Finally getting some legitimate analysis of Kirkpatrick's play in '15

[Luvnit2]

(08-03-2016, 05:27 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: I would say slightly above average is just fine when you look at the success rate of all corners even those in the 1st round.  Lets just reflect on his draft year and the year after in the 1st round.

Morris Claiborne #6 pick-  I would call this a bust for Dallas
Mark Barron #7 pick- TB traded him for 4/6th round pick, 3rd year in.. Bust
Stephen Gilmore #10 pick- has been a solid pick
Dee Miliner - #9 pick-  has not lived up to his draft pick,, possible bust
Desmond Trufant- #22-  Success
DJ Hayden #12-  might be a backup this year, Raiders declined 5th year option.. not looking good.
All of theses picks except Trufant were  above Dre's #17.  Outside of Gilmore and Trufant, I would take Dre over all the others.

What relevance does draft position mean by year #2? If draft position was an exact science no team would ever miss a top 10 pick (which Dre was not) and all top 10 picks would be future HOF players.

[*bfine32*]

(08-03-2016, 05:27 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: I would say slightly above average is just fine when you look at the success rate of all corners even those in the 1st round.  Lets just reflect on his draft year and the year after in the 1st round.

Morris Claiborne #6 pick-  I would call this a bust for Dallas
Mark Barron #7 pick- TB traded him for 4/6th round pick, 3rd year in.. Bust
Stephen Gilmore #10 pick- has been a solid pick
Dee Miliner - #9 pick-  has not lived up to his draft pick,, possible bust
Desmond Trufant- #22-  Success
DJ Hayden #12-  might be a backup this year, Raiders declined 5th year option.. not looking good.
All of theses picks except Trufant were  above Dre's #17.  Outside of Gilmore and Trufant, I would take Dre over all the others.

Two things that immediately stick out to me:

Claiborne and Dre have almost identical stats in the same amount of time in the NFL, but one's a bust and one's slightly above average.

Mark Barron is not a CB, but I would take him any day of the week over Dre

Now if you look at the CBs that went immediately after Dre (the ones we actually had a chance to get) you have:

Janoris Jenkins
Casey Hayward
Trumaine Johnson
Josh Robinson

Go to the next year and look at the CBs that went immediately after the Bengal pick and you have:
Desmond Trufant
Xavier Rhoades
Darrius Slay
Johnathan Banks

How many of them would you take over Dre?

[Essex Johnson]

(08-03-2016, 06:10 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Two things that immediately stick out to me:

Claiborne and Dre have almost identical stats in the same amount of time in the NFL, but one's a bust and one's slightly above average.

Mark Barron is not a CB, but I would take him any day of the week over Dre

Now if you look at the CBs that went immediately after Dre (the ones we actually had a chance to get) you have:

Janoris Jenkins
Casey Hayward
Trumaine Johnson
Josh Robinson

Go to the next year and look at the CBs that went immediately after the Bengal pick and you have:
Desmond Trufant
Xavier Rhoades
Darrius Slay
Johnathan Banks

How many of them would you take over Dre?

Barron was drafted as a DB for Tampa Bay, they traded him away for 4/6 pick and then he started playing LB.. so yes Barron was a bust at DB.. no way Clairborne had a better year than Dre last year plus he was #7 pick in draft so yes he is a bust so far.. Barron was #7 pick.. so to trade like three years later and get a 4/6 for a previous #7 pick in draft.. that equals did not work out.  My point is some act like all #1 rounders have great success but in reality many do not achieve that level of play.  Dre is not close to a bust... and is still a starter where some of these players are not or are in much worse shape than Dre

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(08-03-2016, 05:27 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: I would say slightly above average is just fine when you look at the success rate of all corners even those in the 1st round.  Lets just reflect on his draft year and the year after in the 1st round.

Morris Claiborne #6 pick-  I would call this a bust for Dallas
Mark Barron #7 pick- TB traded him for 4/6th round pick, 3rd year in.. Bust
Stephen Gilmore #10 pick- has been a solid pick
Dee Miliner - #9 pick-  has not lived up to his draft pick,, possible bust
Desmond Trufant- #22-  Success
DJ Hayden #12-  might be a backup this year, Raiders declined 5th year option.. not looking good.
All of theses picks except Trufant were  above Dre's #17.  Outside of Gilmore and Trufant, I would take Dre over all the others.

