine for the starting roll.

In conclusion, I can live with a few more seasons of Michael Johnson playing at a middle of the pack production. What we need to worry about is the drop off at safety and the lackluster production at center. Then again, I don't want to over draft for a need regardless of how much of a need it is.

[SunsetBengal]

(05-15-2016, 03:34 PM)RagnarLothbrok Wrote: I think finding a suitable back up to warm up the pine is a good idea because you are right about there being absolutely no depth behind the starting pair, I don't think that it needs to be priority #1. There are a few variables that I think might warrant equal or greater consideration next year. 

We don't know who we are replacing Reggie Nelson with, though it is likely to be Williams. There is definitely going to be a drop off in production between Nelson and Williams and that is to be expected, but Williams might not be our long term answer. Then we turn our attention to center. We are in desperate need of an elite center and I hope Westerman can come in and challenge Bodine for the starting roll.

In conclusion, I can live with a few more seasons of Michael Johnson playing at a middle of the pack production. What we need to worry about is the drop off at safety and the lackluster production at center. Then again, I don't want to over draft for a need regardless of how much of a need it is.

I agree with most of what you say.  However, we all know that the Bengals haven't put a high draft pick value on the Safety position, in recent years.  They do, however consider DE to be a "premium" position, just below QB, OT, CB, and WR.  And let's not forget how screwed the team would be if Dunlap or Johnson were to go down with any sort of serious injury..

[phil413]

In general, they're going to have some extra picks and maybe even another high one as it could be a ripe time to deal McCarron. They could have the ammo to get either one really high pick or pony up for say 3 picks in the first 50. I agree that if the DE's don't work out that it will be a possible high need. With the versatility they have on the OL and Whit IMO signing another short deal, they can afford to take any OL position high as well. Then you go through some of the other needs and try to develop another QB if the class looks good or sign a vet. There is no need for a long term QB if Andy continues to play well, so if McCarron's stock is high you make the move and save his long term money for a need.