Head coaching grades for all 32 current HC's

[fredtoast]

(10-17-2016, 05:38 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Stay with me Fred. Once again, the list isn't saying "who's the best coach right now". It's grading their entire careers and overall success. That's it.

Uh, no, that is not it.

The grades in the OP are "per season" not career totals.  

And if it is not trying to say "who is the best coach right now" why does it only include current active coaches?


Just curious, but where do you rank Marvin "right now"?

[GodFather]

(10-17-2016, 05:47 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Just curious, but where do you rank Marvin "right now"?

shit

[Nebuchadnezzar]

Why not score it like this,

Regular Season
1 point for a win
-1 point for a loss

Playoffs
2 points for a win
-1 points for loss

Super Bowl 
3 points for a win
1 point for getting there

Say the Bengals are 12-4 on the season, that gives them 12 points for winning 12 games, minus 4 points for losses giving them 8 points for the season.

They make the playoffs losing the first playoff game subtracting 2 points from the total giving them 6 points for the season.

If they win a playoff game but lose the next game, they will get a total of 9 points on the season.

When the Patriots went 18-1 with the one resulting in the loss to the Giants in the Super Bowl, the Patriots would have accumulated 16 points for the Regular Season, 4 points for the playoffs and 1 point for making it to the Super Bowl giving them 23 total points for the season.

I think the Giants went 10-6 that season and played in the Wildcard game. They would have gotten 4 points for the season, 6 points for the playoffs and 3 points for winning the Super Bowl giving them 13 total points.

The Patriots get more points on the season because going undefeated and making it to the Super Bowl is a crazy hard thing to do.

Just an idea is all.

[JumboTron]

Geez, Shake...see what ya started?

[Shake n Blake]

(10-17-2016, 05:47 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Uh, no, that is not it.

The grades in the OP are "per season" not career totals.  

And if it is not trying to say "who is the best coach right now" why does it only include current active coaches?


Just curious, but where do you rank Marvin "right now"?

Lol...wowzers. The "per season" is an average of their CAREER totals. So yes, it's judging their careers. I thought I explained it pretty well in the OP. The list includes all current coaches because those are the coaches I feel are relevant (duh). I wanted to rank current coaches based on their career success.

Looking over the list, I guess I'd put Marv around 16th. Of the guys ahead of him, I'm not real big on Caldwell, Ryan, Kelly, Bowles or Fisher at this point. But I'd at least think about a swap for Hue, Pederson or maybe McAdoo at this point. All behind Marv on the list. Pederson and McAdoo are promising. Hue has always done good work here. 

[Shake n Blake]

(10-17-2016, 05:50 PM)Nebuchadnezzar Wrote: Why not score it like this,

Regular Season
1 point for a win
-1 point for a loss

Playoffs
2 points for a win
-1 points for loss

Super Bowl 
3 points for a win
1 point for getting there

Say the Bengals are 12-4 on the season, that gives them 12 points for winning 12 games, minus 4 points for losses giving them 8 points for the season.

They make the playoffs losing the first playoff game subtracting 2 points from the total giving them 6 points for the season.

If they win a playoff game but lose the next game, they will get a total of 9 points on the season.

When the Patriots went 18-1 with the one resulting in the loss to the Giants in the Super Bowl, the Patriots would have accumulated 16 points for the Regular Season, 4 points for the playoffs and 1 point for making it to the Super Bowl giving them 23 total points for the season.

I think the Giants went 10-6 that season and played in the Wildcard game. They would have gotten 4 points for the season, 6 points for the playoffs and 3 points for winning the Super Bowl giving them 13 total points.

The Patriots get more points on the season because going undefeated and making it to the Super Bowl is a crazy hard thing to do.

Just an idea is all.

Not bad idears, but IMO a championship should be worth far more than 3 points, which would be 3 regular season wins. I'd also make playoff wins worth more than 2, as the stakes are higher and there are fewer games to rack up points. Championships are remembered forever and their impact on a franchise and city can't be understated. Next time I do this (it'll probably be awhile), I wouldn't mind implementing some of your ideas though, if I decide to change it up. If that's ok with you.

[Night's Watch]

(10-17-2016, 05:38 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: Also known as tied for dead last.  Only you would go to the lengths o to spin a category that has zero in the number as being tied for 18th.

Wtf?

Which also could be debated, if I went to the free throw line and misses 7 straight shots, would you really argue that I am tied with everyone else in the league that has taken 0 shots or 1-2 and missed just because our shooting percentage is all 0.00? The only arugement I see if saying well at least I was good enough to make it to the line 7 times...... oh wait

[*rfaulk34*]

(10-17-2016, 03:43 PM)OrlandoBengal Wrote: I think this is true in many circumstances though.  What about Bill Walsh without Montana?