(08-03-2016, 06:10 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Two things that immediately stick out to me:

Claiborne and Dre have almost identical stats in the same amount of time in the NFL, but one's a bust and one's slightly above average.

Mark Barron is not a CB, but I would take him any day of the week over Dre

Now if you look at the CBs that went immediately after Dre (the ones we actually had a chance to get) you have:

Janoris Jenkins
Casey Hayward
Trumaine Johnson
Josh Robinson

Go to the next year and look at the CBs that went immediately after the Bengal pick and you have:
Desmond Trufant
Xavier Rhoades
Darrius Slay
Johnathan Banks

How many of them would you take over Dre?

*ahem*

Thanks for the leg work b....the point in all of this is that he can be upgraded, and there's no need to overpay him going forward.  In fact, some might even say we should have let him test the market this year and got him for a discount, freeing up cash for a one or two year gig for Reggie Nelson.  Yeah, it would have been a risk with Leon down, and Dennard STILL an unknown.....but if Dennard can play at this level, would it really be that much of a step back?  Antonio Brown OWNED Dre at Pitt, I mean embarrassed him.  We gotta have people who can cover our division opponents.  As I said, dude is decent, but is he worth the nickels? My opinion, no. Maybe yours is different, and that's fine too.

[Essex Johnson]

(08-03-2016, 05:33 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: What relevance does draft position mean by year #2? If draft position was an exact science no team would ever miss a top 10 pick (which Dre was not) and all top 10 picks would be future HOF players.

It has relevance when a someone posts that Dre is a bust since he was taken in 1st round and is not playing at a high level.  I just showed two years of CB taken ahead of Dre who have not even played at Dre level over the last two years and have been considered subpar or bust level. 

[*bfine32*]

(08-03-2016, 07:24 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: Barron was drafted as a DB for Tampa Bay, they traded him away for 4/6 pick and then he started playing LB.. so yes Barron was a bust at DB.. no way Clairborne had a better year than Dre last year plus he was #7 pick in draft so yes he is a bust so far.. Barron was #7 pick.. so to trade like three years later and get a 4/6 for a previous #7 pick in draft.. that equals did not work out.  My point is some act like all #1 rounders have great success but in reality many do not achieve that level of play.  Dre is not close to a bust... and is still a starter where some of these players are not or are in much worse shape than Dre

I never said Barron wasn't a DB, you were talking CBs (left out Xavier Rhoades BTW) and Barron was never that. Barron moved LB only due to injury. If you want to say Barron is a bust and say Dre is not; that's on you, but don't look surprised if someone suggests you might be biased. Barron has had a better year than Dre every year they've played in the NFL and it's not even been close 3 of the 4 years.

You kind of argue with yourself about draft pick. Claiborne's  a bust but Dre is not because he was chosen earlier, then you go on to say your point is you can't hit on every pick.

I hope Dre has all All-Pro season, but I have not seen anything close to it yet. 

[fredtoast]

(08-03-2016, 03:33 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Would you care to elaberate on Football outsiders non-flawed ranking system?

They use actual statistics.

[*bfine32*]

(08-03-2016, 08:53 PM)fredtoast Wrote: They use actual statistics.

So you're a stats tell the story guy. That's good to know.

Here's the "short" version of them using statistics.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods

They also rely heavily on ESPN and I'm pretty sure they take a lot of stock in that ESPN QBR that you and others love so much.

They are legit. 

[Derrick]

(08-02-2016, 01:43 PM)jason Wrote: No. This is just proving that he isn't the worst in the league. He's just the worst on his team.

I personally never bought into whatever PFF ranked him. My eyeballs just told me that I expected more from him. There's still time I guess.

Maybe he will have the proverbial light bulb moment and do really well this year, or maybe not.

[fredtoast]

(08-03-2016, 06:10 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Claiborne and Dre have almost identical stats in the same amount of time in the NFL, but one's a bust and one's slightly above average.

In 2015 Morris Claiborn ranked 57th in yards per target.  Dre ranked 18th.

Claiborn ranked 63rd in adjusted success rate.  Only 12 qualified CBs were worse.  Dre did not appear in the bottom 20

Claiborn allowed a 54% completion percentage when targeted.  Dre only allowed 48%.

Cliaborn is a bust an Dre is well abpove average.  There is no comaprison between the two.

[*bfine32*]

(08-03-2016, 09:20 PM)fredtoast Wrote: In 2015 Morris Claiborn ranked 57th in yards per target.  Dre ranked 18th.

