Reds get #2 overall pick in 2017 draft

[CJD]

Is anyone else really stoked about this? If we can get a prospect similar to Nick Senzel, a good college player that is being fast tracked to the majors, we could improve really fast in the next 2 to 3 years.

We're already seeing some pretty impressive return from our last few trades in that Duvall is showing he has legitimate MLB power, Schebler showed that he can contend in the majors, Finnegan is proving he can be a #2 or 3 starter, Peraza can hit for average and Herrera seems like he's gearing up to produce for us next season.

If we can trade Cozart for some relief pitching, we may be competitive sooner rather than later.

Does anyone follow college and high school baseball close enough to know if there's a premium college player that could help in the majors in the next few years, like Senzel?

[kevin]

Oh Boy.....in mid summer as Reds sit in last place, Reds will draft more minor league players that may be with the team in 2020 and in their prime in 2025, if we haven't trade them also. ...Oh, I'm so stoked and excited.....Lets face if, the 2017 Reds big deal will be Pete Rose getting an erection. ( his statue ). More ancient history in store for 2017.

[Goalpost]

Early indications are that this draft will be pitching heavy. Some articles have suggested that the top 5 pitchers in this draft would have been drafted ahead of last year's top pitcher. Many of these are college pitchers. The top HS pitcher might be Hunter Greene, who has a very high ceiling.

[PikesPeakUC]

The other added benefit is that the Reds will get more bonus money to spread out over their other picks. It gives them an opportunity to grab someone who may have fallen down the board who wanted a bigger signing bonus. It's definitely a plus as the Reds continue to rebuild their farm system and inject more talent into the organization.

[grampahol]

A lot is going to depend on how the team competes next year. If they stay dead last or close the draft will be a boost down the road, but if they can actually contend this year not so much. Then again there's no guarantees about the draft. Many teams pick high in the draft year after year and never go anywhere.. I'm hoping they've drafted well and are able to develop players well. We'll see.

[SunsetBengal]

(11-19-2016, 05:57 PM)grampahol Wrote: A lot is going to depend on how the team competes next year. If they stay dead last or close the draft will be a boost down the road, but if they can actually contend this year not so much. Then again there's no guarantees about the draft. Many teams pick high in the draft year after year and never go anywhere.. I'm hoping they've drafted well and are able to develop players well. We'll see.

But, the OP was asking who was stoked about the Reds having the #2 pick, in the upcoming draft.

[Bengalsrob]

(11-19-2016, 06:44 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: But, the OP was asking who was stoked about the Reds having the #2 pick, in the upcoming draft.

I am, almost as stoked as I am about the Bengals picking top 5, though that tie will probably end up hurting them. With so many players out there, it's tough to get the "right" guy in baseball, but it's still exciting knowing the team isn't really all that bad sans the pitching. There's another Rose, Larkin, Bench, or Griffey out there someplace!

[grampahol]

Well, am I excited about our draft position? Well, yes and no. Picking high in the draft really means that the team sucks the previous season, but as has happened many times before the best players often come from low in the draft. It's tough to predict what a 17 year old kid is going to play like at 27 and few go from high school to league mvp overnight . That's not to say it never happens ,but i wouldn't bet the farm on catching lightning in a bottle on a consistent basis . 

[Goalpost]

Bump...draft is one week away June 12th

Options seem to be

Kyle Wright...RHP Vanderbilt
Brendan McKay...LHP/1B Louisville
Hunter Greene..RHP/SS consensus top hs player

There have been rumors that Greene wants to play for San Diego and is asking other teams ahead of them not to draft him. He is a legit stud prospect, one of the best hs prospects in awhile. Has home run power and a high nineties fastball.

I'm hearing the Reds like McKay as a pitcher, but he is a high hitting prospect also.

Kyle Wright looks like the top college pitcher.

[SunsetBengal]

(06-05-2017, 05:37 PM)Goalpost Wrote: Bump...draft is one week away June 12th

Options seem to be

Kyle Wright...RHP Vanderbilt
Brendan McKay...LHP/1B Louisville
Hunter Greene..RHP/SS consensus top hs player

There have been rumors that Greene wants to play for San Diego and is asking other teams ahead of them not to draft him.  He is a legit stud prospect, one of the best hs prospects in awhile. Has home run power and a high nineties fastball.