Yep. Same sitch. 

Too bad i'll never have the privilege to experience it with my team. 

[*rfaulk34*]

(10-17-2016, 06:06 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Not bad idears, but IMO a championship should be worth far more than 3 points, which would be 3 regular season wins. I'd also make playoff wins worth more than 2, as the stakes are higher and there are fewer games to rack up points. Championships are remembered forever and their impact on a franchise and city can't be understated. Next time I do this (it'll probably be awhile), I wouldn't mind implementing some of your ideas though, if I decide to change it up. If that's ok with you.

It doesn't matter what multipliers you use, marv will come about about the same regardless.

[Shake n Blake]

(10-17-2016, 09:18 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: It doesn't matter what multipliers you use, marv will come about about the same regardless.

True, and this is why we'll probably never see Fred make a system.

[Hammerstripes]

(10-14-2016, 03:30 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: The 8-8 division champ (pretty rare if we're honest) likely won their key division matchups in order to take the division. They would deserve credit for that. 

Key division matchups against teams that are 6-10, 7-9, 5-11..

Why does that deserve any credit?

[Shake n Blake]

(10-18-2016, 01:29 AM)Hammerstripes Wrote: Key division matchups against teams that are 6-10, 7-9, 5-11..

Why does that deserve any credit?

Simple. Divisional games are usually the toughest games regardless of opponent's record. 

[Bengalholic]

(10-17-2016, 05:43 PM)fredtoast Wrote: No spin.  Just logic.

The only way to rank a coach is to look at how many are in front of him.

I think Shake's ranking system is as fair as any other that I've seen. I also think he did a good job of placing importance on postseason success. Going back to the old board, I know you and some others have placed a great value on what Marvin has accomplished in the regular season, while not placing quite the same type of weight on the playoff debacles.

However, to truly evaluate Marvin, there is simply no way you can't factor in the playoff failures and the importance of them.  To demonstrate just how glaring, and incredibly improbable, losing 7 times in 7 opportunities is, just look at how he stacks up, or fails to, in terms of NFL historical comparisons:

Head coaches who had 10 or more years on the job: 67

Only Marvin (0-7), Mora (0-6), Jauron (0-1), and Kuharich/Van Brocklin (0-0) have failed to win a single playoff game.
55 of the 67 have won at least 2 playoff games.

Head coaches who had 13 or more years on the job: 37

34 of the 37 won at least 1 playoff game, while 32 have won 2 or more.

Head coaches that had 7 or more playoff appearances: 53

Marvin is the only member to have not won at least 2 playoff games. 
50 members of this group won at least 3 playoff games.

Head coaches that had 7 or more playoff losses: 24

19 have 7 or more playoff wins, and Marvin is the only member without at least 2 playoff wins.

Head coaches that appeared exactly 7 playoff games: 8

7 of this group won 3 or more playoff wins in their 7 tries.

Head coaches that had 10 or more years and 5 or more playoff appearances: 54

Marvin is one of only 5 in this group without 2 or more playoff wins.

Head coaches that appeared in 5 or more playoff games: 81

79 have won at least one playoff game. Only Marvin and Mora failed to do so.
74 have won at least 2 playoffs games. 58 have won at least 3 playoff games.

These numbers aren't spin or opinion...they are the product of a HC who has proven, at least to this point, that he simply isn't capable of succeeding on the biggest stage. It isn't just that he's failed in the playoffs, it's the fact that he has done it in such a record setting fashion.

[*wildcats forever*]

(10-18-2016, 06:37 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: I think Shake's ranking system is as fair as any other that I've seen. I also think he did a good job of placing importance on postseason success. Going back to the old board, I know you and some others have placed a great value on what Marvin has accomplished in the regular season, while not placing quite the same type of weight on the playoff debacles.

However, to truly evaluate Marvin, there is simply no way you can't factor in the playoff failures and the importance of them.  To demonstrate just how glaring, and incredibly improbable, losing 7 times in 7 opportunities is, just look at how he stacks up, or fails to, in terms of NFL historical comparisons:

Head coaches who had 10 or more years on the job: 67

Only Marvin (0-7), Mora (0-6), Jauron (0-1), and Kuharich/Van Brocklin (0-0) have failed to win a single playoff game.
55 of the 67 have won at least 2 playoff games.

Head coaches who had 13 or more years on the job: 37

34 of the 37 won at least 1 playoff game, while 32 have won 2 or more.