Claiborn ranked 63rd in adjusted success rate.  Only 12 qualified CBs were worse.  Dre did not appear in the bottom 20

Claiborn allowed a 54% completion percentage when targeted.  Dre only allowed 48%.

Cliaborn is a bust an Dre is well abpove average.  There is no comaprison between the two.

You accidentally forgot to bold in the same amount of time in the NFL and decided to focus on one season out of 4 for some unknown reason. 

Are you using those Legit Football Outsider stats? If you want I can post the actual stats over their careers (we can use those, can't we?)

FWIW, I don't think I have never said either is a bust. Just seemed we were being kinda biased as to who we applied the label to.

[fredtoast]

(08-03-2016, 07:27 PM)Wyche Wrote: *ahem*

Thanks for the leg work b....the point in all of this is that he can be upgraded, and there's no need to overpay him going forward.

How exactly can we upgrade on a top 32 CB for less money than Dre is making?

Where is this upgrade?

[fredtoast]

(08-03-2016, 09:22 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Are you using those Legit Football Outsider stats? If you want I can post the actual stats over their careers (we can use those, can't we?)

Yes.  Please post the career success rate, yards per target, and completion percentage allowed for both of them.

[*bfine32*]

(08-03-2016, 09:30 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Yes.  Please post the career success rate, yards per target, and completion percentage allowed for both of them.

Oh, I though we were using stats. But I see we most consider their "success rate" and other interpreted stats that use formulas to obtain rankings.

This is fun. 

[fredtoast]

(08-03-2016, 09:34 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Oh, I though we were using stats. But I see we most consider their "success rate" and other interpreted stats that use formulas to obtain rankings.

This is fun. 

What is fun about being proven wrong?


If you really think interceptions are the best way to judge a CB you have no clue what you are talking about.  Patrick Peterson only had 2 ints last year.  There were 22 CBs that had more than Peterson.  Do you really think Patrick peterson is not even one of the top 20 CBS in the league?

[fredtoast]

Update. More stats released.

As I predicted Dre also ranked in the top 32 in "success rate"

FootballOutsiders does not rank CBs on "completion percentage allowed, but by looking at the lists I could calculate this stat for 70 of the 75 qualifying CBs. Dre ranked 19th which means that at the absolute worst he would be 24th of 75.

Dre ranked 19th in passes defended.

On the down side he was one of the worst tacklers in the league. Despite finishing 3rd in solo tackles by a CB his percentage of "broken tackles" was 8th worst in the league.

But in just coverage it is clear that he is one of the better CBs in the league....18th in yards allowed per target....19th in passes defended.......19th to 24th in completion% allowed......32nd in success rate.

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(08-03-2016, 09:26 PM)fredtoast Wrote: How exactly can we upgrade on a top 32 CB for less money than Dre is making?

Where is this upgrade?

Ah the virtues of context......

[fredtoast]

(08-04-2016, 05:10 AM)Wyche Wrote: Ah the virtues of context......

So you meant to day that he can be replaced, but not with a player as good as he is?

Because I don't see a single CB available as good as Dre for less money.

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(08-04-2016, 09:03 AM)fredtoast Wrote: So you meant to day that he can be replaced, but not with a player as good as he is?

Because I don't see a single CB available as good as Dre for less money.

Well, I pretty much clarified my thoughts in the post you cherry picked.....maybe he could've even been had for cheaper.  A corner as good or better may even be on the team already, but he is an unknown.  I even added the cons of my scenario. Also, if you're going to cough up that kinda dough for a CB, go pay a better one if you can get him.

[Essex Johnson]

(08-04-2016, 12:01 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Update.  More stats released.

As I predicted Dre also ranked in the top 32 in "success rate"

FootballOutsiders does not rank CBs on "completion percentage allowed, but by looking at the lists I could calculate this stat for 70 of the 75 qualifying CBs.  Dre ranked 19th which means that at the absolute worst he would be 24th of 75.

Dre ranked 19th in passes defended.

On the down side he was one of the worst tacklers in the league.  Despite finishing 3rd in solo tackles by a CB his percentage of "broken tackles" was 8th worst in the league.

But in just coverage it is clear that he is one of the better CBs in the league....18th in yards allowed per target....19th in passes defended.......19th to 24th in completion% allowed......32nd in success rate.

Kudos, You are the research guru and really have cemented the misconception that Dre is a bust or subpar...