I'm hearing the Reds like McKay as a pitcher, but he is a high hitting prospect also.  

Kyle Wright looks like the top college pitcher.

I don't follow Baseball closely enough to know any of the upcoming prospects.  I will agree that the Reds need pitching, in the worst kind of way.  Too bad that any real prospects will likely take years to develop enough for the big show.

It's a shame that the Reds need pitching so desperately, as the team itself is quite good offensively and defensively.

[CJD]

They need to draft a Mike Leake-esque player.

Round 1 HS players should be reserved for teams with significant help on the way from their minor leagues.

We have maybe 2 pitchers that are within 2 years of the majors and can legitimately compete for a starter role. Mahle and Castillo. Maybe Romano.

Beyond that, we have a lot of mediocre pitching or pitching that is far off enough that they can't be considered at this time.

I really hope we take either McKay or Wright. Bukauskas could work out as well.

McKay is special because he's an MLB (or near MLB ready) Left hander who can start sooner rather than later.

I hope we avoid Greene. We don't need a player who doesn't want to be here.

[Yojimbo]

I'm taking Greene. He's being called a generational prospect. Would be a top 5 pick as a pitcher or a hitter. I'm making him as a pitcher with his average fastball being 96-98 and having hit 102 several times during this season and two other plus pitches. Did I mention he's only 17?

[*ochocincos*]

From what I read, Brendan McKay might have the least elite potential of the top 3 prospects from a pitching standpoint but is considered the safest pitching prospect in the draft. Redsminorleagues.com scouting report compared him to Mike Leake, which would make him a solid #3 in a rotation. McKay is probably the most MLB-ready prospect out of all the pitchers too. Last, he's got a great bat, which does have value even as a pitcher being in the NL. The low 90's fastball is what could cause teams to hold off on him as a pitcher.

Greene has the highest potential, but he's at least a few years away from the Bigs and reportedly doesn't want to play anywhere besides the west coast.

Wright kind of in the middle of Greene and McKay in terms of readiness and potential.

[kevin]

Baseball America Scouts say there are 2 players above all others in the draft.

HUNTER GREENE ...17 years old....draws loose comparisons to Dwight Gooden for how advanced he is on the mound at a young age. This righty pitches in the upper 90 MPH range and sometimes 102 MPH. He is also a shortstop with top of the scale raw power.

BRENDAN McKAY......21 years old.....Elite pure hitting tools as a first baseman but as a left hand pitcher has a 95 MPH fastball and a nasty curve ball.

Since post says Reds Draft #2 then these are the 2 scouts are raving about.

Unlike NFL, In Baseball you looking at minors and maybe majors around 2020 season.

[CJD]

(06-12-2017, 03:48 AM)kevin Wrote: Baseball America Scouts say there are 2 players above all others in the draft.

HUNTER GREENE ...17 years old....draws loose comparisons to Dwight Gooden for how advanced he is on the mound at a young age. This righty pitches in the upper 90 MPH range and sometimes 102 MPH.  He is also a shortstop with top of the scale raw power.  

BRENDAN McKAY......21 years old.....Elite pure hitting tools as a first baseman but as a left hand pitcher has a 95 MPH fastball and a nasty curve ball.

Since post says Reds Draft #2 then these are the 2 scouts are raving about.

Unlike NFL, In Baseball you looking at minors and maybe majors around 2020 season.

I think we end up with one of these two in the end.

I listened to a podcast that had Dick Williams on and he dispelled the myth that Hunter Greene is requesting non west coast teams skip over him. He is convinced that Hunter would be very happy here.

That last sentence of your post really is the bummer of the MLB, isn't it? You draft a guy and, unless they're a Mike Leake level developed prospect, they sit in the minors for years.

Even an advanced bat like Nick Senzel is still at least a year or two away from the Majors (a year after being drafted) and he was considered the most pro ready and developed bat in the entire draft last year.