Head coaches that had 7 or more playoff appearances: 53

Marvin is the only member to have not won at least 2 playoff games. 
50 members of this group won at least 3 playoff games.

Head coaches that had 7 or more playoff losses: 24

19 have 7 or more playoff wins, and Marvin is the only member without at least 2 playoff wins.

Head coaches that appeared exactly 7 playoff games: 8

7 of this group won 3 or more playoff wins in their 7 tries.

Head coaches that had 10 or more years and 5 or more playoff appearances: 54

Marvin is one of only 5 in this group without 2 or more playoff wins.

Head coaches that appeared in 5 or more playoff games: 81

79 have won at least one playoff game. Only Marvin and Mora failed to do so.
74 have won at least 2 playoffs games. 58 have won at least 3 playoff games.

These numbers aren't spin or opinion...they are the product of a HC who has proven, at least to this point, that he simply isn't capable of succeeding on the biggest stage. It isn't just that he's failed in the playoffs, it's the fact that he has done it in such a record setting fashion.

Yes, that was the sound of a microphone dropping .....

[Shake n Blake]

UPDATED RANKINGS WITH NEW COACHES:

^ means the coach moved up in ranking
v means the coach moved down
= means they stayed the same, obviously


= 1. Bill Belichick: +31.6 (22 seasons with Browns, Pats)
^ 2. Mike McCarthy: +22.2 (11 seasons)
^ 3. Mike Tomlin: +21.7 (9 seasons)
v 4. John Harbaugh: +21.0 (9 seasons)
^ 5. Pete Carroll: +19.8 (11 seasons with Jets, Pats, Seahawks)
^ 6. Dan Quinn: +17.5 (2 seasons)
v 7. Chuck Pagano: +15.0 (4 seasons)
v 8. Sean Payton: +14.9 (9 seasons)
^ 9. Andy Reid: +13.1 (18 seasons with Eagles, Chiefs)
^ 10. Bill O'Brien: +13.0 (3 seasons)
^ 11. John Fox: +10.1 (15 seasons with Panthers, Broncos, Bears)
v t12. Bruce Arians: +10.0 (5 seasons with Colts, Cardinals)
v t12. Ron Rivera: +10.0 (5 seasons)
v 14. Jim Caldwell: +8.3 (6 seasons with Colts, Lions)
^ 15. Jason Garrett: +6.3 (6 seasons)
^ t16. Adam Gase: +5.0 (1 season)
^ t16. Ben McAdoo: +5.0 (1 season)
v 18. Mike Zimmer: +4.0 (3 seasons)
^ 19. Marvin Lewis: +3.4 (14 seasons) *up one spot
^ 20. Dirk Koetter: +3.0 (1 season)
^ 21. Jay Gruden: +1.7 (3 seasons)
^ 22. Jack Del Rio: +1.6 (13 seasons with Jags, Raiders)
v 23. Todd Bowles: 0.0 (2 seasons)
t24. Kyle Shannahan (no experience)
t24. Anthony Lynn (no experience
t24. Sean McVay (no experience)
t24. Vance Joseph (no experience)
t24. Sean McDermott (no experience)
29. Doug Marrone -1.0 (2 seasons)
^ 30. Mike Mularky: -1.8 (4 seasons with Bills, Jags, Titans)
31. Doug Pederson: -3.0 (1 season)
v 32. Hue Jackson: -4.0 (2 seasons)
_________________

Replaced coaches who didn't get another HC gig:

Gary Kubiak: +12.9 (10 seasons with Texans, Broncos) *retired
Rex Ryan: +4.0 (8 seasons with Jets, Bills)
Jeff Fisher: +3.6 (21 seasons with Titans, Rams)
Chip Kelly: +1.8 (4 seasons with Eagles, 49ers)
Mike McCoy: +0.8 (4 seasons)
Gus Bradley: -7.3 (4 seasons)

(Old) Notes:

- This is not a ranking of who is the better coach, it's only meant to judge past success.
- I gave Arians credit for the 2012 Colts, when he coached 12 games with Pagano out.
- keep in mind that Marv's first 8 seasons featured as many 4 win seasons as playoff berths. That hurt his grade, but it happened.

Explanation of grading:

A few years ago - in response to a certain poster who claimed that Marvin Lewis was one of the most successful coaches - I created a grading system to compare Marv's entire tenure to how the rest of the teams fared over the same stretch. I graded each season and added all the points together. The grading system looked like this:

+8 points for 12-16 regular season wins
+5 points for 10-11 wins
+3 for a 9-7 season
0 points for 8-8
-3 for a 7-9 season
-5 for 5-6 wins
-8 for 4 or fewer wins

I added the following bonuses:

+10 for a division title
+10 for each playoff win
+50 for a Super Bowl title

For example, Marv accumulated +18 points in without winning a playoff game, while he got a -5 grade for 2016. A 9-7 team that fails to win it's division, but wins 1 playoff game would accumulate a +13 score. Championship teams usually rack up a +85 score or higher. Not a perfect system, but IMO it's fair. Obviously if you make a deep playoff run or win a title, you should be heavily rewarded. You can also rack up points by winning in regular season and capturing division titles.

This time around, I figured I'd finally take Berserker's advice, and make it more of a coach to coach comparison. In order to do this, I graded every single season by every single current Head Coach. Fortunately, Pro Football Reference has all the information I needed on each coach's page, as it made accumulating the grades go much faster. In order to make the grades fair for comparison, I took each coach's total career points and divided them by total years coached. So the grades are a per season average.

[Housh]

(10-14-2016, 04:13 PM)Earendil Wrote: I'm honestly surprised Marvin isn't lower.

Well his coaching career has been the exact depiction of mediocre. This is where I guessed hed be given the parameters the OP put out.

Great work finding all this information out to the OP


But one thing you have to see very quickly when analyzing these numbers is that every coach below Lewis is inexperienced except Del Rio but at least hes been on plenty of teams.



What we are seeing with the Bengals and Lewis has NEVER happened in pro sports ever. The ACCEPTED mediocrity is unprecedented.

[Housh]

(10-18-2016, 06:37 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: I think Shake's ranking system is as fair as any other that I've seen. I also think he did a good job of placing importance on postseason success. Going back to the old board, I know you and some others have placed a great value on what Marvin has accomplished in the regular season, while not placing quite the same type of weight on the playoff debacles.

However, to truly evaluate Marvin, there is simply no way you can't factor in the playoff failures and the importance of them.  To demonstrate just how glaring, and incredibly improbable, losing 7 times in 7 opportunities is, just look at how he stacks up, or fails to, in terms of NFL historical comparisons:

Head coaches who had 10 or more years on the job: 67

Only Marvin (0-7), Mora (0-6), Jauron (0-1), and Kuharich/Van Brocklin (0-0) have failed to win a single playoff game.
55 of the 67 have won at least 2 playoff games.

Head coaches who had 13 or more years on the job: 37

34 of the 37 won at least 1 playoff game, while 32 have won 2 or more.

Head coaches that had 7 or more playoff appearances: 53

Marvin is the only member to have not won at least 2 playoff games. 
50 members of this group won at least 3 playoff games.

Head coaches that had 7 or more playoff losses: 24

19 have 7 or more playoff wins, and Marvin is the only member without at least 2 playoff wins.

Head coaches that appeared exactly 7 playoff games: 8

7 of this group won 3 or more playoff wins in their 7 tries.

Head coaches that had 10 or more years and 5 or more playoff appearances: 54

Marvin is one of only 5 in this group without 2 or more playoff wins.

Head coaches that appeared in 5 or more playoff games: 81

79 have won at least one playoff game. Only Marvin and Mora failed to do so.
74 have won at least 2 playoffs games. 58 have won at least 3 playoff games.

These numbers aren't spin or opinion...they are the product of a HC who has proven, at least to this point, that he simply isn't capable of succeeding on the biggest stage. It isn't just that he's failed in the playoffs, it's the fact that he has done it in such a record setting fashion.

I keep telling people. This level of mediocrity has NEVER EVER been allowed to happen in sports. Its like Mike and Marvin are father and son

[Bengalholic]

(03-18-2017, 05:15 PM)Housh Wrote: I keep telling people. This level of mediocrity has NEVER EVER been allowed to happen in sports. Its like Mike and Marvin are father and son

Yeah, when you look at the playoff failures from a historical perspective, in direct comparison with other head coaches, it's truly mind-boggling.

[bengals67]

(10-14-2016, 04:13 PM)Earendil Wrote: I'm honestly surprised Marvin isn't lower.

very true if you only looked at playoff games, rivalry games with main rival, prime time, or games against teams with over .500 records.

we have seen 15 years of Bengals losing when they are under the bright lights or pressure of playoffs or games against the better franchises.

[fredtoast]

During the Marvin Lewis era the Bengals rank #6 in wins against teams that had a winning record for the season and his winning percentage against those teams is #11 in the league.

You want to bash coaches for having a poor record against winning teams? Then you are going to be bashing a lot of good coaches. Since Marvin became coach of the Bengals only 3 teams in the entire league have a winning record against teams that finnished with a winning record.