[CJD]

I know this only means so much to some people but here are the scouting grades for the top 3 players that the Reds will almost certainly be choosing from, from 20 to 80, for each skill. 80: elite of the elite (Billy Hamilton speed is an 80, although if there were a 90, he'd likely be a 90). 70: well above average, 60: above average, 50: average, 40: below average, 30: well below average, 20: basically non existent:

Hunter Greene:
Scouting grades: Fastball: 70 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 55 | Overall: 60
Scouting Grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 55 | Run: 50 | Arm: 65 | Field: 50 | Overall: 55

Brendan McKay:
Scouting grades: Fastball: 55 | Curveball: 60 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 55 | Overall: 60
Scouting grades: Hit: 60 | Power: 50 | Run: 30 | Arm: 60 | Field: 55 | Overall: 60

Kyle Wright:
Scouting grades: Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 55 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 50 | Overall: 60


So, as far as potential goes, McKay has approximately equivalent potential at either pitcher or position player whereas Greene degrades in value if you take him off the mound.

I think McKay is the right choice, personally. He's an extremely safe pick (he's basically the Senzel of this draft) in that he'll almost certainly improve your team in a few years. Whether that is at pitcher or position player is left to be determined by the team that drafts him, but he's got good potential at each position. I prefer him as a pitcher because he doesn't have great position flexibility and we already have Votto at 1B, but that's not a bad thing because he's got good command and 2 plus offerings right now that could develop further. Plus, being an NL team, him having a 60 bat will only help since he'll be in that number 9 spot.

Honestly, I still prefer Wright over Greene simply because he's above average in all 4 pitches with average command and is only a few years from the majors.

If we take Greene, yes, he could become an elite #1 pitcher in about 5 years, but there is a long history of high school right handers flaming out in the minors. ESPECIALLY hard throwing right handers. That is my major concern.

https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/06/06/mlb-draft-high-school-pitchers-velocity

Quote:Of the 92 high school pitchers taken in the first round from 2001 to '10, 32 of them never have pitched one game in the big leagues, a failure rate of 35%.

Another 16 of the high school first-round picks have produced a career WAR below 1.0, which means 48 of the 92 picks made no impact. In other words, teams have been more likely to get almost nothing from a first-round high school pitcher (52%) than anything meaningful.

• The numbers are even more disastrous as you get deeper into the first round. Of the 52 first-round picks taken 21 or higher, 20 never reached the big leagues and another 21 never reached a WAR of 1.0. That’s essentially no return on 79% of a decade’s worth of late first-round picks.

The reward, of course, is hitting on high school pitchers such as Clayton Kershaw, Madison Bumgarner and Rick Porcello. Those are the exceptions.

...
...

In the most symbolic moment of this sea change, the Houston Astros took Stanford pitcher Mark Appel with the first pick of the 2013 draft, leaving San Diego third baseman Kris Bryant for the Cubs. Appel, who was traded to Philadelphia before the 2016 season, has never reached the majors and has a 5.20 ERA in five professional seasons. Bryant has won the Rookie of the Year and MVP awards and is a world champion.

Unfortunately, there really isn't a Kris Bryant in this draft class. The closest is probably Pavin Smith, but he doesn't have nearly the power that Bryant has. He has one of the best hit tools of the college (And perhaps high school) players, but he pairs it with bad legs and limited positional flexibility. And even then, his hit tool isn't as highly graded as McKay's is.
This is why I think McKay is the best pick. He pairs high potential at pitcher and is also, probably, the best overall bat in the draft.
And he's a college arm, so there's less risk that he flames out in the minors.
I dunno man, I just feel like we'd be fools to pass on McKay for Greene.

[Yojimbo]

Damn. Twins took Lewis at #1. Leaves the Reds with a tough choice between the two best prospects, Greene and McKay.

[BenZoo2]

And Greene it is


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[Yojimbo]

And Greene it is! Looking forward to seeing him throw 100+ mph... in a few years.

[Goalpost]

I liked McKay, but Greene was kind of a gift that he didn't goes first overall and we got him.